kai
ragamuffin
how can you "go after them " without engaging Taliban they are sheltered and endorsed by Taliban in Taliban controlled areas .
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What will happen if US/British/Nato forces lose in Afghanistan?
- Thread starter sandandfoam
- Start date
how can you "go after them " without engaging Taliban they are sheltered and endorsed by Taliban in Taliban controlled areas .
kai
ragamuffin
Read:
Tomgram: Ann Jones, Us or Them in Afghanistan?_
There is a lot of good reportage from Afghanistan, by people who live there, speak the languages, understand the culture. You just have to find it.
Don't take your impressions from American network TV news or mainline newspapers.
kai
ragamuffin
I don't take my impressions from American TV, i can assure you. most people assist the Taliban because we cant protect them, They would rather see us succeed that a resurgent Taliban Regime which they despise but they are too afraid and know that we are to few to keep the Taliban at bay for good. At the end of the day its a life or death issue you have to make when we walk out of the area and the Taliban walk in.
The Afghans have hated the Taliban and Alqueda for years and hope that we could help them, unfortunately we have not taken it seriously enough and now they don't really believe we can help them at all, and the Taliban will be back. and if we don't take it seriously the Taliban will be back and Afghanistan will be back to a pre 9/11 state all the more emboldened by their victory, and Alqueda will be right there amongst them in the victory celebrations.
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Terrywoodenpic
Oldest Heretic
The Afghans have been fighting the British on and off since 1839
Since then they have fought about every neighboring country more or less continuously
See... Timeline of Afghanistan - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Afghanistan as a country is strategically important and the Tali-ban and terrorist link is only a symptom.
No one has ever won a peace in Afghanistan that has lasted.
No one is likely to do so on this occasion either.
The best result ever achieved in these situations, is to influence some sort of political change.
How this change will be perceived by the Afghans and us is open to question, but the certainty is that it will not be permanent.
We need to plan an exit strategy that does not entail our complete humiliation.
This will be very difficult to achieve...
However it ends, will be claimed as a victory by all sides.
Since then they have fought about every neighboring country more or less continuously
See... Timeline of Afghanistan - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Afghanistan as a country is strategically important and the Tali-ban and terrorist link is only a symptom.
No one has ever won a peace in Afghanistan that has lasted.
No one is likely to do so on this occasion either.
The best result ever achieved in these situations, is to influence some sort of political change.
How this change will be perceived by the Afghans and us is open to question, but the certainty is that it will not be permanent.
We need to plan an exit strategy that does not entail our complete humiliation.
This will be very difficult to achieve...
However it ends, will be claimed as a victory by all sides.
If we were to withdraw the Afghans will suffer more than before as there would be reprisals by the Taleban,not only that but the Taleban will gain more strength in Pakistan who's Government is so impotent and corrupt that one could forsee the Taleban getting hold of Nuclear weapons in time.
Scarlett Wampus
psychonaut
I completely agree with Terrywoodenpic. Because of its proximity to China, Russia and Iran it is strategically of high importance. Its potential usefulness to US energy future as a place to lay down oil pipeline is also very significant. If we'd simply been after Al-Qaida we would have hit them through the intelligence network like we do with almost all terrorist threats.
So many people have died, had their lives destroyed, been filled with hate & trauma - all for lies, stupidity and hubris. As for taking our objectives seriously, i.e. realistically, we're not going to do that because our mission statement was a bad joke to begin with. Its disgusting! Its shameful! The only way we'd "win" now would be to fully invade and change the political & social structure of Afghanistan so its a colony state.
A pre 9/11 state? Afghans and Pakistanis now have much more reason than ever to hate us and there has been a worldwide inflamation of resentment over Iraq, Afghanistan and the farcical war on terror. All this could have been avoided if we'd gone after Al Qaida properly.
So many people have died, had their lives destroyed, been filled with hate & trauma - all for lies, stupidity and hubris. As for taking our objectives seriously, i.e. realistically, we're not going to do that because our mission statement was a bad joke to begin with. Its disgusting! Its shameful! The only way we'd "win" now would be to fully invade and change the political & social structure of Afghanistan so its a colony state.
Scarlett Wampus
psychonaut
There already are reprisals by the Taleban, ongoing all the time. As for Pakistan why has the government become so unstable? Resentment amongst the people over Afghanistan and Iraq. When you jab at a wound until it becomes an enormous bleeding sore you should take that as a sign to stop!
To avoid nukes ending up in the hands of forces crazy enough to try using them against the US or allies the two options are 1) Invade Pakistan and disarm them, 2) Rely on international trade, diplomacy & espionage to weaken the threat.
Pakistan is afraid of a power vacum in Afghanistan which is why ISI Pakistans intelligence service supports the Taleban with money weapons and ammunition,some have described the ISI as a state within a state,it decides which Government is elected and uses US financial aid for these purposes.
This is where the Taleban gets their intelligence from amongst other things,so if we were to pull out there are obvious consequences for the people of Afghanistan but there are even worse consequences for the whole region,if we pull out India may step in which would mean conflict with Pakistan and we all know how that could end up so a withdrawal isn't really an option.
