Global Warming ???

[Alceste]

Revoltingest, you may be right. Climate change alone might not destroy our way of life, but pair it up with peak oil and the picture is pretty bleak.

 

[Revoltingest]

Revoltingest, you may be right. Climate change alone might not destroy our way of life, but pair it up with peak oil and the picture is pretty bleak.

I wouldn't say "bleak", but we've interesting times ahead.

 

[Alceste]

I wouldn't say "bleak", but we've interesting times ahead.

Well, the bleakness depends on where you live. According to most projections, we're in a pretty good spot. You wouldn't want to be anywhere that the primary water source is glacial meltwater, especially if you've got a lot of heavily armed neighbours all depending on the same waterways. And you wouldn't want to live anywhere your only potential food source is the grocery store. Like a city, for example. And you certainly wouldn't want to live in any of the countries where most people spend 60% of their income on food already. You would also want to avoid all that coveted waterfront property, and anywhere prone to flooding. IOW, you wouldn't want to live where almost everybody in the world lives. So, while we're in a good spot ourselves, it's going to get pretty crowded when the entire population of Bangladesh moves in.

 

[dmgdnooc]

I wouldn't say "bleak", but we've interesting times ahead.

Maybe the bleakest outlook comes from James Lovelock, the formulator of the Gaia hypothesis.
He estimates that a 4 degree average rise will result in a 90% culling of the human population and envisages isolated pockets of humanity mostly concentrated in Antarctica.
LOVELOCK, James. Only 0.5 billion to survive climate holocaust - Climate Genocide
James Lovelock - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
　
A 2.2 - 5 degree rise is currently the high emissions scenario and the longer we stall on meaningfull action the more likely this temperature shift becomes.
http://www.csiro.au/files/files/pp3c.pdf
　
It is generally agreed that an 8 degree rise will result in global mass extinctions and that the human species will most likely be included.
　
The problem is that if we continue to stall on it and say end up with a 4 degree rise and then there is a multiplier, positive feedback, event; say the Earths methane is released from thawing permafrost, or less CO2 is absorbed by and locked into warmer oceans; then we may be headed straight to an 8, or more, degree rise.
http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatModeling.pdf
　
I stress that there seems to be no certainty beyond the 1 - 2.5 degree low emissions rise that we are currently looking down the barrel of.
But the longer the issue is left then the closer we get to the high end of the estimates and the more vulnerable we are to the positive feedback scenarios.
But total human extinction is currently within the range of possibilities and many human cultural extinctions is just about an assured inevitability.

 

[Alceste]

I read "the Vanishing Face of Gaia" last year. I disagree with Lovelock on some of his conclusions (particularly, I think he anthropomorphises the earth too much when he concludes it's in its old age), but his models that included the response of biomass on simplified model planets were fascinating, persuasive and worrying.

If you really want some scary scenarios, try Six Degrees and Climate Wars.

 

[Sententia]

I am finding it hard these days to seriously argue with intellectual clowns who disagree with global warming. Sorry. I've lost all patience on the subject it seems. (I consider that a bad thing since I usually embrace patience.)

 

[Alceste]

I am finding it hard these days to seriously argue with intellectual clowns who disagree with global warming. Sorry. I've lost all patience on the subject it seems. (I consider that a bad thing since I usually embrace patience.)

I share your pain. There is so much that needs to be done that trying to convince the holdouts would get in the way of my efforts to learn about, create and promote permaculture in my community.

My attitude is, let them disbelieve. Perhaps when they eventually come around they will have somewhere to live and something to eat if I (and millions of others like me) don't get distracted by the pointless bickering.

 

[Revoltingest]

Well, the bleakness depends on where you live. According to most projections, we're in a pretty good spot. You wouldn't want to be anywhere that the primary water source is glacial meltwater, especially if you've got a lot of heavily armed neighbours all depending on the same waterways. And you wouldn't want to live anywhere your only potential food source is the grocery store. Like a city, for example. And you certainly wouldn't want to live in any of the countries where most people spend 60% of their income on food already. You would also want to avoid all that coveted waterfront property, and anywhere prone to flooding. IOW, you wouldn't want to live where almost everybody in the world lives. So, while we're in a good spot ourselves, it's going to get pretty crowded when the entire population of Bangladesh moves in.

