Will Our Species Survive Another 150,000 Years?

[shawn001]

Originally Posted by fantôme profane
If there are any descendants of ours still living 150 000 years from now they will likely be so different from us that they will have to be considered a different species.


Quote:If there are any descendants of ours still living 150 000 years from now they will likely be so different from us that they will have to be considered a different species.

Originally Posted by fantôme profane
If there are any descendants of ours still living 150 000 years from now they will likely be so different from us that they will have to be considered a different species.

not necessarilly bud.

Actually quite likely, but in part from self design and bionics and things we can even think of now.


many human like species made it a million years without evolutionary changes.

were evolving right now, in fact part of that is our brains are shrinking. :help:

If we get into space, then absolutely all bets are off.

I think it would really help

all depends on enviromental and dietary factors

in big part

 

[painted wolf]

We are in the middle of the 6th great extinction event... As generalists we are in a pretty god place, but our population level is unsustainable.
Plus, a number of major stochastic disruptions are due to occur during that time frame, such as the next eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano.
That event alone could push us to the brink.

Not to mention hosts of other normal active volcanoes near major urban areas. Mount Hood will certainly take out Seattle by then.

Just for a start.

If we do survive, it won't be in any way we know it. But every species goes extinct, even the clever generalists.

wa:do

 

[shawn001]

We are in the middle of the 6th great extinction event... As generalists we are in a pretty god place, but our population level is unsustainable.
Plus, a number of major stochastic disruptions are due to occur during that time frame, such as the next eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano.
That event alone could push us to the brink.

Not to mention hosts of other normal active volcanoes near major urban areas. Mount Hood will certainly take out Seattle by then.

Just for a start.

If we do survive, it won't be in any way we know it. But every species goes extinct, even the clever generalists.

wa:do

Better edit

"we are in a pretty god place"

for clairification sake.

also just fyi

"Mount Hood will certainly take out Seattle by then"

Mt Rainer would take out settle.

Hood is close to Portland and is somewhat active.

However just to know the Three Sisters volcanoes in the Cascades near Bend Oregon is very active.

Magma Causing Uplift in Oregon

Magma Causing Uplift in Oregon - Yahoo! News


I studied Volcanism and plate tectonics there, while in college. Its an amzing area for studing them. Different examples of all kinds of things there, including lava lands out side of bend where Nasa studied the first moon rover.

Before the moon, NASA came here

Locations from Lava Butte to McKenzie Pass served as training ground for astronauts starting in the mid-1960s

For residents or tourists who have gazed upon Central Oregon’s cinder cones and lava fields and seen a moonscape, they were not alone.
NASA recognized the similarity, too, and the astronauts who would eventually take “one giant leap for mankind” in the first moonwalk 40 years ago hiked Central Oregon’s jagged lava fields and buttes several years earlier in the mid-1960s.

Before the moon, NASA came here; Locations from Lava Butte to McKenzie Pass served as training ground for astronauts starting in the mid-1960s | News | The Bulletin

 

[painted wolf]

Better edit

"we are in a pretty god place"

for clairification sake.

also just fyi

"Mount Hood will certainly take out Seattle by then"

Mt Rainer would take out settle.

Hood is close to Portland and is somewhat active.

However just to know the Three Sisters volcanoes in the Cascades near Bend Oregon is very active.

Magma Causing Uplift in Oregon

Magma Causing Uplift in Oregon - Yahoo! News


I studied Volcanism and plate tectonics there, while in college. Its an amzing area for studing them. Different examples of all kinds of things there, including lava lands out side of bend where Nasa studied the first moon rover.

Before the moon, NASA came here

Locations from Lava Butte to McKenzie Pass served as training ground for astronauts starting in the mid-1960s

For residents or tourists who have gazed upon Central Oregon’s cinder cones and lava fields and seen a moonscape, they were not alone.
NASA recognized the similarity, too, and the astronauts who would eventually take “one giant leap for mankind” in the first moonwalk 40 years ago hiked Central Oregon’s jagged lava fields and buttes several years earlier in the mid-1960s.

Before the moon, NASA came here; Locations from Lava Butte to McKenzie Pass served as training ground for astronauts starting in the mid-1960s | News | The Bulletin

woopsie. :run:

Wrong mountain. But at least I was in the right general area.
The brain is getting dusty... but the point remains.
When it comes to long term planning we pick some very silly places to put major population centers.

and yeah, I meant "good place".... that one was just a typo.

wa:do

 

[Twilight Hue]

Plus, a number of major stochastic disruptions are due to occur during that time frame, such as the next eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano.
That event alone could push us to the brink.

wa:do

I thought of that particular volcano.

