My Prediction for the Coronavirus

[Rational Agnostic]

I fully understand the seriousness of the coronavirus and fully sympathize with the people who have been affected by it in any way, and understand that many have lost loved ones due to this serious illness. So, in no way am I trying to minimize the seriousness of the illness. However, I also continue to stand by my statement that the predictions as to the death toll of the virus by the end of the year made by alleged experts are erroneously high, and caused by the error of extrapolating too far beyond the known data points. Here are some facts (Source: www.worldometers.info):

As of today, in 2020, worldwide there have been:

45,536 deaths due to coronavirus
338,269 deaths due to car accidents

By the end of 2020, I predict that the total number of deaths caused by coronavirus will still be less than the number of deaths caused by car accidents. This is my opinion, but I believe it is well-informed based on my own studying of the trends across countries. But, again, it is just an opinion, and only time will tell if it is correct. Again--in no way do I want to minimize the importance of taking the virus seriously, I'm simply making an informed prediction, and am not going to be arguing over it. Time will tell if it is correct.

I think there is an important point to be made though. I know people, including my own relatives, who are afraid of taking walks outside, yet still text while driving. Clearly, this is irrational (and dangerous) behavior. The media would have you believe that even merely taking a walk outside is reckless behavior that puts yourself and others at a huge risk. Yet many of the same people who live in constant fear of the coronavirus continue to drive without wearing a seatbelt, text while driving, or drive intoxicated. This makes no sense to me.

 

[mikkel_the_dane]

I fully understand the seriousness of the coronavirus and fully sympathize with the people who have been affected by it in any way, and understand that many have lost loved ones due to this serious illness. So, in no way am I trying to minimize the seriousness of the illness. However, I also continue to stand by my statement that the predictions as to the death toll of the virus by the end of the year made by alleged experts are erroneously high, and caused by the error of extrapolating too far beyond the known data points. Here are some facts (Source: www.worldometers.info):

As of today, in 2020, worldwide there have been:

45,536 deaths due to coronavirus
338,269 deaths due to car accidents

By the end of 2020, I predict that the total number of deaths caused by coronavirus will still be less than the number of deaths caused by car accidents. This is my opinion, but I believe it is well-informed based on my own studying of the trends across countries. But, again, it is just an opinion, and only time will tell if it is correct. Again--in no way do I want to minimize the importance of taking the virus seriously, I'm simply making an informed prediction, and am not going to be arguing over it. Time will tell if it is correct.

I think there is an important point to be made though. I know people, including my own relatives, who are afraid of taking walks outside, yet still text while driving. Clearly, this is irrational (and dangerous) behavior. The media would have you believe that even merely taking a walk outside is reckless behavior that puts yourself and others at a huge risk. Yet many of the same people who live in constant fear of the coronavirus continue to drive without wearing a seatbelt, text while driving, or drive intoxicated. This makes no sense to me.

I will not go into that, because you should be able to understand that you are comparing apples to rocks.
So as long as you don't understand what makes this virus unique and how that means it is different, there is no need to answer you. Educate yourself, before you start making comparisons.

Mikkel

 

[Mock Turtle]

What number of deaths eventually are sustained we can't really say until a bit later I think because what we are doing to counter the virus changes too. The virus still has to circulate to many more countries yet. But it is true we do tend to minimise the risks we take when it might inconvenience us. The problem with this virus, being unseen, are twofold - not knowing if we might catch it from the air we breath or what we might touch, and how our body might cope - what with the spread of ages it apparently attacks even though most cases do belong to one particular group, the elderly and/or in poor health.

 

[exchemist]

I fully understand the seriousness of the coronavirus and fully sympathize with the people who have been affected by it in any way, and understand that many have lost loved ones due to this serious illness. So, in no way am I trying to minimize the seriousness of the illness. However, I also continue to stand by my statement that the predictions as to the death toll of the virus by the end of the year made by alleged experts are erroneously high, and caused by the error of extrapolating too far beyond the known data points. Here are some facts (Source: www.worldometers.info):

As of today, in 2020, worldwide there have been:

45,536 deaths due to coronavirus
338,269 deaths due to car accidents

By the end of 2020, I predict that the total number of deaths caused by coronavirus will still be less than the number of deaths caused by car accidents. This is my opinion, but I believe it is well-informed based on my own studying of the trends across countries. But, again, it is just an opinion, and only time will tell if it is correct. Again--in no way do I want to minimize the importance of taking the virus seriously, I'm simply making an informed prediction, and am not going to be arguing over it. Time will tell if it is correct.

I think there is an important point to be made though. I know people, including my own relatives, who are afraid of taking walks outside, yet still text while driving. Clearly, this is irrational (and dangerous) behavior. The media would have you believe that even merely taking a walk outside is reckless behavior that puts yourself and others at a huge risk. Yet many of the same people who live in constant fear of the coronavirus continue to drive without wearing a seatbelt, text while driving, or drive intoxicated. This makes no sense to me.

This comparison is all very well but sheds no light at all on what public policy ought to be at this point.

