Israeli elections

[Caladan]

Pretty arcane thread. Does anyone have some sort of primer to let us uninitiated get up to speed?

After reading some of the slightly to fully misinformed posts here I think an Israeli view is in order, so I'll indulge you.

First to the very basics. Benjamin Netanyhau and his Likud-Israel Beytenu alliance won the most seats.
Now to the full and bigger picture. Although Netanyahu and the right wing Likud received the most votes, their power has dramatically weakened. They received significantly less votes than in the previous elections. The political division in these election is balanced to 60 seats to the right wing and 60 seats to the center-left.
This means several important things. A new comer into Israeli politics (but not an unkown media figure in Israel) Yair Laipd, a centrist, received an impressive 19 seats power. Making Lapid the second most powerful man in these elections. Lapid conditions a coalition under a couple of issues: Economic changes and resumption of negotiations with the Palestinians.
The focus on economic realities in Israel is a big factor in shifting attention from an Iran-Israel rivalry and into domestic social and economic issues.
Another important element in this reality is that Lapid is part of the secular camp in Israel, and as we examine the elections results, the Ultra-Orthodox parties may find themselves out of the coalition which will be a welcomed changed for a large secular public in Israel who wishes to see better separation of religion and state, and in addition equal load sharing in an Israeli society in which the Ultra orthodox community does not share the same economic load or the same load in other Israeli issues such as military service.
Other results of these elections is the still weakened position of the Israeli labour, and the empowerment of left wing parties like Meretz which have doubled their votes, and incidentally the party I voted for (as much as I try to make my posts about Israeli security issues according to standard narratives).

So, to sum my post. The results put the parliament balanced between 60 seats to the right wing and 60 seats to the center-left. A potential to shift the focus to economic changes from the security and geopolitical narrative, and a further potential for more secularization, at least from the ultra orthodox monopolies as they have butted themselves into previous coalitions.

One of the dramas of these elections is that with an equal power to the right wing, there were strong voices in the center-left powers to create a counter bloc to Netanyahu and the right wing. Or the other option is to go into coalition as Lapid seems to be doing under certain conditions and red lintes placed for Netanyahu and the right wing bloc.

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

After reading some of the slightly to fully misinformed posts here I think an Israeli view is in order, ...

But which one?

So, to sum my post. The results put the parliament balanced between 60 seats to the right wing and 60 seats to the center-left. A potential to shift the focus to economic changes from the security and geopolitical narrative, and a further potential for more secularization, at least from the ultra orthodox monopolies as they have butted themselves into previous coalitions.

One of the dramas of these elections is that with an equal power to the right wing, there were strong voices in the center-left powers to create a counter bloc to Netanyahu and the right wing. Or the other option is to go into coalition as Lapid seems to be doing under certain conditions and red lintes placed for Netanyahu and the right wing bloc.

Actually, it's 61/59 and Lapid immediately rejected the idea of a counter-block.

Interestingly, I saw one young Israeli blogger characterize Lapid as the Sarkozy of Israel. Personally , I doubt that his yuppy Tel Aviv populism will prove to be any better than his father's.

 

[Desert Snake]

Well, this is an interesting thread.

 

[Pastadamus]

The problem (in my opinion) is that there are no "big left parties." Were I in Israel I would likely vote Meretz.

I would know very little of Israeli politics, but it seems to me that it is similar to European politics in that even the "right-wing" parties would be to the left of the Democratic Party here in the United States. I could be wrong but that is my general impression.

That said I am fully supportive of Israel no matter who wins the election.

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

I would know very little of Israeli politics, but it seems to me that it is similar to European politics in that even the "right-wing" parties would be to the left of the Democratic Party here in the United States. I could be wrong but that is my general impression.

It is an absurd view.

That said I am fully supportive of Israel no matter who wins the election.

Israel is not well served by political ignorance.

 

[Flankerl]

It is an absurd view.

Not really. US politics are far more conservative than in Europe. The glory of two-party rule. Both the Democratic Party like the Republican Party are by european standards conservative parties. Though the last one is more conservative than the other one.


But Israeli parties are different from the ones in Europe. Mainly thanks to haredim and settlers which make it more conservative and radical.


Oh and Ben-Ari wasnt elected into the Knesset. Good.

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

I would know very little of Israeli politics, but it seems to me that it is similar to European politics in that even the "right-wing" parties would be to the left of the Democratic Party here in the United States.

It is an absurd view.

