BSM1
What? Me worry?
Can you show me where some scientist (by name) has definitely and emphatically stated that this was caused by empirically proven 'climate change'?
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Global warming 2020
- Thread starter shunyadragon
- Start date
Can you show me where some scientist (by name) has definitely and emphatically stated that this was caused by empirically proven 'climate change'?
Scientists cannot state, 'definitely and emphatically stated that this was caused by empirically proven 'climate change' You need to contact a higher power for that authority . . . maybe God.
. . . but nonetheless I may provide scientific references to support this, which is global warming has increased the intensity of hurricanes and monsoon seasons, and raises the sea level as the polar ice and glacier ice melts..
To boot, scientists do not empirically prove anything.
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Most people are familiar with what are called Ice Caps as the polar Ice Capes. The definition of Ice Capes is where ice sheets begin and and radiate outward. Ice Caps form at differnt places at the poles.
Source: A Pair of Canadian Ice Caps Has Disappeared Completely
A Pair of Canadian Ice Caps Has Disappeared Completely
Yessenia Funes
A set of polar ice caps has literally disappeared. We don’t need any more evidence that the Earth is warming to the point of mass instability, but this latest discovery is unsettling, to say the least.
Scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) said last week that the St. Patrick Bay ice caps in the northeastern Ellesmere Island in Nunavut, Canada, are nowhere to be seen on satellite imagery. Researchers long suspected that this would be possible, but the prediction has come a bit sooner than expected.
An ice cap is a sort of mini-glacier. These formations stretch less than 19,300 square miles, so they’re smaller than ice sheets. The St. Patrick Bay ice caps were truly tiny: In 1959, the largest one was merely 2.9 square miles, and the smaller one was only 1.1 square miles. By 2001, the two ice caps had shrunk to 62% and 58% of their 1959 size, respectively.
In 2017, a team published a paper suggesting that the ice caps would be gone in the next five years due to rapidly warming temperatures in the Arctic. Well, seems it was more like three years. The ice caps are missing in satellite photos from July 14, 2020. This year has been especially brutal throughout the region. Recent months have been plagued by heatwaves and wildfires across the Arctic. This extreme heat likely contributed to the melting of the ice caps. Research has found that summers in the region haven’t been this warm in 115,000 years.
Source: A Pair of Canadian Ice Caps Has Disappeared Completely
A Pair of Canadian Ice Caps Has Disappeared Completely
Yessenia Funes
A set of polar ice caps has literally disappeared. We don’t need any more evidence that the Earth is warming to the point of mass instability, but this latest discovery is unsettling, to say the least.
Scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) said last week that the St. Patrick Bay ice caps in the northeastern Ellesmere Island in Nunavut, Canada, are nowhere to be seen on satellite imagery. Researchers long suspected that this would be possible, but the prediction has come a bit sooner than expected.
An ice cap is a sort of mini-glacier. These formations stretch less than 19,300 square miles, so they’re smaller than ice sheets. The St. Patrick Bay ice caps were truly tiny: In 1959, the largest one was merely 2.9 square miles, and the smaller one was only 1.1 square miles. By 2001, the two ice caps had shrunk to 62% and 58% of their 1959 size, respectively.
In 2017, a team published a paper suggesting that the ice caps would be gone in the next five years due to rapidly warming temperatures in the Arctic. Well, seems it was more like three years. The ice caps are missing in satellite photos from July 14, 2020. This year has been especially brutal throughout the region. Recent months have been plagued by heatwaves and wildfires across the Arctic. This extreme heat likely contributed to the melting of the ice caps. Research has found that summers in the region haven’t been this warm in 115,000 years.
Canada' last Ice Shelf has become a g;acier as large as Rhode Island.
Canada’s last intact ice shelf collapses due to warming
Canada’s last intact ice shelf collapses due to warming
Two giant icebergs formed along with lots of smaller ones, and they have started drifting away.
Much of Canada’s remaining intact ice shelf has broken apart into hulking iceberg islands thanks to a hot summer and global warming, scientists said.
Canada’s 4,000-year-old Milne Ice Shelf on the northwestern edge of Ellesmere Island had been the country’s last intact ice shelf until the end of July when ice analyst Adrienne White of the Canadian Ice Service noticed that satellite photos showed that about 43 percent of it had broken off. She said it happened around July 30 or 31.
