SurveyUSA poll

[Left Coast]

That 25% number is an absolute minimum. But more importantly that 25% would elect the people in power.

No, it won't. There's another 30% of hardcore Trump supporters you're ignoring.

I didn't make that claim. I pointed out the obvious: It's a reason to doubt any single poll.

It's a reason to doubt polling in general, yes. Specifics need to be demonstrated.

My position is that it isn't logical that Biden would benefit as much from Sanders or Warren dropping out as the Sanders or Warren survivor.

No one has said Biden would benefit as much from Warren/Sanders dropping out as either of the other two. Morning Consult didn't say that either. A plurality of Warren/Sanders voters would likely switch to the other. But Biden will receive a sizeable minority of either cohort.

It didn't take me long to find a poll to support my position:

The YouGov polling 11/2/19 conflicts with the poll you offered.
That Biden's strength as the second choice is the lowest of the three leading candidates makes perfect sense.

Biden 1st choice 25.6 + 2nd choice 8.5 = 34.1
Warren 1st choice 25.1 + 2nd choice 13.6 = 38.7
Sanders 1st choice 14.3 + 2nd choice 10.3 = 24.6

The Impact of Voter Second Choices as 2020 Dems Drop Out | RealClearPolitics

You didn't read carefully. The math you copied and pasted is aggregating all Dem voters' first and second choices, not just the first and second choices of Biden/Sanders/Warren voters. Second, this poll was taken when Warren was surging, so it puts her essentially tied with Biden for first choice. That is not the case anymore, not even close.

When you drill down to second choices for specifically Warren/Sanders voters, these results are very much in alignment with the Morning Consult polling:

The second choice for supporters of the two most liberal candidates is typically (and unsurprisingly) the other liberal. Pluralities of Warren and Sanders supporters list the other as their second choices, with 24% of Warren supporters choosing Sanders and 36% of Sanders supporters choosing Warren (nearly 35% of each candidate’s voters indicated they had no second choice).

So as I said, a plurality of around 30% of the Warren/Sanders folks say they'd opt for the other as a second choice.

Here's another recent Quinnipiac poll finding much the same thing:

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us11262019_uaov531.pdf/

The only way these numbers pan out to a lead over Biden for either Warren or Bernie is if several other candidates drop out and the majority of those cohorts pick them over Biden.

 

[joe1776]

No, it won't. There's another 30% of hardcore Trump supporters you're ignoring.

So, you are you assuming that moderate democrats, republicans and independents are not going to vote if the Dems run a progressive?

You didn't read carefully. The math you copied and pasted is aggregating all Dem voters' first and second choices, not just the first and second choices of Biden/Sanders/Warren voters.

I read carefully. Your point is simply irrelevant to my position because Biden isn't splitting the moderate vote with another strong candidate.

Second, this poll was taken when Warren was surging, so it puts her essentially tied with Biden for first choice. That is not the case anymore, not even close.

Please explain how a wider gap between Warren and Biden has any effect whatsoever on the logical conclusion that Warren or Sanders benefits more when their supporters choose another candidate? Isn't it true that Sanders is rising in the most recent polls?

When you drill down to second choices for specifically Warren/Sanders voters, these results are very much in alignment with the Morning Consult polling

:You're making a completely unsupported claim to support a weakly supported claim.

 

[Left Coast]

So, you are you assuming that moderate democrats, republicans and independents are not going to vote if the Dems run a progressive?

Huh? No, I'm assuming they will vote. Your claim was that the 25% of voters who support "significant change" will elect the people in power. My point was no, they won't, because other people who don't agree with them (the other 75% of the country) will also vote.

Please explain how a wider gap between Warren and Biden has any effect whatsoever on the logical conclusion that Warren or Sanders benefits more when their supporters choose another candidate? Isn't it true that Sanders is rising in the most recent polls?

We seem to be misunderstanding each other. I have not said Biden would benefit more from Warren or Sanders dropping out than either of the other two. The original claim I responded to was that if Warren or Sanders dropped out, 90% of their voters would switch to the other. This is wildly false according to literally every poll I've seen that asks people who their second choice candidate is, and you agreed that this is too high. The polls are averaging that about 30-35% of Warren/Sanders support would go to the other if one of them dropped out, and Biden would receive the 2nd largest minority chunk. Your source agreed with this. Do you disagree with this?