Not really. US politics are far more conservative than in Europe.

One of us does not understand tha Pastadamus post which, as far as I can tell, asserts ...

• Israeli politics is similar to European politics.
• Even the "right-wing" Israeli/European parties would be to the left of the US Democratic Party.

Do you honestly believe that Germenis' Golden Dawn or Le Pen's National Front, or Wilders' Party of Freedom or Ben-Ari's Halhud HaLeumi or Bennet's HaBayit HaYehudi or Lieberman's Yisraell Beiteinu stand to the left of Obama and Biden and Pelosi and Reid and Wasserman Schultz? If so, you're truly functioning on the wrong side of the looking glass.

 

[Flankerl]

So you are saying that there are radical parties in Europe and Israel that are actually more conservative than the Democrats and Republicans?

Completely ignoring that there are other parties in those countries and those parties are far more in numbers.

 

[LuisDantas]

This is an interesting matter branching out of this thread. Opinions about these statements, please.

1. The US have historically been under a "de facto" two-party political system for a long time. While there are Independents and minority parties, they tend to get forgotten on the shuffle; most political matters end up being analysed under a somewhat artificial light of "Dem vs GOP" or "Left vs Right" despite obvious and constant signs that it is indeed an oversimplification at best.

2. Most anywhere else, there are far more than two political parties, and a careful attention is placed at the waxing and wanning of popularity of the minor ones, mostly because they are a fairly good indicator of political trends.

3. Also mostly anywhere else, both US Democrats and US Republicans would be considered definitely Right Wing, although there is a noticeable exacerbation among the Republicans. Even more extreme Far Right parties do exist in other countries, but they tend to be either tyrannies with an iron fist or minority groups that are given more attention for their desires than for their actual doings, and more for the changes in their numbers than for their numbers themselves.

 

[Caladan]

But Israeli parties are different from the ones in Europe. Mainly thanks to haredim and settlers which make it more conservative and radical.

Neither of these groups make the majority of Israeli political options. If we look at major European nations, their big parties aren't really classical left parties either, for example in the spirit of Israeli Meretz, and far right parties are definitely popular in Europe at the moment.
I don't think Europe is all roses. It seems that big political parties and governments in Europe are beating and expelling the Roma all across the continent. Nations like Spain built their form of separation walls. Islamic buildings, article of clothes, or even morning prayers are in danger of getting banned and in some cases have been banned.
The idea that the American or Israeli left is what would be considered right in Europe seems to be only a convenient idea. European nations go to needless extremes that Israel doesn't, and that is even without having been caught in a conflict as Israel does, and certainly without being located in a region such as the Middle East.

 

[Pastadamus]

One of us does not understand tha Pastadamus post which, as far as I can tell, asserts ...

• Israeli politics is similar to European politics.
• Even the "right-wing" Israeli/European parties would be to the left of the US Democratic Party.

Do you honestly believe that Germenis' Golden Dawn or Le Pen's National Front, or Wilders' Party of Freedom or Ben-Ari's Halhud HaLeumi or Bennet's HaBayit HaYehudi or Lieberman's Yisraell Beiteinu stand to the left of Obama and Biden and Pelosi and Reid and Wasserman Schultz? If so, you're truly functioning on the wrong side of the looking glass.

Golden Dawn is an exception to the rule, I would say. And let me state for the record I despise everything GD and the Front-Nationale stands for. Geert Wilders on the other hand actually isn't so bad as many of his policies are actually progressive (for example as far as I know, Wilders is pro-LGBT and pro-Israel).

That said, I probably could have worded my original post better: while nearly all parties in the US would be considered "right-wing" in Europe, and MOST "conservative" parties in Europe are "left-wing" by American standards, there are of course exceptions to the rule.

 

[Desert Snake]

That said, I probably could have worded my original post better: while nearly all parties in the US would be considered "right-wing" in Europe, and MOST "conservative" parties in Europe are "left-wing" by American standards, there are of course exceptions to the rule.

Israel isn't in Europe though.

 

[Flankerl]

Neither of these groups make the majority of Israeli political options.

Just to be clear i never said so. But its the same in europe.

If we look at major European nations, their big parties aren't really classical left parties either, for example in the spirit of Israeli Meretz, and far right parties are definitely popular in Europe at the moment.

Meh depends. Perhaps in France or Hungary but thats about it.

I don't think Europe is all roses. It seems that big political parties and governments in Europe are beating and expelling the Roma all across the continent.

