Brexit is Costing Britain 500 Million Pounds per Week and Growing

[England my lionheart]

Just wait until they need an e-Visa to travel to Benidorm or their jobs vanish when major manufacturers follow the likes of Rees Mogg and relocate to the EU

I don't mind getting a visa, it was never a problem before, it's only a problem if you have a criminal record.

Some jobs will go but I think others will appear.

 

[Notanumber]

If the UK does manage to free itself from the clutches of the EU, it will only provide an opportunity to delay the inevitable.

If we are successful and delay the rise of Islam, will we still want to visit Europe once it has succumbed?

 

[exchemist]

Article.

Comments?

Seems plausible. Investment is certainly on hold and household spending is down, as shown by the collapse of a number of high street retailers. But these estimates are always fraught with uncertainty, as nobody can really model an alternative path accurately.

The real effect will come over the next five years, as the automotive and aerospace industries, and the small engineering companies that depend on them, gradually atrophy, and some of the banking progressively emigrates to Paris, Frankfurt, Amsterdam and New York.

It is an empirical fact that volumes of trade vary inversely with distance from the market involved. This, and the fact that the EU already has comprehensive trade deals with most partners that the UK benefits from, give the lie to the Brexiters' fanciful claim that Britain will somehow be released to trade more freely than when in the EU. The whole thing is a nostalgic fantasy for days of Empire.

One positive may be that the UK will be forced to train its blue collar people properly, instead of encouraging them to take useless degrees in media studies and the like, saddling them with debt. Because Britain will no longer have access to trained and willing Poles and Spaniards to do skilled blue collar jobs any more.

 

[exchemist]

Since the UK entered eURO


I believe the exit of Great Britain will cause other countries to re-think their part in the union. As for Spain they were better off when they ran their own economy. Members of the EU are not on equal footing and a lot of countries are far richer than others and have had to subsidize those who are poorer. Since British holiday makers made up a lot of the tourists for Spain they would be killing it for themselves. The number of British traveling there has started to drop. Britain have lived independently for centuries. They can do it again and do not need the EU otherwise how would other countries survive who are not part of the EU. The British have found it just as cheap or expensive whichever be the case to travel to other places now. It basically is what Hitler wanted only done without war and with Germany holding the reigns. he poorest in Britain are being put into absolute poverty whilst the fat cat Europe is getting richer on their money. If more countries exit at this time then where will that leave them? The Queen of England sees no purpose or reason for the country to be in the union. It does England no good just costs money. The EU leaders are worried about other countries exiting and trying to make things difficult in the hope it deters others leaving. If the other countries were wise they would leave too.There would be no EU to leave then, it will be disbanded and everyone gets their own money and runs their own country.

On the contrary, the EU is making it as easy as possible. They have offered Britain a number of models for how the relationship can work in future. What they cannot do is undermine the system of treaties that makes the EU work. The reason for the lack of progress in negotiation is that the UK side stupidly thought - and largely continues to think - that the EU sees a deal in terms of trade and that they could therefore use the prize of access to the UK market to get the benefits of trade without the costs and constraints that go with the EU system. In effect, the UK thought it could drive a coach and horses through the EU treaty system, thereby wrecking it. The EU has said from day one they would never agree to this, hence all the stuff abut cherry-picking (and Bozo's idiotic and inflammatory remark about having cake and eating it). Interestingly the head of a major German trade organisation has commented that for German industry the prize presented by the EU Single Market is worth far more to them than access to the British market for their products. So German industry is right behind the EU stance.

If the UK leaves with no deal, the automotive and aerospace industries, and hundreds of thousands of highly paid jobs, will be at serious risk, because these businesses will be uncompetitive, due to border delays on stocks of parts ruining their just-in-time business model. Salaries will go down. Unemployment will go up. And people will search for someone to blame.

Apart from that, it will all be great.

And, no doubt, other EU members will be queuing up to repeat the experience. Or not.

 

[Jumi]

I seem to recall that during the time before the vote for Brexit there was a lot of uncertainty about the actual economic results of doing it. IIRC, even many nominal Brexit supporters hoped to attain some form of stronger position for negotiations and did not actually want it to happen.

It's supposed to be a join only club. Leaving requires some kind of cost.

 

[Woberts]

If the UK does manage to free itself from the clutches of the EU, it will only provide an opportunity to delay the inevitable.

If we are successful and delay the rise of Islam, will we still want to visit Europe once it has succumbed?

Muslim people are ruining Europe!!!!!!
Whatever will we do?!?!

 

[Jumi]

And, no doubt, other EU members will be queuing up to repeat the experience. Or not.

I don't think some countries like Norway and Switzerland will want to consider joining after seeing how leaving works.

