The US federal election prediction thread

[9-10ths_Penguin]

I figured it might be interesting to create a thread on the various predictions, models, etc., for the outcome of the upcoming US federal election.

Which models/forecasts/etc. do you follow? What do they say? Which ones do you trust? Post a link!

Please note that this thread is in a discussion only forum.

Starting things off with one I follow: 338 Canada. I got familiar with their forecasts for Canadian elections, but they now do forecasts for the US - the presidential race, anyhow - as well.

Their model currently shows the odds of winning the electoral college at 74.2% Biden, 25.4% Trump. Biden's currently down from his high point in the prediction (~83% in July, IIRC).

 

[Quetzal]

This is tough, I think Trump is in trouble because he has isolated so many non-white male groups that it's hard for me to fathom them voting for him. I do not follow any models at the moment but my prediction is Biden crushes the popular vote but struggles with the EC.

 

[JustGeorge]

I try not to pay attention to the predictions... they all differ too much, and generally get everyone too excited over something that hasn't come to pass yet.

I'm not even making any personal predictions at this point. I know what I'd like to see, but I also believe my country is fully capable of disappointing me, both on a personal and administrative level. So, we'll see.

 

[9-10ths_Penguin]

This is tough, I think Trump is in trouble because he has isolated so many non-white male groups that it's hard for me to fathom them voting for him. I do not follow any models at the moment but my prediction is Biden crushes the popular vote but struggles with the EC.

Fivethirtyeight is currently putting the odds of that scenario (Biden wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college) at 1 in 8.

In contrast, they're putting the odds of Trump winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college at under 1 in 100.

2020 Election Forecast

 

[Stevicus]

I asked the Magic 8-Ball whether Biden would win, and it said "Outlook not so good." But it's just an 8-Ball. What does it really know about politics?

Welcome to Ask 8-Ball, The Ultimate Online Oracle

 

[9-10ths_Penguin]

I try not to pay attention to the predictions... they all differ too much, and generally get everyone too excited over something that hasn't come to pass yet.

Most of the predictions I've seen have been pretty close, regardless of political leanings of the organization doing them. I mean, even the Economist - which is pretty solidly right-wing - is predicting an 83% chance of Biden winning.

That being said, I'm not sure I'm seeing the predictions that any Republicans here are watching... hence this thread.

 

[Terry Sampson]

Sports Betting News and Vegas Odds

 

[JustGeorge]

I asked the Magic 8-Ball whether Biden would win, and it said "Outlook not so good." But it's just an 8-Ball. What does it really know about politics?

I asked it the same question, and it said "without a doubt!"

Silly, confused 8-Ball...

Most of the predictions I've seen have been pretty close, regardless of political leanings of the organization doing them. I mean, even the Economist - which is pretty solidly right-wing - is predicting an 83% chance of Biden winning.

That being said, I'm not sure I'm seeing the predictions that any Republicans here are watching... hence this thread.

I wish I could recall the predictions for last election. There was a lot of genuine shock and disbelief. Have any statistics from that, just for conversation's sake?

 

[Stevicus]

Sports Betting News and Vegas Odds

Interesting site. I noticed that the odds are in Biden's favor.

Another possibly familiar name, Betfair runs a betting exchange, which is a bit like taking betting and tossing it down to Wall Street. Unlike running 50/50 odds, Betfair Exchange has Biden as a slight favorite to win, though if Trump wins the payout will be slightly better. Like PointsBet, Betfair shows decimal odds and offers most of the same props beyond the outright winner.

• Joe Biden: 1.98
• Donald Trump: 2.06

Those who bet on Trump would get a larger payout if Trump wins.

 

[Stevicus]

I asked it the same question, and it said "without a doubt!"

Silly, confused 8-Ball...

I should have asked the 9-Ball instead.

 

[Heyo]

I figured it might be interesting to create a thread on the various predictions, models, etc., for the outcome of the upcoming US federal election.

Which models/forecasts/etc. do you follow? What do they say? Which ones do you trust? Post a link!

Please note that this thread is in a discussion only forum.

Starting things off with one I follow: 338 Canada. I got familiar with their forecasts for Canadian elections, but they now do forecasts for the US - the presidential race, anyhow - as well.

Their model currently shows the odds of winning the electoral college at 74.2% Biden, 25.4% Trump. Biden's currently down from his high point in the prediction (~83% in July, IIRC).

My personal prediction is that Trump and his team will do anything to steal the election. There is basically no chance he'd win in a fair election but when the PotUS doesn't believe in fair elections, who am I to disagree?

 

[9-10ths_Penguin]

I wish I could recall the predictions for last election. There was a lot of genuine shock and disbelief. Have any statistics from that, just for conversation's sake?

I'd have to Google, but from what I recall, the issue was with the level of precision of the models not being adequately explained.

538's model for Michigan ended up being the biggest issue, IIRC. The models were predicting a Clinton win by a small margin, but the result was a Trump win by a razor-thin margin. The predicted number of votes for each candidate were very close to actual, but because the state assigns its electoral college votes all-or-nothing, a small difference between the predicted and actual votes results ended up making a huge difference in EC numbers.

 

[9-10ths_Penguin]

I wish I could recall the predictions for last election. There was a lot of genuine shock and disbelief. Have any statistics from that, just for conversation's sake?

FYI - I had to Google it, but here's 538's post-election analysis for the 2016 election:

Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else

 

[Evangelicalhumanist]

In 2018, I predicted that the Democrats would pick up 38 seats, plus/minus 2. They picked up 40.

This year, I predict a Biden win, by about 8% in the popular vote, and a minimum of 310 EC votes.
I predict the Democrats hold onto the house, with a slight increase (about 10 seats)
I predict the Democrats take the Senate by just 2 seats.

 

[Terry Sampson]

This year, I predict

From your lips to God's ears.

 

[JustGeorge]

FYI - I had to Google it, but here's 538's post-election analysis for the 2016 election:

Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else

That's very interesting.

I suspect this election, there will be some kind of controversy regarding mail in ballots, and at least some won't be counted. And, of course, there are my personal ideas, but is there any way polls take these kinds of circumstances into accounts?

 

[sun rise]

My personal prediction is that Trump and his team will do anything to steal the election. There is basically no chance he'd win in a fair election but when the PotUS doesn't believe in fair elections, who am I to disagree?

I agree unless it's a total blowout for Biden and Democrats in the Senate. The whining then will be louder than a jet engine at full throttle but I'd bet a small amount of money at even odds that it would stop there.

 

[Revoltingest]

My prediction is worth what you paid for it.
Harris by a healthy margin.
(Biden will be the interim President.)

 

[Suave]

My prediction is worth what you paid for it.
Harris by a healthy margin.
(Biden will be the interim President.)

I hope this prediction of yours does actually happen to become true.

 

[Revoltingest]

I hope this prediction of yours does actually happen to become true.

I've no hope for either to win.
Whatever happens will happen.
And of course, Jorgensen will lose.