 

[painted wolf]

I thought of that particular volcano.

It's one of my favorite repeated mega-disaster stories. You can see vast swaths of corpses in the fossil record from the previous eruptions such as the Ashfall fossil beds.

It's pretty amazing. I can only guess how badly it would devastate our food production, air travel and weather patterns when it finally lets go. Even at a fraction of it's previous strength.

wa:do

 

[YmirGF]

My short answer is that yes, mankind's future is grand, though not without some terrible trials and tribulations on the way, but rather than being seen as setbacks, they actually are an essential part of the evolutionary process to bring about a more Cosmically mature species.

For those who are interested, read on for the long answer.

Humans within this century will be living on Moon bases, Space Habitats at the Lagrange points between Earth and the Moon, on Phobes (Moon of Mars) and on the surface of Mars. Also by the end of this century, there will be unmanned Interstellar probes to other Star systems.

So with the diversity of inhabited locations in this Solar system alone, mankind is sure to survive and the future will see them spread throughout the Galaxy.

I must admit to have the advantage of an actual document called the Integrated Space Plan (ISP) drawn up by the United Space Alliance (Boeing, Lockheed, etc..) on the request of the then President George Bush Snr.. and managed by Rockwell (company that built the Space Shuttle).

While this plan is no longer the official policy (President Clinton changed that), I follow the progress of space missions of all nations and it is pretty much unfolding as laid out in the plan, though not on the same time frame (it's a few years behind the schedule of the ISP, but now there are multiple nations Russia, China, Japan, India, and Europe involved with many parallel plans involving manned missions to the moon and mars with the view for the establishment of permanent human presence.

The ISP envisioned human babies being born on all of these extra-terrestrial settlements within this century and the concept of terrestrial mankind will give way to a Solar species of mankind. Humans who are born and raised on the low gravity habitats like Space Stations, Moon, etc.,will never be able to visit Earth as their bodies will have adapted to zero or low gravity environments.

It would appear that there are indeed some things we agree on, Ben. Good post.

 

[shawn001]

woopsie. :run:

Wrong mountain. But at least I was in the right general area.
The brain is getting dusty... but the point remains.
When it comes to long term planning we pick some very silly places to put major population centers.

and yeah, I meant "good place".... that one was just a typo.

wa:do

your heart was in the right place and I understood.

Yes same MT range the Cascades that rose from plate tectonics.

"
When it comes to long term planning we pick some very silly places to put major population centers."

we sure do.

 

[shawn001]

If I remember correctly I think there are three supervolcanoes in the US. I know there is one in California.

also if the siberian traps were to go off again or the India traps that would be bad or the great rift in africa somehow.

 

[painted wolf]

If I remember correctly I think there are three supervolcanoes in the US. I know there is one in California.

yeah, Yellowstone, Long Valley and Valles Caldera. Of them Valles is extinct, the other two are still active and both are experiencing dome rising and clusters of small earthquakes.

the others in the world are
Lake Toba (active with a resurgent dome, several major earthquakes recently and a couple of currently dormant volcanoes along the caldera rim)

Taupo volcano (dormant AFAIK)

Aira Caldera (has an active volcanic cone, Sakurajima, inside the caldera)

Aira is the most active of the bunch, but this continuous activity will likely keep it from building up enough power to produce another super-eruption.

Toba is the current most worrisome of the bunch... but the two US supervolcanoes are a serious concern for our long term future. At least project out for the next few hundred to thousands of years.

also if the siberian traps were to go off again or the India traps that would be bad or the great rift in africa somehow.

I don't think Traps will be a worry for us... they were caused by very unique circumstances of the Permian break up of Pangaea and the early impact of India into Asia. They have been extinct a very long time.

wa:do

 

[gnostic]

What are the problems or challenges that might prevent our species from surviving another 150,000 years?

What might help our species survive another 150,000 years?

Do you think our species has a good chance of surviving another 150,000 years? Why or why not?

I am not one for doomsday, and I am not actually a greenie. At the rate of depletion of our natural resources and consumption of food and water, I doubt that we will survive another 150 years let alone 150,000 years. Perhaps, we will still be around 500 years, perhaps more. And we have unhealthy appetite for conflicts.

It is not my concern because I will be long dead.

 

[outhouse]

I am not one for doomsday, and I am not actually a greenie. At the rate of depletion of our natural resources and consumption of food and water, I doubt that we will survive another 150 years let alone 150,000 years. Perhaps, we will still be around 500 years, perhaps more. And we have unhealthy appetite for conflicts.

It is not my concern because I will be long dead.

Disease will take root before we deplete our resources.

