Saudi Arabia's Turn

[Copernicus]

The economic impact is of course hard to gauge at this point, but it is potentially very serious. You're too young to have heard of it first-hand, but there is a scary precedent.

OPEC - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The OPEC crisis was artificial. It was manufactured by a cartel, and Saudi Arabia really controlled it. If the Saudi supply were disrupted, the impact on the world could be catastrophic. Initially, there would be inflation, but Iran and Russia would basically be the countries that controlled what was left of the world's supply. Major businesses would shut down all over the world and agriculture would be severely traumatized. The world has 7 billion mouths to feed, and hundreds of millions are starving now. People would starve in the US as well as elsewhere. Let's not forget who controls Congress. Food stamps are not at the top of their list of priorities, especially if the price of food shoots up dramatically.

 

[England my lionheart]

[youtube]hamKl-su8PE[/youtube]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hamKl-su8PE

 

[Twilight Hue]

Saudi Arabia is one of the most corrupt places on earth. The main reason why their blatant corruption and human rights violations have been tolerated is because they are, as far as we know, the region on this planet with the most oil reserves. They are steeped in oil.

As much as I want to see their corrupt regime toppled, I do worry about how this would affect the world in general. When oil and gas prices go up, everything goes up in price. Most of the world is in some state of recession currently. Everything has a tipping point. Inflation is rampant.

Proceed with caution.

The thing that irks me to no end is knowing there are untapped potentially massive reserves right here in the US and Canada. The Bakken formation comes forefront to mnd.

 

[Copernicus]

The thing that irks me to no end is knowing there are untapped potentially massive reserves right here in the US and Canada. The Bakken formation comes forefront to mnd.

Why does this irk you? The Bakken field contains oil that is notoriously difficult to extract, and estimates of how much oil it contains vary wildly from a few billion to several hundred billion. We are limited in how much we can extract from it, and the US requires 21 billion barrels a day. So it is really only a few day's supply, at best. We are, of course, exploiting all of our remaining resources, including the notoriously risky deepwater offshore drilling. (A new permit was just issued by the government a few days ago.) The reality is that we cannot sustain this level of consumption in a world that has already reached peak oil. China actually now puts more automobiles on the road than the US does, and Indians are trying to come up to speed.

As a world society, we are seriously self-delusional. Our economies are addicted to oil. Sooner or later we will have to face the music. A near-term collapse of oil from Saudi Arabia will force us to face it sooner. Call me selfish, but I would rather put that day off and use the time we have left to developing alternative sources of energy.

 

[Bismillah]

I feel that it is too early to judge the extent of discontent among Saudi Arabians. I remember looking at Tunisia and viewing it as an isolated case that would have no place in authoritarian regime's such as Mubarak's Egypt.

Clearly we are living in a period of unrest and revolution that it it would be unwise to deal in absolutes.

 

[Twilight Hue]

Why does this irk you? The Bakken field contains oil that is notoriously difficult to extract, and estimates of how much oil it contains vary wildly from a few billion to several hundred billion. We are limited in how much we can extract from it, and the US requires 21 billion barrels a day. So it is really only a few day's supply, at best. We are, of course, exploiting all of our remaining resources, including the notoriously risky deepwater offshore drilling. (A new permit was just issued by the government a few days ago.) The reality is that we cannot sustain this level of consumption in a world that has already reached peak oil. China actually now puts more automobiles on the road than the US does, and Indians are trying to come up to speed.

As a world society, we are seriously self-delusional. Our economies are addicted to oil. Sooner or later we will have to face the music. A near-term collapse of oil from Saudi Arabia will force us to face it sooner. Call me selfish, but I would rather put that day off and use the time we have left to developing alternative sources of energy.

Your wayyyy off base in your statistics. Just where in the world did you get that figure? The C.I.A. last placed estimated U.S. consumption in barrels per day at 18,690,000 in 2009. Certainly not even close to the 1 billion bbl category notably short of 21 billion.

The Bakken is alluded to having a potential on producing 3.0 to 4.3 billion based on a USGS report in 2003. Our technology is such now that extraction can arguably be feasible and worth concidering.

Sourcing:

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2174rank.html

USGS Release: 3 to 4.3 Billion Barrels of Technically Recoverable Oil Assessed in North Dakota and Montana’s Bakken Formation—25 Times More Than 1995 Estimate— (4/10/2008 2:25:36 PM)

 

[Copernicus]

Your wayyyy off base in your statistics. Just where in the world did you get that figure? The C.I.A. last placed estimated U.S. consumption in barrels per day at 18,690,000 in 2009. Certainly not even close to the 1 billion bbl category notably short of 21 billion.

21 billion is not that far off from 19 billion. Any way you look at it, the math isn't there for any more than a few days of oil--if we could slurp it up all at once, that is. You are living in denial if you think that we can build a sustainable energy policy on that kind of math.

The Bakken is alluded to having a potential on producing 3.0 to 4.3 billion based on a USGS report in 2003. Our technology is such now that extraction can arguably be feasible and worth concidering.

Well, I was trying to be kind and be willing to concede a few hundred billion, just for the sake of argument, but your 4.3 billion is just a drop in the old gas tank. Oh, and by the way, your modern "technology" includes fracking, which many regard as an environmental disaster. The practice has now been linked to artificially-caused earthquakes, not to mention poisoned ground water. Even if it were feasible, it would not be possible in the short term. Unrest in the Middle East is happening now. It isn't going to wait for us to implement environmentally hazardous energy schemes that will only put the problem off by a few days.

