Consider the Fermi paradox, i.e., the "absence of recordable life in cosmos,
while the abiogenesis has to happen.'' The official point of view is that the
Fermi paradox not only exists but is unsolved yet. Romantic people look at
night at star systems and think that the sky is full of life because the
chance for Earth to get alive was the same as the chance for any suitable
planet to bloom with living organisms. It is a romantic delusion. The Earth is
alive, and Mars is dead only because the people are born on Earth. Consider
ten planets suitable for life. The Earth and Mars are among them. The current
time is 4 000 000 000 BC. If it is given that there will be one single living
planet in this group of worlds with a probability of 30 %, then the
likelihood that the Earth gets alive is exactly this 30 %, as the humans must
be exactly there, where the life has begun. But Mars has not this advantage;
hence, the probability of Mars getting life is (1/10)*30 %=3 %. The
difference between 3 % and 30 % is explained by Luck. I have written a
solution to the Fermi Paradox because the famous Drake equation uses the wrong
value for a planet's probability to get a life. The latter was equated to 100 \%.
But I tell you that the actual figure is noticeably less; in the above
argument, it is less than 3 % even for a planet perfectly suitable to start
life.
https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.12946.73923
We can discuss the new whereabouts about aliens, but please give me credit and honor for solution of the specific problem: Fermi Paradox. Let me feel good, at least one sec.