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Afghanistan: Now What?

SigurdReginson

Grēne Mann
Premium Member
Everyone else has given their thoughts and questions in regard to what's happening in Afghanistan right now, so I'll throw my hat in. Let's imagine the US or any other super power does nothing to stop the Taliban from taking control of the area. What do you see happening?

I imagine they'd begin to put in place ways to govern their area. They make laws (however harsh they may be), they eliminate their perceived opposition, and they gain complete control. Folks under their rule experience an oppressive existence under an extremist dictatorship. Christians, Hindus, Jews, and any other religious (or non-religious) groups of folks either convert to the Taliban's version of Islam, flee, or die.

Under their rule of law, things begin to stabilize. The rough edges are hammered out as smooth as can be hoped, and governmental systems take form. Influential people rise up in the political ranks, and they start to gather power within the country - enough power to utilize on their neighbors in the form of war if they wanted. It might even play out like something similar to Hezbollah taking control of Lebanon.

Now what?

Now that politicians have glommed onto power that they can lose, will they be so quick to wage wars that will risk their newfound power? Will they want to risk open war with their neighbors that have a far larger, more advanced, and well established military powers than theirs? What kind of damage could these people do to the USA? Can these people even do anything that's any real threat to anyone on an international scale?

It's one thing to be a small, mobile guerilla terrorist force that can evade attacks from large nations trying to stamp them out by hiding in caves and keeping a low profile. It's another thing entirely when land can be lost, assets can be destroyed, and their own people need to be managed and controlled - especially if not everyone is on board with the takeover. With value to be lost, they may not be so quick to squander what they have in senseless conflicts. Politics, people, and logistics on a grander scale are involved now, not just zealous fighting for the sake of idealized righteous indignation.
 

Twilight Hue

Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
I can't believe they are riding around in US tax payed military equipment knocking the snot out of people fleeing to the airport.

Biden and his puppeteers are complete morons and stupid idiots unrivaled in their expertise of said terms.
 

Brickjectivity

Turned to Stone. Now I stretch daily.
Staff member
Premium Member
Now what?
Now the world continues to awaken and realize that wars are a global, existential, extinction level threat? Starting one may seem like a good idea but isn't. What happened in Afghanistan? How did we get militarily involved? These things will be asked by school children.
 

Twilight Hue

Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
Now the world continues to awaken and realize that wars are a global, existential, extinction level threat? Starting one may seem like a good idea but isn't. What happened in Afghanistan? How did we get militarily involved? These things will be asked by school children.
I don't think it's the involvement as much as it's duration. Obviously the mission parameters were changed by somebody that protracted the theater of operations for so long.
 

SigurdReginson

Grēne Mann
Premium Member
I can't believe they are riding around in US tax payed military equipment knocking the snot out of people fleeing to the airport.

Biden and his puppeteers are complete morons and stupid idiots unrivaled in their expertise of said terms.

Agreed that Biden along with all the other people who contributed to the mess handled it like jackasses, but that doesn't really address the point of this thread. So again I ask, now what? What do you think will happen?
 

Brickjectivity

Turned to Stone. Now I stretch daily.
Staff member
Premium Member
I don't think it's the involvement as much as it's duration. Obviously the mission parameters were changed by somebody.
Yes, I somewhat agree. I watched the film Charlie's War., which is a dramatic film based upon real events. If its accurate then we initially had ethical reasons to become involved, however that initial interaction opened the door to many years of unconstitutional warfare. I've worked with people who fought in that country, and they do not have good memories of the experience. They're hurt, and that's not Ok. I know someone who's friend was killed by a bomb, too, with them in the same vehicle. Why must a soldier only hope and not be confident that they are fighting for a worthy cause? On balance and in hindsight we, USA, would have been better off had we ignored Bin Laden completely, because of all the extra years we kept sending soldiers overseas. There were other ways to handle it.
 

sun rise

The world is on fire
Premium Member
What do you think will happen?

I heard part of a discussion on money this afternoon. We should not underestimate the financial impact on what happens next.

We propped up the Afghan government and economy with large quantities of money quite of bit of that was badly used due to corruption. That stopped.

The Taliban of course taxed everything in site including our aid that entered their zone of control, drugs, sheep but that's not enough to run the country.

They got money not only from us but from Pakistan, the Gulf states (our "friends") but that's not enough.

This is a similar story to what I heard on the radio:

Therefore, my base case would be the following:
- Treasury freezes assets
- Taliban have to implement capital controls and limit dollar access
- Currency will depreciate
- Inflation will rise as currency pass through is very high
- This will hurt the poor as food prices increase

— Ajmal Ahmady (@aahmady) August 18, 2021


Afghanistan's economy is already fragile and depends heavily on international aid - much of which is under a cloud of uncertainty. There's also little in the way of foreign business investment due to high levels of corruption.

Taliban will not be able to access most Afghan central bank assets
 

Vinayaka

devotee
Premium Member
Everyone else has given their thoughts and questions in regard to what's happening in Afghanistan right now, so I'll throw my hat in. Let's imagine the US or any other super power does nothing to stop the Taliban from taking control of the area. What do you see happening?

