Global warming 2020

[Shaul]

The economy it self measured by GDP does not produce CO2 emissions. Yes the financial and services economy are much larger than China.

Manufacturing output* in China is the highest in the world combined with the size of the population are the major factors of CO2 emissions. The USA is the highest assembly industry, which contributes less to CO2 output. The manufacture of car parts produces more CO2 than the assembly of cars.

*Mapping Countries Manufacturing Output: China's Superpower vs. the World

China's manufaturing output is 4 trillion dollars, and the USA is 2.3 .trillion dollars. Asia is 52% of world manufacturing output, and North America is 18%, and Europe is 22%

in other words, China gets a pass on pollution because it chooses to based its economy on manufacturing with looser pollution standards. Nice.

 

[Heyo]

in other words, China gets a pass on pollution because it chooses to based its economy on manufacturing with looser pollution standards. Nice.

Nobody gets "a pass" when it comes to pollution, although you are arguing for the US to get "a pass". Playing the blame game is just an attempt to deflect responsibility. It doesn't help the climate.
What would help would be an international climate agreement. And guess who just left?

 

[shunyadragon]

in other words, China gets a pass on pollution because it chooses to based its economy on manufacturing with looser pollution standards. Nice.

No China, Russia, USA nor any other country gets a pass concerning polution and Global Warming, but also no one is virtuous to 'pass the buck.'.

 

[Shaul]

Nobody gets "a pass" when it comes to pollution, although you are arguing for the US to get "a pass". Playing the blame game is just an attempt to deflect responsibility. It doesn't help the climate.
What would help would be an international climate agreement. And guess who just left?

To the contrary. Those pushing international agreements specifically allow China and others a “pass” in the form of different standards. Experience shows that the U.S. approach of market driven means of reducing emissions reduces a country’s emissions more than the top-down, regulatory approach of international agreements. When the U.S. withdrew from the Paris accord in favor of a market driven approach it out performed the EU who took the regulatory approach. The U.S. met the Paris Accord targets, but the EU did not! Despite those targets being tighter for the U.S. than the EU.

So guess who should be scrapping the demonstrably failed bureaucratic approach? Everyone that really wants to reduce emissions by following the U.S. free market approach.

Yes, playing the blame game doesn’t help. It is time to stop the blame America bias and focus on genuine environmental improvement.

 

[Shaul]

No China, Russia, USA nor any other country gets a pass concerning polution and Global Warming, but also no one is virtuous to 'pass the buck.'.

Read the proposed agreements. They contained different standards for China and developing countries. That’s just another form of giving them a pass.

 

[shunyadragon]

in other words, China gets a pass on pollution because it chooses to based its economy on manufacturing with looser pollution standards. Nice.

The problem is your original assertions, which were biased and false. It is simple and remains a fact as perpopulation and manufaturing output the USA is a greater poluter than China.

To boot under tRump the USA is backing out of the climate agreements.

 

[Heyo]

Read the proposed agreements. They contained different standards for China and developing countries. That’s just another form of giving them a pass.

They are taking history into account. Developed countries have polluted the air for about 2 centuries to reach the standard of living they have now. Developing nations are justifiably upset that they should be held back from developing the same way the developed countries did before.

 

[shunyadragon]

in other words, China gets a pass on pollution because it chooses to based its economy on manufacturing with looser pollution standards. Nice.

There is an interesting graph:
China: What share of global CO2 emissions are emitted by the country?

on this site: https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/

That shows the world share of CO2 emissions between the USA and China and other coutries where emissions went up in China and down in th eUSA as manufaturing shifted over the years from the USA to China. This has resulted in what I described earlier when the USA became the importer and China became the exported of manufatured goods. Our indistry became an assembling industry, ie cars and trucks, which polutes less.

 

[Shaul]

The problem is your original assertions, which were biased and false. It is simple and remains a fact as perpopulation and manufaturing output the USA is a greater poluter than China.

To boot under tRump the USA is backing out of the climate agreements.

There is no problem whatsoever in considering production along with emissions. Indeed to not consider them together is the distortion. The fact is that the U.S. produces more per unit of emissions than China.

