I don't believe Trump has a chance unless the Democrats do something stupid enraging the voters.
Don't you remember 2004? Or 2016?
Bush managed to win the election by starting a war. And his supporters Swiftboated Kerry. A huge campaign of lies, but but by the time the ill informed USA electorate realized that Bush was president.
In 2016, Trump lost the election by millions. But Sanders and the polls helped keep the Democrats at home in just enough states to put Trump in the White House. The perfect trumped the better.
I am one of the voters that voted 3rd party because I couldn't stand either Trump or Hillary.
You realize that was a vote for Trump, right? It shouldn't be that way, but it is. What you effectively voted for was "whoever wins the EC".
The base is not enough to win the election.
Trump will get a lot more votes than just his base. Die hard Christians will vote Trump because their preachers tell them to. SJWs will vote for him by staying home or voting third party. People will forget how much the USA improved while Biden was VP, and talk about what a rapey racist he is.
I don't much care for him. He's too old and too old school. I'd much prefer that the Demopublicans had found a younger version of Sanders. But our lack of elections, our rigged elections, our tendency to believe whatever nonsense our media of choice tells us to believe, etc., strongly suggests to me that our next president will be Trump.
A Trump with no limits to his greed and deceit because he's not going to run for office again and has no reason to care about what happens to the country.
Tom