Running the Numbers

[Nakosis]

In watching some people reporting on the Coronavirus I hear some reporting a high death rate.

So looking at the current numbers in the US,

Total confirmed cases 200289
Total confirmed deaths 4394
Total confirmed recovered 8707
United States Coronavirus: 205,035 Cases and 4,516 Deaths - Worldometer

So once you get the virus chance of death ~ 2%
Chance of recovery ~ 4%

So this looks like a 1 to 2 ratio of death to recovery. That the current running rate. Reported as such seems pretty dire. However there is a delay in recovery rate which can take two to six weeks. It takes a longer time to be counted a confirmed recovery vs a confirmed death.

It'll take about 6 weeks to see what the actual recovery numbers are.

 

[sun rise]

It'll take about 6 weeks to see what the actual recovery numbers are.

Given how much of a failure the US is at testing, what I'm hearing from those who are in a position to know is that the numbers that matter now are those who have been admitted to the hospital and the number in the ICU.

 

[Rational Agnostic]

In watching some people reporting on the Coronavirus I hear some reporting a high death rate.

So looking at the current numbers in the US,

Total confirmed cases 200289
Total confirmed deaths 4394
Total confirmed recovered 8707
United States Coronavirus: 205,035 Cases and 4,516 Deaths - Worldometer

So once you get the virus chance of death ~ 2%
Chance of recovery ~ 4%

So this looks like a 1 to 2 ratio of death to recovery. That the current running rate. Reported as such seems pretty dire. However there is a delay in recovery rate which can take two to six weeks. It takes a longer time to be counted a confirmed recovery vs a confirmed death.

It'll take about 6 weeks to see what the actual recovery numbers are.

You have to realize that most people who recover are not counted in "confirmed recover" status. With hospitals already overwhelmed by the virus, they're not going to ask the average person who got a test and is recovering at home to come back in for tests to confirm they are recovered once they feel better. So, the ratio of death to recovery that you've calculated is likely very exagerrated.

 

[Nakosis]

@sun rise , @Hubert Farnsworth

I'm just trying to understand what is being reported by others. Depending on who you listen to one can go from extreme optimism to extreme pessimism.

I've also heard that a person has only a 1 in 300,000 chance of death by Coronavirus. The numbers are constantly changing. Even during the time I created the OP the numbers changed at the site I linked to.

Maybe it'll take a year to get any real idea, but in the meantime the reporting continues.

 

[PureX]

My understanding is that about 80% of those who contract the virus will experience it as a cold, and recover unaided. That's 4 out of 5. Of those who become seriously ill enough to require treatment, we don't yet know for sure how many will likely die, because we are currently treating them, and more are coming in. Some are dying and some are not, but until the event is over, or the incoming numbers plateau, we can't be sure of that ratio. And even when the incoming numbers do plateau, we will likely get better at treating them, so the death ratio will continue to drop.

All in all there is no reason to become panicked. Unfortunately, it's a serious enough pandemic that nearly everyone will be negatively impacted in one form or another, from forced isolation and job loss to a cold and flu, to the deaths of loved ones. So we need to prepare ourselves for these eventualities.

 

[shunyadragon]

In watching some people reporting on the Coronavirus I hear some reporting a high death rate.

So looking at the current numbers in the US,

Total confirmed cases 200289
Total confirmed deaths 4394
Total confirmed recovered 8707
United States Coronavirus: 205,035 Cases and 4,516 Deaths - Worldometer

So once you get the virus chance of death ~ 2%
Chance of recovery ~ 4%

So this looks like a 1 to 2 ratio of death to recovery. That the current running rate. Reported as such seems pretty dire. However there is a delay in recovery rate which can take two to six weeks. It takes a longer time to be counted a confirmed recovery vs a confirmed death.

It'll take about 6 weeks to see what the actual recovery numbers are.

Chance of recovery is not ~4%. Actually they long term death rate is likely less than 1%.

 

[wandering peacefully]

So many people will have this without anyone knowing and so many will recover without being tested, we will never know the real numbers of infection. Not unless a year from now they have some test to give everyone showing if they have developed antibodies.