Exactly.

 

[LuisDantas]

Another issue that is being avoided is, Liberals say they hate fear tactics but use them to advance their global warming religion. Think about it, if we do not repent, we will be destroyed by fire. :liturgy:

You mean it, don't you? I was kind of shocked.

 

[dmgdnooc]

I read "the Vanishing Face of Gaia" last year. I disagree with Lovelock on some of his conclusions (particularly, I think he anthropomorphises the earth too much when he concludes it's in its old age), but his models that included the response of biomass on simplified model planets were fascinating, persuasive and worrying.

If you really want some scary scenarios, try Six Degrees and Climate Wars.

Well, he is the grand old man of the subject. He's entitled to wander a little imo.
And she is no longer a flouncy girl strutting her stuff to the galaxy. Ooops, too much, eh?
　
Climate Change and Regional Defence Forces: Is There a Connection? « Eurasia Review
The Sydney Morning Herald: national, world, business, entertainment, sport and technology news from Australia's leading newspaper.
The Oz defence force takes the Climate Wars scenario very seriously.
I'm sure that all the world's defence establishments are formulating their contingency plans.
　
A climate changed (for the better) Canada may need to look askance to the south at a climate changed (for the worse) and very hungry US.
I'll bet there are guys on both sides of the border making plans even now.

 

[Reverend Rick]

You mean it, don't you? I was kind of shocked.

Luis, we have had the worst Winter in 20 years. It's fricken cold outside. Perhaps if we had at least a normal Winter or I was able to grill a steak outside, I might consider the possibility. I look at the data, I don't see a warming trend for the last ten years.

After Katrina, people predicted more hurricanes the following year. We had zilch, nada that year.

I find it rather amusing being a global warming agnostic.

In spite of that, I am probably the most green member of RF here.

I have recycled for 40 years, (I'm an old hippy).
I plant many trees every year.
I have a geothermal heating and cooling system.
My house is so insulated and tight I have to have a fan bring fresh air into my home.

I have never been wasteful, I took my own bags to the store long before anyone else ever thought to do that.

I realise I might be wrong about global warming and want to be personally responsible. Sorry if your surprised I call BS on these scientists who skew their data to reach a questionable result.

 

[LuisDantas]

Luis, we have had the worst Winter in 20 years. It's fricken cold outside. Perhaps if we had at least a normal Winter or I was able to grill a steak outside, I might consider the possibility. I look at the data, I don't see a warming trend for the last ten years.

Are you aware that the Global Warming predictions involve variations towards both extremes, and not only straight warming?

(...)

I realise I might be wrong about global warming and want to be personally responsible. Sorry if your surprised I call BS on these scientists who skew their data to reach a questionable result.

I don't care about them, of course. It is the serious ones that we should hear.

 

[Alceste]

Rick, it is a fact that average global temperatures have been warming. The paradoxical "bad winter" in specific regions isn't evidence against warming. More seawater is exposed as ice melts in the poles. While ice reflects most of the sun's heat back out into space, dark seawater absorbs it. This means two basic things: there is more stored energy in the oceans feeding into our weather systems (meaning bigger storms and more frequent extreme weather events), and the Pacific and Atlantic convection currents that moderate temperatures in Europe and the Americas are slowing. That's because they're driven by cold water sinking at the poles as warm water from equatorial regions replaces it. If you understand your geothermal heating system you can understand that.

I don't expect you to believe any of this is actually occurring, I only hope to demonstrate that AGW proponents have a coherent and rational concept going for them that also happens to account quite nicely for not only your continent-sized snowstorm, but also the giant cyclone in Australia, the deadly heat wave in Europe a couple years ago and the widespread flooding in Australia, Canada and Pakistan last year.

