New Coronavirus information on the research end of things. Progress!!

[Twilight Hue]

Scientists figure out how new coronavirus breaks into human cells | Live Science

One step closer to ending this thing or at least putting it under control.

Fingers crossed.

 

[shunyadragon]

Scientists figure out how new coronavirus breaks into human cells | Live Science

One step closer to ending this thing or at least putting it under control.

Fingers crossed.

I believe that the Coronavirus will follow a similar pattern as other virus that jump from animals to humans. At first they are very contagious and have a high death rate, as time progresses the death rate drops and the severity of the virus infection decreases. This pattern was followed in China for about three months. This is the pattern that will likely be for the virus as it infected other populations. As time passes in all countries and the course of the infection over time the severity and the death rate will drop, and Coronavirus will become endemic with the human population and possibly will cycle at different times from humans to animals and humans to animals.

Based on the graphs and tables I predict the infection rate and severity of the coronavirus will decrease and fade through May.

See some graphs and maps that reflect the nature of the coronavirus over time here.

Coronavirus Map: Tracking the Spread of the Outbreak

 

[sun rise]

I believe that the Coronavirus will follow a similar pattern as other virus that jump from animals to humans. At first they are very contagious and have a high death rate, as time progresses the death rate drops and the severity of the virus infection decreases. This pattern was followed in China for about three months. This is the pattern that will likely be for the virus as it infected other populations. As time passes in all countries and the course of the infection over time the severity and the death rate will drop, and Coronavirus will become endemic with the human population and possibly will cycle at different times from humans to animals and humans to animals.

Based on the graphs and tables I predict the infection rate and severity of the coronavirus will decrease and fade through May.

See some graphs and maps that reflect the nature of the coronavirus over time here.

Coronavirus Map: Tracking the Spread of the Outbreak

The effect of a high death rate makes sense since the host dying means that the viruses that cause that death don't continue to multiple so evolutionary selection is for those that don't kill the host.

I'm not sure contagion follows that path but we'll see over time.

 

[shunyadragon]

The effect of a high death rate makes sense since the host dying means that the viruses that cause that death don't continue to multiple so evolutionary selection is for those that don't kill the host.

I'm not sure contagion follows that path but we'll see over time.

True. China did not save China from the virus. I estimate that roughly 70-80% of those infected are minor infections. It followed the natural course of the virus relationship with humans, and Trump cannot claim victory in May orJune.

 

[whirlingmerc]

True. China did not save China from the virus. I estimate that roughly 70-80% of those infected are minor infections. It followed the natural course of the virus relationship with humans, and Trump cannot claim victory in May orJune.

No one knows enough about this virus to say for sure.
But it's great that they have a good start on the research.

 

[Ponder This]

I believe that the Coronavirus will follow a similar pattern as other virus that jump from animals to humans. At first they are very contagious and have a high death rate, as time progresses the death rate drops and the severity of the virus infection decreases. This pattern was followed in China for about three months. This is the pattern that will likely be for the virus as it infected other populations. As time passes in all countries and the course of the infection over time the severity and the death rate will drop, and Coronavirus will become endemic with the human population and possibly will cycle at different times from humans to animals and humans to animals.

Usually those viruses are not pandemic. This virus is pandemic. So it should be treated like other pandemic viruses.

 

[exchemist]

Usually those viruses are not pandemic. This virus is pandemic. So it should be treated like other pandemic viruses.

Yes. They are not pandemic any more, due to the process @shunyadragon has outlined. Pandemics are what you get when there is no immunity in a population.But indeed, while this pandemic exists it should be treated as such.

 

[Mock Turtle]

Still a year to a year and a half for a vaccine though, even according to the article.

 

[Ponder This]

Yes. They are not pandemic any more, due to the process @shunyadragon has outlined. Pandemics are what you get when there is no immunity in a population.But indeed, while this pandemic exists it should be treated as such.

