Will Our Species Survive Another 150,000 Years?

[kerravon]

For the species as we know it to survive it will be a race between consumption of resources and scientific advance.
The chances are we will lose the race, as there is no evidence we are intelligent enough to reduce our population to a sustainable level.
A near total collapse of population through war starvation and sickness seems almost inevitable.

The population explosion is mainly isolated to Africa. That will collapse whenever first world countries decide enough is enough and refuse to send further aid to Africa. I don't see any reason why a collapse in Africa should affect the rest of the world. Africa can be treated as an extension of the Atlantic Ocean.

I don't see anything on the horizon that will prevent the West's scientific advance. The western militiaries (ie NATO) won't be disbanded while ever there is any threat.

 

[painted wolf]

The population explosion is mainly isolated to Africa. That will collapse whenever first world countries decide enough is enough and refuse to send further aid to Africa. I don't see any reason why a collapse in Africa should affect the rest of the world. Africa can be treated as an extension of the Atlantic Ocean.

I don't see anything on the horizon that will prevent the West's scientific advance. The western militiaries (ie NATO) won't be disbanded while ever there is any threat.

Not really.. Africa, Asia and the Americas are all seeing population increases. Honestly the only parts of the world not seeing it are some European countries and Japan... even the USA has a steadily growing population.

Africa is a is definately tied to the rest of the world... both by the nature of migration and the fact that Africa is a major source of resources for the developed and developing world. Everything from the rare earth metals needed to power our high tec gadgets to our chocolate.

To suggest otherwise is naive at best...

wa:do

 

[Terrywoodenpic]

The population explosion is mainly isolated to Africa. That will collapse whenever first world countries decide enough is enough and refuse to send further aid to Africa. I don't see any reason why a collapse in Africa should affect the rest of the world. Africa can be treated as an extension of the Atlantic Ocean.

I don't see anything on the horizon that will prevent the West's scientific advance. The western militiaries (ie NATO) won't be disbanded while ever there is any threat.

The worlds population is still expanding exponentially.
many of the countries developing fastest, are now taking up a higher and higher proportion of the worlds food and raw materials.
Global warming, an exploding Caldera, or asteroid strike, are all capable of tipping the balance to oblivion. Lesser disasters or over exploitation of resources may take longer but are remorseless and certain.

 

[kerravon]

Not really.. Africa, Asia and the Americas are all seeing population increases. Honestly the only parts of the world not seeing it are some European countries and Japan... even the USA has a steadily growing population.

The US population is expanding due to immigration I believe.

Africa is a is definately tied to the rest of the world... both by the nature of migration and the fact that Africa is a major source of resources for the developed and developing world. Everything from the rare earth metals needed to power our high tec gadgets to our chocolate.

To suggest otherwise is naive at best...

To suggest that western science cannot survive without Africa seems naive to me. It is only fairly recently that Africa was even part of the equation. We can live without chocolate too. Science will continue. I don't see any threats to our scientific advance. We have a massive military alliance (NATO) to protect against that. Even when we run out of oil we will find a way to adapt, even if things get more expensive. It won't halt the progress of science.

 

[The Sum of Awe]

150,000 I'm not so optimistic about...

 

[kerravon]

The worlds population is still expanding exponentially.

Yes - like I said - Africa. If we lose Africa due to overpopulation it won't mean the end of western civilization, which is where the science is being done.

many of the countries developing fastest, are now taking up a higher and higher proportion of the worlds food and raw materials.

Higher starting from a low base. Irrelevant anyway. There is no threat to western food supplies, even if some foods may become more expensive.

Global warming, an exploding Caldera, or asteroid strike, are all capable of tipping the balance to oblivion. Lesser disasters or over exploitation of resources may take longer but are remorseless and certain.

Completely alarmist. The West is very well protected, and that is only going to increase with the daily advances in science.

 

[Reptillian]

We are in the middle of the 6th great extinction event... As generalists we are in a pretty god place, but our population level is unsustainable.
Plus, a number of major stochastic disruptions are due to occur during that time frame, such as the next eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano.
That event alone could push us to the brink.

Not to mention hosts of other normal active volcanoes near major urban areas. Mount Hood will certainly take out Seattle by then.

Just for a start.

If we do survive, it won't be in any way we know it. But every species goes extinct, even the clever generalists.

wa:do

Are you sure we aren't specialists? Particularly intelligence or language specialists. How stable would you say our ecological niche is? Mammoths became extinct, and elephants are generally a pretty intelligent organism. (I'd go so far as to say that elephants are the non-primate life form most likely to create a civilization) Not to mention that there is evidence that we went through a genetic bottle neck at one point and were reduced to around a thousand individuals. I'd say we're pretty sensitive to environmental changes despite our brainpower.