Two giant icebergs formed along with lots of smaller ones, and they have already started drifting away, White said. The biggest is nearly the size of Manhattan — 21 square miles (55 square kilometers) and 7 miles long (11.5 kilometers). They are 230 to 260 feet (70 to 80 meters) thick.
Canada’s last intact ice shelf collapses due to warming
Canada’s last intact ice shelf collapses due to warming
Two giant icebergs formed along with lots of smaller ones, and they have started drifting away.
Much of Canada’s remaining intact ice shelf has broken apart into hulking iceberg islands thanks to a hot summer and global warming, scientists said.
Canada’s 4,000-year-old Milne Ice Shelf on the northwestern edge of Ellesmere Island had been the country’s last intact ice shelf until the end of July when ice analyst Adrienne White of the Canadian Ice Service noticed that satellite photos showed that about 43 percent of it had broken off. She said it happened around July 30 or 31.
Two giant icebergs formed along with lots of smaller ones, and they have already started drifting away, White said. The biggest is nearly the size of Manhattan — 21 square miles (55 square kilometers) and 7 miles long (11.5 kilometers). They are 230 to 260 feet (70 to 80 meters) thick.
Year to date (January-July) world temperatures put 2020 in competition with the warmest year on recent record. The Southwestern states are breaking all records on high temperatures. and severe drought this summer.
Source: Global Climate Report - July 2020 | State of the Climate | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
Global Climate Report - July 2020
Introduction
Temperature anomalies and percentiles are shown on the gridded maps below. The anomaly map on the left and the percentiles map on the right are a product of a merged land surface temperature (Global Historical Climatology Network, GHCN) and sea surface temperature (ERSST version 5) anomaly analysis. The anomalies maps tell us whether the temperature observed for a specific place and time period was warmer or cooler than a reference value and by how much. While the percentile map provides additional information by placing the temperature anomaly observed into historical perspective, showing how the most current month, season or year compares with the past. Temperature anomalies for land and ocean are analyzed separately and then merged to form the global analysis. For more information, please visit NCEI's Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.
Temperature
In the atmosphere, 500-millibar height pressure anomalies correlate well with temperatures at the Earth's surface. The average position of the upper-level ridges of high pressure and troughs of low pressure—depicted by positive and negative 500-millibar height anomalies on the July 2020 map—is generally reflected by areas of positive and negative temperature anomalies at the surface, respectively.
Monthly Temperature: July 2020
The July 2020 global land and ocean surface temperature of 0.92°C (1.66°F) above the 20th century average tied with 2016 as the second highest July global temperature since records began in 1880. This value was only 0.01°C (0.02°F) shy of tying the record warm July of 2019. July 2020 was the 44th consecutive July and the 427th consecutive month with temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th century average. Nine of the 10 warmest Julys on record have occurred since 2010. The six warmest Julys on record have occurred since 2015.
Global Land and Ocean Temperature Anomalies for July
The month was characterized by warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the global land and ocean surface. The most notable warm temperature departures of +2.0°C (+3.6°F) were present across the North Pacific Ocean, the southwestern and northeastern contiguous U.S., eastern Canada, and across parts of western Asia and eastern Antarctica. Record-warm July temperatures were widespread across the North Indian Ocean, southeastern Asia, and the western Pacific Ocean. Other areas with record-warm July temperatures were present across parts of the Caribbean Sea, northern South America, North America, and the North Pacific Ocean. Overall, July 2020 had 8.67% of the world's land and ocean surfaces with a record July temperature. This was the second highest percentage for July record warm temperatures across the globe since records began in 1951, behind July 2015 (10.23%).
According to the July 2020 percentiles map, cooler-than-average July temperatures were limited to small parts of northern North America, the northern Atlantic Ocean, Scandinavia, eastern China, southern South America, and the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. No land or ocean areas had a record-cold July temperature.
Temperature Percentiles
The global land-only surface temperature for July 2020 was the second highest on record at 1.23°C (2.21°F) above average and only 0.01°C (0.02°F) less than the record-warm July set in 2017. The global ocean-only surface temperature was the third highest on record at 0.80°C (1.44°F) above average. Only July 2016 and 2019 had a higher global ocean surface temperature.
The Northern Hemisphere land and ocean surface temperature was the highest in the 141-year record at 1.18°C (2.12°F) above average. This was 0.08°C (0.14°F) higher than the now second warmest July of 2019.