I imagine they'd begin to put in place ways to govern their area. They make laws (however harsh they may be), they eliminate their perceived opposition, and they gain complete control. Folks under their rule experience an oppressive existence under an extremist dictatorship. Christians, Hindus, Jews, and any other religious (or non-religious) groups of folks either convert to the Taliban's version of Islam, flee, or die.

Under their rule of law, things begin to stabilize. The rough edges are hammered out as smooth as can be hoped, and governmental systems take form. Influential people rise up in the political ranks, and they start to gather power within the country - enough power to utilize on their neighbors in the form of war if they wanted. It might even play out like something similar to Hezbollah taking control of Lebanon.

Now what?

Now that politicians have glommed onto power that they can lose, will they be so quick to wage wars that will risk their newfound power? Will they want to risk open war with their neighbors that have a far larger, more advanced, and well established military powers than theirs? What kind of damage could these people do to the USA? Can these people even do anything that's any real threat to anyone on an international scale?

It's one thing to be a small, mobile guerilla terrorist force that can evade attacks from large nations trying to stamp them out by hiding in caves and keeping a low profile. It's another thing entirely when land can be lost, assets can be destroyed, and their own people need to be managed and controlled - especially if not everyone is on board with the takeover. With value to be lost, they may not be so quick to squander what they have in senseless conflicts. Politics, people, and logistics on a grander scale are involved now, not just zealous fighting for the sake of idealized righteous indignation.

Time will tell. I'm hoping other strategies are employed, besides going in guns a-blazing. If the Taliban does try expansion, I'm guessing they'll pick the weakest country that borders them. Within about 6 months, the eyes of the world will most likely find somewhere else to look.
 

sun rise

The world is on fire
Premium Member
I found the transcript of the story I referred to in my last post in this thread. It looks like they are going to have a very hard choice - seek to prove to the West that they won't be brutal and repressive in order to unlock the cash or be in deep financial doo-doo and perhaps have a counter-insurgency start with many unemployed soldiers part of the mix (See "Northern Alliance" that existed before 9/11).

Can the Taliban make the ledgers work to govern?

The Taliban is effective in delivering order. It can be a brutal order, but it has knowledge and capacity to stop crime. But, for delivering school, it will need to rely on teachers who will need to be able to be paid by someone. And much of this financial capability will go radically down. Most significantly, the United States is likely not going to be paying for $2 billion for the Afghan security forces, as it has been before the Taliban takeover. So, that means that some number of soldiers, say 100,000 soldiers will now be unemployed and unpaid. The Taliban will need to be paying its own fighters. So, clearly, how the Taliban negotiates with international actors will be critical, whether it can sustain the economy as it existed or whether the economy will rapidly go bankrupt and banditry, frustration, protests will start emerging.
 

Twilight Hue

Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
Agreed that Biden along with all the other people who contributed to the mess handled it like jackasses, but that doesn't really address the point of this thread. So again I ask, now what? What do you think will happen?
Probably what I'm most afraid of knowing the present political climate today.

My prediction ....

Legitimacy and recognition will be formally granted for a dominant terrorist organization as a bona-fide and recognized government, putting yet another dangerous player on the world stage, allowed to grow in its power and strength each decade that passes.


My hope......

A massive counter attack will soon commence eliminating the new Taliban government entirely, and the re- establishment of a permanent US / NATO presence much like we did with our enemies after ww2 to make sure they will never be a threat to the free world again.
 

Nakosis

Non-Binary Physicalist
Premium Member
Everyone else has given their thoughts and questions in regard to what's happening in Afghanistan right now, so I'll throw my hat in. Let's imagine the US or any other super power does nothing to stop the Taliban from taking control of the area. What do you see happening?

I imagine they'd begin to put in place ways to govern their area. They make laws (however harsh they may be), they eliminate their perceived opposition, and they gain complete control. Folks under their rule experience an oppressive existence under an extremist dictatorship. Christians, Hindus, Jews, and any other religious (or non-religious) groups of folks either convert to the Taliban's version of Islam, flee, or die.

Under their rule of law, things begin to stabilize. The rough edges are hammered out as smooth as can be hoped, and governmental systems take form. Influential people rise up in the political ranks, and they start to gather power within the country - enough power to utilize on their neighbors in the form of war if they wanted. It might even play out like something similar to Hezbollah taking control of Lebanon.

Now what?

Now that politicians have glommed onto power that they can lose, will they be so quick to wage wars that will risk their newfound power? Will they want to risk open war with their neighbors that have a far larger, more advanced, and well established military powers than theirs? What kind of damage could these people do to the USA? Can these people even do anything that's any real threat to anyone on an international scale?

It's one thing to be a small, mobile guerilla terrorist force that can evade attacks from large nations trying to stamp them out by hiding in caves and keeping a low profile. It's another thing entirely when land can be lost, assets can be destroyed, and their own people need to be managed and controlled - especially if not everyone is on board with the takeover. With value to be lost, they may not be so quick to squander what they have in senseless conflicts. Politics, people, and logistics on a grander scale are involved now, not just zealous fighting for the sake of idealized righteous indignation.

