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Herd immunity has failed in Sweden as another wave hits

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by Stevicus, Nov 22, 2020 at 7:04 AM.

  1. Stevicus

    Stevicus Veteran Member
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    Covid-19: Sweden's herd immunity strategy has failed, hospitals inundated - NZ Herald

    Well, there's a novel idea: A national leader admitting he was wrong.

    So, they were hoping that Swedes would voluntarily exercise personal responsibility and follow the guidelines without a government mandate. But apparently, that didn't happen.

     
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  2. ChristineM

    ChristineM "Be strong" I whispered to my coffee.
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    What is this world coming to???
     
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  3. stvdv

    stvdv Well-Known Member

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    I have a different view on all of this
     
  4. stvdv

    stvdv Well-Known Member

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    Indeed, that is what I wonder too.
     
  5. exchemist

    exchemist Well-Known Member

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    Interesting, but what I would like to see is what proportion of the population is now thought have had the virus and is presumably immune.

    You won't get much reduction in the rate of spread until 30-40% of the population has had it, I'd have thought. I can only assume Tegnell must have hoped for numbers like that going into Autumn, but actually only maybe 15% of the people have had it, hence this explosion in cases now. Or something like that. It would be really interesting to see the numbers.
     
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  6. shunyadragon

    shunyadragon shunyadragon
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    Herd immunity is very much misunderstood and as believed by many, and in today's world it is meme myth promoted by foolish wishful thinking. Actually Sweden did not propose their strategy as herd immunity. They actually expected the COVID-19 pandemic to pass with only minimal to moderate precautions. On the other hand President Trump and the conservatives of the USA, and Brazil believed the pandemic did not exist or would pass quickly, and actively advocated avoiding preventive measures, and actively spread COVID-19 with their activities. I call this strategy 'Conservative Eugenics' or thinning the herd.

    The concept of herd immunity is a long term development of immunity in populations in varying degrees with different viruses. Vaccines can contribute to herd immunity in the resistance to some viruses.

    It is well known the populations in regions develop genetic resistance to clades of viruses like the coronaviruses that COVID-19 is a part of in the Orient. The genetic resistance to clades of related viruses to COVID-19 ins highest in the region of Southeast Asia where the animals that the virus comes from that carry the virus, but the Orient in general appears to have some genetic resistance to these coronaviruses. This has been demonstrated when Europeans moved into the Americans carrying, diseases like Small Pox which was devastating to native populations.
     
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  7. stvdv

    stvdv Well-Known Member

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    I saw them mentioning that number somewhere in the end of the article
     
  8. Jaiket

    Jaiket Well-Known Member

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    I don't think Swedish authorities were aiming for herd immunity. They just seemed to think they could control the spread without lockdown.
     
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  9. exchemist

    exchemist Well-Known Member

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    Yes, I've just checked and you are quite right. Tegnell indeed aimed simply to (a) shield the most vulnerable and (b ) control the rate of spread enough to avoid overwhelming the health service.

    Now, as we get into the cold weather they are having to ramp up the countermeasures, just like everyone else. Whether this represents a "failure" of their policy or not is not very clear to me. If the policy is as I have described it above (which I got from Wiki), then more severe countermeasures in winter are fully consistent with that policy, rather than representing any abandonment of it.

    It looks, rather, as if there is a convergence of Swedish measures and those taken elsewhere. Almost nobody has gone for a full lockdown this autumn (schools still open, people still working, etc.), but with a clampdown on socialising and hospitality. The Swedes now seem to be ending up in a similar spot.
     
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  10. ecco

    ecco Veteran Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  11. Twilight Hue

    Twilight Hue The gentle embrace of twilight has become my guide

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    They still are not going into the lockdown craziness like the UK has done.
     
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  12. sun rise

    sun rise "This is the Hour of God"
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    To me all the selfishness and the consequences of selfishness and lack of maturity is becoming more apparent.
     
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  13. sun rise

    sun rise "This is the Hour of God"
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    That would not be needed if people were indeed responsible and thoughtful.
     
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  14. ChristineM

    ChristineM "Be strong" I whispered to my coffee.
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    i agree, it is particularly apparent in the US and UK
     
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  15. viole

    viole Metaphysical Naturalist
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  16. viole

    viole Metaphysical Naturalist
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    Well, they did. Now they have to try it again. Same as those places which had a massive lockdown for months in springs to find themselves overwhelmed again in october, like Italy. Lockdowns also did not work, then.

    that fact alone, should show that lockdowns are not differentiating between success and failure. Ergo, they are not necessary. And since they are intrusive, for what concerns basic liberties, they must be avoided.

    ciao

    - viole
     
  17. ChristineM

    ChristineM "Be strong" I whispered to my coffee.
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    Or France or Germany (to a lesser extent) and other countries who have learned from the first wave, lockdown works. So what is crazy about attempting to save lives?
     
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  18. exchemist

    exchemist Well-Known Member

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    What lockdown craziness would that be, then? The schools are open. Those that cannot work from home are still going to work. So the economy is still basically running, except for the hospitality sector, and non-essential retail, those are the environments in which many people pass on the infection - which we know from the test and trace system.
     
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  19. viole

    viole Metaphysical Naturalist
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    I never said it is crazy. I said it is not necessary. I see that in Switzerland today. We managed to bring down Rt without any lockdown, despite having had the biggest growth pro capita. And in several cantons with huge peak, things are back to normal without sending people in house arrest, closing restaurants or, Thor forbid, schools.

    And in the cantons where things are more serious, we simply need to implement already available criteria which determine who has access to that remaining bed, in case of conflict. For instance, a current idea in Switzerland is to exclude negationists from the right of ICU, in case they get corona, and there are not enough beds.

    But If some nations feel more confortable and prefer to be locked down at home without maybe a real reason, they can do if they want. We simply believe that the right to be cured is just one of many rights. Including work, freedom of movement and education. And we should not sacrifice all to only one, but we should try to sort of optimize them all. In a sustainable way.

    what I am saying is that this second resurgence hits most of Europe. Sweden, like Italy, France, Austria. Especially countries which started a massive and total lockdown in spring.

    So, to say that Sweden experienced a second wave because it did not implement a lockdown in spring, is obviously irrational.

    Ciao

    - viole
     
    #19 viole, Nov 22, 2020 at 12:41 PM
    Last edited: Nov 22, 2020 at 12:48 PM
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  20. ChristineM

    ChristineM "Be strong" I whispered to my coffee.
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    My post wasn't addressed to you, it was @Twilight Hue who stated lockdown was crazy

    However, lessons have been learned from the first wave. Lockdown works, i, among others, am happy to be doing something positive to help reduce the spread of the virus and consistently saving lives even if that something is doing nothing.

    I have never said anything about the failure in Sweden
     
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