Guitar's Cry
Disciple of Pan
My mistake.
A modification of my point still stands. This report and the one about citizens is using different standards thus are not comparable. An arrest and apprehension is different from having a criminal record itself. The former is part of a criminal record but not the sole determination nor criteria of the criminal record. One can be detained (different from an arrest and apprehension) which is added to a criminal record. An arrest comes with formal charges of a crime. An apprehension is based on warrants.To include records that go beyond the 2 in the government report is misleading.
The citizen study includes factors not in the report linked in Fox (it's a pfd). The study was self-reporting in part thus not a database study itself. There is no valid comparison to be made when the standards are different.
As per the Fox source the link goes to How Many Americans Have a Police Record? Probably More Than You Think
"A weakness of the study was that it projected what would happen in the future based on the assumption that conditions in 1965 would remain constant. In fact, much has changed.
“They didn’t arrest for drugs then,” Dr. Blumstein said. “DUI was a traffic offense. They didn’t arrest for domestic violence.”
A survey with flaws
"While Dr. Christensen’s work projected the chance of arrest over a lifetime, Dr. Brame and his colleagues documented what had already happened. They found that by age 23, approximately 30% of the survey participants had been arrested or taken into police custody for a non-traffic offense. The results were published in the journal Pediatrics.
But their study also had weaknesses: Some of the survey sample dropped out or never participated and, as with Dr. Christensen’s work, conditions that were present when the group was selected may no longer apply."
Arbitrarily cuts out 1/3
"The most recent report recorded more than 100 million arrest records, according to Becki R. Goggins, director of law and policy for the consortium, who notes the data include records for offenders who are deceased as well as multiple records for individuals who have been arrested in more than one state.
To account for these discrepancies, which could result in an overcount of the number of people with an arrest record, NELP subtracts about a third of the cases.
“We say 70 million,” said Maurice Emsellem, director of the Access and Opportunity Program at the NELP, an estimate that also works out to around 1 in 3 adults."
US Law. An apprehension requires a warrant for aliens
8 U.S. Code § 1226 - Apprehension and detention of aliens
One source from WSJ
https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/early/2011/12/14/peds.2010-3710
"METHODS: Self-reported arrest history data (excluding arrests for minor traffic violations) from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (N = 7335) were examined from 1997 to 2008.
Another source https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/42.pdf
It does not cite the study with the 40% so there is nothing to verify. PDF page 251 book page 247
Fox is creating outrage media banking on people not looking at the methods. The counter-point about citizens is someone just using Google without reading anything they link. Especially when the source is behind a paywall not everyone can read.
My only question is if you have a subscription to WSJ. Do you?
I do not. Tried clicking on the WSJ link but stopped by the paywall.
I would be willing to bet that factoring out income levels and accounting for discrimination, it is likely that the criminal tendencies of immigrant populations in the US either are close to or less than that of the normal population. That's an educated guess given that data show no or reduced crime in populations with immigrants.