Warmer-than-average temperatures were present across much of Ontario, Canada, with temperatures ranging between 1.0°–4.0°C (1.8°–7.2°F) above average. Of note, the Moosonee Airport had a mean temperature of 19.2°C (66.6°F), which is 3.4°C (6.1°F) above average and the highest mean temperature recorded in the area.
July 2020 was Spain's third warmest July in the nation's 56-year record. The national temperature of 26.0°C (78.8°F) was 2.0°C (3.6°F) above the 1981–2010 average. Only Julys of 2006 and 2015 were warmer. Eight of Spain's 10 warmest Julys on record have occurred since 2001. The nation's July 2020 maximum temperature was 2.3°C (4.1°F) above average and the second warmest July maximum temperature on record, behind July 2015.
Year-to-date Temperature: January–July 2020
The January–July global land and ocean surface temperature departure was 1.05°C (1.89°F) above average and the second warmest such period in the 141-year record. Only the year-to-date period of 2016 is warmer by 0.04°C (0.07°F). According to a statistical analysis done by NCEI scientist, the year 2020 is very likely to rank among the five warmest years on record.
Temperature Percentiles
During January–July 2020, temperature departures of +2.0°C (+3.6°F) or higher were observed across parts of the North Pacific Ocean and across parts of northern Europe and across much of the northern half of Asia. Record-warm year-to-date temperatures were present across a large portion of northern Asia and across parts of Europe, southern China, Mexico, the Caribbean, South America, and the Atlantic, northern Indian, and Pacific oceans.
© Copyright Original Source
Source: Global Climate Report - July 2020 | State of the Climate | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
Global Climate Report - July 2020
Introduction
Temperature anomalies and percentiles are shown on the gridded maps below. The anomaly map on the left and the percentiles map on the right are a product of a merged land surface temperature (Global Historical Climatology Network, GHCN) and sea surface temperature (ERSST version 5) anomaly analysis. The anomalies maps tell us whether the temperature observed for a specific place and time period was warmer or cooler than a reference value and by how much. While the percentile map provides additional information by placing the temperature anomaly observed into historical perspective, showing how the most current month, season or year compares with the past. Temperature anomalies for land and ocean are analyzed separately and then merged to form the global analysis. For more information, please visit NCEI's Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.
Temperature
In the atmosphere, 500-millibar height pressure anomalies correlate well with temperatures at the Earth's surface. The average position of the upper-level ridges of high pressure and troughs of low pressure—depicted by positive and negative 500-millibar height anomalies on the July 2020 map—is generally reflected by areas of positive and negative temperature anomalies at the surface, respectively.
Monthly Temperature: July 2020
The July 2020 global land and ocean surface temperature of 0.92°C (1.66°F) above the 20th century average tied with 2016 as the second highest July global temperature since records began in 1880. This value was only 0.01°C (0.02°F) shy of tying the record warm July of 2019. July 2020 was the 44th consecutive July and the 427th consecutive month with temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th century average. Nine of the 10 warmest Julys on record have occurred since 2010. The six warmest Julys on record have occurred since 2015.
Global Land and Ocean Temperature Anomalies for July
The month was characterized by warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the global land and ocean surface. The most notable warm temperature departures of +2.0°C (+3.6°F) were present across the North Pacific Ocean, the southwestern and northeastern contiguous U.S., eastern Canada, and across parts of western Asia and eastern Antarctica. Record-warm July temperatures were widespread across the North Indian Ocean, southeastern Asia, and the western Pacific Ocean. Other areas with record-warm July temperatures were present across parts of the Caribbean Sea, northern South America, North America, and the North Pacific Ocean. Overall, July 2020 had 8.67% of the world's land and ocean surfaces with a record July temperature. This was the second highest percentage for July record warm temperatures across the globe since records began in 1951, behind July 2015 (10.23%).
According to the July 2020 percentiles map, cooler-than-average July temperatures were limited to small parts of northern North America, the northern Atlantic Ocean, Scandinavia, eastern China, southern South America, and the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. No land or ocean areas had a record-cold July temperature.
Temperature Percentiles
The global land-only surface temperature for July 2020 was the second highest on record at 1.23°C (2.21°F) above average and only 0.01°C (0.02°F) less than the record-warm July set in 2017. The global ocean-only surface temperature was the third highest on record at 0.80°C (1.44°F) above average. Only July 2016 and 2019 had a higher global ocean surface temperature.