I'm hoping the UN will be willing to take action.
Afghanistan: ‘Now is the time to stand as one’, UN chief tells Security Council
 

SigurdReginson

Grēne Mann
Premium Member
We need to go back in and kill the Taliban.

Ugh... Can we just stop?

The Taliban is reprehensible, but this whole world police thing is just getting out of hand. It's not our job. When it comes to the world stage, we are outpacing China and Russia in how badly our meddling in other nation's affairs and leaving them for worse. Haven't we done enough?

What if something worse rises up than the Taliban? ISIS already showed us what that looks like, and how that happens.
 

Brickjectivity

Turned to Stone. Now I stretch daily.
Staff member
Premium Member
We need to go back in and kill the Taliban.
That would be unconstitutional and lead to more unconstitutional behavior, more death, more everything. You could go though, hire yourself a team and risk your life. :D Have fun. Be heroic, and remember you're doing the right thing. Go Twilight Hue!
 

amorphous_constellation

Well-Known Member
I heard part of a discussion on money this afternoon. We should not underestimate the financial impact on what happens next.

Well, if you throw sugar onto salt, and stop throwing the sugar, you still have a lot of salt. Would this happen with alaska, or hawaii, probably not. They would just be poor, like stale bread. Stop dealing with salt, and although it may take longer , the salt may eventually cake and calcify.
 

lewisnotmiller

Grand Hat
Staff member
Premium Member
Everyone else has given their thoughts and questions in regard to what's happening in Afghanistan right now, so I'll throw my hat in. Let's imagine the US or any other super power does nothing to stop the Taliban from taking control of the area. What do you see happening?

I imagine they'd begin to put in place ways to govern their area. They make laws (however harsh they may be), they eliminate their perceived opposition, and they gain complete control. Folks under their rule experience an oppressive existence under an extremist dictatorship. Christians, Hindus, Jews, and any other religious (or non-religious) groups of folks either convert to the Taliban's version of Islam, flee, or die.

Under their rule of law, things begin to stabilize. The rough edges are hammered out as smooth as can be hoped, and governmental systems take form. Influential people rise up in the political ranks, and they start to gather power within the country - enough power to utilize on their neighbors in the form of war if they wanted. It might even play out like something similar to Hezbollah taking control of Lebanon.

Now what?

Now that politicians have glommed onto power that they can lose, will they be so quick to wage wars that will risk their newfound power? Will they want to risk open war with their neighbors that have a far larger, more advanced, and well established military powers than theirs? What kind of damage could these people do to the USA? Can these people even do anything that's any real threat to anyone on an international scale?

It's one thing to be a small, mobile guerilla terrorist force that can evade attacks from large nations trying to stamp them out by hiding in caves and keeping a low profile. It's another thing entirely when land can be lost, assets can be destroyed, and their own people need to be managed and controlled - especially if not everyone is on board with the takeover. With value to be lost, they may not be so quick to squander what they have in senseless conflicts. Politics, people, and logistics on a grander scale are involved now, not just zealous fighting for the sake of idealized righteous indignation.

It's not a matter of assessing their willingness and capacity to wage new wars, etc. Honestly, I'd be stunned if the Taliban tried to expand outside the borders of Afghanistan in any meaningful way (notwithstanding the potential for border issues).

My concern would be around their ability to create a sustainable economy. And (to be fair) it hasn't proven easy for ANYONE to create a sustainable economy in Afghanistan. My assumption is the international aid, which has been largely propping the country up, is removed. There are high levels of unemployment and economic hardship. Even with the best of intentions (and to be clear, I see no reason to attribute this to the Taliban, but let's roll with it) they are facing a massively difficult task to turn the country into something stable.

So, the risk to my mind isn't so much what an organised Taliban will do internationally. It's more what a chaotic Afghanistan means in terms of being a safe haven for other groups, radicals, etc.

The original rise of the Taliban was in response to massively high levels of crime and corruption. Power vacuums have a way of creating things to fill them.
 

lewisnotmiller

Grand Hat
Staff member
Premium Member
I found the transcript of the story I referred to in my last post in this thread. It looks like they are going to have a very hard choice - seek to prove to the West that they won't be brutal and repressive in order to unlock the cash or be in deep financial doo-doo and perhaps have a counter-insurgency start with many unemployed soldiers part of the mix (See "Northern Alliance" that existed before 9/11).

Can the Taliban make the ledgers work to govern?

The Taliban is effective in delivering order. It can be a brutal order, but it has knowledge and capacity to stop crime. But, for delivering school, it will need to rely on teachers who will need to be able to be paid by someone. And much of this financial capability will go radically down. Most significantly, the United States is likely not going to be paying for $2 billion for the Afghan security forces, as it has been before the Taliban takeover. So, that means that some number of soldiers, say 100,000 soldiers will now be unemployed and unpaid. The Taliban will need to be paying its own fighters. So, clearly, how the Taliban negotiates with international actors will be critical, whether it can sustain the economy as it existed or whether the economy will rapidly go bankrupt and banditry, frustration, protests will start emerging.

Good post.
 
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