Most of such diseases were not pandemic to begin with.
Lack of immunity does not guarantee a virus will be pandemic.
While @shunyadragon did give the basic outline of how such diseases progress, it is not clear that this virus will follow the time frame he gave: fading through May. Many pandemic diseases do take years to run their course.
However, it does look like South Korea has managed to get a handle on the virus, and this is a good sign. However, South Korea has only had just over 8000 cases total to date.
It will be interesting to see how quickly the virus peaks in Italy where the virus has been going for about as long as it has been in South Korea, except that there are almost 25,000 total cases currently in Italy and the virus has not peaked.
For reference, the population of South Korea is approximately 51.47 million and the population of Italy is 60.48 million.

Getting a good handle on the initial spread of the virus is a key first step.
And it looks like South Korea's plan of having quick easy access to testing has had a major impact on the spread of the virus in their country, allowing them to quickly determine who's infected and keep those people from infecting more people.
I also don't think countries are going to take the sorts of extreme steps China took to contain the spread of the virus in their own country.
So it's very much up in the air as to when this virus will peak in various countries.

 

[shunyadragon]

Most of such diseases were not pandemic to begin with.
Lack of immunity does not guarantee a virus will be pandemic.
While @shunyadragon did give the basic outline of how such diseases progress, it is not clear that this virus will follow the time frame he gave: fading through May. Many pandemic diseases do take years to run their course.
However, it does look like South Korea has managed to get a handle on the virus, and this is a good sign. However, South Korea has only had just over 8000 cases total to date.
It will be interesting to see how quickly the virus peaks in Italy where the virus has been going for about as long as it has been in South Korea, except that there are almost 25,000 total cases currently in Italy and the virus has not peaked.
For reference, the population of South Korea is approximately 51.47 million and the population of Italy is 60.48 million.

Getting a good handle on the initial spread of the virus is a key first step.
And it looks like South Korea's plan of having quick easy access to testing has had a major impact on the spread of the virus in their country, allowing them to quickly determine who's infected and keep those people from infecting more people.
I also don't think countries are going to take the sorts of extreme steps China took to contain the spread of the virus in their own country.
So it's very much up in the air as to when this virus will peak in various countries.

The pattern of seasonal viruses like the flu are predictable and my prediction stands based on the pattern in China, and Korea one of the next. It is not a matter of anyone getting a handle on the natural bell curve course of the spread, death rate and severity of the infection. In China and Korea it was the natural pattern of the virus relationship with the human population. The later countries to become infected the pattern is similar.

We can reduce and remediate the effects of the flu with development of vaccines, and isolation, but like flus every year the virus takes its natural Course. The bottom line is no one can control the course of the flu, and not China, Korea nor the USA.

My prediction stands.

 

[Ponder This]

The pattern of seasonal viruses like the flu are predictable and my prediction stands based on the pattern in China, and Korea one of the next. It is not a matter of anyone getting a handle on the natural bell curve course of the spread, death rate and severity of the infection. In China and Korea it was the natural pattern of the virus relationship with the human population. The later countries to become infected the pattern is similar.

We can reduce and remediate the effects of the flu with development of vaccines, and isolation, but like flus every year the virus takes its natural Course. The bottom line is no one can control the course of the flu, and not China, Korea nor the USA.

My prediction stands.

You can actually look at the curves from Korea and Italy right next to each other and see that they have not followed the same pattern.
South Korea Coronavirus: 8,236 Cases and 75 Deaths - Worldometer
Italy Coronavirus: 27,980 Cases and 2,158 Deaths - Worldometer
"trace, test and treat" has had a major impact on the spread of the virus in South Korea, whereas in Italy, they have not effectively limited the spread of the virus.

 

[shunyadragon]

You can actually look at the curves from Korea and Italy right next to each other and see that they have not followed the same pattern.
South Korea Coronavirus: 8,236 Cases and 75 Deaths - Worldometer
Italy Coronavirus: 27,980 Cases and 2,158 Deaths - Worldometer
"trace, test and treat" has had a major impact on the spread of the virus in South Korea, whereas in Italy, they have not effectively limited the spread of the virus.

I looked at the worldometer, and they do not give enough information for you to make the claim you do.

