Israeli elections

[Jayhawker Soule]

Polling results addressed in ynetnews:

A new poll published 11 days before the general elections, indicates that the rightist bloc's lead has narrowed slightly.

The survey, carried out by the Dahaf Institute, predicts Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud-Beiteinu ticket will secure 33 Knesset seats, down from 37 in last month's polling. There are forty-two Likud-Beiteinu members in the current Knesset, and the survey predicts it will be the largest faction, by a wide margin, in the next coalition.

However, the ruling party's main rivals from the Right and Left are gaining strength. The Dahaf poll shows Shelly Yachimovich's Labor Party winning 18 seats, up from 17 in last month's polling.

Labor is the largest party in the Left-Center bloc. Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid faction, which is also part of the bloc, is expected to win 11 seats, while Tzipi Livni's Hatnua lost three Knesset seats from a previous poll and would also win 11 seats if elections were held today. Yachimovich, Lapid and Livni's recent effort to form a united bloc against the Right failed.

According to the poll, Shaul Mofaz's Kadima party will win two Knesset seats. The leftist Meretz party rises to six seats, up from four in the last poll. The survey indicates that the Left-Center bloc will win a total of 45 Knesset seats in the January 22 elections, only four less than the rightist bloc. With the addition of the Arab parties (four mandates for Hadash and United Arab List-Ta'al; three for Balad), the Center-Left bloc against Netanyahu will win 56 seats, the poll predicts.

On the right side of the political spectrum, hard-liner Naftali Bennett's party continues to gain strength. According to the poll, Habayit Hayehudi will win 14 seats. Otzma LeYisrael, the most extreme rightist party in the current elections, will pass the threshold and receive two seats, according to the survey.

The polarization is worrisome and the continued rightward drift even more so. I would love to see Meretz surprise and Habayit Hayehudi underperform. Mostly, I would love to see Center-Left bloc function as a responsible bloc. (I would also love to win the lottery.)

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

From Haaretz:

10 reasons the polls could be wrong

1. ...
2. ...
3. Turnout – The 2009 elections had a relatively low turnout of 65 percent, and most polls predicted even less enthusiasm this time around. The polls were weighted accordingly, but the figures released by the Central Elections Committee so far seem to indicate a much higher turnout than expected. Polls that tried to analyze the wavering and stay-at-home voters showed that they were more left-leaning than the general public. If some of them do vote, it could change the overall picture.
4. The Israeli-Arab vote – Traditionally, Israeli Arabs have voted in smaller numbers than Jewish voters (only 52 percent in the last elections). If all of them voted, there would never be a right-wing government in Israel, but even if the Arab turnout is only similar to the Jewish one, that could boost the leftist bloc by at least three seats.
5. ...
6. ...
7. ...
8. ...
9. ...
10. ...

I find this very interesting. Perhaps tomorrow will hold some surprises.

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

Again from Haaretz:

LIVE BLOG

5.45 P.M. In unprecedented move, Latin Patricarch of Jerusalem Michel Sabbah urges Israeli Arabs to vote.

5.41 P.M. Yesh Atid sources say that Channel 10 pollsters informed them that they're set to be the second-largest party.

5.37 P.M. Labor MK Isaac Herzog: If voter turnout exceeds 70 percent, [Labor leader Shelly] Yacimovich will be the next prime minister.

5:33 P.M. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tells Haaretz that voter turnout in Likud strongholds in Israel are low, highlighting the growing fear within his party that it's heading for collapse. As the evening wears on, Netanyahu is continuing his efforts to awaken Likud voters across the country.

5.27 P.M. Likud is concerned with low turnout at the party's traditional bastions. "We're lucky if we get 31 seats," one party official said. ...

 

[F0uad]

If Latin Patricarch wants Arabs to vote for them he or she better encourages some policies that are in favor of them.

Since i am not familiar with Israeli parties and the political arena i have a question, what are the plans of the big left parties regarding Arabs and Palestine?

