Venturing A Prediction

[Revoltingest]

I'm bad at predicting anything but general trends.
But I'm going out on a limb here.
Treat it as a speculation.

Israel is using the Hamas attack as an opportunity.
A) Rid Gaza of all Palestinians by capture, exile, or death.
B) Cement authoritarian control in Israel.
C) Expand into & settle Gaza.
D) Use political power in USA to thwart any country
that threatens the plan.

It explains how some occurrences could be related.
1) The monumental failure to detect Hamas's attack..
2) Cutting off Gaza's food & utilities.
3) Warning Gazans to leave or die.
4) Giving them inadequate time to do it.
5) Destroying escape routes.

I've low confidence that #1 was intentional....merely possible.
But #2 thru #4 appear more likely to be inspired by Rahm
Emanuel, ie, "never let a crisis go to waste".

Caution:
This might be controversial.
Play nice, people.

 

[Orbit]

I'm bad at predicting anything but general trends.
But I'm going out on a limb here.
Treat it as a speculation.

Israel is using the Hamas attack as an opportunity.
A) Rid Gaza of all Palestinians by capture, exile, or death.
B) Cement authoritarian control in Israel.
C) Expand into & settle Gaza.
D) Use political power in USA to thwart any country
that threatens the plan.

It explains how some occurrences could be related.
1) The monumental failure to detect Hamas's attack..
2) Cutting off Gaza's food & utilities.
3) Warning Gazans to leave or die.
4) Giving them inadequate time to do it.
5) Destroying escape routes.

I've low confidence that #1 was intentional....merely possible.
But #2 thru #4 appear more likely to be inspired by Rahm
Emanuel, ie, "never let a crisis go to waste".

Caution:
This might be controversial.
Play nice, people.

Well, it's plausible, I suppose, but I don't know if it's true. I don't think Egypt will accept the Gazans, so how will they rid Gaza of them? They can't kill them all (I hope). Dunno.

 

[Heyo]

It explains how some occurrences could be related.
1) The monumental failure to detect Hamas's attack..

I've low confidence that #1 was intentional....merely possible.

That depends on how confident you are in the abilities of Mossad, possibly the most capable intelligence agency on the planet.

 

[Heyo]

I'm bad at predicting anything but general trends.
But I'm going out on a limb here.
Treat it as a speculation.

Israel is using the Hamas attack as an opportunity.
A) Rid Gaza of all Palestinians by capture, exile, or death.
B) Cement authoritarian control in Israel.
C) Expand into & settle Gaza.
D) Use political power in USA to thwart any country
that threatens the plan.

Sounds like a "final solution" plan.

If it works, it would be a solution to an age old problem. But, of course, it couldn't work. Too many assumptions that are very shaky. Assuming that Israelis are going to let an authoritarian regime take over Israel, assuming the US would be on board with it, assuming the Arab neighbours would let it happen out of fear of US intervention.
It would be a recipe to start WWIII.

 

[Heyo]

I'm going to make an alternative prediction, based on the same observations.

We agree that Israel "let it happen on purpose" as excuse to occupy (parts of) Gaza.
The deportation order was to flush out Hamas and collaborators from their headquarters and production sites, ensuring that they can't retreat in an orderly manner. Go in and search every nook and cranny for weapon stashes and weapon production, gain intel on Hamas organisation. Take prisoners from those who didn't flee for hostage swaps. Destroy anything useful to Hamas. Retreat.
It doesn't solve the problem but it greatly hampers Hamas ability to attack Israel for some time. And it wouldn't lose them the moral high ground or any supporters.

 

[LuisDantas]

Who knows what Bibi may be capable of, particularly when his reputation and acceptance at near their lowest levels in a good while and, in part as a consequence, his government members and their attitudes are of particularly extreme natures?

Hanlon's Razor may easily apply, as it so often does.

Still, I hope it does not. This is a serious crisis with overwhelming reach and consequences. It requires the handling of people with wisdom and moral goals. I fear it may lack those, on both sides.

At this point I my most clear feeling about the situation is a form of egotistical relief due to my lack of personal duty to deal with it. I fully expect things to become much, much worse before they get any better.

And that may well be what many are hoping for. I am not optimistic enough to expect many people to learn useful lessons from this whole bloody mess.

 

[RestlessSoul]

Here’s a counter prediction. Eventually, the vast mass of the human population in the region, Arab and Israeli, gets sick of all the killing, and refuses to listen anymore to the siren voices calling for more bloodshed. Courageous leadership arises among all the disparate religious, political and national identities, and a peaceful resolution is finally arrived at.

I admit this looks a long way off at the moment. But before dismissing it as an impossibility, remember that it happened in Northern Ireland.

 

[ChristineM]

I'm bad at predicting anything but general trends.
But I'm going out on a limb here.
Treat it as a speculation.

