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How long?

Twilight Hue

Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
Already people are feeling the disruption and inconvenience, as well as the stresses that come with being forced to stay at your home with small privileges for going out such as essentials like groceries, healthcare, and such.

I can't help but feel this will be taking us way into the summer, if not most of the year. Mind you it's just a personal gut feeling of mine.

Here's what the media in NY is saying....

How Long Will the Coronavirus Outbreak and Shutdown Last?

I wonder how long people will be able to tolerate a restrictive lifestyle before somebody blows their lid and goes absolutely bonkers?

I thought about today because on the way back to New York from Pittsburgh, you won't believe the number of desperate Canadians I saw rushing toward the border that's already been closed to non-essential traffic.

it seems a lot of people are going to have a very difficult time at it.

COVID-19: Canada won’t be able to bring home all Canadians stuck abroad due to global lockdowns, says Trudeau
 

Rational Agnostic

Well-Known Member
Already people are feeling the disruption and inconvenience, as well as the stresses that come with being forced to stay at your home with small privileges for going out such as essentials like groceries, healthcare, and such.

I can't help but feel this will be taking us way into the summer, if not most of the year. Mind you it's just a personal gut feeling of mine.

Here's what the media in NY is saying....

How Long Will the Coronavirus Outbreak and Shutdown Last?

I wonder how long people will be able to tolerate a restrictive lifestyle before somebody blows their lid and goes absolutely bonkers?

I thought about today because on the way back to New York from Pittsburgh, you won't believe the number of desperate Canadians I saw rushing toward the border that's already been closed to non-essential traffic.

it seems a lot of people are going to have a very difficult time at it.

COVID-19: Canada won’t be able to bring home all Canadians stuck abroad due to global lockdowns, says Trudeau

Government officials need to give clear, concrete statements about the goals i.e. "we are sheltering in place until the number of daily new cases decreases consistently for a week" or "we are sheltering in place until we have the medical equipment necessary to care for everyone who gets sick." Without clear articulations like these, I guarantee Americans will NOT follow the rules for much longer. The problem is, we have no leadership. Our leaders likely do not even have goals like this in mind.
 

Left Coast

This Is Water
Staff member
Premium Member
Already people are feeling the disruption and inconvenience, as well as the stresses that come with being forced to stay at your home with small privileges for going out such as essentials like groceries, healthcare, and such.

I can't help but feel this will be taking us way into the summer, if not most of the year. Mind you it's just a personal gut feeling of mine.

Here's what the media in NY is saying....

How Long Will the Coronavirus Outbreak and Shutdown Last?

I wonder how long people will be able to tolerate a restrictive lifestyle before somebody blows their lid and goes absolutely bonkers?

I thought about today because on the way back to New York from Pittsburgh, you won't believe the number of desperate Canadians I saw rushing toward the border that's already been closed to non-essential traffic.

it seems a lot of people are going to have a very difficult time at it.

COVID-19: Canada won’t be able to bring home all Canadians stuck abroad due to global lockdowns, says Trudeau

One of my worries, even if this thing only lasts till the summer, is the effect on education. Here in California, the governor has already said he doesn't think schools will reopen for the rest of the school year. What does that mean for catching kids up to where they should be in their education? Are seniors just going to be automatically graduated, or expected to return in the fall to complete coursework?

How bad the pandemic gets here will depend on how well the public follows the recommendations and orders to social distance, be good about hand-washing, etc.
 

Rational Agnostic

Well-Known Member
One of my worries, even if this thing only lasts till the summer, is the effect on education. Here in California, the governor has already said he doesn't think schools will reopen for the rest of the school year. What does that mean for catching kids up to where they should be in their education? Are seniors just going to be automatically graduated, or expected to return in the fall to complete coursework?

How bad the pandemic gets here will depend on how well the public follows the recommendations and orders to social distance, be good about hand-washing, etc.

I'm not particularly worried about education, as it can be converted to online format if necessary. The economy I am very worried about. We're headed for high unemployment AND inflation, and a worldwide economic crisis worse than the depression. Closing non-essential businesses is not economically sustainable.
 

sun rise

The world is on fire
Premium Member
Given that no other major country nor most minor ones (DPRK is an exception) is willing and able to exercise that level of total control and surveillance over its citizens, I expect the outbreak to last longer than in China.

If we're really bending the curve, it will take longer but with fewer dying.

Right now with things getting worse day-by-day, it's easy to shelter in place etc. When things start improving and people's lives are getting financially harder, I assume we'll see another upward spike in cases but I'd love to be wrong.
 

Left Coast

This Is Water
Staff member
Premium Member
I'm not particularly worried about education, as it can be converted to online format if necessary.

Way easier said than done. Many, many school districts in this country are in no way prepared to convert learning to a 100% online format. Not to mention the logistics of needing to provide childcare for kids who are home all day long.

The economy I am very worried about. We're headed for high unemployment AND inflation, and a worldwide economic crisis worse than the depression. Closing non-essential businesses is not economically sustainable.

