Everyone else has given their thoughts and questions in regard to what's happening in Afghanistan right now, so I'll throw my hat in. Let's imagine the US or any other super power does nothing to stop the Taliban from taking control of the area. What do you see happening?
I imagine they'd begin to put in place ways to govern their area. They make laws (however harsh they may be), they eliminate their perceived opposition, and they gain complete control. Folks under their rule experience an oppressive existence under an extremist dictatorship. Christians, Hindus, Jews, and any other religious (or non-religious) groups of folks either convert to the Taliban's version of Islam, flee, or die.
Under their rule of law, things begin to stabilize. The rough edges are hammered out as smooth as can be hoped, and governmental systems take form. Influential people rise up in the political ranks, and they start to gather power within the country - enough power to utilize on their neighbors in the form of war if they wanted. It might even play out like something similar to Hezbollah taking control of Lebanon.
Now what?
Now that politicians have glommed onto power that they can lose, will they be so quick to wage wars that will risk their newfound power? Will they want to risk open war with their neighbors that have a far larger, more advanced, and well established military powers than theirs? What kind of damage could these people do to the USA? Can these people even do anything that's any real threat to anyone on an international scale?
It's one thing to be a small, mobile guerilla terrorist force that can evade attacks from large nations trying to stamp them out by hiding in caves and keeping a low profile. It's another thing entirely when land can be lost, assets can be destroyed, and their own people need to be managed and controlled - especially if not everyone is on board with the takeover. With value to be lost, they may not be so quick to squander what they have in senseless conflicts. Politics, people, and logistics on a grander scale are involved now, not just zealous fighting for the sake of idealized righteous indignation.
I imagine they'd begin to put in place ways to govern their area. They make laws (however harsh they may be), they eliminate their perceived opposition, and they gain complete control. Folks under their rule experience an oppressive existence under an extremist dictatorship. Christians, Hindus, Jews, and any other religious (or non-religious) groups of folks either convert to the Taliban's version of Islam, flee, or die.
Under their rule of law, things begin to stabilize. The rough edges are hammered out as smooth as can be hoped, and governmental systems take form. Influential people rise up in the political ranks, and they start to gather power within the country - enough power to utilize on their neighbors in the form of war if they wanted. It might even play out like something similar to Hezbollah taking control of Lebanon.
Now what?
Now that politicians have glommed onto power that they can lose, will they be so quick to wage wars that will risk their newfound power? Will they want to risk open war with their neighbors that have a far larger, more advanced, and well established military powers than theirs? What kind of damage could these people do to the USA? Can these people even do anything that's any real threat to anyone on an international scale?
It's one thing to be a small, mobile guerilla terrorist force that can evade attacks from large nations trying to stamp them out by hiding in caves and keeping a low profile. It's another thing entirely when land can be lost, assets can be destroyed, and their own people need to be managed and controlled - especially if not everyone is on board with the takeover. With value to be lost, they may not be so quick to squander what they have in senseless conflicts. Politics, people, and logistics on a grander scale are involved now, not just zealous fighting for the sake of idealized righteous indignation.