Global warming 2020

[shunyadragon]

Carbon dioxide levels just hit a scary new high

Carbon dioxide levels just hit a scary new high

By Mike Wehner @MikeWehner
June 6th, 2020 at 12:55 PM

• Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels reached a new record high based on a new report from scientists studying the trends.
• As a greenhouse gas, CO2 traps heat, gradually warming the Earth and prompting a number of serious changes.
• Warming ocean waters, dying reefs, stronger storms, and other climate disasters have been linked to climate change.

In the midst of a worldwide health crisis, it can be easy to forget that humanity faces existential threats from multiple angles. The coronavirus pandemic will pass — either when we take measures to dramatically mitigate its spread or a vaccine or other treatment is developed — but when it does, our planet will still be in peril. The worst part is, it’s largely our fault.

As AP reports, scientists revealed on Thursday that the highest-ever atmospheric carbon dioxide reading was recently taken in April. The measurement showed a concentration of as much as 17% in the atmosphere, and since human activity (the burning of fossil fuels) is the primary source for this carbon dioxide, it’s clear that we’re not doing nearly enough to prevent an eventual catastrophe.

Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas. When greenhouses gasses build up in the atmosphere they trap heat, gradually warming the planet. It doesn’t happen all at once, and sometimes there are dips in the amount of greenhouse gas detected in the atmosphere, but the big picture reveals that the levels are sharply trending upward over time.

This has a number of effects on the planet. It causes rising ocean temperatures that kill off vital reef systems that themselves protect coastal communities from being inundated by storm surges and devastating waves. It affects the weather, sparking bigger and more powerful storms, and we have plenty of evidence to show that the hotter the planet gets, the more damage hurricanes and other large storms deal.

Droughts facilitate wildfires that topple entire communities and lives along with them. And of course, there’s the little matter of the food chain, which can be completely toppled as certain species are pushed to extinction by intolerable climate conditions in the sea and on land.

Put simply, we’re really messing this up in a big way.

“It illustrates how difficult it is — what a huge job it is — to bring emissions down,” NOAA senior scientist Pieter Tans said in a statement. “We are really committing the Earth to an enormous amount of warming for a very large time.”

As AP reports, scientists revealed on Thursday that the highest-ever atmospheric carbon dioxide reading was recently taken in April. The measurement showed a concentration of as much as 17% in the atmosphere, and since human activity (the burning of fossil fuels) is the primary source for this carbon dioxide, it’s clear that we’re not doing nearly enough to prevent an eventual catastrophe.

Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas. When greenhouses gasses build up in the atmosphere they trap heat, gradually warming the planet. It doesn’t happen all at once, and sometimes there are dips in the amount of greenhouse gas detected in the atmosphere, but the big picture reveals that the levels are sharply trending upward over time.

This has a number of effects on the planet. It causes rising ocean temperatures that kill off vital reef systems that themselves protect coastal communities from being inundated by storm surges and devastating waves. It affects the weather, sparking bigger and more powerful storms, and we have plenty of evidence to show that the hotter the planet gets, the more damage hurricanes and other large storms deal.

Droughts facilitate wildfires that topple entire communities and lives along with them. And of course, there’s the little matter of the food chain, which can be completely toppled as certain species are pushed to extinction by intolerable climate conditions in the sea and on land.

Put simply, we’re really messing this up in a big way.

“It illustrates how difficult it is — what a huge job it is — to bring emissions down,” NOAA senior scientist Pieter Tans said in a statement. “We are really committing the Earth to an enormous amount of warming for a very large time.”

 

[Bear Wild]

Carbon dioxide levels just hit a scary new high

Carbon dioxide levels just hit a scary new high

By Mike Wehner @MikeWehner
June 6th, 2020 at 12:55 PM

• Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels reached a new record high based on a new report from scientists studying the trends.
• As a greenhouse gas, CO2 traps heat, gradually warming the Earth and prompting a number of serious changes.
• Warming ocean waters, dying reefs, stronger storms, and other climate disasters have been linked to climate change.