With Biden already solidly leading the pack by at least 10 points (if not more) in most polls, this means when you do the math that he would remain in the lead if Warren or Bernie dropped out. Real Clear Politics is a great aggregating site for polling data if you're interested:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination

You're making a completely unsupported claim to support a weakly supported claim.

I don't see how. I quoted verbatim from your own source, and it agrees with my sources.

 

[joe1776]

Huh? No, I'm assuming they will vote. Your claim was that the 25% of voters who support "significant change" will elect the people in power. My point was no, they won't, because other people who don't agree with them (the other 75% of the country) will also vote.

You are now making a different point. Your earlier point was: No, it won't. There's another 30% of hardcore Trump supporters you're ignoring. It was this point I responded to.

We seem to be misunderstanding each other. I have not said Biden would benefit more from Warren or Sanders dropping out than either of the other two. The original claim I responded to was that if Warren or Sanders dropped out, 90% of their voters would switch to the other. This is wildly false according to literally every poll I've seen that asks people who their second choice candidate is, and you agreed that this is too high. The polls are averaging that about 30-35% of Warren/Sanders support would go to the other if one of them dropped out, and Biden would receive the 2nd largest minority chunk. Your source agreed with this. Do you disagree with this?

This was Heyo's quote which I agreed with except for the 90% number.

This time around it doesn't look as if the DNC is going to rig the election. Warren and Sanders together double the numbers of Biden. If one of them drops out 90% of their voters will switch to the other. The democrat candidate will be a progressive.

You argued against this position offering your poll as evidence. Your claim is that only 30-35% would stay with Warren or Sanders. That's leaves 65 -70% that would go to other candidates. What would Biden's share be (an estimate)?

By my calculations ( and Real Clear Politics current numbers) Joe Biden has 27.8 % of the vote and the other candidates, not including Sanders and Warren, have 29.6%. So, if we assume 67.5% of the progressive votes are lost to Warren/Sanders if either should drop out, Biden who has 48.4% of the non-progressive support will get a share of (rounded) 33% -- the same as Warren/Sanders.

Your numbers aren't realistic.

 

[Left Coast]

You are now making a different point. Your earlier point was: No, it won't. There's another 30% of hardcore Trump supporters you're ignoring. It was this point I responded to.

Nope, same point. The two stats are not mutually exclusive. You need more than 25% of the country to make significant electoral changes, particularly when 30% of the electorate is just as strident on the opposite end of the political spectrum (and they're more consistent voters, as evidenced by your own behavior in 2016 and likely behavior again in 2020).

This was Heyo's quote which I agreed with except for the 90% number.

This time around it doesn't look as if the DNC is going to rig the election. Warren and Sanders together double the numbers of Biden. If one of them drops out 90% of their voters will switch to the other. The democrat candidate will be a progressive.

You argued against this position offering your poll as evidence. Your claim is that only 30-35% would stay with Warren or Sanders. That's leaves 65 -70% that would go to other candidates. What would Biden's share be?

Morning Consult:
Sanders Voters: 26% pick Biden as second choice
Warren Voters: 19% pick Biden as second choice

Quinnipiac:
Sanders Voters: 17% pick Biden as second choice
Warren Voters: 21% pick Biden as second choice

In both cases, Biden earns the 2nd largest share after Warren/Sanders.

 

[joe1776]

Nope, same point. The two stats are not mutually exclusive. You need more than 25% of the country to make significant electoral changes, particularly when 30% of the electorate is just as strident on the opposite end of the political spectrum (and they're more consistent voters, as evidenced by your own behavior in 2016 and likely behavior again in 2020).

One of us is confused about what you're talking about. This is what I'm looking at:

25% progressives and their candidates who give people like me more reason to go to the polls

30% Trumpers

45% voters of all stripe to be persuaded



Using your numbers:

Morning Consult:
Sanders Voters: 26% pick Biden as second choice
And up to 74% would pick Warren

Warren Voters: 19% pick Biden as second choice
And up to 81% would pick Sanders.

So, how did you come up with the estimate that only 30-35% would align with the other progressive candidate?

Heyo's 90% estimate was high but yours is absurdly low.