Curves of course do not look the same, but the follow the same pattern. They follow the same bell curve pattern. Italy is a later All viruses follow the same pattern, and not enough information to compare the trends in different countries. Numbers of cases do not give enough information that reflect the curve of the trends of the viruses in different countries. Human can only reduce the impact of the virus, and they cannot change the over all history or course of the infection, the different strains.

The curve showing Total Serious and Critical cases does show the pattern I described of most virus histories is that the severity of the infections increase early and then decrease over time.
Also the graph that shows the recovery rate increases over time, and the death rate decreases over time.

 

[Ponder This]

I looked at the worldometer, and they do not give enough information for you to make the claim you do.

Curves of course do not look the same, but the follow the same pattern. They follow the same bell curve pattern. Italy is a later All viruses follow the same pattern, and not enough information to compare the trends in different countries. Numbers of cases do not give enough information that reflect the curve of the trends of the viruses in different countries. Human can only reduce the impact of the virus, and they cannot change the over all history or course of the infection, the different strains.

The curve showing Total Serious and Critical cases does show the pattern I described of most virus histories is that the severity of the infections increase early and then decrease over time.
Also the graph that shows the recovery rate increases over time, and the death rate decreases over time.

It's not just my claim. I linked a an article explaining how the approach in South Korea had an impact on the spread of the virus. It's an evident fact.
From data, you can see that Italy and South Korea were infected starting around the same time, but that cases per day have gone down in South Korea while they continued going up in Italy. If they followed the same pattern over time, then cases per day in Italy should've started going down a week ago, around the same time as cases started going down in South Korea, but that didn't happen.

That the virus will eventually recede is not in question, but you made a time prediction: fading in May. The evidence so far is insufficient to conclude that with confidence at this time. IMO.

 

[exchemist]

It's not just my claim. I linked a an article explaining how the approach in South Korea had an impact on the spread of the virus. It's an evident fact.
From data, you can see that Italy and South Korea were infected starting around the same time, but that cases per day have gone down in South Korea while they continued going up in Italy. If they followed the same pattern over time, then cases per day in Italy should've started going down a week ago, around the same time as cases started going down in South Korea, but that didn't happen.

That the virus will eventually recede is not in question, but you made a time prediction: fading in May. The evidence so far is insufficient to conclude that with confidence at this time. IMO.

However, Italy may have the last laugh, if they achieve herd immunity while S Korea gets another outbreak next season. But again, too early to predict.

 

[shunyadragon]

It's not just my claim. I linked a an article explaining how the approach in South Korea had an impact on the spread of the virus. It's an evident fact.
From data, you can see that Italy and South Korea were infected starting around the same time, but that cases per day have gone down in South Korea while they continued going up in Italy. If they followed the same pattern over time, then cases per day in Italy should've started going down a week ago, around the same time as cases started going down in South Korea, but that didn't happen.

That the virus will eventually recede is not in question, but you made a time prediction: fading in May. The evidence so far is insufficient to conclude that with confidence at this time. IMO.

My prediction stands taking into consideration what you cite.

 

[shunyadragon]

It's not just my claim. I linked a an article explaining how the approach in South Korea had an impact on the spread of the virus. It's an evident fact.
From data, you can see that Italy and South Korea were infected starting around the same time, but that cases per day have gone down in South Korea while they continued going up in Italy. If they followed the same pattern over time, then cases per day in Italy should've started going down a week ago, around the same time as cases started going down in South Korea, but that didn't happen.

That the virus will eventually recede is not in question, but you made a time prediction: fading in May. The evidence so far is insufficient to conclude that with confidence at this time. IMO.

Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research

This a good site to follow the course of the virus.

If you follow the graphs of China and South Korea, The graph of South Korea follows the same downward trend of China reflecting more the nature of the Virus than human efforts to control the virus. Looking at the trends in different countries reflect the trends as a whole depending on the strain.

Just like the various stains of the flu we cannot contain nor change the course of a virus, but we can remediate and reduce its effect, by for example vaccines or isolation particularly the vulnerable population.