In the midst of a worldwide health crisis, it can be easy to forget that humanity faces existential threats from multiple angles. The coronavirus pandemic will pass — either when we take measures to dramatically mitigate its spread or a vaccine or other treatment is developed — but when it does, our planet will still be in peril. The worst part is, it’s largely our fault.

As AP reports, scientists revealed on Thursday that the highest-ever atmospheric carbon dioxide reading was recently taken in April. The measurement showed a concentration of as much as 17% in the atmosphere, and since human activity (the burning of fossil fuels) is the primary source for this carbon dioxide, it’s clear that we’re not doing nearly enough to prevent an eventual catastrophe.

Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas. When greenhouses gasses build up in the atmosphere they trap heat, gradually warming the planet. It doesn’t happen all at once, and sometimes there are dips in the amount of greenhouse gas detected in the atmosphere, but the big picture reveals that the levels are sharply trending upward over time.

This has a number of effects on the planet. It causes rising ocean temperatures that kill off vital reef systems that themselves protect coastal communities from being inundated by storm surges and devastating waves. It affects the weather, sparking bigger and more powerful storms, and we have plenty of evidence to show that the hotter the planet gets, the more damage hurricanes and other large storms deal.

Droughts facilitate wildfires that topple entire communities and lives along with them. And of course, there’s the little matter of the food chain, which can be completely toppled as certain species are pushed to extinction by intolerable climate conditions in the sea and on land.

Put simply, we’re really messing this up in a big way.

“It illustrates how difficult it is — what a huge job it is — to bring emissions down,” NOAA senior scientist Pieter Tans said in a statement. “We are really committing the Earth to an enormous amount of warming for a very large time.”

As AP reports, scientists revealed on Thursday that the highest-ever atmospheric carbon dioxide reading was recently taken in April. The measurement showed a concentration of as much as 17% in the atmosphere, and since human activity (the burning of fossil fuels) is the primary source for this carbon dioxide, it’s clear that we’re not doing nearly enough to prevent an eventual catastrophe.

Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas. When greenhouses gasses build up in the atmosphere they trap heat, gradually warming the planet. It doesn’t happen all at once, and sometimes there are dips in the amount of greenhouse gas detected in the atmosphere, but the big picture reveals that the levels are sharply trending upward over time.

This has a number of effects on the planet. It causes rising ocean temperatures that kill off vital reef systems that themselves protect coastal communities from being inundated by storm surges and devastating waves. It affects the weather, sparking bigger and more powerful storms, and we have plenty of evidence to show that the hotter the planet gets, the more damage hurricanes and other large storms deal.

Droughts facilitate wildfires that topple entire communities and lives along with them. And of course, there’s the little matter of the food chain, which can be completely toppled as certain species are pushed to extinction by intolerable climate conditions in the sea and on land.

Put simply, we’re really messing this up in a big way.

“It illustrates how difficult it is — what a huge job it is — to bring emissions down,” NOAA senior scientist Pieter Tans said in a statement. “We are really committing the Earth to an enormous amount of warming for a very large time.”

Here in Texas we are about to hit the 100's! In June! Global warming has taken third stage to racial injustice and the pandemic yet of all of the real risks to human existence it is the global warming that will ultimately be the greatest threat to human life and it knows no race. The day crop failures occur secondary to global warming a cascade of events will occur that will be devastating. Thanks for reminding us of the greatest risk to humanity.

 

[shunyadragon]

How hot can it get!
Last month was the hottest May on record - CNN
Last month was the hottest May on record, as the world creeps closer to a dangerous threshold
By Rob Picheta, CNN

(CNN)Last month was the hottest May on record worldwide, a European climate agency has reported, with temperatures in Siberia rising 10 degrees Celsius (18 degrees Fahrenheit) above their normal levels.

Globally, May was 0.63 degrees Celsius warmer than the average May between 1981 and 2010, making it the warmest May in this data record, the Copernicus Climate Change Service said.

