Herd immunity has failed in Sweden as another wave hits

[shunyadragon]

what herd immunity strategy?

ciao

- viole

Herd immunity is when a certain % of the population is immune to the virus due to antibodies from usually being infected or vaccines.. Degrees of immunity are achieved by vaccines. alone. To some extent antibodies are shared in the population.

The strategy is that the natural course of the virus in the population will impart a degree of immunity to the population.

 

[stvdv]

Covid-19: Sweden's herd immunity strategy has failed, hospitals inundated - NZ Herald

I decided to ask my friend who lives in Sweden

He said that the article is partly fake news

 

[Yerda]

Well, they did. Now they have to try it again. Same as those places which had a massive lockdown for months in springs to find themselves overwhelmed again in october, like Italy. Lockdowns also did not work, then.

that fact alone, should show that lockdowns are not differentiating between success and failure. Ergo, they are not necessary. And since they are intrusive, for what concerns basic liberties, they must be avoided.

ciao

- viole

Ok, I see.

You're right when you say they aren't necessary, insofar as the spread of the virus can potentially be controlled without strict national lockdown.

As a last resort lockdown worked well in most places and better the stricter the lockdown. I can understand why Sweden (or anyone else) would try to avoid it but if it's a toss-up between convenience (and some short-term loss of liberty) and avoiding tens of thousands of deaths I'm going to go with avoiding deaths.

By worked well, I mean the incidence and spread of the virus was reduced from levels that are overwhelming the resources available to respond and treat the cases.

 

[Yerda]

Yes, I've just checked and you are quite right. Tegnell indeed aimed simply to (a) shield the most vulnerable and (b ) control the rate of spread enough to avoid overwhelming the health service.

Now, as we get into the cold weather they are having to ramp up the countermeasures, just like everyone else. Whether this represents a "failure" of their policy or not is not very clear to me. If the policy is as I have described it above (which I got from Wiki), then more severe countermeasures in winter are fully consistent with that policy, rather than representing any abandonment of it.

It looks, rather, as if there is a convergence of Swedish measures and those taken elsewhere. Almost nobody has gone for a full lockdown this autumn (schools still open, people still working, etc.), but with a clampdown on socialising and hospitality. The Swedes now seem to be ending up in a similar spot.

Good points.

I think that it might have been within the realm of feasibility for a country like Sweden to manage to sneak through without the most stringent measures. Most of the country is sparse in population compared to Italy or Spain for instance and I'm guessing the modellers saw a possible path to the other side that didn't involve catastrophe for the healthcare system or lockdown. I'm guessing though.

 

[exchemist]

Good points.

I think that it might have been within the realm of feasibility for a country like Sweden to manage to sneak through without the most stringent measures. Most of the country is sparse in population compared to Italy or Spain for instance and I'm guessing the modellers saw a possible path to the other side that didn't involve catastrophe for the healthcare system or lockdown. I'm guessing though.

Yeah, but lockdown, schmockdown - what does anyone mean by lockdown? They are introducing some more severe countermeasures, that's all. It's nothing remotely like what France or the UK had in the spring - and actually rather similar to the countermeasures we have in the UK now, which are nothing like a full lockdown.

It seems to me everyone is coming round to a rather similar set of conclusions about what you need to do. The main variables are probably those you mention: population density, degree of compliance and health system capacity.

 

[metis]

It's mostly about masks and social distancing, thus all else are just side-bars. Eastern Asians, Aussies, and the New Zealanders have shown us the way, thus keeping their numbers way down.

 

[viole]

My post wasn't addressed to you, it was @Twilight Hue who stated lockdown was crazy

oops

However, lessons have been learned from the first wave. Lockdown works, i, among others, am happy to be doing something positive to help reduce the spread of the virus and consistently saving lives even if that something is doing nothing.

I have never said anything about the failure in Sweden

Well, of course they work. If everybody is locked at home, there is no possible virus spread. Inducing a coma could also cure from a strong migraine. The question is whether are less intrusive cures..

i postulate that there are other methods which can work, without locking all people at home, closing schools, causing intolerable loneliness in nursery homes, etc . Actually, soft restrictions are more sustainable, while a complete lockdown is not. And when things are not sustainable, then they will cause a jo-jo effect with repetitive lockdowns, until people will start not caring anymore.

again, Switzerland was hit by arguably the strongest wave in all of Europe. Pro capita. Yet, we seem to get out of that without massive restrictions, only localized ones.

