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The Problem Of Bad Facts About Guns

Evangelicalhumanist

"Truth" isn't a thing...
Premium Member
Just now on NPR, I heard the talking heads talk about how
the expiration in 2004 of Clinton's "Assault Weapon Ban" (1994)
resulted in increased school shootings. (NPR has long been in
the vanguard of pushing gun ban propaganda.)
Federal Assault Weapons Ban - Wikipedia

There are a couple non-factual assumptions here.
1) The ban didn't affect any assault weapons (which are
select fire, ie, capable of semi or full auto operation).
It was limited to covering only semi auto guns.
2) The ban didn't ban any look-alikes that already existed.
They were just as easy & legal to own as before.
3) The ban imposed only insignificant regulations on
guns manufactured after Sept 13, 1994.
4) Manufacturers ramped up production greatly before
this date to meet the newly increased demand.
5) There's no evidence that the 1994 law had any
significant effect on crime.
Federal Assault Weapons Ban - Wikipedia

This thread is not for arguing about what should or shouldn't be done.
It's about giving factoids the boot, & dealing with actual facts.

But figuring what to do should be based upon solid info.
Okay, agreed. Bad facts don't necessarily lead to good conclusions. But here are some other facts, from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health (these are the brief outlines of a number of papers):

Homicide


1. Where there are more guns there is more homicide (literature review)

Our review of the academic literature found that a broad array of evidence indicates that gun availability is a risk factor for homicide, both in the United States and across high-income countries. Case-control studies, ecological time-series and cross-sectional studies indicate that in homes, cities, states and regions in the U.S., where there are more guns, both men and women are at a higher risk for homicide, particularly firearm homicide.

Hepburn, Lisa; Hemenway, David. Firearm availability and homicide: A review of the literature. Aggression and Violent Behavior: A Review Journal. 2004; 9:417-40.



2. Across high-income nations, more guns = more homicide

We analyzed the relationship between homicide and gun availability using data from 26 developed countries from the early 1990s. We found that across developed countries, where guns are more available, there are more homicides. These results often hold even when the United States is excluded.

Hemenway, David; Miller, Matthew. Firearm availability and homicide rates across 26 high income countries. Journal of Trauma. 2000; 49:985-88.



3. Across states, more guns = more homicide

Using a validated proxy for firearm ownership, we analyzed the relationship between firearm availability and homicide across 50 states over a ten-year period (1988-1997).

After controlling for poverty and urbanization, for every age group, people in states with many guns have elevated rates of homicide, particularly firearm homicide.

Miller, Matthew; Azrael, Deborah; Hemenway, David. Household firearm ownership levels and homicide rates across U.S. regions and states, 1988-1997. American Journal of Public Health. 2002; 92:1988-1993.



4. Across states, more guns = more homicide (2)

Using survey data on rates of household gun ownership, we examined the association between gun availability and homicide across states, 2001-2003. We found that states with higher levels of household gun ownership had higher rates of firearm homicide and overall homicide. This relationship held for both genders and all age groups, after accounting for rates of aggravated assault, robbery, unemployment, urbanization, alcohol consumption, and resource deprivation (e.g., poverty). There was no association between gun prevalence and non-firearm homicide.

Miller, Matthew; Azrael, Deborah; Hemenway, David. State-level homicide victimization rates in the U.S. in relation to survey measures of household firearm ownership, 2001-2003. Social Science and Medicine. 2007; 64:656-64.



5. A summary of the evidence on guns and violent death

This book chapter summarizes the scientific literature on the relationship between gun prevalence (levels of household gun ownership) and suicide, homicide and unintentional firearm death and concludes that where there are higher levels of gun ownership, there are more gun suicides and more total suicides, more gun homicides and more total homicides, and more accidental gun deaths.

This is the first chapter in the book and provides and up-to-date and readable summary of the literature on the relationship between guns and death. It also adds to the literature by using the National Violent Death Reporting System data to show where (home or away) the shootings occurred. Suicides for all age groups and homicides for children and aging adults most often occurred in their own home.

Miller M, Azrael D, Hemenway D. Firearms and violence death in the United States. In: Webster DW, Vernick JS, eds. Reducing Gun Violence in America. Baltimore MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2013.



6. More guns = more homicides of police

This article examines homicide rates of Law Enforcement Officers (LEOs) from 1996 to 2010. Differences in rates of homicides of LEOs across states are best explained not by differences in crime, but by differences in household gun ownership. In high gun states, LEOs are 3 times more likely to be murdered than LEOs working in low-gun states.

This article was cited by President Obama in a speech to a police association. This article will hopefully bring police further into the camp of those pushing for sensible gun laws.

Swedler DI, Simmons MM, Dominici F, Hemenway D. Firearm prevalence and homicides of law enforcement officers in the United States. American Journal of Public Health. 2015; 105:2042-48.
 

