• Welcome to Religious Forums, a friendly forum to discuss all religions in a friendly surrounding.

    Your voice is missing! You will need to register to get access to the following site features:
    • Reply to discussions and create your own threads.
    • Our modern chat room. No add-ons or extensions required, just login and start chatting!
    • Access to private conversations with other members.

    We hope to see you as a part of our community soon!

Afghanistan: Now What?

lewisnotmiller

Grand Hat
Staff member
Premium Member
I don't think it's the involvement as much as it's duration. Obviously the mission parameters were changed by somebody that protracted the theater of operations for so long.

I think there has been a lack of clarity and consistency around the exit strategy all along.
Clearly, there is a need to change mission parameters based on changing situations, but I agree that the protracted nature of the operation didn't appear to match to a clear mission statement. Soldiers were effectively trying to hold the status quo (more like policemen) but the government spending and strategy didn't appear to match to this.

It was like there was an assumption that putting democratic structures in place, and throwing wads of cash at the military and certain other government institution was going to get the country on a stable footing, if only the military could keep things stable in the meantime. At some point it should have become clear that this simply wasn't an effective strategy, unless you're in there for the next hundred years, to institute generational change. Even then...meh...

That's not a dig at the military, btw. I feel they were given assignments which had no clear success measures. Which has happened to them before, also with poor conclusions.
 

sun rise

The world is on fire
Premium Member
There's a lot of news right now including one to me bizarre story. I mean WTF??? They took over and NOW they're talking wtih Karzai who wants to return? There's something truly odd about what's happening now. I sure don't understand it. He flees with millions of dollars presumably to enjoy retirement and now he's in talks to return?

Former Afghanistan president Karzai talks with Taliban about power transfer

A senior Taliban commander met a former Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, for talks on Wednesday, as the Taliban worked to establish a government in Afghanistan amid allegations of women and children being beaten and at least three protesters being shot dead.
...
“For now, I am in the Emirates so that bloodshed and chaos is stopped,” he said in a video message – his first appearance since leaving the capital on Sunday. He said he had “no intention” to remain in exile. “I am currently in talks to return to Afghanistan,” he said.
 

lewisnotmiller

Grand Hat
Staff member
Premium Member
There's a lot of news right now including one to me bizarre story. I mean WTF??? They took over and NOW they're talking wtih Karzai who wants to return? There's something truly odd about what's happening now. I sure don't understand it. He flees with millions of dollars presumably to enjoy retirement and now he's in talks to return?

Former Afghanistan president Karzai talks with Taliban about power transfer

A senior Taliban commander met a former Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, for talks on Wednesday, as the Taliban worked to establish a government in Afghanistan amid allegations of women and children being beaten and at least three protesters being shot dead.
...
“For now, I am in the Emirates so that bloodshed and chaos is stopped,” he said in a video message – his first appearance since leaving the capital on Sunday. He said he had “no intention” to remain in exile. “I am currently in talks to return to Afghanistan,” he said.

Meh...not so bizarre from a messaging standpoint. Whether he actually returns to Afghanistan is quite different to whether he suggests he'll return.
He's copped plenty of flack for deserting the sinking ship, so any thoughts that he may return could just be a way to quieten that noise.
 

Nimos

Well-Known Member
Everyone else has given their thoughts and questions in regard to what's happening in Afghanistan right now, so I'll throw my hat in. Let's imagine the US or any other super power does nothing to stop the Taliban from taking control of the area. What do you see happening?
What do you mean, if we imagine that the US and no other super power is going to stop Taliban? :) They already did, the US is on there way out and Russia and China is trying to make deals, befriend Taliban. So no one is going to stop them. What is happening now, is the answer to this question :D

What I think will happen is this:

Taliban as it is now are trying to appear "friendly" and to respect some of the things that the Afghanis have gotten used to, but mostly because they need to calm things down and get control, and also to appear "better" towards the rest of the world, while the heat is on them. I think they want to be seen as liberators and not the bad guys. So if they go all out crazy now, it would not be good and could force a military responds from the rest of the world, which I don't think they are interested in, I also don't think the Taliban are that many to be honest or all that well organized yet, they are in the process of doing that now. When they have full control and the worlds eyes are no longer focused on them.

I think we are going to hear about "missing" people, certain rules getting changed etc. I mean one thing people have to remember is, that a lot of the people support the religious law and are not interested in a lot of the changes. Probably also why we see the whole system collapse so fast, if people truly wanted something else and there were a huge backup in the public, I think we would see the military fight back. But when the captain and all the sailors, so to speak jump overboard the moment they can, because they apparently didn't buy it or wanted to risk anything. Obviously no one will stand up against Taliban.

I think people are hugely mistaken, if they think that all people in Afghanistan is against them, I think that is far from correct to be honest.

Also lets assume that Taliban allow a lot of these things, they may appear to weak for some, so in time there could be a religious conflict, if some comes along that are even more extreme. But guess time will tell.

Obviously just me guessing, but time will tell.
 

lewisnotmiller

Grand Hat
Staff member
Premium Member
I think people are hugely mistaken, if they think that all people in Afghanistan is against them, I think that is far from correct to be honest.

I think you're right. People commonly don't understand, or don't pay enough attention to the tribalism involved in all this, and how those ties impact on the conflict. They look only at the religious aspect. But the religious beliefs and the cohesion of the Taliban are both heavily informed by it's tribal affiliations.
 

sun rise

The world is on fire
Premium Member
Meh...not so bizarre from a messaging standpoint. Whether he actually returns to Afghanistan is quite different to whether he suggests he'll return.
He's copped plenty of flack for deserting the sinking ship, so any thoughts that he may return could just be a way to quieten that noise.