The Northern Hemisphere land and ocean surface temperature was the highest in the 141-year record at 1.18°C (2.12°F) above average. This was 0.08°C (0.14°F) higher than the now second warmest July of 2019.
Warmer-than-average temperatures were present across much of Ontario, Canada, with temperatures ranging between 1.0°–4.0°C (1.8°–7.2°F) above average. Of note, the Moosonee Airport had a mean temperature of 19.2°C (66.6°F), which is 3.4°C (6.1°F) above average and the highest mean temperature recorded in the area.
July 2020 was Spain's third warmest July in the nation's 56-year record. The national temperature of 26.0°C (78.8°F) was 2.0°C (3.6°F) above the 1981–2010 average. Only Julys of 2006 and 2015 were warmer. Eight of Spain's 10 warmest Julys on record have occurred since 2001. The nation's July 2020 maximum temperature was 2.3°C (4.1°F) above average and the second warmest July maximum temperature on record, behind July 2015.
Year-to-date Temperature: January–July 2020
The January–July global land and ocean surface temperature departure was 1.05°C (1.89°F) above average and the second warmest such period in the 141-year record. Only the year-to-date period of 2016 is warmer by 0.04°C (0.07°F). According to a statistical analysis done by NCEI scientist, the year 2020 is very likely to rank among the five warmest years on record.
Temperature Percentiles
During January–July 2020, temperature departures of +2.0°C (+3.6°F) or higher were observed across parts of the North Pacific Ocean and across parts of northern Europe and across much of the northern half of Asia. Record-warm year-to-date temperatures were present across a large portion of northern Asia and across parts of Europe, southern China, Mexico, the Caribbean, South America, and the Atlantic, northern Indian, and Pacific oceans.
© Copyright Original Source
Not sure what you mean by the best best example. No the desert is not a good example, because the deserts were never truely habitable. It is the regions around the deserts that are becoming not habitable in part due to the lack of water and farmable land.
The best examaple I have is direct experience. In China I saw the border areas of the Gobi Dessert that used to be farmland, and they are no longer habitable with dunes and wind blown silt covering what was farmland and ricefields, and abandoned resifences and towns.
BSM1
What? Me worry?
I guess anecdotal evidence is as good as any to bolster an untenable position.
exchemist
Veteran Member
But I notice you ignored post 23.
It is not anecdotal, because I personally followed the Gobi Desert boundary, and documented the change in recent history from Liaoning Proovince next to Korea in the Raet to Xinjiang Province in the far West, and photographed the evidence of change. I am an environmental geologist. I was with a group of geologists and other scientists on a tour accross the region where the climate is changing, and people were abandoning the land.
There are many many reference to these changes around the world. I just referenced the general summary and yes it has references, and if you wish you can simple search the internet and find many peer reviewed articles on the subject.
Also the abandonment of Attolls in the Pacific is documented due to rising sea levels, and apparently you ignored the post.
It is your position that is unteniable.
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BSM1
What? Me worry?
Can you name one creditable source that has put their name to any statement saying "global warming" is the sole cause for the deserts (or anywhere for that matter) getting hotter?
While we're at it:
As usual you are making minefield challenges, like saying 'sole' cause, but yes all the references I have provided references that yes, our global warming is by far dominantely caused by human polution of CO2 and other gases that cause global warming. Have you read these references?
Your reference state that 500 scientists, not all scientist, but also commentatories supported the foolish notion that global warming 'is not an emergency and not whether it has a human cause.
First part of the consensus od support of human caused Global Warming"
Scientific consensus on climate change - Wikipedia.
Consensus points
The current scientific consensus is that:
This scientific opinion is expressed in synthesis reports, by scientific bodies of national or international standing, and by surveys of opinion among climate scientists. Individual scientists, universities, and laboratories contribute to the overall scientific opinion via their peer-reviewed publications, and the areas of collective agreement and relative certainty are summarised in these respected reports and surveys.[15] The IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) was completed in 2014.[16] Its conclusions are summarized below:
The warming influence of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased substantially over the last several decades. In 2017, the AGGI was 1.42, which represents an increase of more than 40% since 1990.