 

[Panda]

21 billion is not that far off from 19 billion. Any way you look at it, the math isn't there for any more than a few days of oil--if we could slurp it up all at once, that is. You are living in denial if you think that we can build a sustainable energy policy on that kind of math.

Um that number is 19 million not billion. 19 billion is 19,000,000,000.

 

[Kathryn]

Yep - million, billion, trillion, brazillion - no one pays close attention to the finer details anymore.

 

[Bismillah]

Of course there is a clear divide from potential alternative energy sources and the reality of oil dependence on the Gulf states. Any serious attempt to change energy reliance would require a complete dismantlement and restructuring of the current economic system to align with the new source of energy as well as breaking free from the hold of oil companies who hold considerable sway over American politics.

We are talking about a long-term shift from oil dependency and that is quite irrelevant in the scope of the present. The question deals with unrest in Saudi Arabia today and its ramifications both locally and globally.

 

[Copernicus]

Um that number is 19 million not billion. 19 billion is 19,000,000,000.

Whoops! You are right. Thank you for the correction. I did misread the figure.

But that does not really alter the ultimate problem. It just makes it a hundred million in 5 days, and a billion barrels in just 2 months. At that amount, the formation is still going to last the US less than a year if the (let's say) 5 billion barrel estimate is correct and if we could extract all of it and keep it in the US market. Not only is the technology for extraction difficult, but it is environmentally dangerous. We have used up most of the vast US oil supplies that once existed, and we are down to drilling offshore and going after oil locked in shale and sands. The majority of the world's oil supply is in Saudi Arabia, other areas in the Middle East, and Russia.

BTW, Russia has let it be known that they oppose all UN intervention to end the bloodshed in Libya. The crisis there has driven the price of oil way up, and--no surprise here--the value of the ruble with it. NATO will probably intervene, because Europe is locked in an economic war with Russia not to become their energy slaves. So far, they are losing that war, and Libya is shaping up to be an important battleground. I expect NATO to impose a no-fly zone on Qaddafi, if the French decide it is in their interest to stop blocking it.

 

[esmith]

I really don't think that Saudi Arabia will have any problems. You must remember that Saudi Arabia is the most conservative Islamic country in the world. No other religious ministers, priest, rabbi,etc are allowed into the country. Other religions are allowed to practice their religion, but only in a private home.

 

[croak]

I really don't think that Saudi Arabia will have any problems. You must remember that Saudi Arabia is the most conservative Islamic country in the world. No other religious ministers, priest, rabbi,etc are allowed into the country. Other religions are allowed to practice their religion, but only in a private home.

I'm not sure where you're going with this. Do you think all Saudi Muslims appreciate how their country is being run?

 

[esmith]

I'm not sure where you're going with this. Do you think all Saudi Muslims appreciate how their country is being run?

Let's look at it this way. For probably the majority of male Muslims the status quo is acceptable. Only the women may have a problem with the current situation, but they have almost zero say. The religious police have a stranglehold on the country, even the Saudi royalty is very aware of their power. So long as the oil money is flowing to the population they are not going to say anything.

 

[croak]

Let's look at it this way. For probably the majority of male Muslims the status quo is acceptable. Only the women may have a problem with the current situation, but they have almost zero say. The religious police have a stranglehold on the country, even the Saudi royalty is very aware of their power. So long as the oil money is flowing to the population they are not going to say anything.

Did you read the article I posted?

 

[xkatz]

Agree with EP. My opinion as an outsider is Saudi's gov't is the one that needs to go down most of all, as well as Iran's, of course.

The same goes for the UK as well

 

[esmith]

Did you read the article I posted?

If you are referring to your first post, Yes. It is the Shia Muslims who are having a problem and they are in a minority in Saudi Arabia. There is no way that the Wahhabi branch of the Sunni's, which is in the majority, is going to have any problem with the Shia sect.

 

[Copernicus]

...There is no way that the Wahhabi branch of the Sunni's, which is in the majority, is going to have any problem with the Shia sect.

Hmmm. Are you familiar with the history of the Muslim world?

 

[esmith]

Hmmm. Are you familiar with the history of the Muslim world?

Are you familiar with the Mutaween, or Mutawallees and their atrocities? Here is an example:
http://www.faithfreedom.org/Articles/SKM/inhuman_islamic.htm

 

[croak]

Are you familiar with the Mutaween, or Mutawallees and their atrocities? Here is an example:
http://www.faithfreedom.org/Articles/SKM/inhuman_islamic.htm

The above horrendous incident in Saudi Arabia may sound inhuman to modern society, but it was surely an Islamic act indeed.

I can't think of one Muslim who doesn't find that horrendous and outrageous. Well, one that I know, since we all know there are nutcases in the world.

I tried reading more, but I ended up just skimming. What is your point? Do you think every Saudi supports them? I would find that hard to fathom.

Also, what do you know about Saudi Arabia, other than the atrocities committed there and the religion of the majority?


Saudi Arabia's voices of discontent - Inside Story - Al Jazeera English
I haven't watched it yet myself, but it sounds interesting.