Truth vs Fact [the coin flip

[Desert Snake]

Fact
Flipping a coin you have just as much chance as getting one side, or the other.

Truth
Flip a coin many times, and you have very little chance of getting a spree of same side ups. Any amount over 10 times, and it's pretty 'interesting', try it. Try to get 10 times same side up.

Now, as a fact, the number does not change, fifty fifty, and even that is abstract, as better put, you have 'just as much chance' of getting a spree as not.

So, try it, do you have 'facts', or is the truth going to present itself?

Start flipping if you want

Arguments, comments welcome

 

[SalixIncendium]

Fact
Flipping a coin you have just as much chance as getting one side, or the other.

Truth
Flip a coin many times, and you have very little chance of getting a spree of same side ups. Any amount over 10 times, and it's pretty 'interesting', try it. Try to get 10 times same side up.

Now, as a fact, the number does not change, fifty fifty, and even that is abstract, as better put, you have 'just as much chance' of getting a spree as not.

So, try it, do you have 'facts', or is the truth going to present itself?

Start flipping if you want

Arguments, comments welcome

I can flip a coin 10 times and get the same side up 10 times. It's in what side you start up and rotation and height control. That's a fact.

I won a lot of quarters doing this in high school. That's the truth.

 

[Desert Snake]

I can flip a coin 10 times and get the same side up 10 times. It's in what side you start up and rotation and height control. That's a fact.

I won a lot of quarters doing this in high school. That's the truth.

Great.

 

[Desert Snake]

So, variables. Hmm!

 

[Nimos]

I can flip a coin 10 times and get the same side up 10 times. It's in what side you start up and rotation and height control. That's a fact.

I won a lot of quarters doing this in high school. That's the truth.

I don't think it was what the OP meant with his post, that you can "cheat"... but correct me if im wrong?

Fact
Flipping a coin you have just as much chance as getting one side, or the other.

Truth
Flip a coin many times, and you have very little chance of getting a spree of same side ups. Any amount over 10 times, and it's pretty 'interesting', try it. Try to get 10 times same side up.

Now, as a fact, the number does not change, fifty fifty, and even that is abstract, as better put, you have 'just as much chance' of getting a spree as not.

So, try it, do you have 'facts', or is the truth going to present itself?

Start flipping if you want

Arguments, comments welcome

The obvious conclusion that people might reach is that its definitely not as likely to get a spree as anything else. But the reason is because you have to look at it as a sequence of 10 rolls.

H = heads
T = tails

So getting:

H, H, H, H, H, H, H, H, H, H

Is just as likely as getting

H, H, H, H, H, H, H, H, T, H

That is what you mean right?

 

[Desert Snake]

I don't think it was what the OP meant with his post, that you can "cheat"... but correct me if im wrong?


The obvious conclusion that people might reach is that its definitely not as likely to get a spree as anything else. But the reason is because you have to look at, it as a sequence of 10 rolls.

H = heads
T = tails

So getting:

H, H, H, H, H, H, H, H, H, H

Is just as likely as getting

H, H, H, H, H, H, H, H, T, H

That is what you mean right?

Pretty much, yes.

 

[Desert Snake]

If the coin flip is too many variables, then use dice, and increase the rolls, and so forth, however I'm sure we can imagine a situation without repetition problems.

 

[Polymath257]

If you flip a coin 10,000 times, you are pretty likely to get a string of 10 heads.

 

[wellwisher]

In court, one is required to tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. It is phrased this way because one can cherry pick the facts, in such a way, as to misrepresent the truth. The truth is the sum of all the facts, but one fact is subset of the whole truth. One fact can be used out of context to misrepresent the truth.

For example, Joe broke his mother's heirloom vase. He does not wish to get into trouble, so he tries to blame his brother, but without lying; inference. He states the fact that his brother was home all day when the vase was broken. This may be a fact, but it misrepresents the truth about the vase.

Facts, misleading the truth, is what was done during the collusion delusion. Many things were set up by intelligences services, to create facts, such as meetings and comments made. These limited facts were massaged to misrepresent the truth. Others facts that are now being discovered, that show that the original fats were choreographed to create a paper trail. This changes the truth, inferred from the facts.

