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US - Iran tensions on the rise

Stevicus

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
There is a 'real' risk of miscalculation in US-Iran tensions, expert says

As U.S.-Iran tensions continue to escalate, there is rising fear among experts and government officials that a conflict between the two countries may break out.

According to Henry Rome, a global macro and Iran analyst at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, the risk of miscalculation by Washington and Tehran is “real.”


“If the U.S. and Iran were to end up in conflict in the near future, it will be because of a miscalculation or a misperception,” he told CNBC.

While President Donald Trump and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have both said they are not interested in war, Rome said Thursday that “history has shown us that many, many times that even two states — uninterested in armed confrontation — can be drawn into it based on accidents, misperceptions or other provocations.”

The U.S. also evacuated hundreds of diplomatic personnel from Iraq due to worries about threats from Iran.

Another aspect of this is that US-Iran tensions have the effect of boosting Chinese-Iranian relations.

Who Wins When U.S.-Iran Tensions Rise? China

China’s leaders may be anxious about the emerging trade war with the United States, but at least something is going their way: U.S. policy toward Iran is furthering their strategic interests.

Of the several “comprehensive strategic partnerships” that Beijing has struck in the Middle East, the Sino-Iranian one is the most comprehensive and the most strategic. China has established similar close ties with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, but Iran represents a contrarian’s bet and a vital hedge for China.

One reason the Iranian relationship serves China so well is that it is not a relationship of equals. China is Iran’s largest trading partner, supplying and consuming more than 30 percent of the latter’s imports and exports. The converse is not true at all: Iran represents less than one percent of China’s international trade. Iran needs China, but to China, Iran is expendable.

But part of Iran’s value to China arises because of U.S.-Iranian tensions, and heightened tensions increase that value.

Russia has also had historical ties with Iran. We could have some serious trouble if things escalate with Iran.
 

sooda

Veteran Member
thumbmaker.php
 

metis

aged ecumenical anthropologist
A British Star General says they have no evidence that Iran has been doing anything different to warrant this saber-rattling hype from the Trump camp. Bolton has stated he wanted to bomb Iran, but even Trump seems to now be backing off.

Simply put, I don't trust Trump or Bolton as they could just be using this as a way to garner support through a crisis that they themselves create. And backing away from the Iranian Agreement was dumb and reckless, which is why the other signatories haven't left it.
 

Stevicus

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
A British Star General says they have no evidence that Iran has been doing anything different to warrant this saber-rattling hype from the Trump camp. Bolton has stated he wanted to bomb Iran, but even Trump seems to now be backing off.

Simply put, I don't trust Trump or Bolton as they could just be using this as a way to garner support through a crisis that they themselves create. And backing away from the Iranian Agreement was dumb and reckless, which is why the other signatories haven't left it.

They said that their source of information (regarding increased threats from Iran) was from "intelligence," but they never really elaborate. Of course, they can't tell anyone how they determined this, since that would compromise security.

That's the thing about intelligence. It requires too much blind trust with very little public scrutiny of whatever evidence they might have.
 

Lyndon

"Peace is the answer" quote: GOD, 2014
Premium Member
my guess is there's nothing "intelligent" about it!!
 

Brickjectivity

Turned to Stone. Now I stretch daily.
Staff member
Premium Member
There is a 'real' risk of miscalculation in US-Iran tensions, expert says



The U.S. also evacuated hundreds of diplomatic personnel from Iraq due to worries about threats from Iran.

Another aspect of this is that US-Iran tensions have the effect of boosting Chinese-Iranian relations.

Who Wins When U.S.-Iran Tensions Rise? China



Russia has also had historical ties with Iran. We could have some serious trouble if things escalate with Iran.
Another way of looking at this is that it represents an opportunity for us to be less involved, and honestly that might be for the best.
 

sooda

Veteran Member
Another way of looking at this is that it represents an opportunity for us to be less involved, and honestly that might be for the best.

That may not be an option.. Israel is still punching above their weight and Iran is still trying to take control of Socotra and the Bab al Mandab.
 

Left Coast

This Is Water
Staff member
Premium Member
A British Star General says they have no evidence that Iran has been doing anything different to warrant this saber-rattling hype from the Trump camp. Bolton has stated he wanted to bomb Iran, but even Trump seems to now be backing off.

Simply put, I don't trust Trump or Bolton as they could just be using this as a way to garner support through a crisis that they themselves create. And backing away from the Iranian Agreement was dumb and reckless, which is why the other signatories haven't left it.
Is there significance to the color coding of the map? I can't tell, though I'm viewing this on my phone so I'm wondering if I can't see a key or something.
 

metis

aged ecumenical anthropologist
Is there significance to the color coding of the map? I can't tell, though I'm viewing this on my phone so I'm wondering if I can't see a key or something.
It's just to show the different regions, and "Socotra" is the island east southeast of the land mass, and it's in the Arabian Sea.
 

Left Coast

This Is Water
Staff member
Premium Member
It's just to show the different regions, and "Socotra" is the island east southeast of the land mass, and it's in the Arabian Sea.
Sorry, I meant the map of all of Asia, not the Yemeni one. The colors dont seem correlated to regions there.
 

Stevicus

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
That should be "she".
Are you so old now that you can't tell the standers from the sitters?

It's an understandable mistake, considering that Sooda is one of those names which can be either male or female, just like Leslie or Kim.
 
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