 

[Left Coast]

One of us is confused about what you're talking about. This is what I'm looking at:

25% progressives and their candidates who give people like me more reason to go to the polls

30% Trumpers

45% voters of all stripe to be persuaded

Correct. So on what planet do 25% of voters "elect the people in power?" No. They don't.

Using your numbers:

Morning Consult:
Sanders Voters: 26% pick Biden as second choice
And up to 74% would pick Warren

Warren Voters: 19% pick Biden as second choice
And up to 81% would pick Sanders.

So, how did you come up with the estimate that only 30-35% would align with the other progressive candidate?

Heyo's 90% estimate was high but yours is absurdly low.

The polls literally say what percentage of each group would pick Warren and Sanders as their 2nd.

Morning Consult
Sanders Voters: 31% Warren 2nd choice, 26% Biden 2nd choice
Warren Voters: 30% Sanders 2nd choice, 19% Biden 2nd choice

Quinnipiac
Sanders Voters: 35% Warren 2nd choice, 17% Biden 2nd choice
Warren Voters: 33% Sanders 2nd choice, 21% Biden 2nd choice

I'm literally saying what the polls are saying. Jesus.

 

[joe1776]

Correct. So on what planet do 25% of voters "elect the people in power?" No. They don't.

The 25% (progressive Democrats) pick the candidate that the other 75% of the country might be persuaded to vote for. The 75%'s other choice is Trump.

The polls literally say what percentage of each group would pick Warren and Sanders as their 2nd.

Morning Consult
Sanders Voters: 31% Warren 2nd choice, 26% Biden 2nd choice
Warren Voters: 30% Sanders 2nd choice, 19% Biden 2nd choice

I'm literally saying what the polls are saying. Jesus

Your post #46 didn't give the same information. In this post, you account for the second choices of only 57% of Sanders voters and 49% of the Warren voters in the Morning Consult poll. (I didn't add the other poll.)

That means that 43% of the Sanders voters and 51% of the Warren voters picked as their second choices candidates (other than Biden) who combined for 29.6% of the vote.

These numbers are saying that 70% of progressive voters for Sanders and Warren will abandon their cause and vote for anybody other than another progressive candidate. That, to me, defies reason. If the numbers are accurate, ideology is a much weaker factor than I thought.

 

[Left Coast]

The 25% (progressive Democrats) pick the candidate that the other 75% of the country might be persuaded to vote for. The 75%'s other choice is Trump.

We hope? At this point Dems are picking Biden unless there's a major shake up (and believe me, I hope there is).

Your post #46 didn't give the same information.

I omitted the Warren/Sanders 2nd choice numbers in post #45 because I had said them multiple times and assumed you'd read the links I posted.

In this post, you account for the second choices of only 57% of Sanders voters and 49% of the Warren voters in the Morning Consult poll. (I didn't add the other poll.)

That means that 43% of the Sanders voters and 51% of the Warren voters picked as their second choices candidates (other than Biden) who combined for 29.6% of the vote.

These numbers are saying that 70% of progressive voters for Sanders and Warren will abandon their cause and vote for anybody other than another progressive candidate. That, to me, defies reason. If the numbers are accurate, ideology is a much weaker factor than I thought.

You're assuming most other progressives think like you, which they don't. Most progressives, for example, voted for Hillary in the general in 2016 because they rationally understood that was the best available option. Most progressives find the idea of voting for Trump to give the country a corruption enema to be a laughably irrational gamble.

Progressives are also concerned about candidate electability, and that seems to be driving a lot of Biden support.

Polling is imperfect and there's still time for things to change. But there's a reason Warren or Sanders haven't dropped out to support the other person and surpass Biden. The numbers don't add up that way.

 

[joe1776]

Polling is imperfect and there's still time for things to change. But there's a reason Warren or Sanders haven't dropped out to support the other person and surpass Biden. The numbers don't add up that way.

The system needs structural change. It has been easily corrupted by money for far too long. Only Warren and Sanders seem to realize it. I'd vote for a Warren/Sanders ticket or a Sanders/Warren ticket. Otherwise, I'll stay home on election day.

I won't vote for Trump but it won't upset me if he beats Biden. Corrupt Presidents have historically been at their worst in their second terms. If he's bad enough, maybe he'll wake people up to the realization that democracy is part of the problem: the People suck at electing good decision-makers. And recognizing the problem is the first step to a solution.