 

[exchemist]

I don't think some countries like Norway and Switzerland will want to consider joining after seeing how leaving works.

They took deliberate decisions to stay out but with close links, many years ago, and I am not aware of any pressure, or intent, to revisit those decisions. But if they were to do so, they could, if things went wrong, quite easily revert to the status quo ante and all would be well.

Both the Swiss and the Norway relationship models were offered to the UK. Either would be easy to implement and eminently practical. However both were rejected by the British government, as they thought they could get something better. They can't.

 

[LuisDantas]

It's supposed to be a join only club. Leaving requires some kind of cost.

Excuse me?

 

[Notanumber]

Muslim people are ruining Europe!!!!!!
Whatever will we do?!?!

You can start by watching this.

 

[Jumi]

They took deliberate decisions to stay out but with close links, many years ago, and I am not aware of any pressure, or intent, to revisit those decisions. But if they were to do so, they could, if things went wrong, quite easily revert to the status quo ante and all would be well.

I doubt it.

Both the Swiss and the Norway relationship models were offered to the UK. Either would be easy to implement and eminently practical. However both were rejected by the British government, as they thought they could get something better. They can't.

I've heard the Norway model is being discussed, but Brussels not wanting the Swiss model. What's your source on them being offered directly? As far as I can tell there's two hugely inefficient bureaucracies trying to make something happen, while both see a zero sum game.

 

[Altfish]

I don't think some countries like Norway and Switzerland will want to consider joining after seeing how leaving works.

We, the UK that is, actually wrote the rules on leaving, so we can't start to complain about the process.
It was obvious to me that it wouldn't be easy but of course the electorate believed idiots like Davis when he said we could easily leave the EU. So easy that he spent 12 months leading the task and then nobly resigned

 

[Notanumber]

So easy that he spent 12 months leading the task and then nobly resigned

Constructive dismissal more like.

The PM would rather listen to the unelected civil servants than the elected politicians.

No wonder she feels comfortable with the EU.

 

[Altfish]

Constructive dismissal more like.

The PM would rather listen to the unelected civil servants than the elected politicians.

No wonder she feels comfortable with the EU.

I can't believe that you are blaming everyone but Brexiteers for the mess we are in.
I predicted this mess back in 2016 before the Referendum, why couldn't the leavers see the same problems.

 

[Notanumber]

I can't believe that you are blaming everyone but Brexiteers for the mess we are in.
I predicted this mess back in 2016 before the Referendum, why couldn't the leavers see the same problems.

If the Remainers had got behind the true Peoples Vote instead of calling for this Losers Vote, we would be dictating our terms to the EU.

 

[exchemist]

You can start by watching this.

So a spot of antisemitism into the bargain, eh?

 

[Jumi]

It was obvious to me that it wouldn't be easy but of course the electorate believed idiots like Davis when he said we could easily leave the EU. So easy that he spent 12 months leading the task and then nobly resigned

Like I said, it's a join only club.

 

[exchemist]

I doubt it.


I've heard the Norway model is being discussed, but Brussels not wanting the Swiss model. What's your source on them being offered directly? As far as I can tell there's two hugely inefficient bureaucracies trying to make something happen, while both see a zero sum game.

Norway is the model most of us who wanted to remain would favour and it is the one business overwhelmingly favours too.

Barnier spelled out the alternatives in his famous "staircase" chart, which illustrated all the potential models the EU and the UK could easily implement since templates already exist, i.e. no special treaty changes needed , or new precedents to upset other members: Stairway to Brexit: Barnier maps out UK's Canadian path | Reuters

He came down on the Canada model due to considering the British PM's stated "red lines", i.e. her overriding political objectives. but he was willing to consider others if she would bend her red lines.

It's not a zero sum game. It is a net negative game. In all scenarios, both sides can only lose, economically at least. The object to make the negative effects for both sides as small as possible, subject to the political objectives that constrain them.

 

[Altfish]

Like I said, it's a join only club.

I see you omitted the first sentence! Just to remind you... We wrote the rules for leaving.

 

[exchemist]

If the Remainers had got behind the true Peoples Vote instead of calling for this Losers Vote, we would be dictating our terms to the EU.

And they would just say no. As they are doing.

The UK is a market of 50 million. The EU is a market of 500 million. There is nothing the UK has got that the EU needs badly enough that they would ruin their treaty-based system for, to give us special treatment.

The UK's negotiating power is close to zero. We cannot even refuse to pay most of the agreed exit bill, unless we are willing to break the law and suffer the indignity of an international dispute that would eventually find against us. They are over half our entire export market. If we were to go the antagonistic route, they could make it difficult for us to trade with them and strangle us. And Trump's USA would not lift a finger to help us.