National and international science academies and scientific societies have assessed current scientific opinion on global warming. These assessments are generally consistent with the conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Some scientific bodies have recommended specific policies to governments, and science can play a role in informing an effective response to climate change. Policy decisions, however, may require value judgements and so are not included in the scientific opinion.[26][27]
No scientific body of national or international standing maintains a formal opinion dissenting from any of these main points. The last national or international scientific body to drop dissent was the American Association of Petroleum Geologists,[28] which in 2007[29] updated its statement to its current non-committal position.[30] Some other organizations, primarily those focusing on geology, also hold non-committal positions.
more to follow. . .
Your reference state that 500 scientists, not all scientist, but also commentatories supported the foolish notion that global warming 'is not an emergency and not whether it has a human cause.
First part of the consensus od support of human caused Global Warming"
Scientific consensus on climate change - Wikipedia.
Consensus points
The current scientific consensus is that:
- Earth's climate has warmed significantly since the late 1800s.[a]
- Human activities (primarily greenhouse gas emissions) are the primary cause.
- Continuing emissions will increase the likelihood and severity of global effects.
- People and nations can act individually and collectively to slow the pace of global warming, while also preparing for unavoidable climate change and its consequences.
This scientific opinion is expressed in synthesis reports, by scientific bodies of national or international standing, and by surveys of opinion among climate scientists. Individual scientists, universities, and laboratories contribute to the overall scientific opinion via their peer-reviewed publications, and the areas of collective agreement and relative certainty are summarised in these respected reports and surveys.[15] The IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) was completed in 2014.[16] Its conclusions are summarized below:
- "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia."[17]
- "Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years."[18]
- Human influence on the climate system is clear.[19] It is extremely likely (95–100% probability)[20] that human influence was the dominant cause of global warming between 1951 and 2010.[19]
- "Increasing magnitudes of [global] warming increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive, and irreversible impacts."[21]
- "A first step towards adaptation to future climate change is reducing vulnerability and exposure to present climate variability."[22]
- "The overall risks of climate change impacts can be reduced by limiting the rate and magnitude of climate change"[21]
- Without new policies to mitigate climate change, projections suggest an increase in global mean temperature in 2100 of 3.7 to 4.8 °C, relative to pre-industrial levels (median values; the range is 2.5 to 7.8 °C including climate uncertainty).[23]
- The current trajectory of global greenhouse gas emissions is not consistent with limiting global warming to below 1.5 or 2 °C, relative to pre-industrial levels.[24] Pledges made as part of the Cancún Agreements are broadly consistent with cost-effective scenarios that give a "likely" chance (66–100% probability) of limiting global warming (in 2100) to below 3 °C, relative to pre-industrial levels.[25]
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The warming influence of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased substantially over the last several decades. In 2017, the AGGI was 1.42, which represents an increase of more than 40% since 1990.
National and international science academies and scientific societies have assessed current scientific opinion on global warming. These assessments are generally consistent with the conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Some scientific bodies have recommended specific policies to governments, and science can play a role in informing an effective response to climate change. Policy decisions, however, may require value judgements and so are not included in the scientific opinion.[26][27]
No scientific body of national or international standing maintains a formal opinion dissenting from any of these main points. The last national or international scientific body to drop dissent was the American Association of Petroleum Geologists,[28] which in 2007[29] updated its statement to its current non-committal position.[30] Some other organizations, primarily those focusing on geology, also hold non-committal positions.
more to follow. . .
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Scientific consensus on climate change - Wikipedia.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007
In February 2007, the IPCC released a summary of the forthcoming Fourth Assessment Report. According to this summary, the Fourth Assessment Report found that human actions are "very likely" the cause of global warming, meaning a 90% or greater probability. Global warming in this case was indicated by an increase of 0.75 degrees in average global temperatures over the last 100 years.[35]
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report stated that:
NASA time-lapse video: Global average temperatures have increased in evolving patterns in which cooler temperatures (shown in blues) have generally changed to warmer temperatures (shown in progressively intense reds).
