There is a 'real' risk of miscalculation in US-Iran tensions, expert says
The U.S. also evacuated hundreds of diplomatic personnel from Iraq due to worries about threats from Iran.
Another aspect of this is that US-Iran tensions have the effect of boosting Chinese-Iranian relations.
Who Wins When U.S.-Iran Tensions Rise? China
Russia has also had historical ties with Iran. We could have some serious trouble if things escalate with Iran.
As U.S.-Iran tensions continue to escalate, there is rising fear among experts and government officials that a conflict between the two countries may break out.
According to Henry Rome, a global macro and Iran analyst at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, the risk of miscalculation by Washington and Tehran is “real.”
“If the U.S. and Iran were to end up in conflict in the near future, it will be because of a miscalculation or a misperception,” he told CNBC.
While President Donald Trump and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have both said they are not interested in war, Rome said Thursday that “history has shown us that many, many times that even two states — uninterested in armed confrontation — can be drawn into it based on accidents, misperceptions or other provocations.”
The U.S. also evacuated hundreds of diplomatic personnel from Iraq due to worries about threats from Iran.
Another aspect of this is that US-Iran tensions have the effect of boosting Chinese-Iranian relations.
Who Wins When U.S.-Iran Tensions Rise? China
China’s leaders may be anxious about the emerging trade war with the United States, but at least something is going their way: U.S. policy toward Iran is furthering their strategic interests.
Of the several “comprehensive strategic partnerships” that Beijing has struck in the Middle East, the Sino-Iranian one is the most comprehensive and the most strategic. China has established similar close ties with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, but Iran represents a contrarian’s bet and a vital hedge for China.
One reason the Iranian relationship serves China so well is that it is not a relationship of equals. China is Iran’s largest trading partner, supplying and consuming more than 30 percent of the latter’s imports and exports. The converse is not true at all: Iran represents less than one percent of China’s international trade. Iran needs China, but to China, Iran is expendable.
But part of Iran’s value to China arises because of U.S.-Iranian tensions, and heightened tensions increase that value.
Russia has also had historical ties with Iran. We could have some serious trouble if things escalate with Iran.