What will happen if US/British/Nato forces lose in Afghanistan?

[England my lionheart]

The Taliban are Pashtun tribespeople from the region spanning Southern Afghanistan and Western Pakistan, augmented by large numbers of new recruits from the Afghan populance whose lives or livelihoods have been destroyed by NATO forces, as well as a handful of sympathetic Islamists from other countries. Where do you think they're from?

The leadership is Pushtun but the fighters come from all over and are bound together by the Wahabi sect of Islam,i notice you blame NATO for much but do not condemn the Taleban i guess you think they are ok then

 

[Alceste]

The leadership is Pushtun but the fighters come from all over and are bound together by the Wahabi sect of Islam,i notice you blame NATO for much but do not condemn the Taleban i guess you think they are ok then

I think that if Afghan men and boys are signing up en masse to fight for the Taleban instead of NATO, there must be a reason for it.

 

[England my lionheart]

I think that if Afghan men and boys are signing up en masse to fight for the Taleban instead of NATO, there must be a reason for it.

Do you have sources

 

[Alceste]

Do you have sources

The Bundeswehr's Afghan Nightmare: How the Taliban Are Taking Control of Kunduz - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

four weeks ago, Gul's life was turned upside down. As he was driving home to the village of Chawkandi, 20 minutes by car from downtown Kunduz, Gul was stopped by half a dozen men on motorcycles. They were members of the Taliban and warned him that they would kill if he didn't quit his job with the foreigners.


He recognized residents of his village among the group of Taliban, men his age and younger. A few days later, Gul was stopped again. This time the Taliban destroyed the music cassette in his car stereo. "This is your last chance," they said threateningly.

Gul was so afraid that he quit his job. But now he doesn't know what to do with himself, and he spends most of his time walking around aimlessly in the city. "Anyone who works for the foreigners is punished with death, and the same applies to those working for the government. How am I supposed to make a living?" he asks, shrugging his shoulders. "Maybe I'll join the Taliban soon."

The police patrol the streets by day, and the Taliban are in control at night, says Muallim Kabir, an elderly man with a long white beard and a mustard-colored turban.

Kabir is a Pashtun and a member of several village councils. He says that he plans to bide his time to see who gains the upper hand -- the government and the foreign troops, or the Taliban. In the end, he says, he doesn't want to be on the side of the losers. In a country like Afghanistan, that's a dangerous place to be.

Seyorni's article posted upthread has further information.

 

[kai]

I completely agree with Terrywoodenpic. Because of its proximity to China, Russia and Iran it is strategically of high importance. Its potential usefulness to US energy future as a place to lay down oil pipeline is also very significant. If we'd simply been after Al-Qaida we would have hit them through the intelligence network like we do with almost all terrorist threats.


A pre 9/11 state? Afghans and Pakistanis now have much more reason than ever to hate us and there has been a worldwide inflamation of resentment over Iraq, Afghanistan and the farcical war on terror. All this could have been avoided if we'd gone after Al Qaida properly.

So many people have died, had their lives destroyed, been filled with hate & trauma - all for lies, stupidity and hubris. As for taking our objectives seriously, i.e. realistically, we're not going to do that because our mission statement was a bad joke to begin with. Its disgusting! Its shameful! The only way we'd "win" now would be to fully invade and change the political & social structure of Afghanistan so its a colony state.

explain how you would "go after" Alqueda "properly" without engaging Taliban.

 

[kai]

The Taliban are Pashtun tribespeople from the region spanning Southern Afghanistan and Western Pakistan, augmented by large numbers of new recruits from the Afghan populance whose lives or livelihoods have been destroyed by NATO forces, as well as a handful of sympathetic Islamists from other countries. Where do you think they're from?

where do you get your facts from?

 

[kai]

The Bundeswehr's Afghan Nightmare: How the Taliban Are Taking Control of Kunduz - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International





Seyorni's article posted upthread has further information.

so now your saying people are joining the Taliban because they are winning?






now heres one dam good reason the Taliban are resurgent.

The Bundeswehr must now come to terms with a fact that Germans have previously found difficult to accept: Winning the war in Afghanistan requires engaging in active combat.



heres another:



Teachers who teach girls run the risk of having their noses and ears cut off. Sufi Mohammed, a farmer, was shot to death for drinking tea with foreign soldiers. The Taliban in Chahar Dara have announced that they will cut off all fingers stained with the indelible ink used to prevent multiple voting in the presidential election.

In the night before July 19, the Afghan army, together with police units and 300 German soldiers, launched operation "Adler" ("Eagle") in Chahar Dara. The combined force of 1,200 men drove the Taliban out of the town and conducted house-by-house searches.

But now the German troops are gone, and the Afghan army has also withdrawn. The Taliban are waiting in the surrounding area, planning their return.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,643775,00.html



No one from the US to the UK government to the rest of NATO has taken this seriously enough from the start. Me i would like the gloves to come off and a full commitment to actually take a war to the Taliban then we could win it. I do however understand those who would rather leave and let the Taliban consolidate their hold in the Region, but there is no middle ground here its one or the other.

 

[Alceste]

so now your saying people are joining the Taliban because they are winning?

I'm sure people have a wide range of reasons for joining the Taliban. The fact that the Taliban's eventual victory is almost certain and nobody wants to pick the losing side probably ranks right up there with threats to their lives. (As both my article and Seyorni's suggest).