That's not typical. Usually the one deposed quietly moves to some resort and is not heard of again. You might be right, but it is a bit unusual.
 

oldbadger

Skanky Old Mongrel!
My prediction ....

Legitimacy and recognition will be formally granted for a dominant terrorist organization as a bona-fide and recognized government, ...................

That's how Israel got started....... Mates of mine experienced Israeli Terrorism after the War. The First Israeli leader had led terrorists, I believe.
 

oldbadger

Skanky Old Mongrel!
..................................
My concern would be around their ability to create a sustainable economy. And (to be fair) it hasn't proven easy for ANYONE to create a sustainable economy in Afghanistan. My assumption is the international aid, which has been largely propping the country up, is removed. .............

Afghanistan will probably receive international aid from Islamic countries.
But Russia is already supporting the new government with aid, or so I have read.
 

Mock Turtle

Oh my, did I say that!
Premium Member
If the Taliban remain in power and do take control of the whole country, with some minor issues, perhaps the best we can hope for is that they keep to their promises as to not allowing the country to foster terrorist groups, which I suspect might be difficult. If they suppress females as they are likely to do, then economically they will not advance and perhaps will just go back to being another country destined not to progress in ways that many other countries with large Muslim populations have. There's always a next time. :oops:
 

Harel13

Am Yisrael Chai
Staff member
Premium Member
He flees with millions of dollars presumably to enjoy retirement and now he's in talks to return?
You're mixing Karzai, whose term ended in 2014 (hence the the phrase "a former president") with Ghani, who was president until the takeover (he's the one who took millions).
 

lewisnotmiller

Grand Hat
Staff member
Premium Member
That's how Israel got started....... Mates of mine experienced Israeli Terrorism after the War. The First Israeli leader had led terrorists, I believe.

Nup...David Ben-Gurion actively spoke out against groups like Irgun, for mostly pragmatic reasons (he thought they'd provide the British with an excuse to exert greater direct control).

The 6th Israeli PM was a guy called Menachem Begin. He was former head of Irgun, from memory. Certainly pretty high up, anyway.
 

oldbadger

Skanky Old Mongrel!
Nup...David Ben-Gurion actively spoke out against groups like Irgun, for mostly pragmatic reasons (he thought they'd provide the British with an excuse to exert greater direct control).

The 6th Israeli PM was a guy called Menachem Begin. He was former head of Irgun, from memory. Certainly pretty high up, anyway.
Fair enough.
I stand corrected.
It was the sixth PM that had fought against our Brit soldiers.

I never can get this right. When our buddies are fighting behind the lines they're outstanding heroes. When the other side is fighting behind the lines, or lines, they're satan's fiends.

At this moment scores of thousands of Afghans are trying to get in to Kabul airport. We've all seen scenes of giant US aircraft trying to take off through crowds, and bodies falling from under these planes when in the air. US troops are firing warning shots to deter these invasions, and Taliban soldiers are reported to be whipping the crowds back. The press is having a field day with it's words about such scenes.

I really do bloody hate the idea of theocracies, but in this case a theocracy has won, and I don't think we'll have a clue about what's going to happen there for weeks, or even months.

I remember what the World thought about the Vietcong after its victory..... and now Vietnam is quite a tourist destination, or so I hear. Even China! My neighbours have just been to the Great Wall... moaned about the lack of toilets on it!
 

Twilight Hue

Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
It seems this is just going to be handed over for the next generation to worry about.

Just remember that a terrorist organization might be givin legitimacy and allowed to grow and flourish on its own.

I can't think of something any more dangerous than that.
 

Kooky

Freedom from Sanity
I think you're right. People commonly don't understand, or don't pay enough attention to the tribalism involved in all this, and how those ties impact on the conflict. They look only at the religious aspect. But the religious beliefs and the cohesion of the Taliban are both heavily informed by it's tribal affiliations.
In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if one could draw a direct line from the ethnic massacres against Pashtuns in the Southern provinces at the hands of NATO-affiliated warlords, to the resurgence of the Taliban; the Taliban have always had their strongest support among Pashtuns on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistani border, after all.
 

Wandering Monk

Well-Known Member
Now what? How about the US re-evaluate its role in the world. Before we EVER engage in another military operation, these questions MUST be answered and then the plan adhered to.

The Powell Doctrine states that a list of questions all have to be answered affirmatively before military action is taken by the United States:

  1. Is a vital national security interest threatened?
  2. Do we have a clear attainable objective?
  3. Have the risks and costs been fully and frankly analyzed?
  4. Have all other non-violent policy means been fully exhausted?
  5. Is there a plausible exit strategy to avoid endless entanglement?
  6. Have the consequences of our action been fully considered?
  7. Is the action supported by the American people?
  8. Do we have genuine broad international support?[2]

Powell Doctrine - Wikipedia
 

England my lionheart

Rockerjahili Rebel
Premium Member
The exit strategy wasn’t much of a strategy at all but saying that the Afghan people have had 20 years to prepare for that,I think people also forget Pakistan’s involvement in the last 20 years and Saudi Arabia,pakistan allowing the Taliban in and out with supplies and Saudi Arabia funding the seminaries where the Taliban aka students became deobandi a very puritanical sect.

so the heady days of “Afghan star” which I enjoyed watching are gone,what next?,we’ll see,the only way Afghanistan can change now is from within,no amount of military action can change it unless you can close the Pakistan back door,ironic that Pakistan has closed that door to refugees but one would expect that from them.
 
Top