Israel is using the Hamas attack as an opportunity.
A) Rid Gaza of all Palestinians by capture, exile, or death.
B) Cement authoritarian control in Israel.
C) Expand into & settle Gaza.
D) Use political power in USA to thwart any country
that threatens the plan.

It explains how some occurrences could be related.
1) The monumental failure to detect Hamas's attack..
2) Cutting off Gaza's food & utilities.
3) Warning Gazans to leave or die.
4) Giving them inadequate time to do it.
5) Destroying escape routes.

I've low confidence that #1 was intentional....merely possible.
But #2 thru #4 appear more likely to be inspired by Rahm
Emanuel, ie, "never let a crisis go to waste".

Caution:
This might be controversial.
Play nice, people.

Quite possible, it will make Israel a pariah to most of the world for generations to come. But hey, so long as the US backs them and pours money into Isreal whats the problem?

 

[Heyo]

I'm going to make an alternative prediction, based on the same observations.

We agree that Israel "let it happen on purpose" as excuse to occupy (parts of) Gaza.
The deportation order was to flush out Hamas and collaborators from their headquarters and production sites, ensuring that they can't retreat in an orderly manner. Go in and search every nook and cranny for weapon stashes and weapon production, gain intel on Hamas organisation. Take prisoners from those who didn't flee for hostage swaps. Destroy anything useful to Hamas. Retreat.

I forgot: rinse and repeat. Let people come back to the occupied patch (through gates where they are strip searched for weapons) and repeat the same procedure in the next patch, eventually having all the weapons that could be carried away and all the combatants in one place and unarmed civilians in another. Divide et impera.

 

[Revoltingest]

Well, it's plausible, I suppose, but I don't know if it's true. I don't think Egypt will accept the Gazans, so how will they rid Gaza of them? They can't kill them all (I hope). Dunno.

I don't claim truth.
I consider patterns & relationships.

 

[Revoltingest]

That depends on how confident you are in the abilities of Mossad, possibly the most capable intelligence agency on the planet.

I've insufficient info to say more than speculate about possibilities.

 

[Revoltingest]

Sounds like a "final solution" plan.

If it works, it would be a solution to an age old problem. But, of course, it couldn't work. Too many assumptions that are very shaky. Assuming that Israelis are going to let an authoritarian regime take over Israel, assuming the US would be on board with it, assuming the Arab neighbours would let it happen out of fear of US intervention.
It would be a recipe to start WWIII.

I observe that USA is the tail wagged by Israel.
Our government will hint at dissatisfaction now
& then, but fundamentally, it serves Israel.
Democrat or Republican, they all tolerate Israeli
crimes.

 

[Father Heathen]

I've thought about this, too. Israel was apparently warned by Egypt about Hamas' planned attack beforehand, and perhaps allowed it to happen so they would have an excuse/justification to take such drastic and wide-sweeping action. Also, I was also wondering what Hamas actually hoped to achieve with their attack and what sort of reaction they expected from Israel. What strategic value is there in burning and decapitating babies (assuming such reports are true)?

 

[Heyo]

I've thought about this, too. Israel was apparently warned by Egypt about Hamas' planned attack beforehand, and perhaps allowed it to happen so they would have an excuse/justification to take such drastic and wide-sweeping action. Also, I was also wondering what Hamas actually hoped to achieve with their attack and what sort of reaction they expected from Israel. What strategic value is there in burning and decapitating babies (assuming such reports are true)?

Hamas must have anticipated Israel's reaction but may have calculated it as acceptable when having been paid enough.

 

[Heyo]

I observe that USA is the tail wagged by Israel.
Our government will hind at dissatisfaction now
& then, but fundamentally, it serves Israel.
Democrat or Republican, they all tolerate Israeli
crimes.

I agree that the US' support was the least shaky assumption of the three.

 

[Father Heathen]

Hamas must have anticipated Israel's reaction but may have calculated it as acceptable when having been paid enough.

I wonder if the Palestinians suffering from Israel's reprisals share Hamas' appraisal.

 

[Revoltingest]

I agree that the US' support was the least shaky assumption of the three.

Nay, US support is the most rock solid,
regardless of Israeli evils. Our government
will cluck disapproval at times, but it supports
the current carnage in Gaza.

 

[Heyo]

I wonder if the Palestinians suffering from Israel's reprisals share Hamas' appraisal.

If they don't, then there is a chance that Hamas will not be the government after the Israeli's retreat (if I'm right and they do). I don't have high expectations of that happening though.

 

[King Phenomenon]

Yeah I don’t think Israel intentionally let Hamas attack them. That’s ludicrous

 

[Father Heathen]

I know it wouldn't be an ideal solution, but perhaps Egypt and Sudan could allow Palestinians to settle Bir Tawil since neither wish to claim it.