A retired journalist for The New York Times, William K. Stevens wrote: "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said the likelihood was 90 percent to 99 percent that emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, spewed from tailpipes and smokestacks, were the dominant cause of the observed warming of the last 50 years. In the panel's parlance, this level of certainty is labeled 'very likely'. Only rarely does scientific odds-making provide a more definite answer than that, at least in this branch of science, and it describes the endpoint, so far, of a progression.".[42]
The Associated Press summarized the position on sea level rise:
On sea levels, the report projects rises of 7 to 23 inches by the end of the century. An additional 3.9 to 7.8 inches are possible if recent, surprising melting of polar ice sheets continues.[43]
U.S. Global Change Research Program
Main article: United States Global Change Research Program
The Fourth National Climate Assessment ("NCA4", USGCRP, 2017) includes charts[44] illustrating how human factors, especially accumulation in the atmosphere of greenhouse gases, are the predominant cause of observed global warming.
Thirteen federal agencies, led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), worked together under the auspices of the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) to prepare the country's Fourth National Climate Assessment, published in two volumes as described below.
The Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I (October 2017) provided the following summary:
This assessment concludes, based on extensive evidence, that it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. For the warming over the last century, there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extent of the observational evidence.
Background
Formerly: Climate Change Science Program
The U.S. Global Change Research Program reported in June 2009[45] that:
Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities.
The 2009 report, which is about the effects that climate change is having in the United States, also said:
Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7 °F (3.9 °C). Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested.
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
In 2004, the intergovernmental Arctic Council and the non-governmental International Arctic Science Committee released the synthesis report of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment:[46]
Climate conditions in the past provide evidence that rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are associated with rising global temperatures. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), and secondarily the clearing of land, have increased the concentration of carbon dioxide, methane, and other heat-trapping ("greenhouse") gases in the atmosphere...There is international scientific consensus that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.[47]
more to follow . . .
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007
In February 2007, the IPCC released a summary of the forthcoming Fourth Assessment Report. According to this summary, the Fourth Assessment Report found that human actions are "very likely" the cause of global warming, meaning a 90% or greater probability. Global warming in this case was indicated by an increase of 0.75 degrees in average global temperatures over the last 100 years.[35]
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report stated that:
- Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as evidenced by increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, the widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.[36]
- Most of the global warming since the mid-20th century is very likely due to human activities.[37]
- Benefits and costs of climate change for [human] society will vary widely by location and scale.[38] Some of the effects in temperate and polar regions will be positive, and others elsewhere will be negative.[38] Overall, net effects are more likely to be strongly negative with larger or more rapid warming.[38]
- The range of published evidence indicates that the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant and to increase over time.[39]
- The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded this century by an unprecedented combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g. flooding, drought, wildfire, insects, ocean acidification), and other global change drivers (e.g. land-use change, pollution, fragmentation of natural systems, over-exploitation of resources).[40]
A retired journalist for The New York Times, William K. Stevens wrote: "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said the likelihood was 90 percent to 99 percent that emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, spewed from tailpipes and smokestacks, were the dominant cause of the observed warming of the last 50 years. In the panel's parlance, this level of certainty is labeled 'very likely'. Only rarely does scientific odds-making provide a more definite answer than that, at least in this branch of science, and it describes the endpoint, so far, of a progression.".[42]
The Associated Press summarized the position on sea level rise:
On sea levels, the report projects rises of 7 to 23 inches by the end of the century. An additional 3.9 to 7.8 inches are possible if recent, surprising melting of polar ice sheets continues.[43]
U.S. Global Change Research Program
Main article: United States Global Change Research Program
The Fourth National Climate Assessment ("NCA4", USGCRP, 2017) includes charts[44] illustrating how human factors, especially accumulation in the atmosphere of greenhouse gases, are the predominant cause of observed global warming.
Thirteen federal agencies, led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), worked together under the auspices of the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) to prepare the country's Fourth National Climate Assessment, published in two volumes as described below.
The Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I (October 2017) provided the following summary:
This assessment concludes, based on extensive evidence, that it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. For the warming over the last century, there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extent of the observational evidence.
Background
Formerly: Climate Change Science Program
The U.S. Global Change Research Program reported in June 2009[45] that:
Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities.
The 2009 report, which is about the effects that climate change is having in the United States, also said:
Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7 °F (3.9 °C). Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested.
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
In 2004, the intergovernmental Arctic Council and the non-governmental International Arctic Science Committee released the synthesis report of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment:[46]
Climate conditions in the past provide evidence that rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are associated with rising global temperatures. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), and secondarily the clearing of land, have increased the concentration of carbon dioxide, methane, and other heat-trapping ("greenhouse") gases in the atmosphere...There is international scientific consensus that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.[47]
more to follow . . .