We have gone over this before, but to reiterate, the public policy issue is the potential collapse of the health system. This is a serious risk because:

1) hospital admissions due to Covid-19 all occur in a very short space of time - much shorter than car accidents, or flu, and

2) they all involve the same acute respiratory distress, requiring the same treatment, with the same kit, which is not available in sufficient quantities.

From what I understand, Fauci seems to say that if the health system does not collapse, US deaths are expected to be in the range 100,000 - 240,000. However, if the health system does collapse, the death toll will be higher. I think he said that without the necessary control measures to stop that happening, deaths of the order of a million or more could be expected.

Is Fauci one of your "alleged" experts? Were the epidemiology models he has access to, from Johns Hopkins (I think) and Imperial College, developed by "alleged" experts?

If not, who are these "alleged" experts, whose information you find misleading, and what is it they are saying?

 

[Augustus]

When the flu comparison isn't quite vapid enough for you...

 

[Rational Agnostic]

This comparison is all very well but sheds no light at all on what public policy ought to be at this point.

I'm not trying to address what public policy should be. This is just a prediction. I recognize the public policy problem the virus presents, and don't really have any solution to it.

Is Fauci one of your "alleged" experts? Were the epidemiology models he has access to, from Johns Hopkins (I think) and Imperial College, developed by "alleged" experts?

If not, who are these "alleged" experts, whose information you find misleading, and what is it they are saying?

I don't know exactly how the models were developed, but it seems to me that they were based upon extrapolation of very high rates of increase over a period of several months. But, we're already seeing a bit of a decrease in rates of increase, and I don't think we can expect exponential growth to be sustained over time. Again, I'm not here to argue, because no one really knows. Only time will tell who is correct.

 

[mikkel_the_dane]

I'm not trying to address what public policy should be. This is just a prediction. I recognize the public policy problem the virus presents, and don't really have any solution to it.



I don't know exactly how the models were developed, but it seems to me that they were based upon extrapolation of very high rates of increase over a period of several months. But, we're already seeing a bit of a decrease in rates of increase, and I don't think we can expect exponential growth to be sustained over time. Again, I'm not here to argue, because no one really knows. Only time will tell who is correct.

So how come that models with a very high rates of increase might not be relevant?

Mikkel

 

[Rational Agnostic]

I will not go into that, because you should be able to understand that you are comparing apples to rocks.
So as long as you don't understand what makes this virus unique and how that means it is different, there is no need to answer you. Educate yourself, before you start making comparisons.

Mikkel

I'm not here to argue--we will see if my prediction turns out correct.

 

[Rational Agnostic]

So how come that models with a very high rates of increase might not be relevant?

Mikkel

Because the high rate of increase can't be (and isn't being) sustained

 

[mikkel_the_dane]

I'm not here to argue--we will see if my prediction turns out correct.

Well, then stop making predictions if you aren't will to defend it and learn, what you might have overlooked.

Regards
Mikkel

 

[leov]

I fully understand the seriousness of the coronavirus and fully sympathize with the people who have been affected by it in any way, and understand that many have lost loved ones due to this serious illness. So, in no way am I trying to minimize the seriousness of the illness. However, I also continue to stand by my statement that the predictions as to the death toll of the virus by the end of the year made by alleged experts are erroneously high, and caused by the error of extrapolating too far beyond the known data points. Here are some facts (Source: www.worldometers.info):

As of today, in 2020, worldwide there have been:

45,536 deaths due to coronavirus
338,269 deaths due to car accidents

By the end of 2020, I predict that the total number of deaths caused by coronavirus will still be less than the number of deaths caused by car accidents. This is my opinion, but I believe it is well-informed based on my own studying of the trends across countries. But, again, it is just an opinion, and only time will tell if it is correct. Again--in no way do I want to minimize the importance of taking the virus seriously, I'm simply making an informed prediction, and am not going to be arguing over it. Time will tell if it is correct.

I think there is an important point to be made though. I know people, including my own relatives, who are afraid of taking walks outside, yet still text while driving. Clearly, this is irrational (and dangerous) behavior. The media would have you believe that even merely taking a walk outside is reckless behavior that puts yourself and others at a huge risk. Yet many of the same people who live in constant fear of the coronavirus continue to drive without wearing a seatbelt, text while driving, or drive intoxicated. This makes no sense to me.

 

[Rational Agnostic]

Well, then stop making predictions if you aren't will to defend it and learn, what you might have overlooked.

Regards
Mikkel

Perhaps at the end of the year, you will learn that I was correct.

 

[sun rise]

Car accidents don't cause economic collapse. Trying to prevent the medical system from destruction due to COVID-19 is the reason for the restrictions which is causing the economy to tank.

Therefore comparing apples to rocks (good analogy) fails because it's not been about the death toll but about not destroying the health care system.

Failure to focus on the problem is a mistake.

 

[sun rise]

Perhaps at the end of the year, you will learn that I was correct.

Whether or not you're correct is irrelevant.

 

[Rational Agnostic]

Whether or not you're correct is irrelevant.

