Truth vs Fact [the coin flip

[ratiocinator]

The coin flipping goblin is guiding the 'probability'?

Take more water with it....?

 

[ratiocinator]

You don't seem to know what 'equally probable' means.

It looks like you're the one with that problem....

'Equally probable', is a fancy way of saying, 'no probability'

No, it isn't.

 

[exchemist]

Fact
Flipping a coin you have just as much chance as getting one side, or the other.

Truth
Flip a coin many times, and you have very little chance of getting a spree of same side ups. Any amount over 10 times, and it's pretty 'interesting', try it. Try to get 10 times same side up.

Now, as a fact, the number does not change, fifty fifty, and even that is abstract, as better put, you have 'just as much chance' of getting a spree as not.

So, try it, do you have 'facts', or is the truth going to present itself?

Start flipping if you want

Arguments, comments welcome

Your terminology is wrong. This does not show a difference between "fact" and "truth". What it shows is the distinction between "probability" and "outcome".

Polymath, being a mathematician, will be able to explain this better than I, but when you do 10 coin flips, the probability of each number of heads and tails outcomes is given by a binomial distribution, in which 10 heads or 10 tails is the least probable and equal numbers of each are most probable but there are also high probabilities of say 6 heads and 4 tails etc. More here: Binomial distribution - Wikipedia

But any particular outcome is possible, including 10 heads. So getting such an outcome does not conflict in any way with what probability predicts.

 

[Nakosis]

Fact
Flipping a coin you have just as much chance as getting one side, or the other.

Truth
Flip a coin many times, and you have very little chance of getting a spree of same side ups. Any amount over 10 times, and it's pretty 'interesting', try it. Try to get 10 times same side up.

Now, as a fact, the number does not change, fifty fifty, and even that is abstract, as better put, you have 'just as much chance' of getting a spree as not.

So, try it, do you have 'facts', or is the truth going to present itself?

Start flipping if you want

Arguments, comments welcome

Truth is in general what people believe in.
Facts don't care what you believe in.

 

[ChristineM]

Fact
Flipping a coin you have just as much chance as getting one side, or the other.

Truth
Flip a coin many times, and you have very little chance of getting a spree of same side ups. Any amount over 10 times, and it's pretty 'interesting', try it. Try to get 10 times same side up.

Now, as a fact, the number does not change, fifty fifty, and even that is abstract, as better put, you have 'just as much chance' of getting a spree as not.

So, try it, do you have 'facts', or is the truth going to present itself?

Start flipping if you want

Arguments, comments welcome

Million to one chances can happen nine times out of ten

 

[PureX]

I don't think it was what the OP meant with his post, that you can "cheat"... but correct me if im wrong?


The obvious conclusion that people might reach is that its definitely not as likely to get a spree as anything else. But the reason is because you have to look at it as a sequence of 10 rolls.

H = heads
T = tails

So getting:

H, H, H, H, H, H, H, H, H, H

Is just as likely as getting

H, H, H, H, H, H, H, H, T, H

That is what you mean right?

Wrong. Think of the Bell Curve. Out of a sample of ten flips, the top of the curve (being the most likely result) is 5-H/5-T. The two extremes of the curve (being the least likely results) are 10-H/0-T and 0-H/10-T. Within the sample size, the further you deviate from the average the less likely will be the result.

 

[Nimos]

Wrong. Think of the Bell Curve. Out of a sample of ten flips, the top of the curve (being the most likely result) is 5-H/5-T. The two extremes of the curve (being the least likely results) are 10-H/0-T and 0-H/10-T. Within the sample size, the further you deviate from the average the less likely will be the result.

Yeah I see what you mean. Mine only apply if its 10 different numbers