 

[Desert Snake]

If you flip a coin 10,000 times, you are pretty likely to get a string of 10 heads.

I'LL GO WITH THAT, however what is that saying?

 

[Polymath257]

I'LL GO WITH THAT, however what is that saying?

That even low probability events happen if you do them often enough.

If we had everyone in the USA flip a coin 10 times, there would be hundreds of thousands that will get 10 heads.

For that matter, if you had everyone in the USA flip a coin 20 times, there would be hundreds that get 20 heads.

 

[ratiocinator]

Fact
Flipping a coin you have just as much chance as getting one side, or the other.

Truth
Flip a coin many times, and you have very little chance of getting a spree of same side ups. Any amount over 10 times, and it's pretty 'interesting', try it. Try to get 10 times same side up.

Now, as a fact, the number does not change, fifty fifty, and even that is abstract, as better put, you have 'just as much chance' of getting a spree as not.

So, try it, do you have 'facts', or is the truth going to present itself?

Not entirely sure what your point is. If you flip a coin 10 times there are 2^10 = 1024 different sequences that are possible, all of which are equally probable. There are only two of those sequences that are all the same way up.

 

[Stevicus]

Start flipping if you want

 

[Desert Snake]

Even with the variables in this scenario, according to the 'facts', we shouldn't be noticing anything to mention. In other words, wouldn't even be guessing at the odds, here.

Not entirely sure what your point is. If you flip a coin 10 times there are 2^10 = 1024 different sequences that are possible, all of which are equally probable. There are only two of those sequences that are all the same way up.

The 'fact' that no one notices, or conceptualizes, etc. Yes. Your imaginary fact that has absolutely no relation to how it occurs, etc.

'Equally probable'

 

[Desert Snake]

'Equally probable' in this scenario, means that according to facts,
No 'probability' for either side to show, after a sequence of flips, should present itself.

The truth is that a probability is conceptualized without even realizing it, because it's what is observed.

The truth is what is occuring, the fact is what almost never occurs, ie no pattern same side sprees, total unpredictability , etc.

And that's literal, according to the 'fact', you would have totally random sequences.

 

[ratiocinator]

Even with the variables in this scenario, according to the 'facts', we shouldn't be noticing anything to mention. In other words, wouldn't even be guessing at the odds, here.

We don't have to guess - it's a simple calculation.

The 'fact' that no one notices, or conceptualizes, etc. Yes. Your imaginary fact that has absolutely no relation to how it occurs, etc.

'Equally probable'

I have no idea what you are trying to say. This situation is transparently simple.

Every possible sequence has the same probability of happening (assuming the coin flip really is 50:50). If you are looking at how probable either of two of them are (all the same way up) it's just 2 divided by the total number. In the ten flips, it's about 0.2%.

 

[ratiocinator]

'Equally probable' in this scenario, means that according to facts,
No 'probability' for either side to show, after a sequence of flips, should present itself.

The truth is that a probability is conceptualized without even realizing it, because it's what is observed.

The truth is what is occuring, the fact is what almost never occurs, ie no pattern same side sprees, total unpredictability , etc.

And that's literal, according to the 'fact', you would have totally random sequences.

Nope - I've haven't got a clue what jumble of words means...

Did you generate it by flipping a coin?

 

[Desert Snake]

Oh, and before some esoteric idea is argued, it's quite obvious to demonstrate this truth, as it would be quite silly to predict a huge sequence of same sides, even though according to the 'fact', there should be no reason not to predict that.

 

[Desert Snake]

We don't have to guess - it's a simple calculation.



I have no idea what you are trying to say. This situation is transparently simple.

Every possible sequence has the same probability of happening (assuming the coin flip really is 50:50). If you are looking at how probable either of two of them are (all the same way up) it's just 2 divided by the total number. In the ten flips, it's about 0.2%.

The coin flipping goblin is guiding the 'probability'?

 

[Desert Snake]

Nope - I've haven't got a clue what jumble of words means...

Did you generate it by flipping a coin?

You don't seem to know what 'equally probable' means. 'Equally probable', is a fancy way of saying, 'no probability', [for either side