SurveyUSA poll

[PoetPhilosopher]

SurveyUSA, which assessed this for the 2016 election:

Is polling at this for the 2020 election:

RealClearPolitics - 2020 - Latest 2020 General Election Polls

Thoughts?

I do think it's going to be close race in any case. I also think Biden will be the one to run against Trump.

 

[PoetPhilosopher]

By the way, the first picture came from:

SurveyUSA Election Poll #23226

 

[Augustus]

Thoughts?

Any poll now isn't worth the internet it's printed on.

I'd guess it'll be close enough that any poll between now and the election will be largely meaningless too.

Won't stop millions of words telling boring fairytale narratives ruining thousands of pristine, unspoilt regions of internetz though

 

[sun rise]

I follow Politics – FiveThirtyEight because they not only aggregate polls but also have tracked how well the pollsters did historically. SurveyUSA gets an A ranking from them.

Pollster Ratings

Very long and a bit old, the methodology behind ranking pollsters is I think still relevant How FiveThirtyEight Calculates Pollster Ratings

A site node: primary polling is notoriously inaccurate.

 

[Heyo]

I do think it's going to be close race in any case. I also think Biden will be the one to run against Trump.

This time around it doesn't look as if the DNC is going to rig the election. Warren and Sanders together double the numbers of Biden. If one of them drops out 90% of their voters will switch to the other. The democrat candidate will be a progressive.

 

[9-10ths_Penguin]

By the way, the first picture came from:

SurveyUSA Election Poll #23226

So... a month before the election and with a 3.4% "credibility interval" (is that the same as a confidence interval)? Sure - those numbers don't sound that far off.

 

[Revoltingest]

SurveyUSA, which assessed this for the 2016 election:

View attachment 34960

Is polling at this for the 2020 election:

View attachment 34961

RealClearPolitics - 2020 - Latest 2020 General Election Polls

Thoughts?

I do think it's going to be close race in any case. I also think Biden will be the one to run against Trump.

Biden vs Trump.....Dumb vs Dumber.

OK, that's harsh.
But in my defense, it's an emotion free evidence based insult.

 

[Shadow Wolf]

I think what about if people have consistently failed to realize about the 2016 polls is that indeed they did predict hillary winning the popular vote with an unimpressive margin. Which is what happened. However, most weren't considering the EC,which changed the results though not how people overall voted.

 

[Woberts]

Thanks for reminding me how pathetic Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are. Always brings a smile to my face when I see their polling numbers.

 

[Shadow Wolf]

Biden vs Trump.....Dumb vs Dumber.

OK, that's harsh.
But in my defense, it's an emotion free evidence based insult.

When it comes to Biden, PC libs may show him their agist and racist ways, but he is way ahead in the black community of all his competitors from the polls I've seen.

 

[Revoltingest]

When it comes to Biden, PC libs may show him their agist and racist ways, but he is way ahead in the black community of all his competitors from the polls I've seen.

I don't think Biden is racist...at least, no more than anyone else.
But he is indeed awkward in expressing views with racial aspects.

 

[Revoltingest]

Biden vs Trump.....Dumb vs Dumber.

OK, that's harsh.
But in my defense, it's an emotion free evidence based insult.

Note:
In that post, I might've given the false impression which is Dumber.
It would be a tough call which is which....far above my pay grade.

 

[PureX]

This time around it doesn't look as if the DNC is going to rig the election. Warren and Sanders together double the numbers of Biden. If one of them drops out 90% of their voters will switch to the other. The democrat candidate will be a progressive.

I wouldn't bet money on that, mostly because the big money contributors don't want either of them to win, and in the end the DNC is just as corrupted by all that cash as everyone else is.

 

[Heyo]

I wouldn't bet money on that, mostly because the big money contributors don't want either of them to win, and in the end the DNC is just as corrupted by all that cash as everyone else is.

True. You can always bet on the dems finding a way to screw things up. But this time they face an overwhelming majority of progressive supporters (about 2:1 against the corporatists) that it's unlikely the 2016 tactics would work, that an attempt would massively backfire and they really want to get rid of Trump. I don't know if Warren or Sanders will make it but Biden stands no chance.

 

[PureX]

True. You can always bet on the dems finding a way to screw things up. But this time they face an overwhelming majority of progressive supporters (about 2:1 against the corporatists) that it's unlikely the 2016 tactics would work, that an attempt would massively backfire and they really want to get rid of Trump. I don't know if Warren or Sanders will make it but Biden stands no chance.

Do they really want to get rid of Trump?

It seems to me that mostly what the democrats do is vote however their big corporate sponsors tell them to vote, when no one's looking, and then blame the damage to the American people that results from all that bribery and corruption (that they eagerly participate in), on the republicans. Trump is giving them a HUGE mascot for the blatant greed and corruption to blame for all the damage that they have participated in for over the last 40 years.

Oh boy! We'd better vote for whatever political flunky they run for president (Biden), or we'll get that horrible Donald Trump, again!

And we'll fall for it, as we always do. And as they KNOW we always will.

 

[Heyo]

It seems to me that mostly what the democrats do is vote however their big corporate sponsors tell them to vote, when no one's looking

That's why Sanders and the other justice democrats don't take money from the big donors (and Sanders gets more money in $27 a piece than Biden from his billionair friends).

 

[joe1776]

This time around it doesn't look as if the DNC is going to rig the election. Warren and Sanders together double the numbers of Biden. If one of them drops out 90% of their voters will switch to the other. The democrat candidate will be a progressive.

My thinking exactly and, as a progressive, I hope we're right.

 

[PureX]

That's why Sanders and the other justice democrats don't take money from the big donors (and Sanders gets more money in $27 a piece than Biden from his billionair friends).

But the party is still collectively corrupted. As they collectively receive FAR more from their corporate donors and 'dark money' sources than the progressives among them get from individual donations. So the drive to keep the money train rolling is still very strong, and the drive to dethrone Trump is not so much. Because the truth is that Trump is a fantastic scape-goat for all those corrupt democrats who want to keep taking the bribe money while blaming the damage they do as a result on the republicans.

 

[joe1776]

I wouldn't bet money on that, mostly because the big money contributors don't want either of them to win, and in the end the DNC is just as corrupted by all that cash as everyone else is.

But thanks to Bernie and Warren, accepting big money contributions will come with the burden to prove it doesn't buy favors. This hasn't been so obvious in previous elections.

 

[PureX]

This time around it doesn't look as if the DNC is going to rig the election. Warren and Sanders together double the numbers of Biden. If one of them drops out 90% of their voters will switch to the other. The democrat candidate will be a progressive.

Keep in mind that a democratic vote in a primary election is meaningless. The DNC has no obligation whatever to comply with the results. They can appoint whomever they want as their candidate regardless of who the voters choose at the ballot box.