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The problem is that these kinds of actions create conditions where intentions can be misunderstood and accidents can happen. The whole point of diplomacy and measured responses is to try to prevent unforeseen consequences. Both Putin and Obama are not fully in control of their respective countries. They have to try to figure out a way to disengage before they get locked into something very bad that they can't back out of. Personally, I think some of that has happened already, since Lavrov seems unable to come to an agreement with Kerry that won't be undermined by Putin. Putin has a huge fan base of irredentists now--people who have very high expectations that he will assimilate eastern Ukraine. Even if he wants to back out of satisfying that expectation, it will be very difficult. If enthusiasm for him is allowed to drop below a fevered pitch, he may find himself out of power very quickly, because he also has a sizable coalition of political enemies. I don't see how he can walk away now and still save face with his supporters.
I think that Putin's plan is to try to avoid an overt invasion. He has sent in special forces operatives to help destabilize the situation and foment ethnic tensions. If things spiral out of control, he could intervene militarily on "humanitarian" grounds, but the template seems to have been established in Crimea. First, they take over government buildings to get their hands on voter rolls. Then they have a referendum to establish "independence" from Ukraine. The ballots for that referendum have already appeared and been distributed for a referendum to take place a few days from now. The only question on the ballot will be whether to declare independence, and nobody is going to be allowed to speak against it publicly. If any people do, they can expect to be harassed and perhaps physically harmed. That referendum will succeed, because the people counting the votes have predetermined the outcome. Next, after the region has seceded, there will be a second referendum to join the Russian Federation. That vote will also succeed for the same reason. This has all been planned out in advance.
Nobody knows for sure. The latest move from Putin has been to endorse the Ukrainian election, call for a delay of the referendum by pro-Russia groups, ask them to leave the occupied buildings, and declare that he is pulling his troops back from the Ukrainian border. That all sounds great, but there is no sign that his troops are pulling back. It remains to be seen whether anyone heeds his public calls for conciliation. Since Putin is a proven liar, nobody knows what he is actually doing. So the only way to tell is to look at what actually happens. So far, nothing has changed. Check again tomorrow.