 

[Ponder This]

My prediction stands taking into consideration what you cite.

Does it really? Or do you just mean that nothing I've said has outright proved your prediction won't come true? Hmm.

Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research

This a good site to follow the course of the virus.

If you follow the graphs of China and South Korea, The graph of South Korea follows the same downward trend of China reflecting more the nature of the Virus than human efforts to control the virus. Looking at the trends in different countries reflect the trends as a whole depending on the strain.

Just like the various stains of the flu we cannot contain nor change the course of a virus, but we can remediate and reduce its effect, by for example vaccines or isolation particularly the vulnerable population.

I agree that different strains of the corona virus might behave differently. I would also say you gave an okay site for tracking the Corona virus.
Look at the data for China and South Korea from the site you linked.
China:
Total confirmed deaths due to COVID-19 per million people
Total confirmed cases of COVID-19 per million people
Daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19
South Korea:
Total confirmed deaths due to COVID-19 per million people
Total confirmed cases of COVID-19 per million people
Daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19

Also look at this from the website you linked:

And look at Italy and Iran, countries that the Corona virus entered at close to the same time as it entered South Korea... and yet their curves differ from South Korea's.

But you say you are confident about your prediction. That's great. I don't say you are wrong; I just think it's a bit early to be confident in your assessment.
I think maybe end of March, we'll have a clear enough picture to make predictions about May. That's my guess.

 

[shunyadragon]

Does it really? Or do you just mean that nothing I've said has outright proved your prediction won't come true? Hmm.



I agree that different strains of the corona virus might behave differently. I would also say you gave an okay site for tracking the Corona virus.
Look at the data for China and South Korea from the site you linked.
China:
Total confirmed deaths due to COVID-19 per million people
Total confirmed cases of COVID-19 per million people
Daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19
South Korea:
Total confirmed deaths due to COVID-19 per million people
Total confirmed cases of COVID-19 per million people
Daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19

Also look at this from the website you linked:

And look at Italy and Iran, countries that the Corona virus entered at close to the same time as it entered South Korea... and yet their curves differ from South Korea's.

But you say you are confident about your prediction. That's great. I don't say you are wrong; I just think it's a bit early to be confident in your assessment.
I think maybe end of March, we'll have a clear enough picture to make predictions about May. That's my guess.

The problem is you are selectively citing the website without understanding it. The bell curve examples in the graphs is a bit extreme and idealistic ranges of possible outcomes, but nonetheless it does illustrate my original predictions of a bell curve analogue model of the course of the flu. Look at the whole website to understand the the actual course of the virus over time. Using the whole evidence from the site the following is helpful understanding the course of the relationship between the virus and humans.

For the coronavirus the original bell curve infection pattern of Wuhan is the model for the natural course of the virus. Because the Chinese failed to implement remediation measures early, even when warned by doctors, the virus shows a fairly normal predictable infection Bell curve pattern. At present the pattern in the rest of China under strict isolation shows a predictable irregular pattern with 'popups' of infection that will be the case in other countries.

The remediation efforts to reduce the spread of the corona virus have interesting effects on the spread of the virus. The normal spread of the virus in the population creates immunity in the population. Yes, isolation can reduces the spread of the virus on the short term. Efforts in isolation creates an irregular spread of infection, but does not stop the spread in the normal course. The fact that by far the majority of those infected show little or no symptoms you have many spreading the virus regardless of of isolation. This fact in part defeats the ultimate goal of isolation as the virus sporaticely moves into the population without immunity primarily by those showing litle of no symptoms. The statistic in Wuhan China indicate that 81% plus of all those infected show little or no symptoms. Many countries that implement isolation policies show an irregular pattern in the spread of new cases due to these factors, such as China, and South Korea show this irregular pattern after they implemented these policies followed by recent spikes of new cases, because of the policies the population does not develop a uniform natural immunity to the coronavirus. This natural development of immunity of populations in the previous history of viruses demonstrates this, and immunity can be traced in populations in response to future infections of flu viruses.