Mostly because they dont follow EU law. They may be EU citizens but still need to get work and a read address in their new EU country. If they dont do this they are violating EU law.

Which has nothing against Roma because the same goes for any EU citizen. Like me.
If i were to move to Finland, not getting any work or even finding a home they could throw me out after a certain time.

Nations like Spain built their form of separation walls. Islamic buildings, article of clothes, or even morning prayers are in danger of getting banned and in some cases have been banned.

Islamic buildings? Everywhere there are more and more mosques.
Articles of clothes? So yeah you can wear a burqa in france. True dat. But then again you arent allowed to hide your face at all in france except if you are riding a motorcycle and wear an helmet. Its a matter of identification.

The idea that the American or Israeli left is what would be considered right in Europe seems to be only a convenient idea.

Never wrote that about Israel.
But the democratic party is more conservative than the french UMP, spanish PP, german CDU/CSU, danish K and so on.

European nations go to needless extremes that Israel doesn't, and that is even without having been caught in a conflict as Israel does, and certainly without being located in a region such as the Middle East.

Needless extremes? Not so sure what i'd vote if i were french and lived in Marseille. Probably not the UMP or PS.

 

[Desert Snake]

It seems to me from these election results that Yisrael is on the right track.

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

Golden Dawn is an exception to the rule, I would say.

Not to mention being no true Scotsman.

Geert Wilders on the other hand actually isn't so bad ...

Good grief ...

 

[F0uad]

Geert Wilders on the other hand actually isn't so bad as many of his policies are actually progressive (for example as far as I know, Wilders is pro-LGBT and pro-Israel).

Are you kidding me!? Serious!? I have lived in The Netherlands for over 22 Years and he is a danger to society btw he lost hes support a while ago. If it was for him i would never have completed my study and my family who lived there would have to pay a tax to wear a headscarf with hes fascist and childish ideas.

He is Pro-Israel because he lived and worked for Israel what clearly shows the Anti-Muslim/Arab sentiment that goes along with it. It looks to me that Israel's far right movements are simply trying to influence the rest of Europe.

He even tried to convince the Parliament to fire a Turkish Muslima (who didn't wear a headscarf) from the parliament simply because she is a Muslim..
Ever watched the video Fitna that is hes propaganda video made to scare the Dutch of Muslims.

 

[Caladan]

Meh depends. Perhaps in France or Hungary but thats about it.

It's much more than that. The Freedom Party in the Netherlands, the National Front in France, Jobbik party in Hungary, Golden Dawn in Greece, Danish People's party, in 2010 the Sweden Democrats entered the parliament.

Mostly because they dont follow EU law. They may be EU citizens but still need to get work and a read address in their new EU country. If they dont do this they are violating EU law.

Which has nothing against Roma because the same goes for any EU citizen. Like me.
If i were to move to Finland, not getting any work or even finding a home they could throw me out after a certain time.

I'm sorry, while I respect what you say, citing such reasons is no different than Israeli internal concerns cited concerning Arab minorities or Palestinian Arabs.
What I'm attempting to show here, is that Europe is involved in much the same grey area issues, and human rights violations as other places, and certainly does not transcend them. Major European nations still invade huge regions in Africa, North Africa, and the Middle East. They may have their reasons for doing that, but then again so do the US and Israel. Therefore I don't see how we can place the three parties in different boats and pretend that Europe is somehow above all the petty foreign and domestic affairs that Israel or the US are still involved in. Is it because of terrorism? internal securities? Well these are the exact same reasons Israel follows its own security measures.

Islamic buildings? Everywhere there are more and more mosques.

Switzerland has banned the construction of Islamic minarets.

Articles of clothes? So yeah you can wear a burqa in france. True dat. But then again you arent allowed to hide your face at all in france except if you are riding a motorcycle and wear an helmet. Its a matter of identification.

It's not as simple as that. Many of the European officials behind the Burqa ban in places such as Belgium and France outright said that such clothings are alien to European culture. So while some do their best to present it as strictly a safety and identity issue, I find it curious that Israel with all its security measures has never banned the veil or the Burqa.

Never wrote that about Israel.
But the democratic party is more conservative than the french UMP, spanish PP, german CDU/CSU, danish K and so on.

In which ways in particular are American democrats more conservative than major parties in nations like France or Germany?

 

[Flankerl]

It's much more than that. The Freedom Party in the Netherlands, the National Front in France, Jobbik party in Hungary, Golden Dawn in Greece, Danish People's party, in 2010 the Sweden Democrats entered the parliament.