Scientific consensus on climate change - Wikipedia.
Statements by scientific organizations of national or international standing
See also: Global warming controversy § Mainstream scientific position, and challenges to it
This is a list of scientific bodies of national or international standing, that have issued formal statements of opinion, classifies those organizations according to whether they concur with the IPCC view, are non-committal, or dissent from it. The California Governor's Office website lists nearly 200 worldwide scientific organizations hold the position that climate change has been caused by human action.[52]
Concurring
Academies of science (general science)
Since 2001, 34 national science academies, three regional academies, and both the international InterAcademy Council and International Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences have made formal declarations confirming human induced global warming and urging nations to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. The 34 national science academy statements include 33 who have signed joint science academy statements and one individual declaration by the Polish Academy of Sciences in 2007.
Joint national science academy statements
In December 2007, the General Assembly of the Polish Academy of Sciences (Polska Akademia Nauk), which has not been a signatory to joint national science academy statements issued a declaration endorsing the IPCC conclusions, and stating:
it is the duty of Polish science and the national government to, in a thoughtful, organized and active manner, become involved in realisation of these ideas.
Problems of global warming, climate change, and their various negative impacts on human life and on the functioning of entire societies are one of the most dramatic challenges of modern times.
PAS General Assembly calls on the national scientific communities and the national government to actively support Polish participation in this important endeavor.[59]
Statements by scientific organizations of national or international standing
See also: Global warming controversy § Mainstream scientific position, and challenges to it
This is a list of scientific bodies of national or international standing, that have issued formal statements of opinion, classifies those organizations according to whether they concur with the IPCC view, are non-committal, or dissent from it. The California Governor's Office website lists nearly 200 worldwide scientific organizations hold the position that climate change has been caused by human action.[52]
Concurring
Academies of science (general science)
Since 2001, 34 national science academies, three regional academies, and both the international InterAcademy Council and International Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences have made formal declarations confirming human induced global warming and urging nations to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. The 34 national science academy statements include 33 who have signed joint science academy statements and one individual declaration by the Polish Academy of Sciences in 2007.
Joint national science academy statements
- 2001 Following the publication of the IPCC Third Assessment Report, seventeen national science academies issued a joint statement, entitled "The Science of Climate Change", explicitly acknowledging the IPCC position as representing the scientific consensus on climate change science. The statement, printed in an editorial in the journal Science on May 18, 2001,[53] was signed by the science academies of Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, the Caribbean, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Malaysia, New Zealand, Sweden, Turkey, and the United Kingdom.[54]
- 2005 The national science academies of the G8 nations, plus Brazil, China and India, three of the largest emitters of greenhouse gases in the developing world, signed a statement on the global response to climate change. The statement stresses that the scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify nations taking prompt action, and explicitly endorsed the IPCC consensus. The eleven signatories were the science academies of Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.[55]
- 2007 In preparation for the 33rd G8 summit, the national science academies of the G8+5 nations issued a declaration referencing the position of the 2005 joint science academies' statement, and acknowledging the confirmation of their previous conclusion by recent research. Following the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, the declaration states, "It is unequivocal that the climate is changing, and it is very likely that this is predominantly caused by the increasing human interference with the atmosphere. These changes will transform the environmental conditions on Earth unless counter-measures are taken." The thirteen signatories were the national science academies of Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, India, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States.[56]
- 2007 In preparation for the 33rd G8 summit, the Network of African Science Academies submitted a joint "statement on sustainability, energy efficiency, and climate change":
A consensus, based on current evidence, now exists within the global scientific community that human activities are the main source of climate change and that the burning of fossil fuels is largely responsible for driving this change. The IPCC should be congratulated for the contribution it has made to public understanding of the nexus that exists between energy, climate and sustainability.