 

[Reverend Rick]

Rick, it is a fact that average global temperatures have been warming. The paradoxical "bad winter" in specific regions isn't evidence against warming. More seawater is exposed as ice melts in the poles. While ice reflects most of the sun's heat back out into space, dark seawater absorbs it. This means two basic things: there is more stored energy in the oceans feeding into our weather systems (meaning bigger storms and more frequent extreme weather events), and the Pacific and Atlantic convection currents that moderate temperatures in Europe and the Americas are slowing. That's because they're driven by cold water sinking at the poles as warm water from equatorial regions replaces it. If you understand your geothermal heating system you can understand that.

I don't expect you to believe any of this is actually occurring, I only hope to demonstrate that AGW proponents have a coherent and rational concept going for them that also happens to account quite nicely for not only your continent-sized snowstorm, but also the giant cyclone in Australia, the deadly heat wave in Europe a couple years ago and the widespread flooding in Australia, Canada and Pakistan last year.

Is the earth getting warmer, or cooler? ? The Register

http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2008/0110/p14s01-sten.html

 

[Kathryn]

Notice that the new phrase seems to be "Climate Change" rather than "Global Warming."

Much more convenient.

 

[dmgdnooc]

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/08/antarctic-ice-future/
An over view of the paper.
http://www.eas.gatech.edu/files/jiping_pnas.pdf
The paper itself.
　
The Antarctic sea ice phenomena is itself the product of Climate Change and is expected to be short lived.

 

[Rakhel]

Notice that the new phrase seems to be "Climate Change" rather than "Global Warming."

Much more convenient.

"Climate Change" is easier to defend than "Global Warming."

 

[dmgdnooc]

Here is an interview in which the question is asked of GISS scientist Gavin Schmidt
'Why does GISS get a different answer ..... to the Hadley Centre?
NASA GISS: Research News: Climatologist Gavin Schmidt Discusses the Surface Temperature Record

 

[Willamena]

Some scientists are beginning to believe we may be headed for another Ice Age.

This is a common misconception. It's actually just a case of massive global weather disruption caused by the poles reversing.

Magnetic Polar Shifts Causing Massive Global Superstorms - Salem-News.Com

That's all it is.

 

[Mercy Not Sacrifice]

Well, if you'll excuse me, I've got to go outside my northeast Texas home and scrape the snow off my car (for the fourth time this year - UNHEARD OF) so I can go into town and try to find covers for my outside pipes and faucets. Every store in town has been sold out for weeks and we've got more snow forecast for Tuesday.

If we keep this up, our vacation plans for June will get messed up, because the kids will have to extend school due to having to take so many snow days.

That's one data point from one location in one winter. (Side note: it IS weird for north Texas to get all that snow, though!)

Revoltingest, you may be right. Climate change alone might not destroy our way of life, but pair it up with peak oil and the picture is pretty bleak.

I can't decide which is the worst--the rising seas, the severe ecological threat, or the disruptions of local climates. I, for one, don't remember Georgia having such dry, hot summers followed by cold, snowy winters. Again, it's only one data point in one location across two years, so it's not anywhere near sufficient evidence, but it is rather odd.

I share your pain. There is so much that needs to be done that trying to convince the holdouts would get in the way of my efforts to learn about, create and promote permaculture in my community.

My attitude is, let them disbelieve. Perhaps when they eventually come around they will have somewhere to live and something to eat if I (and millions of others like me) don't get distracted by the pointless bickering.

What I want the climate-change deniers to understand is this: If we are wrong, yet our ideas become law, then we will have to settle for cleaner waters and skies. But if the deniers are wrong, yet their ideas remain law, then we will have to settle for economic and ecological catastrophe.

Is the earth getting warmer, or cooler? ? The Register

As arctic ice melts, South Pole ice grows - CSMonitor.com

Rick, I'm still looking for some peer-reviewed, scientific evidence that questions climate change.