And when compared with pre-industrial figures, their recordings indicate that the world is creeping dangerously close to the temperature threshold that international organizations warn would be so devastating to the planet if exceeded.

The Copernicus figures correlate to a 1.26 degree Celsius rise on pre-industrial levels for May. Global temperatures must be kept from rising above 1.5 degrees Celsius on those levels to avoid major impacts on the climate, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded.




Billions of people could live in areas too hot for humans by 2070, study says

May's increase follows a clear trend recorded by Copernicus over the past year. In the last 12-month period up to May, global temperatures were 0.7 degrees Celsius warmer than average -- matching the previous year-long high between October 2015 and September 2016.

Europe generally was slightly colder than average, but with sharp geographical differences, the report said.
The most striking spike was in Siberia, the typically freezing region that spans much of Russia, which was up 10 degrees Celsius on average levels.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has this week ordered a state of emergency in the Siberian city of Norilsk, after 20,000 tons of fuel spilled into a nearby river from a power station in an incident officials are blaming on melting permafrost in the region.

An environmental group has described the damage as "catastrophic," and the concentration of contaminants in nearby waters has already exceeded permissible levels tens of thousands of times over, according to Russian environmental agency Rosprirodnadzor.

Two thirds of Russia sits on permafrost, which is degrading rapidly, puncturing places with giant sinkholes.
It follows a remarkably warm winter in Russia, which would usually be blanketed in snow at the start of a year.
Instead, it saw the hottest winter in the 140-year history of meteorological observations, beating the previous temperature record from the winter of 2015-2016 by 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit), the country's state-run Hydrometeorological Center of Russia reported in March.

 

[shunyadragon]

Here in Texas we are about to hit the 100's! In June! Global warming has taken third stage to racial injustice and the pandemic yet of all of the real risks to human existence it is the global warming that will ultimately be the greatest threat to human life and it knows no race. The day crop failures occur secondary to global warming a cascade of events will occur that will be devastating. Thanks for reminding us of the greatest risk to humanity.

Some areas of the world are no longer livable, because of global warming.

 

[sun rise]

The 'ride' is going to get a lot 'bumpier' from here.

 

[BSM1]

Carbon dioxide levels just hit a scary new high

Carbon dioxide levels just hit a scary new high

By Mike Wehner @MikeWehner
June 6th, 2020 at 12:55 PM

• Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels reached a new record high based on a new report from scientists studying the trends.
• As a greenhouse gas, CO2 traps heat, gradually warming the Earth and prompting a number of serious changes.
• Warming ocean waters, dying reefs, stronger storms, and other climate disasters have been linked to climate change.

In the midst of a worldwide health crisis, it can be easy to forget that humanity faces existential threats from multiple angles. The coronavirus pandemic will pass — either when we take measures to dramatically mitigate its spread or a vaccine or other treatment is developed — but when it does, our planet will still be in peril. The worst part is, it’s largely our fault.

As AP reports, scientists revealed on Thursday that the highest-ever atmospheric carbon dioxide reading was recently taken in April. The measurement showed a concentration of as much as 17% in the atmosphere, and since human activity (the burning of fossil fuels) is the primary source for this carbon dioxide, it’s clear that we’re not doing nearly enough to prevent an eventual catastrophe.

Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas. When greenhouses gasses build up in the atmosphere they trap heat, gradually warming the planet. It doesn’t happen all at once, and sometimes there are dips in the amount of greenhouse gas detected in the atmosphere, but the big picture reveals that the levels are sharply trending upward over time.

This has a number of effects on the planet. It causes rising ocean temperatures that kill off vital reef systems that themselves protect coastal communities from being inundated by storm surges and devastating waves. It affects the weather, sparking bigger and more powerful storms, and we have plenty of evidence to show that the hotter the planet gets, the more damage hurricanes and other large storms deal.

Droughts facilitate wildfires that topple entire communities and lives along with them. And of course, there’s the little matter of the food chain, which can be completely toppled as certain species are pushed to extinction by intolerable climate conditions in the sea and on land.

