joe1776
Well-Known Member
Franklin Roosevelt used brain trusts to advise him during his administration. After WW2, one of those brain trusts became the Rand Corporation which still advises the government for a fee. This idea was inspired by FDR's brain trusts.
The primary problem:
Human societies are cooperative endeavors which must be governed. Governing involves two phases: planning and implementation. Both phases involve decision-making. And, while some are better than others, all the governments of the world can be described as inefficient decision making systems.
The secondary problem: Once a government gains power, it's hard to change of remove it. Violent overthrows have been the most common method. However, that is a high price to pay when there is uncertainly about the efficiency of a replacement system.
The global advisory panels model is a promising, possible solution for both problems.
Online experts discuss, debate and vote to advise the governments of the world. This model can be built and tested online without the support of existing governments. If, over time, the nations that follow the advice fare better than those that do not, the influence of the advisory panels will increase over time and eventually render the existing governing models obsolete.
Why do the current governments fail?
Efficient government decision-making involves selecting decision-makers based on three main factors:
1. Maximizing the inherited intelligence of the decision-makers.
2. Maximizing the relevant experience of the decision-makers.
3. Minimizing the relevant bias of the decision-makers.
The current governments of the world, democracies mostly, using elections and appointments to select decision-makers, are weak on all three factors.
The basic structure of the expert panel model can be demonstrated in an elementary school classroom. Imagine a class of 33 very bright third-grade students being tested on long division. Instead of grading them individually, they will be voting as a panel on the correct answers. On any test where the correct answers are certain, as they are in Math, the answers given by the class's majority will, almost surely, result in a perfect score.
From the classroom to the Internet: A panel of 33 very intelligent experts on any issue will make decisions after an online, written discussion-debate session. These experts might live anywhere in the world if they have Internet access. Even though the correct answers, unlike math problems, will be unknown, we can be confident that the decisions of the expert panel's majority will be the best answer based on the evidence currently available. We can also expert panels to advise on a way to test their advised plan before full implementation. Anyone with Internet access will be able to follow the discussion.
Maximum intelligence: The expert panel process would maximize the inherited intelligence of the decision-makers by choosing panel members from a list of the highest scorers on a well-accepted, standard test of intelligence.
Maximum experience: The panels would maximize relevant experience by assuring that the candidates are qualified in training and experience. For example, 33 experts on food safety would advise governments on food safety policy. 33 experts on the climate would advise governments on climate policy.
Minimum bias: Bias is the arch enemy of truth and justice. Elections and appointments of decision-makers in current governments almost guarantee partisan biases that will hinder progress. In the expert panel model, bias will be minimized mainly in two ways:
1. Expert panelists will be selected randomly by computer from a list of qualified candidates. This avoids the biases inherent in elections and appointments. For example, in existing governments, corporations and wealthy people can use their money to influence election campaigns. That won't be a problem for the online expert panels.
2. The panels will not have leaders. The historical evidence is persuasive that, even when they mean well, individuals who are very ambitious for the power to lead are likely to abuse the power if they attain it. Abuses of power are biases in the decision process. No individual on the expert panels will have more influence over the decision than any other.
The executive panel: Only the top-ranked executive panel, with its members being among the highest tested on intelligence, will have no specific expertise. They will be charged with the responsibility of seeing the Big Picture. After organizing itself, the executive panel will create sub-panels organized into a hierarchy. It will probably choose to guide those sub-panels using simple mission statements.
The primary problem:
Human societies are cooperative endeavors which must be governed. Governing involves two phases: planning and implementation. Both phases involve decision-making. And, while some are better than others, all the governments of the world can be described as inefficient decision making systems.
The secondary problem: Once a government gains power, it's hard to change of remove it. Violent overthrows have been the most common method. However, that is a high price to pay when there is uncertainly about the efficiency of a replacement system.
The global advisory panels model is a promising, possible solution for both problems.
Online experts discuss, debate and vote to advise the governments of the world. This model can be built and tested online without the support of existing governments. If, over time, the nations that follow the advice fare better than those that do not, the influence of the advisory panels will increase over time and eventually render the existing governing models obsolete.
Why do the current governments fail?
Efficient government decision-making involves selecting decision-makers based on three main factors:
1. Maximizing the inherited intelligence of the decision-makers.
2. Maximizing the relevant experience of the decision-makers.
3. Minimizing the relevant bias of the decision-makers.
The current governments of the world, democracies mostly, using elections and appointments to select decision-makers, are weak on all three factors.
The basic structure of the expert panel model can be demonstrated in an elementary school classroom. Imagine a class of 33 very bright third-grade students being tested on long division. Instead of grading them individually, they will be voting as a panel on the correct answers. On any test where the correct answers are certain, as they are in Math, the answers given by the class's majority will, almost surely, result in a perfect score.
From the classroom to the Internet: A panel of 33 very intelligent experts on any issue will make decisions after an online, written discussion-debate session. These experts might live anywhere in the world if they have Internet access. Even though the correct answers, unlike math problems, will be unknown, we can be confident that the decisions of the expert panel's majority will be the best answer based on the evidence currently available. We can also expert panels to advise on a way to test their advised plan before full implementation. Anyone with Internet access will be able to follow the discussion.
Maximum intelligence: The expert panel process would maximize the inherited intelligence of the decision-makers by choosing panel members from a list of the highest scorers on a well-accepted, standard test of intelligence.
Maximum experience: The panels would maximize relevant experience by assuring that the candidates are qualified in training and experience. For example, 33 experts on food safety would advise governments on food safety policy. 33 experts on the climate would advise governments on climate policy.
Minimum bias: Bias is the arch enemy of truth and justice. Elections and appointments of decision-makers in current governments almost guarantee partisan biases that will hinder progress. In the expert panel model, bias will be minimized mainly in two ways:
1. Expert panelists will be selected randomly by computer from a list of qualified candidates. This avoids the biases inherent in elections and appointments. For example, in existing governments, corporations and wealthy people can use their money to influence election campaigns. That won't be a problem for the online expert panels.
2. The panels will not have leaders. The historical evidence is persuasive that, even when they mean well, individuals who are very ambitious for the power to lead are likely to abuse the power if they attain it. Abuses of power are biases in the decision process. No individual on the expert panels will have more influence over the decision than any other.
The executive panel: Only the top-ranked executive panel, with its members being among the highest tested on intelligence, will have no specific expertise. They will be charged with the responsibility of seeing the Big Picture. After organizing itself, the executive panel will create sub-panels organized into a hierarchy. It will probably choose to guide those sub-panels using simple mission statements.
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