Not accepting an agreement that is poorly constructed is no vice, it is a virtue.

 

[Shaul]

There is an interesting graph:
China: What share of global CO2 emissions are emitted by the country?

on this site: https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/

That shows the world share of CO2 emissions between the USA and China and other coutries where emissions went up in China and down in th eUSA as manufaturing shifted over the years from the USA to China. This has resulted in what I described earlier when the USA became the importer and China became the exported of manufatured goods. Our indistry became an assembling industry, ie cars and trucks, which polutes less.

Which totally ignores two things. One is that the emissions in the U.S. went down while manufacturing increased in the U.S. the other is that you only focused on the bilateral exports. The U.S. exports about about $160 billion each month world wide while China exports about $200 billion each month world wide. They are comparable. The U.S. manufactures a great deal. Sorry to shatter your narrative. We just manufacture higher priced, less emission producing things than China.

 

[Heyo]

The U.S. manufactures a great deal.

The US assembles a great deal with parts made in China.

Tariffs aren't very popular internationally but in the US they seem to be accepted lately. What do you personally think about an international CO2 tariff and how do you think the US administration would think about it?
The US wouldn't have to sign an agreement when the majority of countries applied the tariffs. It's basically cap and trade with the CO2 tariff coupled to the product. Put your money where your mouth is.

 

[Ponder This]

I know that people are abandoning some communities on the Southern edge of the Sahara, and personally saw this around the edge of the Gobi Desert in China. A combination of increased heat and advancing drought in recent history. Some areas around the deserts in the Western USA are experience trends of rising temperatures that records. The increased drought and temperature rise in Australia has increased the wild fires to the point that these areas are becoming unlivable due to increasing fires. At present this is mostly around the margins of deserts.

I think a global rise in wet bulb temperature is concerning!
Do you have any links that document the shift in wet bulb temperatures and changes in overall rainfall?

Here's an article talking about the increase in wet bulb temperatures...
The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance
The article does, unfortunately, makes predictions about future wet bulb temperatures rather than confining itself to an analysis of the existing history of wet bulb temperatures, but it presents enough substance to raise concern.

In regards to farming areas becoming desert, we know that farming techniques can lead directly to desertification. So a confirmation of a change in wet bulb temperature and total amounts of rainfall are necessary observations and observations of farmland becoming desert are insufficient. We also need to consider the natural cycles of desert expansion because we know that deserts do not remain static in size over time. No doubt you've accounted for those things in your observations because it's your field of study.

We know the Sahara Desert has expanded 10% since 1920. We know farming techniques did play a role in that expansion, but there are also significant other factors.

Here's an article talking about the expansion of the Sahara
The Sahara Desert Is Growing. Here's What That Means
The article says 2/3 of the expansion of the Sahara can be accounted for solely from the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which leaves 1/3 to be explained by other means (likely climate change?). But the Pacific Decadal Oscillation should also play a part as well...

There's a lot to consider and it would be nice to see a comprehensive analysis of all the influences on the expansion of the Gobi Desert.

 

[shunyadragon]

I think a global rise in wet bulb temperature is concerning!
Do you have any links that document the shift in wet bulb temperatures and changes in overall rainfall?

It is not the overall rainfall that is the problem. It is the distribution of rainfall.

Here's an article talking about the increase in wet bulb temperatures...
The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance
The article does, unfortunately, makes predictions about future wet bulb temperatures rather than confining itself to an analysis of the existing history of wet bulb temperatures, but it presents enough substance to raise concern.

In regards to farming areas becoming desert, we know that farming techniques can lead directly to desertification. So a confirmation of a change in wet bulb temperature and total amounts of rainfall are necessary observations and observations of farmland becoming desert are insufficient. We also need to consider the natural cycles of desert expansion because we know that deserts do not remain static in size over time. No doubt you've accounted for those things in your observations because it's your field of study.

Yes farming practices can 'contributes' to desertification, but it does not cause desertification, and only causes a temporal change until the land goes fallow .