Put simply, we’re really messing this up in a big way.

“It illustrates how difficult it is — what a huge job it is — to bring emissions down,” NOAA senior scientist Pieter Tans said in a statement. “We are really committing the Earth to an enormous amount of warming for a very large time.”

As AP reports, scientists revealed on Thursday that the highest-ever atmospheric carbon dioxide reading was recently taken in April. The measurement showed a concentration of as much as 17% in the atmosphere, and since human activity (the burning of fossil fuels) is the primary source for this carbon dioxide, it’s clear that we’re not doing nearly enough to prevent an eventual catastrophe.

Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas. When greenhouses gasses build up in the atmosphere they trap heat, gradually warming the planet. It doesn’t happen all at once, and sometimes there are dips in the amount of greenhouse gas detected in the atmosphere, but the big picture reveals that the levels are sharply trending upward over time.

This has a number of effects on the planet. It causes rising ocean temperatures that kill off vital reef systems that themselves protect coastal communities from being inundated by storm surges and devastating waves. It affects the weather, sparking bigger and more powerful storms, and we have plenty of evidence to show that the hotter the planet gets, the more damage hurricanes and other large storms deal.

Droughts facilitate wildfires that topple entire communities and lives along with them. And of course, there’s the little matter of the food chain, which can be completely toppled as certain species are pushed to extinction by intolerable climate conditions in the sea and on land.

Put simply, we’re really messing this up in a big way.

“It illustrates how difficult it is — what a huge job it is — to bring emissions down,” NOAA senior scientist Pieter Tans said in a statement. “We are really committing the Earth to an enormous amount of warming for a very large time.”

Any info on how much the atmosphere has warmed in the last few years?

 

[Bear Wild]

Some areas of the world are no longer livable, because of global warming.

So true. I can only how we can unite as is happening her in the us over race issues to stop the ultimate threat to humanity. Thanks for not forgetting.

 

[Heyo]

As AP reports, scientists revealed on Thursday that the highest-ever atmospheric carbon dioxide reading was recently taken in April. The measurement showed a concentration of as much as 17% in the atmosphere, and since human activity (the burning of fossil fuels) is the primary source for this carbon dioxide, it’s clear that we’re not doing nearly enough to prevent an eventual catastrophe.

Where did they measure 17%, in the caldera of a volcano? 0.17% is already deadly to aerobic life. Something, somewhere went wrong with that number.

 

[Bear Wild]

Any info on how much the atmosphere has warmed in the last few years?

Yes experience. Getting temperatures in central Texas over 100 used to be unusual now becoming the standard. Freezing in the ground which would occur every year in central Texas is no longer experienced. Average temperatures are on average going up where I live. What evidence are you lacking where you live?

 

[Bear Wild]

Where did they measure 17%, in the caldera of a volcano? 0.17% is already deadly to aerobic life. Something, somewhere went wrong with that number.

In reading the article they are referring to 17% of human contribution which in April during the pandemic was lower but the effect of human contribution is still increasing the climate change problem. There is still an increase in the total percentage of CO2 which still does not include the methane contribution of thawing of the permafrost. CO2 makes up just 0.04% of the atmosphere although it may be up to 0.041%. This seemingly small percentage still has a major effect on the environment.

 

[Heyo]

In reading the article they are referring to 17% of human contribution which in April during the pandemic was lower but the effect of human contribution is still increasing the climate change problem. There is still an increase in the total percentage of CO2 which still does not include the methane contribution of thawing of the permafrost. CO2 makes up just 0.04% of the atmosphere although it may be up to 0.041%. This seemingly small percentage still has a major effect on the environment.

I read the article and the wording is that there is 17% of CO2 in the atmosphere. They may have meant to say that production of carbon dioxide is 17% man made but I don't know how to extract that from the text.