"Join us or die" works great for recruiting guerilla warriors, as pretty much any guerilla war in history demonstrates.

Look, from the perspective of your average Afghan citizen, only one of two things can happen: Either NATO stays in Afghanistan forever, or they eventually leave and the Taliban retakes the country, wreaking vengeance on all who cooperated with the US. Which do you think they are going to conclude is the more plausible outcome?

 

[kai]

I think that if Afghan men and boys are signing up en masse to fight for the Taleban instead of NATO, there must be a reason for it.

If they are its because they fear the Taliban more than they think NATO is going to stay.

 

[kai]

I'm sure people have a wide range of reasons for joining the Taliban. The fact that their eventual victory is almost certain and nobody wants to pick the losing side probably ranks right up there with threats to the life of those who cooperate with the "new" government (AKA the "old" government from before the Taliban).

"Join us or die" works great for recruiting guerilla warriors, as pretty much any guerilla war in history demonstrates.

Look, from the perspective of your average Afghan citizen, only one of two things can happen: Either NATO stays in Afghanistan forever, or they eventually leave and the Taliban retakes the country, wreaking vengeance on all who cooperated with the US. Which do you think they are going to conclude is the more plausible outcome?

The Afghans know ISAF can defeat the Taliban they see it all the time but and its a big but, the ISAF troops are to thin on the ground to take advantage of any victory large or small. so they probably think ISAF will stay forever but so will the Taliban now the question they ask themselves is which one is going to slit my throat?

 

[Alceste]

If they are its because they fear the Taliban more than they think NATO is going to stay.

Yes, and they are right. NATO is not going to stay forever. Public support for continuous warfare is not inexhaustible (as Vietnam should have taught us), nor can most NATO countries afford to pay the bill for a permanent occupation and / or escalated combat mission.

 

[England my lionheart]

The Bundeswehr's Afghan Nightmare: How the Taliban Are Taking Control of Kunduz - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

Seyorni's article posted upthread has further information.

I think that if Afghan men and boys are signing up en masse to fight for the Taleban instead of NATO, there must be a reason for it.

I don't see how recognising a few people from the village means Afghans are joining the Taleban en masse,the rest of the article though is a good pointer to what the Taleban would do if we pull out.

 

[Alceste]

The Afghans know ISAF can defeat the Taliban they see it all the time but and its a big but, the ISAF troops are to thin on the ground to take advantage of any victory large or small. so they probably think ISAF will stay forever but so will the Taliban now the question they ask themselves is which one is going to slit my throat?

Both are. Fight for the Taliban, the ISAF will kill you. Fight for the ISAF, the Taliban will kill you.

 

[kai]

Yes, and they are right. NATO is not going to stay forever. Public support for continuous warfare is not inexhaustible (as Vietnam should have taught us), nor can most NATO countries afford to pay the bill for a permanent occupation and / or escalated combat mission.

Then they ( the politicians)should fight a bloody war and not treat it like an expedition. or get out and hang their heads in shame.

 

[Alceste]

I think that if Afghan men and boys are signing up en masse to fight for the Taleban instead of NATO, there must be a reason for it.

I don't see how recognising a few people from the village means Afghans are joining the Taleban en masse,the rest of the article though is a good pointer to what the Taleban would do if we pull out.

When we pull out, the Taliban is going to do it anyway, regardless of whether we waste tens of billions of dollars more of our future grandchildrens wages and hundreds or thousands of our own lives on perpetual violent conflict.

I assume you're one of those "stay until the job is done, no matter what the cost, even if we have to stay forever and never finish the job, and even if the cost can never be repaid" people.

 

[kai]

Both are. Fight for the Taliban, the ISAF will kill you. Fight for the ISAF, the Taliban will kill you.

Alceste the Taliban will kill you for voting, for teaching girls, etc etc you know what the Taliban are! ISAF doesnt kill you for not following a dress code.

 

[Alceste]

Then they ( the politicians)should fight a bloody war and not treat it like an expedition. or get out and hang their heads in shame.

So, kill everybody. That's your solution?

 

[kai]

When we pull out, the Taliban is going to do it anyway, regardless of whether we waste tens of billions of dollars more of our future grandchildrens wages and hundreds or thousands of our own lives on perpetual violent conflict.

I assume you're one of those "stay until the job is done, no matter what the cost, even if we have to stay forever and never finish the job, and even if the cost can never be repaid" people.

The job doesnt have to take forever if its fought like a war, and any money spent on infrastructure can only be an investment. leave and mark my words if we don't have to go back or the US will just bomb the hell out of the place.

 

[kai]

So, kill everybody. That's your solution?

treat it as a war and fight the Taliban with sufficient men and equipment that's my solution. or get out hang our heads in shame and watch the Taliban destroy any chance the Afghans had of not being thrust back into the dark ages. sit back and watch Alqueda grow in the safety of the Talibanised Islamic state. until someone has to do it all over again properly.

 

[England my lionheart]

The key to this conflict is Pakistan,recently the US has sent Drones into Pakistan with some success but what needs to be done is more pressure on Pakistan to do more but not the mess they made of the Swat valley.
We need more Soldiers and as i said earlier use take and hold tactics and be very aggressive and get as much aid as possible to the people of Afghanistan and help them build their own security force or Army then we can leave.