This is where the Taleban gets their intelligence from amongst other things,so if we were to pull out there are obvious consequences for the people of Afghanistan but there are even worse consequences for the whole region,if we pull out India may step in which would mean conflict with Pakistan and we all know how that could end up so a withdrawal isn't really an option.
Scarlett Wampus
psychonaut
There are only tough options left.
Say if we didn't withdraw, what could we hope to achieve now?
Say if we didn't withdraw, what could we hope to achieve now?
Pakistan is a mess and diplomacy on its own without leverage would be useless,even worse who do you negotiate with,the corrupt Government the intelligence service or the Army that has killed a lot of people in retribution for its losses in the Swat valley.
Pakistan has huge problems
BANNU, Pakistan, Sept 24 (Reuters) - Pakistani Taliban killed 11 pro-government militiamen on Thursday in a fresh outburst of violence in the northwest, security officials said.
The Pakistani military has made gains against Islamist militant fighters in recent months after Taliban advances raised fears for the nuclear-armed country's stability.
Militant attacks have tapered off following the death of the Pakistani Taliban chief in a U.S. drone missile attack last month and after military gains in an offensive in the Swat region in April.
But security officials say the Pakistani Taliban and their al Qaeda allies still pose a serious threat.
Militants attacked members of a pro-government militia on their way to the town of Bannu, 240 km (150 miles) southwest of Islamabad, killing seven, including three ethnic Pashtun tribal chiefs, residents and security officials said. "The militants then fired on tribesmen who were collecting the bodies and killed another two, while two more were killed in clashes with militants later," said an intelligence agency official in the region, who declined to be identified.
BANNU, Pakistan, Sept 24 (Reuters) - Pakistani Taliban killed 11 pro-government militiamen on Thursday in a fresh outburst of violence in the northwest, security officials said.
The Pakistani military has made gains against Islamist militant fighters in recent months after Taliban advances raised fears for the nuclear-armed country's stability.
Militant attacks have tapered off following the death of the Pakistani Taliban chief in a U.S. drone missile attack last month and after military gains in an offensive in the Swat region in April.
But security officials say the Pakistani Taliban and their al Qaeda allies still pose a serious threat.
Militants attacked members of a pro-government militia on their way to the town of Bannu, 240 km (150 miles) southwest of Islamabad, killing seven, including three ethnic Pashtun tribal chiefs, residents and security officials said. "The militants then fired on tribesmen who were collecting the bodies and killed another two, while two more were killed in clashes with militants later," said an intelligence agency official in the region, who declined to be identified.
II agree only tough options are left and if we don't withraw we must change tactics,we must take and hold positions instead of patrols hit by roadside bombs a fire fight and then an airstrike then back to base.
We can achieve something but we must have more Soldiers and as much aid as possible getting to the people of Afghanistan,on the military side of things the rest of Europe should contribute more.
Scarlett Wampus
psychonaut
Perhaps, perhaps...
If that were to happen maybe it would work out better. Getting a lot of cognitive dissonance now.
Dunemeister
Well-Known Member
In short, there's no reason to think the Taliban will win if we leave. Other forces may well win out over the Taliban. Indeed, if we leave, local opposition to the Taliban may win out; but every time NATO kills a civilian, the Taliban gain more legitimacy. Second, there's no link between the Al Qaeda cells that attacked the US and the Taliban in Afghanistan. None. So we are literally attacking a group that was not involved. Third, NATO simply doesn't have the stomach for this anymore, so the US will be completely alone. Fourth, even if we win, we will be supporting a bunch of corrupt drug smugglers and murderers whose democratic ambitions are mere show. Fifth, we simply CAN'T win. And even if we could, the benefit doesn't match the price.
Alceste
Vagabond
This is all I'm seeing here: "We CAN'T win" vs. "We MUST win".
Hypothetically, suppose both statements are equally true? What then? Endless war?
I say hypothetically because "must" is not on par with "can't". Our desire to accomplish a task rests squarely in the realm of the imagination, while our ability is unfortunately subject to the limitations of reality.
Hypothetically, suppose both statements are equally true? What then? Endless war?
I say hypothetically because "must" is not on par with "can't". Our desire to accomplish a task rests squarely in the realm of the imagination, while our ability is unfortunately subject to the limitations of reality.
Alceste
Vagabond
Dream on. This (the whole M.E. fiasco, not just Afghanistan) is the mess of the US and the UK. "The rest of Europe", and your NATO allies and the United Nations, tried to talk some sense into you both before you squandered all your resources and legitimacy in Iraq. You can't expect them to volunteer to be saddled with a greater share of the bill in Afghanistan now that you can't afford to pay it.
I agree its a mess because we virtually created the Taleban but its a mess for us all if the Taleban carry on gaining strength in Pakistan,people seem to forget that they are not Afghanis and as for tax i'd rather pay double and put some maximum effort into doing the job properly.
Yes its a tough one
Alceste
Vagabond
The Taliban are Pashtun tribespeople from the region spanning Southern Afghanistan and Western Pakistan, augmented by large numbers of new recruits from the Afghan populance whose lives or livelihoods have been destroyed by NATO forces, as well as a handful of sympathetic Islamists from other countries. Where do you think they're from?