The worlds population is still expanding exponentially.
many of the countries developing fastest, are now taking up a higher and higher proportion of the worlds food and raw materials.
Global warming, an exploding Caldera, or asteroid strike, are all capable of tipping the balance to oblivion. Lesser disasters or over exploitation of resources may take longer but are remorseless and certain.

I've seen some projections of our future population. Its predicted to level off at about 9 billion around mid century.

 

[Krok]

The population explosion is mainly isolated to Africa.

Not true. India and Pakistan, for example.

That will collapse whenever first world countries decide enough is enough and refuse to send further aid to Africa.

I disagree. The total amount the west sends to parts of Africa is only a very small proportion of what is generated in the rest of Africa.

I don't see any reason why a collapse in Africa should affect the rest of the world. Africa can be treated as an extension of the Atlantic Ocean.

Africa won't collapse. The economies, coupled with wealth per person on the continent, are growing at an unprecedented rate. Just remember Africa doesn't have the advantage of sending large proportions of "excess" population to other parts of the world and taking that wealth generated by those people back. That's a large reason why most of Europe is so wealthy.

I don't see anything on the horizon that will prevent the West's scientific advance.

In the US, I can see pseudoscience keeping the country's scientific advance back. In Europe, no. Please also realise that lots of other areas also contribute to scientific "advance". Not just the west.

The western militiaries (ie NATO) won't be disbanded while ever there is any threat.

Why should they?

 

[Krok]

I apologise for my previous post going completely off-topic. I get so annoyed when people diss Africa with incorrect statements and ignorance. A lot of countries on the continent are booming at the moment!:yes:

 

[kerravon]

Not true.

I said "mainly". It is indeed mainly Africa.

That's a large reason why most of Europe is so wealthy.

The reason for Europe being wealthy is that they have an educated intelligent population running their countries according to the highest standards. Don't try taking that away from them.

In the US, I can see pseudoscience keeping the country's scientific advance back.

There's not a scrap of evidence that pseudoscience is interfering with the US's scientific advancement.

Please also realise that lots of other areas also contribute to scientific "advance". Not just the west.

It's mainly coming from the west, and America in particular.

Why should they?

I was just highlighting that Africa is of no threat to the West no matter what they do population-wise. If they want to overpopulate their continent to the point of extinction, that's not going to put the brakes on the West's scientific advance, and so long as there is nothing to put the brakes on that, we should be able to invent controlled nuclear fusion etc etc. The most the Africans could do would be to cease trade. Not sure how that would help them any, but the West will survive without trade with them regardless.

 

[painted wolf]

Are you sure we aren't specialists?

Yes, we are generalists... we live in every environment and eat anything. We are not specialized biologically.

Particularly intelligence or language specialists.

That isn't an ecological specialization. If anything that helps us not harms us as it lets us coordinate out actions more effectively for group survival.

How stable would you say our ecological niche is?

It's always dangerous to be at the top of the trophic pyramid. However, since we are such generalized critters (omnivores with no set environmental limitation) we are in good shape to stay there, even in the event of a trophic collapse. We can slide down to primary consumer (herbivore) if all else fails.

Mammoths became extinct, and elephants are generally a pretty intelligent organism. (I'd go so far as to say that elephants are the non-primate life form most likely to create a civilization) Not to mention that there is evidence that we went through a genetic bottle neck at one point and were reduced to around a thousand individuals. I'd say we're pretty sensitive to environmental changes despite our brainpower.

Elephants are specialists... Mammoths even more so. They were specalized giant herbivores dependent on particular types of plants and in particular environments. Wooly Mammoths could not survive without large areas of tundra sedge and grassland, a habitat that was all but replaced by boreal forest.

We went through a genetic bottleneck of between 3,000 and 10,000 breeding pairs... but this only counts the ancestral population, not the whole population. That means there could have been more humans who did not contribute long term to the current human gene pool. Plus, there are some serious flaws with the bottleneck hypothesis. There are ways to produce the same effect in the human population while keeping the total number of humans fairly stable. (all natural populations fluctuate up and down) and it may simply be that prior to our migration out of Africa we generally had a smaller population in the few tens of thousands.

wa:do

 

[CynthiaCypher]

Basically I think our future is bright

You don't take into account that scientific and technological progress can create new problems. Problems that might be insurmountable.

 

[Photonic]

You don't take into account that scientific and technological progress can create new problems. Problems that might be insurmountable.

Lol.


:beach:

 

[CynthiaCypher]

Lol.


:beach:

So I take it you believe that scientific and technological advance never creates new problems?

 

[PolyHedral]

So I take it you believe that scientific and technological advance never creates new problems?

I don't think it has ever created a problem that it cannot, in principle, solve.

 

[CynthiaCypher]

I don't think it has ever created a problem that it cannot, in principle, solve.

And that would be a faith statement

 

[shawn001]

So I take it you believe that scientific and technological advance never creates new problems?

yes they do sometimes.

However, just wondering what you think those problems might be?