 

[Twilight Hue]

Carbon dioxide levels just hit a scary new high

Carbon dioxide levels just hit a scary new high

By Mike Wehner @MikeWehner
June 6th, 2020 at 12:55 PM

• Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels reached a new record high based on a new report from scientists studying the trends.
• As a greenhouse gas, CO2 traps heat, gradually warming the Earth and prompting a number of serious changes.
• Warming ocean waters, dying reefs, stronger storms, and other climate disasters have been linked to climate change.

In the midst of a worldwide health crisis, it can be easy to forget that humanity faces existential threats from multiple angles. The coronavirus pandemic will pass — either when we take measures to dramatically mitigate its spread or a vaccine or other treatment is developed — but when it does, our planet will still be in peril. The worst part is, it’s largely our fault.

As AP reports, scientists revealed on Thursday that the highest-ever atmospheric carbon dioxide reading was recently taken in April. The measurement showed a concentration of as much as 17% in the atmosphere, and since human activity (the burning of fossil fuels) is the primary source for this carbon dioxide, it’s clear that we’re not doing nearly enough to prevent an eventual catastrophe.

Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas. When greenhouses gasses build up in the atmosphere they trap heat, gradually warming the planet. It doesn’t happen all at once, and sometimes there are dips in the amount of greenhouse gas detected in the atmosphere, but the big picture reveals that the levels are sharply trending upward over time.

This has a number of effects on the planet. It causes rising ocean temperatures that kill off vital reef systems that themselves protect coastal communities from being inundated by storm surges and devastating waves. It affects the weather, sparking bigger and more powerful storms, and we have plenty of evidence to show that the hotter the planet gets, the more damage hurricanes and other large storms deal.

Droughts facilitate wildfires that topple entire communities and lives along with them. And of course, there’s the little matter of the food chain, which can be completely toppled as certain species are pushed to extinction by intolerable climate conditions in the sea and on land.

Put simply, we’re really messing this up in a big way.

“It illustrates how difficult it is — what a huge job it is — to bring emissions down,” NOAA senior scientist Pieter Tans said in a statement. “We are really committing the Earth to an enormous amount of warming for a very large time.”

As AP reports, scientists revealed on Thursday that the highest-ever atmospheric carbon dioxide reading was recently taken in April. The measurement showed a concentration of as much as 17% in the atmosphere, and since human activity (the burning of fossil fuels) is the primary source for this carbon dioxide, it’s clear that we’re not doing nearly enough to prevent an eventual catastrophe.

Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas. When greenhouses gasses build up in the atmosphere they trap heat, gradually warming the planet. It doesn’t happen all at once, and sometimes there are dips in the amount of greenhouse gas detected in the atmosphere, but the big picture reveals that the levels are sharply trending upward over time.

This has a number of effects on the planet. It causes rising ocean temperatures that kill off vital reef systems that themselves protect coastal communities from being inundated by storm surges and devastating waves. It affects the weather, sparking bigger and more powerful storms, and we have plenty of evidence to show that the hotter the planet gets, the more damage hurricanes and other large storms deal.

Droughts facilitate wildfires that topple entire communities and lives along with them. And of course, there’s the little matter of the food chain, which can be completely toppled as certain species are pushed to extinction by intolerable climate conditions in the sea and on land.

Put simply, we’re really messing this up in a big way.

“It illustrates how difficult it is — what a huge job it is — to bring emissions down,” NOAA senior scientist Pieter Tans said in a statement. “We are really committing the Earth to an enormous amount of warming for a very large time.”

In New York we set a new record for temperatures almost in the upper 90s not too long ago. No doubt I think we're in for a hot summer.

 

[BSM1]

Yes experience. Getting temperatures in central Texas over 100 used to be unusual now becoming the standard. Freezing in the ground which would occur every year in central Texas is no longer experienced. Average temperatures are on average going up where I live. What evidence are you lacking where you live?

Uhhh...experience is not science, and that wasn't my question. My question was, if the CO2 is causing the heat of the sun to be trapped in the atmosphere, the layers of the atmosphere that retain this heat must be heating up. So whats the temperature of atmospheric layers now that this heat has been trapped for so many years? How much experience have you had in, say, the troposphere?