— The thirteen signatories were the science academies of Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe, as well as the African Academy of Sciences, [57] - 2008 In preparation for the 34th G8 summit, the national science academies of the G8+5 nations issued a declaration reiterating the position of the 2005 joint science academies’ statement, and reaffirming "that climate change is happening and that anthropogenic warming is influencing many physical and biological systems". Among other actions, the declaration urges all nations to "[t]ake appropriate economic and policy measures to accelerate transition to a low carbon society and to encourage and effect changes in individual and national behaviour". The thirteen signatories were the same national science academies that issued the 2007 joint statement.[58]
- 2009 In advance of the UNFCCC negotiations to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009, the national science academies of the G8+5 nations issued a joint statement declaring, "Climate change and sustainable energy supply are crucial challenges for the future of humanity. It is essential that world leaders agree on the emission reductions needed to combat negative consequences of anthropogenic climate change". The statement references the IPCC's Fourth Assessment of 2007, and asserts that "climate change is happening even faster than previously estimated; global CO
2 emissions since 2000 have been higher than even the highest predictions, Arctic sea ice has been melting at rates much faster than predicted, and the rise in the sea level has become more rapid". The thirteen signatories were the same national science academies that issued the 2007 and 2008 joint statements.[49]
In December 2007, the General Assembly of the Polish Academy of Sciences (Polska Akademia Nauk), which has not been a signatory to joint national science academy statements issued a declaration endorsing the IPCC conclusions, and stating:
it is the duty of Polish science and the national government to, in a thoughtful, organized and active manner, become involved in realisation of these ideas.
Problems of global warming, climate change, and their various negative impacts on human life and on the functioning of entire societies are one of the most dramatic challenges of modern times.
PAS General Assembly calls on the national scientific communities and the national government to actively support Polish participation in this important endeavor.[59]
Scientific consensus on climate change - Wikipedia.
Additional national science academy and society statements
Additional national science academy and society statements
- American Association for the Advancement of Science as the world's largest general scientific society, adopted an official statement on climate change in 2006:
The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society....The pace of change and the evidence of harm have increased markedly over the last five years. The time to control greenhouse gas emissions is now.[60]
- Federation of Australian Scientific and Technological Societies in 2008 published FASTS Statement on Climate Change[61] which states:
Global climate change is real and measurable...To reduce the global net economic, environmental and social losses in the face of these impacts, the policy objective must remain squarely focused on returning greenhouse gas concentrations to near pre-industrial levels through the reduction of emissions. The spatial and temporal fingerprint of warming can be traced to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, which are a direct result of burning fossil fuels, broad-scale deforestation and other human activity.
- United States National Research Council through its Committee on the Science of Climate Change in 2001, published Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions.[62] This report explicitly endorses the IPCC view of attribution of recent climate change as representing the view of the scientific community:
The changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to human activities, but we cannot rule out that some significant part of these changes is also a reflection of natural variability. Human-induced warming and associated sea level rises are expected to continue through the 21st century... The IPCC's conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issue.[62]
- Royal Society of New Zealand having signed onto the first joint science academy statement in 2001, released a separate statement in 2008 in order to clear up "the controversy over climate change and its causes, and possible confusion among the public":
The globe is warming because of increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Measurements show that greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere are well above levels seen for many thousands of years. Further global climate changes are predicted, with impacts expected to become more costly as time progresses. Reducing future impacts of climate change will require substantial reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.[63]
- The Royal Society of the United Kingdom has not changed its concurring stance reflected in its participation in joint national science academies' statements on anthropogenic global warming. According to the Telegraph, "The most prestigious group of scientists in the country was forced to act after fellows complained that doubts over man made global warming were not being communicated to the public".[64] In May 2010, it announced that it "is presently drafting a new public facing document on climate change, to provide an updated status report on the science in an easily accessible form, also addressing the levels of certainty of key components."[65] The society says that it is three years since the last such document was published and that, after an extensive process of debate and review,[66][67] the new document was printed in September 2010. It summarises the current scientific evidence and highlights the areas where the science is well established, where there is still some debate, and where substantial uncertainties remain. The society has stated that "this is not the same as saying that the climate science itself is in error – no Fellows have expressed such a view to the RS".[65] The introduction includes this statement:
There is strong evidence that the warming of the Earth over the last half-century has been caused largely by human activity, such as the burning of fossil fuels and changes in land use, including agriculture and deforestation.
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BSM1
What? Me worry?
Speechless?
BSM1
What? Me worry?
You've yet to name a single scientist that had the courage to sign any document declaring "global warming/climate change" as anything more than speculation based on computer models. If you'll notice my post, you'll see just the opposite in comparison.
Done that in volumes. No coherent response from the peanut gallery
BSM1
What? Me worry?
Again, I think you're ducking the question. Please re-read.