And, if it is true that all neighboring EU country will close their ski resorts in panic, that will be huge opportunity for Switzerland to save the tourism industry. This winter, at least.

ciao

- viole

 

[viole]

Herd immunity is when a certain % of the population is immune to the virus due to antibodies from usually being infected or vaccines.. Degrees of immunity are achieved by vaccines. alone. To some extent antibodies are shared in the population.

The strategy is that the natural course of the virus in the population will impart a degree of immunity to the population.

I know what herd immunity is. I asked what herd immunity strategy.

I am Swede, and I am not aware of any swedish strategy to achieve controlled herd immunity.

ciao

- viole

 

[ChristineM]

oops



Well, of course they work. If everybody is locked at home, there is no possible virus spread. Inducing a coma could also cure from a strong migraine. The question is whether are less intrusive cures..

i postulate that there are other methods which can work, without locking all people at home, closing schools, causing intolerable loneliness in nursery homes, etc . Actually, soft restrictions are more sustainable, while a complete lockdown is not. And when things are not sustainable, then they will cause a jo-jo effect with repetitive lockdowns, until people will start not caring anymore.

again, Switzerland was hit by arguably the strongest wave in all of Europe. Pro capita. Yet, we seem to get out of that without massive restrictions, only localized ones.

And, if it is true that all neighboring EU country will close their ski resorts in panic, that will be huge opportunity for Switzerland to save the tourism industry. This winter, at least.

ciao

- viole

Softer measures would be fine if Joe public abided by them. America is a prime example of softer measures not working because of human cussedness and the "i have my rights so **** you" attitude

Oh and get your ski trade in while you can, france france will be opening its ski resorts on 15 January if new case targets meet projection

 

[viole]

Ok, I see.

You're right when you say they aren't necessary, insofar as the spread of the virus can potentially be controlled without strict national lockdown.

As a last resort lockdown worked well in most places and better the stricter the lockdown. I can understand why Sweden (or anyone else) would try to avoid it but if it's a toss-up between convenience (and some short-term loss of liberty) and avoiding tens of thousands of deaths I'm going to go with avoiding deaths.

By worked well, I mean the incidence and spread of the virus was reduced from levels that are overwhelming the resources available to respond and treat the cases.

could be. But avoiding a national lockdown works fine where I live now. Even after having been hit pretty heavily. Now RT is well below 1, without locking anyone at home.

and if I look at places like Italy, and France, which had a massive lockdown in spring, it does not look they have less deaths. In total.

Ciao

- viole

 

[viole]

Softer measures would be fine if Joe public abided by them. America is a prime example of softer measures not working because of human cussedness and the "i have my rights so **** you" attitude

Oh and get your ski trade in while you can, france france will be opening its ski resorts on 15 January if new case targets meet projection

Yes, and they will miss the ski season during the festivities. Thanks.

French, Germans, Austrians and Italians are welcome, as some people here already declared

Ciao

- viole

 

[ChristineM]

Yes, and they will miss the ski season during the festivities. Thanks.

French, Germans, Austrians and Italians are welcome, as some people here already declared

Ciao

- viole

At least travel restrictions should be lifted then so skiers may make a dash to the Swiss side of the border

Here is a synopsis of Macrons speech last night about proposed easing if restrictions if you are interested.


Coronavirus Facts and Information thread:

At least the should be able to have emergency hair surgery, i am in desperate need

 

[Daemon Sophic]

“Herd immunity” is really only achieved when greater than 70 or even 90%, at a minimum, of the general population has been exposed to the virus or vaccine. This also assumes that once having been exposed you are forever immune to catching it again (but we won’t bother considering that just now).

Sweden has 10 million people. If we allow 80% (a more reasonable estimate) as needed to achieve herd immunity, then 8 million of them must be exposed. Doing this the natural method, with disease, not vaccine, then herd immunity comes at the expense of roughly 200,000 deaths in Sweden. (2.5% fatality rate x 8 million). Never you mind the 300K to 500K with lasting damage to their lungs, kidneys, brains and hearts.
Now, assuming immunity lasts more than 1 year, Sweden is mostly safe.