 

[BSM1]

Some areas of the world are no longer livable, because of global warming.

Hmmm...which areas, in particular?

 

[shunyadragon]

Hmmm...which areas, in particular?

I know that people are abandoning some communities on the Southern edge of the Sahara, and personally saw this around the edge of the Gobi Desert in China. A combination of increased heat and advancing drought in recent history. Some areas around the deserts in the Western USA are experience trends of rising temperatures that records. The increased drought and temperature rise in Australia has increased the wild fires to the point that these areas are becoming unlivable due to increasing fires. At present this is mostly around the margins of deserts.

This article describes what is happening around these regions on a larger scale as the 'wet bulb' temperatures rise.

Global warming could mean parts of the planet become too hot for humans

Global warming could mean parts of the planet become too hot for humans

• Global warming is on track to reach a 'wetbulb' level of 35°C, where humans can no longer regulate safe body temperature through sweating.
• With continued exposure above this threshold, people can die by overheating.
• Reducing carbon emissions to net-zero can avoid areas of the planet being carried further into uncharted heat territory.

The explosive growth and success of human society over the past 10,000 years has been underpinned by a distinct range of climate conditions. But the range of weather humans can encounter on Earth – the “climate envelope” – is shifting as the planet warms, and conditions entirely new to civilisation could emerge in the coming decades. Even with modern technology, this should not be taken lightly.

Being able to regulate our temperature has played a key role in enabling humans to dominate the planet. Walking on two legs, without fur, and with a sweat-based cooling system, we’re well designed to beat the heat. But hot weather already limits our ability to work and stay healthy. In fact, our physiology places bounds on the level of heat and humidity we can cope with.

The normal temperature you see reported on weather forecasts is called the “drybulb” temperature. Once that rises above about 35°C, the body must rely on evaporating water (mainly through sweating) to dissipate heat. The “wetbulb” temperature is a measure that includes the chilling effect from evaporation on a thermometer, so it is normally much lower than the drybulb temperature. It indicates how efficiently our sweat-based cooling system can work.

Have you read?

• Global warming is causing 'irreversible' mass melting in Antarctica
• This is why limiting global warming to 1.5°C is crucial

Once the wetbulb temperature crosses about 35°C, the air is so hot and humid that not even sweating can lower your body temperature to a safe level. With continued exposure above this threshold, death by overheating can follow.


Water is sprayed to cool down attendees of the Hajj pilgrimage, in Saudi Arabia.
Image: EPA-EFE/MAST IRHAM
A 35°C limit may sound modest, but it isn’t. When the UK sweltered with a record drybulb temperature of 38.7°C in July 2019, the wetbulb temperature in Cambridge was no more than 24°C. Even in Karachi’s killer heatwave of 2015, the wetbulb temperature stayed below 30°C. In fact, outside a steam room, few people have encountered anything close to 35°C. It has mostly been beyond Earth’s climate envelope as human society has developed.

But our recent research shows that the 35°C limit is drawing closer, leaving an ever-shrinking safety margin for the hottest and most humid places on Earth.

Heat beyond human tolerance

Modelling studies had already indicated that wetbulb temperatures could regularly cross 35°C if the world sails past the 2°C warming limit set out in the Paris climate agreement in 2015, with The Persian Gulf, South Asia and North China Plain on the frontline of deadly humid heat.

Our analysis of wetbulb temperatures from 1979-2017 did not disagree with these warnings about what may be to come. But whereas past studies had looked at relatively large regions (on the scale of major metropolitan areas), we also examined thousands of weather station records worldwide and saw that, at this more local scale, many sites were closing in much more rapidly on the 35°C limit. The frequency of punishing wetbulb temperatures (above 31°C, for example) has more than doubled worldwide since 1979, and in some of the hottest and most humid places on Earth, like the coastal United Arab Emirates, wetbulb temperatures have already flickered past 35°C. The climate envelope is pushing into territory where our physiology cannot follow.