When I was a student at Oklahoma State in Agriculture they had a number of tracks of restored Native Prairie tracks they have monitored over the past 50 years and more. The trend on these tracks is shift of mesic tall grass prairie to arid short grass Prairie.

We know the Sahara Desert has expanded 10% since 1920. We know farming techniques did play a role in that expansion, but there are also significant other factors.

Here's an article talking about the expansion of the Sahara
The Sahara Desert Is Growing. Here's What That Means
The article says 2/3 of the expansion of the Sahara can be accounted for solely from the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which leaves 1/3 to be explained by other means (likely climate change?). But the Pacific Decadal Oscillation should also play a part as well...

There's a lot to consider and it would be nice to see a comprehensive analysis of all the influences on the expansion of the Gobi Desert.

It is best to begin with the historical trend since the last Ice Age that the mesic region has been shrinking, and desertification has increased. The issue is the increase in temperatures in the mesic and arid regions has increased the rate of desertification since the Industrial Revolution.. Before the Industrial Revolution there was a natural cyclic cooling trend, which ended and the climate began to change with the rising CO2.

See next post . . .

 

[shunyadragon]

[cite=[URL="https://www.bbvaopenmind.com/en/articles/the-impact-of-global-warming-on-the-distribution-of-rainfall-a-historical-perspective/"]The Impact of Global Warming on the Distribution of Rainfall: A Historical Perspective | OpenMind[/URL]]

The Impact of Global Warming on the Distribution of Rainfall: A Historical Perspective
Wallace S. Broecker
Columbia University , New York, USA

Model simulations of the response of the Earth to the ongoing global warming predict that the Northern Hemisphere will heat up about twice as fast as the Southern Hemisphere. If so, the thermal equator will undergo a northward shift. By analogy to a shift that occurred about 14.500 years ago, this will strengthen monsoon rains in China, increase the discharge of the Nile, make more arid the dry lands in the 35 to 45º N latitude belt and shift Amazonia to the north. Evidence in support of this prediction comes from the small southwards shift of the thermal equator that accompanied the transition from Medieval Warm to the Little Ice Age.

INTRODUCTION
The changes in rainfall to be generated by the ongoing rise in atmospheric CO2 will likely have the greatest consequences for humans. This will be especially true for the Earth’s dry lands where water is already in short supply. Isaac Held, recipient of the 2012 BBVA climate prize, has predicted based on theory and model simulations that the tropics will get an even larger fraction of global rainfall and that this increase will be at the expense of the adjacent dry lands. Although simulations carried out in linked ocean-atmosphere models confirm Held’s prediction, they disagree widely regarding the details. Because of this, a group that I work with has set out to complement these simulations with evidence gleaned from past climate changes. By past, I mean changes that have occurred during the last 30 thousand years, a time period where radiocarbon dating allows us to correlate events occurring at different places on the planet. As shown in Figure 1, this period includes the Last Glacial Maximum (28 to 18 thousand years ago), the period of deglaciation (18 to 10 thousand years ago) and the Holocene interglaciation (last 10 thousand years). As I will show, two sets of millennium-long punctuations are particularly instructive. One is an oscillation centered at 14.5 thousand years ago (14.5 kyrs) and the other is the Medieval Warm–Little Ice Age oscillation in the latest Holocene.

The article goes into more detail.

 

[shunyadragon]

To the contrary. Those pushing international agreements specifically allow China and others a “pass” in the form of different standards. Experience shows that the U.S. approach of market driven means of reducing emissions reduces a country’s emissions more than the top-down, regulatory approach of international agreements. When the U.S. withdrew from the Paris accord in favor of a market driven approach it out performed the EU who took the regulatory approach. The U.S. met the Paris Accord targets, but the EU did not! Despite those targets being tighter for the U.S. than the EU.

So guess who should be scrapping the demonstrably failed bureaucratic approach? Everyone that really wants to reduce emissions by following the U.S. free market approach.

Yes, playing the blame game doesn’t help. It is time to stop the blame America bias and focus on genuine environmental improvement.

Already posted references that this false. No one gets a pass.