Irrelevant to what? I'm in agreement with everyone that the virus is serious and is a problem. Is it as much of a problem as reckless driving? Perhaps not.

 

[Milton Platt]

I fully understand the seriousness of the coronavirus and fully sympathize with the people who have been affected by it in any way, and understand that many have lost loved ones due to this serious illness. So, in no way am I trying to minimize the seriousness of the illness. However, I also continue to stand by my statement that the predictions as to the death toll of the virus by the end of the year made by alleged experts are erroneously high, and caused by the error of extrapolating too far beyond the known data points. Here are some facts (Source: www.worldometers.info):

As of today, in 2020, worldwide there have been:

45,536 deaths due to coronavirus
338,269 deaths due to car accidents

By the end of 2020, I predict that the total number of deaths caused by coronavirus will still be less than the number of deaths caused by car accidents. This is my opinion, but I believe it is well-informed based on my own studying of the trends across countries. But, again, it is just an opinion, and only time will tell if it is correct. Again--in no way do I want to minimize the importance of taking the virus seriously, I'm simply making an informed prediction, and am not going to be arguing over it. Time will tell if it is correct.

I think there is an important point to be made though. I know people, including my own relatives, who are afraid of taking walks outside, yet still text while driving. Clearly, this is irrational (and dangerous) behavior. The media would have you believe that even merely taking a walk outside is reckless behavior that puts yourself and others at a huge risk. Yet many of the same people who live in constant fear of the coronavirus continue to drive without wearing a seatbelt, text while driving, or drive intoxicated. This makes no sense to me.

I agree that people do irrational things all the time...even the most rational of us. Humans are imperfect. It isn't that we should be less concerned about the pandemic, but rather that we should be more concerned about other forms or risky behavior.
Part of the problem is that when you drive down the road while texting, you have the illusion of control and of being able to make a choice about the consequences. With a virus, one feels one has no real control. Both views are incorrect.

 

[Terrywoodenpic]

A totally centralised system of control as in China was able to quickly isolate the disease remarkably rapidly.

Massive hot spots like in Italy and Spain have proved to be far more difficult for their health services to manage.

Although the British health service is largely unified the social care support for the elderly is not. And the problems of staff and bed shortages and poor testing facilities. Is proving to be problematic. As is the shortage of breathing equipment and PPE.

The USA compounds these problems as it has a totally fragmented health system with no coordinating structure at all. It has probably the steepest infection and death rate of any first world nation. It did not help that the virus was allowed to run wild while the oval office was in denial.
America will likely be hit harder and for longer than many major countries.

 

[We Never Know]

Perhaps at the end of the year, you will learn that I was correct.

One thing you need to understand is they are giving worse case scenario.
If they say only 25,000 will die and then 100,000 die, they failed.

Going with a high prediction gives room for error and also for self pats on the back with claims of because of our actions we kept the death totals low.

 

[wandering peacefully]

The virus still has to circulate to many more countries ye

I'm scared to death of the number of Indians and Africans that are probably going to die. Both from lack of health care and from starvation from not working.

 

[exchemist]

I'm not trying to address what public policy should be. This is just a prediction. I recognize the public policy problem the virus presents, and don't really have any solution to it.



I don't know exactly how the models were developed, but it seems to me that they were based upon extrapolation of very high rates of increase over a period of several months. But, we're already seeing a bit of a decrease in rates of increase, and I don't think we can expect exponential growth to be sustained over time. Again, I'm not here to argue, because no one really knows. Only time will tell who is correct.

I have no issue with you making a prediction about the final death toll. That's a game any of us can play.

What I do have an issue with, however, is the suggestion you seem to be making that some people are "alleged" experts, without being prepared to put your money where your mouth is and say who you mean and what they say which you find suspect.

As far as the models go, it seems to me the predictions they make have not been shown to be materially in error, so far. The bell curves they predict, both under "let-it-rip" and various "control" scenarios, have been published in the press and seem to me to make reasonable sense. No model suggests unlimited exponential growth, because even under "let-it-rip", once immunity starts to build up, R drops from its estimated R0 value of 2.5, progressively, towards 1 and below, which is how the model ends up with a bell curve.

The reason you are seeing a deviation in the doubling rate is because of the public policy response (lockdowns), adopted as a direct result of the predictions these models made, and whose effects were also modelled. The curves are in the public domain. Fauci's prediction of 100,000 - 240,000 dead is based on the curve in which deviation in the doubling rate starts to set in about now, thanks to the controls. It will take time for the deviation to turn the accelerating rise into a straight line increase and more time still for the line to flatten out and then start declining. People will be dying throughout that process, hence the final number estimates.

On a number of science forums I subscribe to I have seen certain Americans, over the last week, start to question Fauci's competence, on the flimsiest basis, and introduce sophomoric philosophy issues such as "the trolley problem", or theoretical questions about personal liberty and risk-taking. It looks very much to me as if a political campaign has just got under way, to cast this health emergency in a partisan light, shoot the messenger and undermine the science.