I'm voting for the underlined one!
But I still say Biden will win.
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The US federal election prediction thread
- Thread starter 9-10ths_Penguin
- Start date
But I still say Biden will win.
Ponder This
Well-Known Member
Cool! Do you have a Preferred Prediction Process? Do you like betting markets? polls? pets picking food dishes? Magic 8-balls? Coin-tossing? sign counting? talking heads on social media? Deep Spiritual Meditations and Prayers? Perhaps the whole Biden comes out of his basement, sees his shadow, and goes back in (indicating 4 more years of Trump)? What do you use to make your prediction?
I assess enthusiasm for each candidate.
Comparing this election with Trump vs Hillary,
there's more hatred for Trump this time around.
Biden, like Hillary, doesn't inspire, but he still has
the advantage of being someone who isn't Trump.
You'll see....Biden will win.
Ponder This
Well-Known Member
Excellent!
Enthusiasm for the 2020 election may be higher than any of the past four presidential elections. Polls show more enthusiasm for Trump over Biden than they showed for Trump over Hillary (in comparable polls). And as far as I can tell Trump rallies are huge despite a pandemic.
Meanwhile, more people were upset that Biden was nominated in the Democrat Primaries than were enthusiastic that he was nominated. Yeah, that happened. Nomination performance is one of the 13 key predictors, and I agree with Allan on this one.
Trump and Hillary were the two most disliked major-party nominees in history. Trump is actually not as disliked in 2020 as he was in 2016, but Biden is also not as disliked as Hillary was. It will be interesting to see how hate does this time around. After all, it does seem like a lot of people who dislike Trump this time around hate him and it seems like a lot of the people who don't like Biden just don't like him. Can Biden win on the power of hate? We'll see.
Maybe, although the power of fear is also a strong motivator in elections. I think people may fear Trump more now than they did in 2016.
Ponder This
Well-Known Member
Let's call it the "Fear Factor". If someone could give us some information the Fear Factor that would be great! As far as I can tell around 73% of people are afraid of what might happen post-election in terms of violence, rioting, and looting.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 indicator (correct since 1984) has indicated a Biden victory by being down 0.6%.
The Betting Markets according to PredictIt: Trump 39c Biden 67c
Rasmussen Poll: Trump 46% Biden 49% Some other Candidate 4% Undecided 2%
wellwisher
Well-Known Member
The polls have been used by the left, as an election tampering tool. They are hidden campaign contribution designed to discourage Trump voters. If Biden is 17 points ahead, what is the point of voting for Trump! Fortunately, nobody with half a brain is accepting that, from the same people who brought us the collusion delusion.
The polls constantly over sample Democrats, since Republicans do not wish to be a target by standing out to the speech police and rioting mobs. These are other tools to discourage voters. This silent majority will come out on election day and polls will be wrong like in 2016.
I heard an interesting set of statistics. Trump rallies are analyzed by supporters, in terms of the people who attend. What they found is the audience contains a significant percent of Democrats, as well as up to 25% people who do not normally vote. Unlikely voters for Trump, on paper, are never part of the polls. They will show up.
The black vote for Trump is near about 30% which is high for a Republican. This is the trend of the future. My prediction is Trump wins the electoral college and the Democrats throw another temper tantrum. Those who participated in the coup will be punished. This will include the regulation of social media, and the redefining of journalism so slander and liable suits become possible against propagandists.
The polls constantly over sample Democrats, since Republicans do not wish to be a target by standing out to the speech police and rioting mobs. These are other tools to discourage voters. This silent majority will come out on election day and polls will be wrong like in 2016.
I heard an interesting set of statistics. Trump rallies are analyzed by supporters, in terms of the people who attend. What they found is the audience contains a significant percent of Democrats, as well as up to 25% people who do not normally vote. Unlikely voters for Trump, on paper, are never part of the polls. They will show up.
The black vote for Trump is near about 30% which is high for a Republican. This is the trend of the future. My prediction is Trump wins the electoral college and the Democrats throw another temper tantrum. Those who participated in the coup will be punished. This will include the regulation of social media, and the redefining of journalism so slander and liable suits become possible against propagandists.
Evidence?
Ponder This
Well-Known Member
It looks like the sale of Halloween masks predicts a Trump victory this year (unlike the S&P 500).
Who is the better predictor? Trick-or-Treaters or CEOs?
Who is the better predictor? Trick-or-Treaters or CEOs?