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

If Latin Patricarch wants Arabs to vote for them he or she better encourages some policies that are in favor of them.

Since i am not familiar with Israeli parties and the political arena i have a question, what are the plans of the big left parties regarding Arabs and Palestine?

The problem (in my opinion) is that there are no "big left parties." Were I in Israel I would likely vote Meretz.

 

[F0uad]

The problem (in my opinion) is that there are no "big left parties." Were I in Israel I would likely vote Meretz.

Ok and what policies is it holding towards Arabs who live in Israel and the Palestinian conflict? Is it willing to stop the illegal settlements so we can finally have a peaceful discussion that can go lead us somewhere?

Or are all the parties the same regarding these issue's?

 

[Tarheeler]

Netanyahu emerges weakened from Israeli elections - The Washington Post

Likud/Yisrael Beiteinu projected with 31 seats and Netanyahu retains PM, but Yesh Atid is projected to get at least 19 seats.

That could prove to be interesting.

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

That could prove to be interesting.

It complicates life for Netanyahu but offers little promise to progressives.

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

From ynetnews:

According to exit polls released by the three major television networks, the centrist Yesh Atid party won 18 Knesset seats in the elections and will be the second largest party in the Knesset.

Lapid said, "There is a possibility to create a true and fair Center that listens to the other, that remembers that we are together; not at the expense of one another, but together.

"I urge the senior members of the political system to form as broad a government as possible that would unite the moderate forces from the Left and Right, so that we will be able to bring about real change in the State of Israel," he said.

Another Netanyahu enabler. What a waste.

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

From Haaretz:

Could Peres opt for Yair Lapid to form Israel's next coalition?

Seventeen years after Netanyahu defeated him in the first direct election of a prime minister, Peres, now the president, will be an important partner in solving the riddle of Netanyahu’s political future.

Of such a pleasure − the power to determine Benjamin Netanyahu’s fate − Shimon Peres could only dream. Seventeen years after Netanyahu defeated him in the first direct election of a prime minister, Peres, now the president, will be an important partner in solving the riddle of Netanyahu’s political future.

If Netanyahu doesn’t remain prime minister, he also won’t − and may not even want to − remain head of the Likud party. His previous defeat, in 1999, caused him to go home voluntarily. This time it would be final, insofar as anything is final in Israeli politics, which frequently recycles its fallen heros.

But Peres won’t be free to decide whatever he pleases; he will be a slave to the numbers. A legal opinion drafted by the legal advisor to the President’s Residence leaves no room for doubt: The president can use his own judgment only if the various parties’ recommendations result in a tie. If 61 MKs recommend Netanyahu and 59 recommend someone else, Peres will have to task Netanyahu with forming the government.

This morning, before the final, official results are published, it is still possible that Netanyahu’s opponents will control 60 seats. But in order for them not to divide their votes, they must agree among themselves on whom to recommend for prime minister: Yair Lapid, Shelly Yacimovich, or perhaps both in rotation. They will then have to recruit the Arab parties to their side.

This is extremely unlikely, but the mere possibility of a Netanyahu defeat must be worth something - not much but something. (As you can perhaps tell, I'm feeling more vindictive than hopeful.)

 

[Flankerl]

I would be in favour of a Likud-Yesh Atid-HaBayit HaYehudi coalition.

Yeah with HaBayit HaYehudi. Why? Because no Shas.


Thats pretty much worth ANYTHING.

 

[LuisDantas]

Pretty arcane thread. Does anyone have some sort of primer to let us uninitiated get up to speed?

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

I would be in favour of a Likud-Yesh Atid-HaBayit HaYehudi coalition.

Israel's unashamed racist future; welcome Naftali Bennet.

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

Pretty arcane thread. Does anyone have some sort of primer to let us uninitiated get up to speed?

Did you consider doing a search on "Israeli election primer"?

See, for example, Israeli Election Primer - What You Should Know.​

 

[LuisDantas]

Did you consider doing a search on "Israeli election primer"?