The consequences of crossing 35°C, however brief, have perhaps been mainly symbolic so far, as residents of the hottest places are used to riding out extreme heat by sheltering in air-conditioned spaces. But relying on artificial cooling to cope with the growing heat would supercharge energy demand and leave many people dangerously exposed to power failures. It would also abandon the most vulnerable members of society and doesn’t help those who have to venture outside.


All-time maximum humid heat records at weather stations around the world, 1979-2017.
Image: The Conversation/Colin Raymond
The only way to avoid being carried further and more frequently into uncharted heat territory is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero. The economic slowdown during the coronavirus pandemic is expected to slash emissions by 4-7% in 2020, bringing them close to where global emissions were in 2010. But concentrations of greenhouse gases are still rising rapidly in the atmosphere. We must also adapt where possible, by encouraging simple behavioural changes (like avoiding outdoor daytime activity) and by ramping up emergency response plans when heat extremes are imminent. Such steps will help to buy time against the inexorable forward march of the Earth’s climate envelope.

We hope that our research illuminates some of the challenges that may await us as global temperatures rise. The emergence of unprecedented heat and humidity – beyond what our physiology can tolerate – is just a portion of what could be in store. An even warmer and wetter world risks generating climate extremes beyond any human experience, including the potential for a whole host of “unknown unknowns”.

We hope that the sense of vulnerability to surprises left by COVID-19 invigorates global commitments to reaching carbon neutrality – recognising the value in preserving conditions that are somewhat familiar, rather than risking what may be waiting in a very novel climate ahead.

 

[BSM1]

I know that people are abandoning some communities on the Southern edge of the Sahara, and personally saw this around the edge of the Gobi Desert in China. A combination of increased heat and advancing drought in recent history. Some areas around the deserts in the Western USA are experience trends of rising temperatures that records. The increased drought and temperature rise in Australia has increased the wild fires to the point that these areas are becoming unlivable due to increasing fires. At present this is mostly around the margins of deserts.

This article describes what is happening around these regions on a larger scale as the 'wet bulb' temperatures rise.

Global warming could mean parts of the planet become too hot for humans

Global warming could mean parts of the planet become too hot for humans

• Global warming is on track to reach a 'wetbulb' level of 35°C, where humans can no longer regulate safe body temperature through sweating.
• With continued exposure above this threshold, people can die by overheating.
• Reducing carbon emissions to net-zero can avoid areas of the planet being carried further into uncharted heat territory.

The explosive growth and success of human society over the past 10,000 years has been underpinned by a distinct range of climate conditions. But the range of weather humans can encounter on Earth – the “climate envelope” – is shifting as the planet warms, and conditions entirely new to civilisation could emerge in the coming decades. Even with modern technology, this should not be taken lightly.

Being able to regulate our temperature has played a key role in enabling humans to dominate the planet. Walking on two legs, without fur, and with a sweat-based cooling system, we’re well designed to beat the heat. But hot weather already limits our ability to work and stay healthy. In fact, our physiology places bounds on the level of heat and humidity we can cope with.

The normal temperature you see reported on weather forecasts is called the “drybulb” temperature. Once that rises above about 35°C, the body must rely on evaporating water (mainly through sweating) to dissipate heat. The “wetbulb” temperature is a measure that includes the chilling effect from evaporation on a thermometer, so it is normally much lower than the drybulb temperature. It indicates how efficiently our sweat-based cooling system can work.

Have you read?

• Global warming is causing 'irreversible' mass melting in Antarctica
• This is why limiting global warming to 1.5°C is crucial

Once the wetbulb temperature crosses about 35°C, the air is so hot and humid that not even sweating can lower your body temperature to a safe level. With continued exposure above this threshold, death by overheating can follow.


Water is sprayed to cool down attendees of the Hajj pilgrimage, in Saudi Arabia.
Image: EPA-EFE/MAST IRHAM
A 35°C limit may sound modest, but it isn’t. When the UK sweltered with a record drybulb temperature of 38.7°C in July 2019, the wetbulb temperature in Cambridge was no more than 24°C. Even in Karachi’s killer heatwave of 2015, the wetbulb temperature stayed below 30°C. In fact, outside a steam room, few people have encountered anything close to 35°C. It has mostly been beyond Earth’s climate envelope as human society has developed.