 

[shunyadragon]

There is no problem whatsoever in considering production along with emissions. Indeed to not consider them together is the distortion. The fact is that the U.S. produces more per unit of emissions than China.

Not accepting an agreement that is poorly constructed is no vice, it is a virtue.

There are no virtues in the Trump administration.

 

[Ponder This]

[cite=[URL='https://www.bbvaopenmind.com/en/articles/the-impact-of-global-warming-on-the-distribution-of-rainfall-a-historical-perspective/']The Impact of Global Warming on the Distribution of Rainfall: A Historical Perspective | OpenMind[/URL]]

The Impact of Global Warming on the Distribution of Rainfall: A Historical Perspective
Wallace S. Broecker
Columbia University , New York, USA

Model simulations of the response of the Earth to the ongoing global warming predict that the Northern Hemisphere will heat up about twice as fast as the Southern Hemisphere. If so, the thermal equator will undergo a northward shift. By analogy to a shift that occurred about 14.500 years ago, this will strengthen monsoon rains in China, increase the discharge of the Nile, make more arid the dry lands in the 35 to 45º N latitude belt and shift Amazonia to the north. Evidence in support of this prediction comes from the small southwards shift of the thermal equator that accompanied the transition from Medieval Warm to the Little Ice Age.

INTRODUCTION
The changes in rainfall to be generated by the ongoing rise in atmospheric CO2 will likely have the greatest consequences for humans. This will be especially true for the Earth’s dry lands where water is already in short supply. Isaac Held, recipient of the 2012 BBVA climate prize, has predicted based on theory and model simulations that the tropics will get an even larger fraction of global rainfall and that this increase will be at the expense of the adjacent dry lands. Although simulations carried out in linked ocean-atmosphere models confirm Held’s prediction, they disagree widely regarding the details. Because of this, a group that I work with has set out to complement these simulations with evidence gleaned from past climate changes. By past, I mean changes that have occurred during the last 30 thousand years, a time period where radiocarbon dating allows us to correlate events occurring at different places on the planet. As shown in Figure 1, this period includes the Last Glacial Maximum (28 to 18 thousand years ago), the period of deglaciation (18 to 10 thousand years ago) and the Holocene interglaciation (last 10 thousand years). As I will show, two sets of millennium-long punctuations are particularly instructive. One is an oscillation centered at 14.5 thousand years ago (14.5 kyrs) and the other is the Medieval Warm–Little Ice Age oscillation in the latest Holocene.

The article goes into more detail.

It's an okay article, but it would be nice to see less talk about model simulations and more talk about the concrete conclusions of historical climate change.

It would also be nice to see more in the way of local changes in regions around the Sahara and the Gobi.

Thanks for linking the article.

 

[shunyadragon]

It's an okay article, but it would be nice to see less talk about model simulations and more talk about the concrete conclusions of historical climate change.

It would also be nice to see more in the way of local changes in regions around the Sahara and the Gobi.

Thanks for linking the article.

Well I have personal experience with desertification around the Southern rim of the Gobi Desert. I lived in Shenyang on the Eastern edge in Liaoning which has advanced to an area called Hong Shan (Red Mountain) .When I lived in China from 1998 to 2006 I visited a number of places along the Southern Rim from Liaoning to the Tengger Desert to Takiamakin Dessert in Xinjiang Province in the far West. In the West I was on a tour of scientists. I am a geologist/soil scientist. These deserts once separate are now merging into one desert. I visited an area that was now desert where I found stumps of Aspen forest and in one area in Hotan the capital at the Southern edge of the present extent of the Takiamakin Desert I found rice field exposed in a construction cut under 15 feet of loess including the cross section of an irrigation ditch.

China has lost 30% of their arable land in the past 50 years.

