Everything is 50/50

[Unveiled Artist]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't everything we do have a 50/50 chance of getting the results we want compared to those we don't?

For example, if I had four playing cards, three of them are queens and one is an ace. Even though I am more likely to pick a queen, the chance that I would no matter how greater is still 50/50-I'll either get the right card or not.

Even though I know more than likely when I press create thread it's going to create a thread; however, if I take advantage of that high likelihood, then it could trip be up with an error message instead. If we see it as 50/50 (it could happen or it could not), then if it comes up with an error (or I pick an Ace) I wouldn't think much about it even if I wanted a Queen (or a succesful thread) to begin with.

Makes sense? If not, how?

 

[Nietzsche]

Because there is quite a bit between "pure success state" and "pure failure state".

 

[fantome profane]

Yes, you are wrong. This is called the fifty-fifty fallacy. Just because there are two possible outcomes does not mean that those two outcomes are equally likely.

It might rain today, or it might not rain today. Therefore there is a 50% chance of rain. You could put all the meteorologists out of business. It doesn't work that way.

 

[lovemuffin]

For example, if I had four playing cards, three of them are queens and one is an ace. Even though I am more likely to pick a queen, the chance that I would no matter how greater is still 50/50-I'll either get the right card or not.

this is also incorrect, partly because it entails a misunderstanding of how probability is defined. You can actually test this by doing trials and recording how often you pick a queen vs. an ace. By the most general definition of probability, the probability of picking a queen in any trial is the ratio of the number of times you pick a queen compared to the total number of trials, in the mathematical limit as the number of trials approaches infinity. But even with much smaller number of trials you will see that the probability approaches 75%.

 

[Unveiled Artist]

Just because there are two possible outcomes does not mean that those two outcomes are equally likely.

It's not "likely" but just 50/50 (can't think of the right word). "It's not likely that I will win the superball since the other teem has way more points me. However, there is a 50/50 chance I maybe wrong and my team wins) regardless of how many chances I make to win the game.

Understand?

 

[Quetzal]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't everything we do have a 50/50 chance of getting the results we want compared to those we don't?

Nope! I always get what I want!

 

[fantome profane]

It's not "likely" but just 50/50 (can't think of the right word). "It's not likely that I will win the superball since the other teem has way more points me. However, there is a 50/50 chance I maybe wrong and my team wins) regardless of how many chances I make to win the game.

Understand?

I understand. And you are wrong. I am sorry. Please don't assume that just because I am telling you that you are wrong that I don't understand.

What ever terminology you want to use, "likely", "odds", "probability" "chance". All means the same thing. Flip a coin and there is a either it will come up heads or it will not come up heads. There is a fifty percent chance it will come up heads. But roll a die, either it will come up 6 or it will not come up 6, but there is only a 1 in 6 chance it will come up 6. Pull a card from a deck, and either it will be the ace of spades, or it will not be the ace of spades, there is a 1 in 52 chance it will be the ace of spades. Your chances of winning the lottery are not 50/50.

 

[Unveiled Artist]

this is also incorrect, partly because it entails a misunderstanding of how probability is defined. You can actually test this by doing trials and recording how often you pick a queen vs. an ace. By the most general definition of probability, the probability of picking a queen in any trial is the ratio of the number of times you pick a queen compared to the total number of trials, in the mathematical limit as the number of trials approaches infinity. But even with much smaller number of trials you will see that the probability approaches 75%.

You lossed me. I don't see how it would be 75%. I guess a better way to say it is, even if it's 75% likely to be a Queen, there is still a 50/50 chance it could be a Ace.

The only time (unless there is a spirit) that both are 100 percent is if there are either no cards or all cards queen (or aces). Then we don't have a chance it could be right/50 or wrong/50.

 

[LuisDantas]

"50/50" is short form for "50 percent chance either way". It implies two mutually exclusive results and equal odds for either.

The situations you are describing are not 50/50, Most are dychotomies (situations with two possible values) with uneven probabilities.

Dychotomies, it must be noted, are a form of model for representing parts of reality. As models, they are simplified representations of reality, not necessarily accurate even for usual, everyday purposes.

In reality, while you usually get heads or tails when you flip a coin, you might miss the table and lose the coin instead. Or you might damage a card when choosing it. Or pass out before getting to choose.

Reality tends to be about as detailed as we dare to perceive it as being.

 

[Unveiled Artist]

I understand. And you are wrong. I am sorry. Please don't assume that just because I am telling you that you are wrong that I don't understand.

What ever terminology you want to use, "likely", "odds", "probability" "chance". All means the same thing. Flip a coin and there is a either it will come up heads or it will not come up heads. There is a fifty percent chance it will come up heads. But roll a die, either it will come up 6 or it will not come up 6, but there is only a 1 in 6 chance it will come up 6. Pull a card from a deck, and either it will be the ace of spades, or it will not be the ace of spades, there is a 1 in 52 chance it will be the ace of spades. Your chances of winning the lottery are not 50/50.

I think I understand. Let's use the lottery (I could be using the same terms in two different meanings)

Think of yes and no as 50/50. Either it is a yes or a no.

For example, what you said about the die. There is a 1 out of 6 chance I will get roll a 6 face up.

Regardless of the chances (1/6, 2/6), it either happens or it doesnt. Happens (50) doesn't (50).