Or.....

You mandate masks and social distancing, you shut down unnecessary businesses (and/or mandate stingent limited traffic and cleaning procedures) and get through till spring of 2021 with <5% infected (=500,000 cases with 12,500 deaths and 18 to 32K long term issues). Then vaccinate 95% of the population and live well and safely.

200,000 deaths vs 12,500
plus ~400K damaged vs 25K damaged

Thats almost 180,000 lives saved and 350,000 people without long term organ issues, and all the costs that has yet to entail.
Also, business is NOT going to sing merrily along with death sweeping through the population at the natural disease’s pace. No. It will not. So stop deluding yourself that it will child.

If you’re curious as to USA numbers, that’s easy. Just multiply everything I said above by 33.
a.k.a. - 6,600,000 deaths and 13,200,000 injured the natural method.
vs. 412,500 dead and 825,000 injured by taking precautions till mandatory (>95%) vaccinations.



PS...
My estimates for the natural method are likely too low, since I’m assuming herd immunity after only 80% infection. 95% would be a better/more reasonable estimate.

PPS - luckily, Sweden never even came close to the percentages they needed for immunity in the “first wave”.

 

[Twilight Hue]

I decided to ask my friend who lives in Sweden

He said that the article is partly fake news

Best always to ask those who live there.

 

[Twilight Hue]

I know what herd immunity is. I asked what herd immunity strategy.

I am Swede, and I am not aware of any swedish strategy to achieve controlled herd immunity.

ciao

- viole

I heard that wasn't the actual strategy either.

Was it to keep the economy intact?

 

[shunyadragon]

I know what herd immunity is. I asked what herd immunity strategy.

I am Swede, and I am not aware of any swedish strategy to achieve controlled herd immunity.

ciao

- viole

True, Swedish strategy was not a goal of herd immunity. Basically the 'herd immunity' strategy is to let the course of nature alone to resolve the pandemic.

 

[ecco]

what I am saying is that this second resurgence hits most of Europe. Sweden, like Italy, France, Austria. Especially countries which started a massive and total lockdown in spring.

So, to say that Sweden experienced a second wave because it did not implement a lockdown in spring, is obviously irrational.

and if I look at places like Italy, and France, which had a massive lockdown in spring, it does not look they have less deaths. In total.

You are ignoring the fact that the illnesses and deaths began to rise after the countries reduced the restrictions and opened up the economy again.


In the US ND and SD have among the highest per capita death rates in the world. The Gov of SD still refuses to issue a mask mandate.

 

[shunyadragon]

You are ignoring the fact that the illnesses and deaths began to rise after the countries reduced the restrictions and opened up the economy again.


In the US ND and SD have among the highest per capita death rates in the world. The Gov of SD still refuses to issue a mask mandate.

Government regulations and guidelines only help if people follow the guidelines that are well known world wide. If people do not use masks, social distance and limit their social activity they spread COVID-19. Simply the facts that track COVID-19 in political campaigns, church services, and other large social gatherings.

 

[metis]

In the US ND and SD have among the highest per capita death rates in the world. The Gov of SD still refuses to issue a mask mandate.

Two hours ago, my niece called from Minot, ND, and she's in the hospital and is not in good shape, and it does appear she has the covid but they won't know for sure until tomorrow. She has most of recognizable symptoms of it but also some of the more severe ones, such as heart irregularities and other bodily disfunctions, and she's being closely monitored. She believes it's likely that she got it from one or both of her kids as they are still doing in-school teaching there, which is totally nuts, imo.

As far as I'm concerned, the governor there and in SD should be arrested on charges of negligent homicide as those two states have the highest covid rate in the world!

 

[Yerda]

could be. But avoiding a national lockdown works fine where I live now. Even after having been hit pretty heavily. Now RT is well below 1, without locking anyone at home.

and if I look at places like Italy, and France, which had a massive lockdown in spring, it does not look they have less deaths. In total.

Ciao

- viole

Think how many more would be dead if they hadn't locked down.