See: China's 'Great Green Wall' Fights Expanding Desert

 

[Ponder This]

Well I have personal experience with desertification around the Southern rim of the Gobi Desert. I lived in Shenyang on the Eastern edge in Liaoning which has advanced to an area called Hong Shan (Red Mountain) .When I lived in China from 1998 to 2006 I visited a number of places along the Southern Rim from Liaoning to the Tengger Desert to Takiamakin Dessert in Xinjiang Province in the far West. In the West I was on a tour of scientists. I am a geologist/soil scientist. These deserts once separate are now merging into one desert. I visited an area that was now desert where I found stumps of Aspen forest and in one area in Hotan the capital at the Southern edge of the present extent of the Takiamakin Desert I found rice field exposed in a construction cut under 15 feet of loess including the cross section of an irrigation ditch.

China has lost 30% of their arable land in the past 50 years.

See: China's 'Great Green Wall' Fights Expanding Desert

As you say, desertification is taking place near the Gobi desert. It's directly observable on a significant scale.

As the article points out:

Deforestation, overgrazing, and overuse of water by people are some of the leading factors responsible for desertification​

and:

“[It’s like what the] American farmer did to cause the Dust Bowl in the 1930s,” says Xian Xue, a leading expert on aeolian desertification in China and professor at the Chinese Academy of Sciences​

That said, I'm more interested in deciphering actual changes in climate due to changes in weather, such as changes in the wet bulb temperature, in terms of things we can really know historically and concretely (rather than speculatively) which is a much harder thing to do. I don't mean to diminish the importance of changes in the Gobi desert or the real effects of desertification upon agriculture.

 

[shunyadragon]

As you say, desertification is taking place near the Gobi desert. It's directly observable on a significant scale.

As the article points out:

Deforestation, overgrazing, and overuse of water by people are some of the leading factors responsible for desertification​

and:

“[It’s like what the] American farmer did to cause the Dust Bowl in the 1930s,” says Xian Xue, a leading expert on aeolian desertification in China and professor at the Chinese Academy of Sciences​

That said, I'm more interested in deciphering actual changes in climate due to changes in weather, such as changes in the wet bulb temperature, in terms of things we can really know historically and concretely (rather than speculatively) which is a much harder thing to do. I don't mean to diminish the importance of changes in the Gobi desert or the real effects of desertification upon agriculture.

Will look deeper, but I know some facts right off that are interesting concerning the rise in recent temperatures. In California there are several factors that contribute to the increase in fires: (1) The rapid in crease in average increase in temperatures in recent history. Excessive development in semiarid forests in California. (3) Too much suppression of fires in recent years. The consistent outstanding factor all across the West remains the increase in average temperatures, which is 2 degrees in fifty years. The problem of an increase in fires is over many regions of the Western states not only California is the increase in temperature.

I do not believe that over grazing and over farming in the Northern region of China is an issue. The main farming is traditional nomadic grazing of sheep, horses and goats, and this has not changed significantly in recent history. Nonetheless, over farming and over grazing is a real problem in the hilly mountainous region well to the South and East of the region suffering from desertification.

The following is a quicky reference: Climate change in China - Wikipedia.

China observed a ground average temperature increase of 0.24℃/decade from 1951 to 2017, exceeding the global rate. The average precipitation of China was 641.3 mm in 2017, 1.8% more than average precipitation of previous years. The sea level rise was 3.3mm/year from 1980 to 2017. There was an annual increase in concentrations of carbon dioxide from 1990 to 2016. The annual mean concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide at Wanliguan Station were 404.4 ppm, 1907 ppb and 329.7 ppb separately in 2016, slightly higher than the global mean concentration in 2016.[5]

Furthermore, climate change will worsen the uneven distribution of water resources in China. Outstanding rises in temperature would exacerbate evapo-transpiration, intensifying the risk of water shortage for agricultural production in the North. Although China's southern region has an abundance of rainfall, most of its water is lost due to flooding. As the Chinese government faces challenges managing its expanding population, an increased demand for water to support the nation's economic activity and people will burden the government. In essence, a water shortage is indeed a large concern for the country.

The Sahara has a very different history, which I am only familiar with the evolution of the paleoclimate in ancient history. Yes, like the rest of the mesic world, particularly the northern hemisphere the Sahara is the result of progressive desertification since the end of the last Ice Age. I may look into it further.