This is my point:

Unless all the sides are sixes, there will always be a chance that one will be wrong no matter how high their chances of being right are.

 

[Unveiled Artist]

"50/50" is short form for "50 percent chance either way". It implies two mutually exclusive results and equal odds for either.

The situations you are describing are not 50/50, Most are dychotomies (situations with two possible values) with uneven probabilities.

Dychotomies, it must be noted, are a form of model for representing parts of reality. As models, they are simplified representations of reality, not necessarily accurate even for usual, everyday purposes.

In reality, while you usually get heads or tails when you flip a coin, you might miss the table and lose the coin instead. Or you might damage a card when choosing it. Or pass out before getting to choose.

Reality tends to be about as detailed as we dare to perceive it as being.

How would you term it given it's not refering to equal chances of getting something right but the equal chance in reality that something can happen one way or the other (without looking at the details)?

 

[fantome profane]

I think I understand. Let's use the lottery (I could be using the same terms in two different meanings)

Think of yes and no as 50/50. Either it is a yes or a no.

For example, what you said about the die. There is a 1 out of 6 chance I will get roll a 6 face up.

Regardless of the chances (1/6, 2/6), it either happens or it doesnt. Happens (50) doesn't (50).

This is my point:

Unless all the sides are sixes, there will always be a chance that one will be wrong no matter how high their chances of being right are.

Let's break this down

Either it is a yes or a no.

ok

For example, what you said about the die. There is a 1 out of 6 chance I will get roll a 6 face up.

right

Regardless of the chances (1/6, 2/6), it either happens or it doesnt.

right

Happens (50) doesn't (50).

wrong!

It would be correct to say

Happens (16.7) Doesn't (83.3)

The mistake you are making is assuming that because you frame the question so that there are two possibilities then the odds must be 50/50. And that is just wrong.

 

[LuisDantas]

I call it a dychotomy. Or more accurately, a dychotomic model.

In some contexts I might call it a flag or a toggle or even a binary value, indicating that the frame of reference works with values of "true/false", "on/off", "success/failure" or something similar.

An useful tool, as most computer programmers will easily acknowledge. But a tool for building models, representations of reality, not an attribute of reality in a general way.

 

[Unveiled Artist]

Let's break this down


ok

right

rightwrong!

It would be correct to say

Happens (16.7) Doesn't (83.3)

The mistake you are making is assuming that because you frame the question so that there are two possibilities then the odds must be 50/50. And that is just wrong.

Thank you! Like saying just because a pie is parted doesn't mean they are in equal parts?

 

[fantome profane]

Thank you! Like saying just because a pie is parted doesn't mean they are in equal parts?

right

 

[Orbit]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't everything we do have a 50/50 chance of getting the results we want compared to those we don't?

For example, if I had four playing cards, three of them are queens and one is an ace. Even though I am more likely to pick a queen, the chance that I would no matter how greater is still 50/50-I'll either get the right card or not.

Even though I know more than likely when I press create thread it's going to create a thread; however, if I take advantage of that high likelihood, then it could trip be up with an error message instead. If we see it as 50/50 (it could happen or it could not), then if it comes up with an error (or I pick an Ace) I wouldn't think much about it even if I wanted a Queen (or a succesful thread) to begin with.

Makes sense? If not, how?

Probabilty of getting an ace is 1 out of 4 or .25 aka 25%
Probability of getting a queen is 3 out of 4 or .75 aka 75%

 

[Shadow Wolf]

Regardless of the chances (1/6, 2/6), it either happens or it doesnt. Happens (50) doesn't (50).

This is my point:

If everything was 50/50, there would be no statistics classes and science would fail. Something may or may not happen, but drawing from a standard deck of cards the chances of drawing the two of diamonds is 1/52 that it will happen versus 51/52 that it won't happen. But if we are trying to draw a red card, the odds that it will happen are 26/52 and the odds it won't happen are 26/52, or 50/50 since there is an equal probability of both outcomes happening.

 

[Unveiled Artist]

If everything was 50/50, there would be no statistics classes and science would fail. Something may or may not happen, but drawing from a standard deck of cards the chances of drawing the two of diamonds is 1/52 that it will happen versus 51/52 that it won't happen. But if we are trying to draw a red card, the odds that it will happen are 26/52 and the odds it won't happen are 26/52, or 50/50 since there is an equal probability of both outcomes happening.

I was corrected. I was using the wrong wording and view to express what I mean.

Everything is either "it happens or it doesn't". I call it 50/50. In mathematics, statistics, etc would be wrong terms, but it's just how I always refer to things no matter the likelihood X would happen, there is always a flop side that Y would happen.

 

[George-ananda]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't everything we do have a 50/50 chance of getting the results we want compared to those we don't?

I'd like to think the lottery ticket I bought for the $900,000,000 prize has a 50/50 chance.

For example, if I had four playing cards, three of them are queens and one is an ace. Even though I am more likely to pick a queen, the chance that I would no matter how greater is still 50/50-I'll either get the right card or not.

I'm thinking 75/25 for a queen.

 

[Unveiled Artist]

I'd like to think the lottery ticket I bought for the $900,000,000 prize has a 50/50 chance.


I'm thinking 75/25 for a queen.

I usally use the term 50/50 to mean it's a "yes or no" not how high the chance of X is compared to Y.

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