See, for example, Israeli Election Primer - What You Should Know.​

Much as I like Google, actual human beings are often the best sources. Thanks!

 

[Flankerl]

Israel's unashamed racist future; welcome Naftali Bennet.

Still better than Shas.

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

Still better than Shas.

That's a bit like saying that the White Citizens Council is better than the Klan.

 

[Flankerl]

Not really but in a sense. But its still better to have HaBayit HaYehudi inside the government. They have quite a dislike for the haredim.

Which could mean that the haredim might have to...*gasp* work... in the future. A crackdown on them is good and long overdue.


On the other side i cant see a point for having Shas as part of the government.

 

[Levite]

I have so far resisted the temptation to say anything about the Israeli elections. Mostly because, much like the American elections, I think they were a lot of sound and fury, signifying nothing. Maybe Yesh Atid will do something positive. Maybe not. Maybe their presence and their demand to include Tzipi Livni instead of Yehadut Hatorah will manage to curb the Haredi power, with only Shas being part of the coalition. Or maybe not. And maybe Bayit Yehudi will gut whatever flickering hopes for a peaceful solution to The Situation that there might still be. Or maybe not. In the end, my guess is that little of real import is likely to happen, and if anything of real import does manage to occur despite all efforts to the contrary, it will be nothing good.


Much like America, Israel has no decent leadership options. The Right Wing are crazy wacked-out nationalists and religious fundamentalists. The Left Wing are weak-kneed, milquetoast, self-destructively appeasement-oriented sheeple. Such Center as there appears to be has no there there. And they're all crooked as a dog's hind leg. All in all, much like America, except with massive looming security issues and a much more acute chance of implosion by de facto theocracy.


I find it more than a little ironic that, Left, Right, or Center, what the Jewish State seems to really need is a little less politicized trappings of Jewish symbolism and a little more practiced Judaism-- shunning bribery and caring for the poor and the vulnerable (whatever their nationality, religion, or language) would be a good place to start, and machloket l'shem shamayim (religious pluralism) would be a good place to get to.

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

I have so far resisted the temptation to say anything about the Israeli elections. Mostly because, much like the American elections, I think they were a lot of sound and fury, signifying nothing. Maybe Yesh Atid will do something positive. Maybe not. Maybe their presence and their demand to include Tzipi Livni instead of Yehadut Hatorah will manage to curb the Haredi power, with only Shas being part of the coalition. Or maybe not. And maybe Bayit Yehudi will gut whatever flickering hopes for a peaceful solution to The Situation that there might still be. Or maybe not. In the end, my guess is that little of real import is likely to happen, and if anything of real import does manage to occur despite all efforts to the contrary, it will be nothing good.


Much like America, Israel has no decent leadership options. The Right Wing are crazy wacked-out nationalists and religious fundamentalists. The Left Wing are weak-kneed, milquetoast, self-destructively appeasement-oriented sheeple. Such Center as there appears to be has no there there. And they're all crooked as a dog's hind leg. All in all, much like America, except with massive looming security issues and a much more acute chance of implosion by de facto theocracy.


I find it more than a little ironic that, Left, Right, or Center, what the Jewish State seems to really need is a little less politicized trappings of Jewish symbolism and a little more practiced Judaism-- shunning bribery and caring for the poor and the vulnerable (whatever their nationality, religion, or language) would be a good place to start, and machloket l'shem shamayim (religious pluralism) would be a good place to get to.

"To be is to stand for." Voting for cynicism is against my Jewish values.

... shunning bribery and caring for the poor and the vulnerable (whatever their nationality, religion, or language) would be a good place to start, and machloket l'shem shamayim (religious pluralism) would be a good place to get to.

This is, in my opinion, entirely -- almost disturbingly -- backward, and I say this as a long time active supporter of IRAC, Neshot HaKotel, and such really fine rabbis as Miri Gold.