You're right, it's definitely a concern. And will be way worse for less wealthy countries who depend on big economies like the US for their economic viability.
 

Shadow Wolf

Certified People sTabber
I assume we'll see another upward spike in cases but I'd love to be wrong.
That was my thought earlier. And it sucks for us if it manages to evolve to something worse by then. The East is showing this just requires a little patience and doing what needs to be done. The lights will keep shining there. But in the West, it's a different outlook. A round two could be more that a cloud that too will blow over and pass.
 

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
I love staying home.
And....
I'm getting out of social events Mrs Revolt had planned.
With her working from home, every day is like the weekend.
My curly locks are growing, now that barber shops are closed.
 

beenherebeforeagain

Rogue Animist
Premium Member
my worry is that people who are used to not being in the home all the time with other members of their families/group will begin to get on each others' nerves. I anticipate increases in domestic violence, assault, etc.

Without being able to get out/work off energy, etc., many people will likely feel depressed. I anticipate increased mental health needs, including attempted and likely successful suicide, and murder.

I also anticipate that people will start checking in with neighbors, family and friends more frequently, with more people helping out with those who are more at risk.

just a few of my thoughts...
 

ADigitalArtist

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
Government officials need to give clear, concrete statements about the goals i.e. "we are sheltering in place until the number of daily new cases decreases consistently for a week" or "we are sheltering in place until we have the medical equipment necessary to care for everyone who gets sick." Without clear articulations like these, I guarantee Americans will NOT follow the rules for much longer. The problem is, we have no leadership. Our leaders likely do not even have goals like this in mind.
Since we don't have adequate testing, we don't know how many daily new cases there actually are.
Since we don't know how many daily new cases there are, we don't have an accurate prediction for what the care threshold will be. What we do know is many hospitals are already getting overwhelmed right now.
I agree it would be nice if we could give a concrete date, but I don't see how that's possible to do reasonably right now.
Coronavirus Cases Strain New York City Hospitals: ‘We’re Getting Pounded’

We told patients at my clinic that we will be close until the end of April and will re-evaluate then.
 

Howard Is

Lucky Mud
my worry is that people who are used to not being in the home all the time with other members of their families/group will begin to get on each others' nerves. I anticipate increases in domestic violence, assault, etc.

Without being able to get out/work off energy, etc., many people will likely feel depressed. I anticipate increased mental health needs, including attempted and likely successful suicide, and murder.

I also anticipate that people will start checking in with neighbors, family and friends more frequently, with more people helping out with those who are more at risk.

just a few of my thoughts...

I think you are right.
Another good reason to shelter in place. The loony index will go through the roof.
 

McBell

mantra-chanting henotheistic snake handler
Reopening Indiana
Cliff Notes Version

May 4th
  • Travel restriction lifted
  • Social gatherings limited to 25
  • Government Offices opening
  • Manufacturing companies can reopen
  • Commercial and retail businesses can open at 50-percent capacity
  • Shopping malls can open at 50-percent capacity

May 8th
  • worship services can resume subject to social distancing guidelines

May 11th
  • food establishments can open at 50-percent capacity
  • Bar seating REMAINS closed
  • hair salons, barber shops and similar businesses by appointment only

May 25th
  • Increase sit down eateries limits
  • Increase social gathering limits

June 14th
  • Face coverings no longer required
 

Twilight Hue

Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
Reopening Indiana
Cliff Notes Version

May 4th
  • Travel restriction lifted
  • Social gatherings limited to 25
  • Government Offices opening
  • Manufacturing companies can reopen
  • Commercial and retail businesses can open at 50-percent capacity
  • Shopping malls can open at 50-percent capacity

May 8th
  • worship services can resume subject to social distancing guidelines

May 11th
  • food establishments can open at 50-percent capacity
  • Bar seating REMAINS closed
  • hair salons, barber shops and similar businesses by appointment only

May 25th
  • Increase sit down eateries limits
  • Increase social gathering limits

June 14th
  • Face coverings no longer required
That sounds reasonable.
 

Heyo

Veteran Member
That sounds reasonable.
Nope, it's not.
Measures should be at least one week apart, better two.
Every new step should have "if the reproduction rate is still below 1" before it.
There should be an "else" clause with "go back one step".
That detailed plan will only last until first contact with reality.
 

McBell

mantra-chanting henotheistic snake handler
Nope, it's not.
Measures should be at least one week apart, better two.
Every new step should have "if the reproduction rate is still below 1" before it.
There should be an "else" clause with "go back one step".
That detailed plan will only last until first contact with reality.
I posted the "Cliff Notes" version of the plan.

He said the reopening is subject to four guiding principles
  • COVID patient admissions have decreased the last two weeks.
  • State must retain surge capacity of beds and ventilators.
  • Test all Hoosiers who are symptomatic - plans to test 100,000 Hoosiers per month
  • Contact all individuals who have COVID-19 and expand contact tracing program. (Centralized contract tracing will begin soon)
Gov. Holcomb announces plan to reopen the economy
 
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