If the governements fail, we will just go back to our barbaric tribal roots and start a new

 

[shawn001]

Overpopulation is a HUGE problem.

 

[outhouse]

Overpopulation is a HUGE problem.

exactly and what happenes in the animal kingdom when this happens?

disease takes over and spreads through the weak.

we have human records of this let alone animal records that show the same thing.

Africa is a example

overpopulated deer here just start dropping dead in people yards with disease when the population rises. this is before resources are exausted.

 

[painted wolf]

exactly and what happenes in the animal kingdom when this happens?

disease takes over and spreads through the weak.

we have human records of this let alone animal records that show the same thing.

Africa is a example

overpopulated deer here just start dropping dead in people yards with disease when the population rises. this is before resources are exausted.

Actually the spread of disease in overpopulated animals is as much the result of hunger and stress as it is population density. Starvation and stress lower your immune system making disease/parasite break outs more likely to happen and more quick to spread when they do.

Often times it is otherwise relatively harmless diseases/parasites that strike down animals in overpopulated situations.

Overpopulation has a host of problems that it inflicts on animals and humans. From changes in hormones and blood pressure to starvation, parasite loads and disease.

wa:do

 

[outhouse]

Actually the spread of disease in overpopulated animals is as much the result of hunger and stress as it is population density. Starvation and stress lower your immune system making disease/parasite break outs more likely to happen and more quick to spread when they do.

Often times it is otherwise relatively harmless diseases/parasites that strike down animals in overpopulated situations.

Overpopulation has a host of problems that it inflicts on animals and humans. From changes in hormones and blood pressure to starvation, parasite loads and disease.

wa:do

Understood.

 

[kerravon]

What are the problems or challenges that might prevent our species from surviving another 150,000 years?

What might help our species survive another 150,000 years?

Do you think our species has a good chance of surviving another 150,000 years? Why or why not?

I would expect in our lifetime that the remaining dictatorships will be toppled or convert to democracies on their own. That will usher in democratic peace, and the UN will put safeguards in to prevent dictatorship from ever arising again. With democratic peace there will be a realistic nuclear disarmament drive, and general demilitarization. We'll all live in something similar to the European Union today. The ideological competitors to secular capitalist liberal democracy will be discreditted and disappear.

The money that used to be spent on the war machines of the world will be spent on scientific research instead. Maybe not in our lifetimes, but in this century we will have nuclear fusion sorted out so that we have plentiful energy. Safeguards will be put in place to ensure our species survives a catastrophe.

This should all keep us going until we invent artificial intelligence within the specified timeframe, at which point humans will be redundant. We will also have the technology to transfer our brains onto silicon and be able to run computer simulations of our own. I believe that's already been achieved and we're already living in such a simulation.

Our silicon brains and our AI creations will also be sent to other solar systems.

Basically I think our future is bright, and I'm looking forward to the first phase being completed, which is the toppling of the remaining dictatorships. All Obama needs to do is nod his head and most of the work will be done in a very short period of time. Note that nation building is no longer a requirement, so things will be done more like Libya. Very low cost warfare.

 

[Terrywoodenpic]

For the species as we know it to survive it will be a race between consumption of resources and scientific advance.
The chances are we will lose the race, as there is no evidence we are intelligent enough to reduce our population to a sustainable level.
A near total collapse of population through war starvation and sickness seems almost inevitable.
It depends on when this occurs in our scientific progress, what the final outcome will be.
A few scientifically advanced islands of refuge might allow a new start.
But a regression to earlier levels of sustainable civilisation and slow regrowth seems more likely.

 

[idav]

For the species as we know it to survive it will be a race between consumption of resources and scientific advance.
The chances are we will lose the race, as there is no evidence we are intelligent enough to reduce our population to a sustainable level.
A near total collapse of population through war starvation and sickness seems almost inevitable.
It depends on when this occurs in our scientific progress, what the final outcome will be.
A few scientifically advanced islands of refuge might allow a new start.
But a regression to earlier levels of sustainable civilisation and slow regrowth seems more likely.

How much regression is the question. Does it mean people will have to lose the cell phones and go back to land lines or worse? For obvious reasons if currency crashes it would be hard to sustain the mega corporations (monopolies need to crash anyway).

Oh noes the interwebz!!!!

 

[Terrywoodenpic]

How much regression is the question. Does it mean people will have to lose the cell phones and go back to land lines or worse? For obvious reasons if currency crashes it would be hard to sustain the mega corporations (monopolies need to crash anyway).

Oh noes the interwebz!!!!

Regression will continue till it is sustainable at a village level. all technical advance beyond iron and steam will be gone.