 

[shunyadragon]

The ridiculousness of Fauci's estimate of 100,000 to 200,000 becomes apparent with basic elementary math. At a fatality rate of 2% it would require 5,000,000 cases of coronavirus.to reach 100,000 deaths.

 

[sun rise]

The ridiculousness of Fauci's estimate of 100,000 to 200,000 becomes apparent with basic elementary math. At a fatality rate of 2% it would require 5,000,000 cases of coronavirus.to reach 100,000 deaths.

5 million out of on the order of 330 million is not that outrageous a percentage if the current measures fail but from the data so far it seems large to me as the following rough calculation shows:

Using Spain as an example, their population is ~47 million and they've had roughly 100,000 cases so far. That's on the rough order of 1/2 million for the USA.

Since the curve seems to have been bent there, perhaps a doubling is reasonable to 1 million for the USA.

If the nuts running around holding church services and ignoring the disease here are too large, that 1million could easily be 2 million.

 

[shunyadragon]

5 million out of on the order of 330 million is not that outrageous a percentage if the current measures fail but from the data so far it seems large to me as the following rough calculation shows:

Using Spain as an example, their population is ~47 million and they've had roughly 100,000 cases so far. That's on the rough order of 1/2 million for the USA.

Since the curve seems to have been bent there, perhaps a doubling is reasonable to 1 million for the USA.

If the nuts running around holding church services and ignoring the disease here are too large, that 1million could easily be 2 million.

Double the number of the cases and fatalities in China, and take into consideration China is a very densely populated country, and consider like the USA the failed to respond early, like the USA, and will not come up with anything close to these ridiculous figures. Triple the figures in China and still does not work.

 

[Nakosis]

The ridiculousness of Fauci's estimate of 100,000 to 200,000 becomes apparent with basic elementary math. At a fatality rate of 2% it would require 5,000,000 cases of coronavirus.to reach 100,000 deaths.

Someone suggested that the WH is exaggerating the numbers so that when in turns out much less they can take credit for all of the lives saved.

 

[shunyadragon]

Someone suggested that the WH is exaggerating the numbers so that when in turns out much less they can take credit for all of the lives saved.

I believe this is so, and escribed this in another thread.

Nonetheless April and May will be bad months.

 

[Twilight Hue]

In watching some people reporting on the Coronavirus I hear some reporting a high death rate.

So looking at the current numbers in the US,

Total confirmed cases 200289
Total confirmed deaths 4394
Total confirmed recovered 8707
United States Coronavirus: 205,035 Cases and 4,516 Deaths - Worldometer

So once you get the virus chance of death ~ 2%
Chance of recovery ~ 4%

So this looks like a 1 to 2 ratio of death to recovery. That the current running rate. Reported as such seems pretty dire. However there is a delay in recovery rate which can take two to six weeks. It takes a longer time to be counted a confirmed recovery vs a confirmed death.

It'll take about 6 weeks to see what the actual recovery numbers are.

Even I'm getting confused by all this now.

Now I'm hearing the potential numbers hundreds of thousands from the Trump administration.

In all honesty I don't think nobody knows how many until it actually happens, but that said it's still makes for some scary statistics.

 

[Twilight Hue]

Someone suggested that the WH is exaggerating the numbers so that when in turns out much less they can take credit for all of the lives saved.

That would be pretty sad if people resorted to games like that.

 

[shunyadragon]

Even I'm getting confused by all this now.

Now I'm hearing the potential numbers hundreds of thousands from the Trump administration.

In all honesty I don't think nobody knows how many until it actually happens, but that said it's still makes for some scary statistics.

To understand the outrageousness of these fear based figures, just compare the natural bell curve of China coronavirus in a densely populated country that failed to implement early and proactive measures. It is well understood that they underestimated their cases and deaths, . . . but just triple their figures, and you will come up with nothing like the outrageous Fauci figures.

 

[shunyadragon]

That would be pretty sad if people resorted to games like that.

Are you naive enough to believe the WH would not do that!?!?!?!

 

[Revoltingest]

One guy I know had no symptoms, but tested
positive upon admittance to a hospital (for a stroke).
How many are asymptomatic & untested?