But our recent research shows that the 35°C limit is drawing closer, leaving an ever-shrinking safety margin for the hottest and most humid places on Earth.

Heat beyond human tolerance

Modelling studies had already indicated that wetbulb temperatures could regularly cross 35°C if the world sails past the 2°C warming limit set out in the Paris climate agreement in 2015, with The Persian Gulf, South Asia and North China Plain on the frontline of deadly humid heat.

Our analysis of wetbulb temperatures from 1979-2017 did not disagree with these warnings about what may be to come. But whereas past studies had looked at relatively large regions (on the scale of major metropolitan areas), we also examined thousands of weather station records worldwide and saw that, at this more local scale, many sites were closing in much more rapidly on the 35°C limit. The frequency of punishing wetbulb temperatures (above 31°C, for example) has more than doubled worldwide since 1979, and in some of the hottest and most humid places on Earth, like the coastal United Arab Emirates, wetbulb temperatures have already flickered past 35°C. The climate envelope is pushing into territory where our physiology cannot follow.

The consequences of crossing 35°C, however brief, have perhaps been mainly symbolic so far, as residents of the hottest places are used to riding out extreme heat by sheltering in air-conditioned spaces. But relying on artificial cooling to cope with the growing heat would supercharge energy demand and leave many people dangerously exposed to power failures. It would also abandon the most vulnerable members of society and doesn’t help those who have to venture outside.


All-time maximum humid heat records at weather stations around the world, 1979-2017.
Image: The Conversation/Colin Raymond
The only way to avoid being carried further and more frequently into uncharted heat territory is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero. The economic slowdown during the coronavirus pandemic is expected to slash emissions by 4-7% in 2020, bringing them close to where global emissions were in 2010. But concentrations of greenhouse gases are still rising rapidly in the atmosphere. We must also adapt where possible, by encouraging simple behavioural changes (like avoiding outdoor daytime activity) and by ramping up emergency response plans when heat extremes are imminent. Such steps will help to buy time against the inexorable forward march of the Earth’s climate envelope.

We hope that our research illuminates some of the challenges that may await us as global temperatures rise. The emergence of unprecedented heat and humidity – beyond what our physiology can tolerate – is just a portion of what could be in store. An even warmer and wetter world risks generating climate extremes beyond any human experience, including the potential for a whole host of “unknown unknowns”.

We hope that the sense of vulnerability to surprises left by COVID-19 invigorates global commitments to reaching carbon neutrality – recognising the value in preserving conditions that are somewhat familiar, rather than risking what may be waiting in a very novel climate ahead.

So a desert is inhabitable....hmmm...

 

[shunyadragon]

So a desert is inhabitable....hmmm...

No a desert does not mean inhabitable, but yes combinations of heat and drought can make regions of desert inhabitable. Actually many deserts are inhabitable, but are used seasonally by nomadic tribes from the oasis they rely on on for water, but even this is diminishing as their water resources are disappearing and the heat is increasing.

 

[BSM1]

No a desert does not mean inhabitable, but yes combinations of heat and drought can make regions of desert inhabitable. Actually many deserts are inhabitable, but are used seasonally by nomadic tribes from the oasis they rely on on for water, but even this is diminishing as their water resources are disappearing and the heat is increasing.

So that's the best example you have? Okay...I'm sold...

 

[Heyo]

So that's the best example you have? Okay...I'm sold...

And then there are those who have the opposite problem: too much water. Islands in the south-west Pacific and low laying regions of Bangladesh and other coastal regions are already having problems with rising sea levels.

 

[shunyadragon]

Where did they measure 17%, in the caldera of a volcano? 0.17% is already deadly to aerobic life. Something, somewhere went wrong with that number.

The 17% is total CO2, but most research is in ppm. Do a google search CO2 history
for graphs of the trends over time.