Again the references 'you cited' confirm my original predictions. The natural course of the coronavirus shows a decrease in the mortality rate, and severity of the virus over time. The benefit of the isolation policy is that this delays the natural course of the virus, and potentially decreases the severity and mortality of the virus, but does not greatly change the ultimate course of the virus.

More geographically and socially isolated show an irregular pattern of infection rate.

Information is sketchy concerning North Korea, but the indications are it is experiencing an infection pattern similar to Wuhan China,

The peak of the coronavirus spread will still likely be somewhere between the end of April to early June most likely early May. In part depending on whether the corona virus develops new varieties of the virus that creates a new infection pattern.

More to follow . . .

 

[shunyadragon]

Scientists figure out how new coronavirus breaks into human cells | Live Science

One step closer to ending this thing or at least putting it under control.

Fingers crossed.

This may be helpful if like the flu the coronavirus follows the cyclic pattern and returns to the human population like the flu.

 

[Ponder This]

The problem is you are selectively citing the website without understanding it. The bell curve examples in the graphs is a bit extreme and idealistic ranges of possible outcomes, but nonetheless it does illustrate my original predictions of a bell curve analogue model of the course of the flu. Look at the whole website to understand the the actual course of the virus over time. Using the whole evidence from the site the following is helpful understanding the course of the relationship between the virus and humans.

For the coronavirus the original bell curve infection pattern of Wuhan is the model for the natural course of the virus. Because the Chinese failed to implement remediation measures early, even when warned by doctors, the virus shows a fairly normal predictable infection Bell curve pattern. At present the pattern in the rest of China under strict isolation shows a predictable irregular pattern with 'popups' of infection that will be the case in other countries.

The remediation efforts to reduce the spread of the corona virus have interesting effects on the spread of the virus. The normal spread of the virus in the population creates immunity in the population. Yes, isolation can reduces the spread of the virus on the short term. Efforts in isolation creates an irregular spread of infection, but does not stop the spread in the normal course. The fact that by far the majority of those infected show little or no symptoms you have many spreading the virus regardless of of isolation. This fact in part defeats the ultimate goal of isolation as the virus sporaticely moves into the population without immunity primarily by those showing litle of no symptoms. The statistic in Wuhan China indicate that 81% plus of all those infected show little or no symptoms. Many countries that implement isolation policies show an irregular pattern in the spread of new cases due to these factors, such as China, and South Korea show this irregular pattern after they implemented these policies followed by recent spikes of new cases, because of the policies the population does not develop a uniform natural immunity to the coronavirus. This natural development of immunity of populations in the previous history of viruses demonstrates this, and immunity can be traced in populations in response to future infections of flu viruses.

Again the references 'you cited' confirm my original predictions. The natural course of the coronavirus shows a decrease in the mortality rate, and severity of the virus over time. The benefit of the isolation policy is that this delays the natural course of the virus, and potentially decreases the severity and mortality of the virus, but does not greatly change the ultimate course of the virus.

More geographically and socially isolated show an irregular pattern of infection rate.

Information is sketchy concerning North Korea, but the indications are it is experiencing an infection pattern similar to Wuhan China,

The peak of the coronavirus spread will still likely be somewhere between the end of April to early June most likely early May. In part depending on whether the corona virus develops new varieties of the virus that creates a new infection pattern.

More to follow . . .

I look forward to the more, because I do not enjoy talking past each other. We do seem to agree on a lot of points, including the general courses of viruses. BUT, you made a prediction of fading in May that you have just now adjusted to be somewhere between end of April and early June, which just proves my point that you jumped at making a prediction when the data didn't actually support that prediction with confidence. And I pointed out that the data was too variable to be confident in a prediction of fading in May and that we wouldn't really be able to be sufficiently confident about what would happen in May until we got to about the end of March.

I'm reassured that you agree that the decline of the virus in China has been primarily due to remediation efforts as opposed to the natural course of the virus in China. I'm sure that as we continue to monitor the situation, more accurate predictions will emerge as to when the virus will peak.