The Freedom party is declining.
The Front National is under control as long as france doesnt change back to proportional representation and most of france doesnt look like Toulouse or Marsaille.
The Jobbik Party? Meanwhile Fidesz is really dangerous.
Golden Dawn? Well its greece.
Sweden Democrats? We'll see at the next election. Just because they entered once doesnt mean they will stay.

I'm sorry, while I respect what you say, citing such reasons is no different than Israeli internal concerns cited concerning Arab minorities or Palestinian Arabs.
What I'm attempting to show here, is that Europe is involved in much the same grey area issues, and human rights violations as other places, and certainly does not transcend them. Major European nations still invade huge regions in Africa, North Africa, and the Middle East. They may have their reasons for doing that, but then again so do the US and Israel. Therefore I don't see how we can place the three parties in different boats and pretend that Europe is somehow above all the petty foreign and domestic affairs that Israel or the US are still involved in. Is it because of terrorism? internal securities? Well these are the exact same reasons Israel follows its own security measures.

Iam confused, where did i write that Europe is better than the US or Israel?

Switzerland has banned the construction of Islamic minarets.

Okay? So? The swiss are rather swiss. They dont like things that arent swiss.
People are still allowed to build mosques, temples......

It's not as simple as that. Many of the European officials behind the Burqa ban in places such as Belgium and France outright said that such clothings are alien to European culture. So while some do their best to present it as strictly a safety and identity issue, I find it curious that Israel with all its security measures has never banned the veil or the Burqa.

You may find it curious but why should a muslim woman be allowed to enter a bank fully covered while the average non-muslim cant enter any shop fully covered?

In which ways in particular are American democrats more conservative than major parties in nations like France or Germany?

Again like i wrote before: The democrats are far more like the conservative parties in Europe. And you shouldnt mention germany, because here the democrats would be more conservative than the CSU. And that says a lot.

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

The Freedom party is declining.
The Front National is under control as long as france doesnt change back to proportional representation and most of france doesnt look like Toulouse or Marsaille.
The Jobbik Party? Meanwhile Fidesz is really dangerous.
Golden Dawn? Well its greece.
Sweden Democrats? We'll see at the next election. Just because they entered once doesnt mean they will stay.

Well, then - never mind ...

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

An interesting new poll appears in today's Haaretz:

A new poll published by Maariv Friday morning shows that Likud-Yisrael Beitienu would drop to 28 Knesset seats if the election were to held today. The poll, conducted by the research institute Maagar Mochot found that Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party would see a 25% boost raising it to 24 seats, up from 19.

The poll, conducted Thursday, includes responses from 506 participants. According to the results of the poll, the Labor Party would drop to 11 Knesset seats, in contrast with the 15 it won during the January 22 election. Habayit Hayehudi would also grow, by one seat, to 13, and so would Shas to a total of 12.

The poll asked respondents whether Tzipi Livni joining Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition, and the portfolios her party gained as result, would have an influence on their vote if new a election were held. Eighty percent responded that Livni’s actions would not have an influence, 11% reported that it would have an influence, and they would vote for a more right-wing party, while 9% said it would influence them to vote for a more left-wing party.

The poll also indicated that Shaul Mofaz’s Kadima would not cross the electoral threshold in a new election. Meretz would gain one seat, for a total of seven. Livni’s Hatnuah would drop to five seats, while Balad would gain one more, totaling four. United Torah Judism (7), Hadash (4) and United Arab List – Ta’al (4) would all receive the same amount of seats. The poll’s margin of error is 4.5%.

A poll published Thursday by the television channel for the Knesset also shows significant gains for Lapid over Netanyahu in the period since the election. According to that poll, if the election was held today, Lapid would win 30 seats, and the joint Likud-Yisrael Beiteinu would receive 22, nine less than it received in the 19th Knesset.

Habayit Hayehudi would gain three more seats, Labor and Shas would drop by two, according to the poll, which was conducted by the Panels research institute, and had 510 respondents. The Panels poll also shows Meretz gaining another seat, while Livni’s party would drop to only four. Otzma Leyisrael would win three, after not crossing the threshold in the actual election, Kadima would hold its two seats. The three Arab parties would win a combined nine seats, two less than what they won.

While it's easy to read too much into such polls, the sense I'm left with is one of drift, cynicism, and polarization as Netanyahu maneuvers while running out of time.