Orbit

I'm a planet
Yes, but you should know that Australia is actually a communist totalitarian authoritarian oppressive dictatorship with no freedom or individuality. OK, so there's less dead people, but that's not really the point is it.

Are you being funny? I hope so.
 

Suave

Simulated character
Just now on NPR, I heard the talking heads talk about how
the expiration in 2004 of Clinton's "Assault Weapon Ban" (1994)
resulted in increased school shootings. (NPR has long been in
the vanguard of pushing gun ban propaganda.)
Federal Assault Weapons Ban - Wikipedia

There are a couple non-factual assumptions here.
1) The ban didn't affect any assault weapons (which are
select fire, ie, capable of semi or full auto operation).
It was limited to covering only semi auto guns.
2) The ban didn't ban any look-alikes that already existed.
They were just as easy & legal to own as before.
3) The ban imposed only insignificant regulations on
guns manufactured after Sept 13, 1994.
4) Manufacturers ramped up production greatly before
this date to meet the newly increased demand.
5) There's no evidence that the 1994 law had any
significant effect on crime.
Federal Assault Weapons Ban - Wikipedia

This thread is not for arguing about what should or shouldn't be done.
It's about giving factoids the boot, & dealing with actual facts.

But figuring what to do should be based upon solid info.

While the 1994 "assault weapons ban" may not have significantly impacted gun violence overall, the homicide rates of mass shooting deaths were lower while this federal gun control measure was in effect,

?The 1994 law barred the "manufacture, transfer, and possession" of about 118 firearm models and all magazines holding more than 10 rounds. People who already owned such weaponry could keep it. When the ban took effect, there were roughly 1.5 million assault weapons in private hands. An estimated 25 million weapons were equipped with large-capacity magazines.

The ban expired in 2004.

In a 2004 study commissioned by the U.S. Justice Department, researcher Christopher Koper wrote, "The ban’s exemption of millions of pre-ban assault weapons and large capacity magazines ensured that the effects of the law would occur only gradually."

.The point was the 1994 law was hardly an on-off switch for these firearms and magazines. As long as that hardware remained in circulation, people who wanted to use these weapons in a mass shooting would have some opportunity to acquire them.

The point was the 1994 law was hardly an on-off switch for these firearms and magazines. As long as that hardware remained in circulation, people who wanted to use these weapons in a mass shooting would have some opportunity to acquire them.

Researchers define mass shootings in different ways. DiMaggio’s group looked at incidents in which at least four people died.

In raw numbers, they found that mass shooting deaths fell during the years of the ban, and rose afterwards. DiMaggio shared his data. Deaths more than tripled in the decade after the ban ended.

The decline of 15 deaths between the decade before the ban and the decade during it is modest, but there is a clear and dramatic rise after the ban expired.

The death toll from mass shootings went from an average of 4.8 per year during the ban years to an average of 23.8 per year in the decade afterwards.

Many factors drive gun deaths. To help account for those, DiMaggio’s team put mass shooting deaths in terms of the total number of firearm homicides. Viewed that way, they found that between 1994 and 2004, the yearly rate fell by 9 people per 10,000 firearm homicides.?

PolitiFact | Joe Biden said mass shootings tripled when the assault weapon ban ended. They did
 

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
If you can point any of things at me and kill me in an instant?
By this reasoning, a 200 year old flintlock would
be as easy (or hard) to get as a fully automatic
50 cal machine gun.
That kind of regulation would never happen here.
So this illustrates the usefulness of understanding
the following...
- The kinds of guns, & how they function.
- The legislative & constitutional environment.
- The dangers & utilities of guns.
- Research on the efficacy of various kinds of
gun controls & social policies previously enacted.
 

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
While the 1994 "assault weapons ban" may not have significantly impacted gun violence overall, the homicide rates of mass shooting deaths were lower while this federal gun control measure was in effect,
During that 1994-2004 period, there were even more guns
of the kind regulated than before in private hands. This
indicates that any reduction in gun deaths would be due to
other factors.

High capacity magazines (over 10 rounds per the 1994 law)
were made & sold in greater numbers pre-ban. So they
were more available than ever before. If manufactured after
the ban, they're limited to 10 rounds.
Is a semi-auto handgun with a 10 round magazine going
to inspire fewer mass shootings than a 15 round mag?
They can be changed in a couple seconds.
 
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Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
I'm not interested in NPR's advocacy for the 1994 law.
No one is interested in knowing that you're uninterested.
I think you're just diverting attention away from the essential problem.
I think you're failing to grasp that bad reasoning as presented
on NPR today is the result of bad facts, ie, the claim that the
1994 law reduced gun deaths while in effect. This makes their
advocacy for that kind of legislation mistaken.
Please put some effort into understanding this thread's theme.
 

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
Okay, agreed. Bad facts don't necessarily lead to good conclusions.
This comment reminds me of what a friend once said
about economic analysis...
The problem with it is that understanding & information
don't always lead to the solutions he wants. So he
opposed using quantitative analysis of public policies.

At least we agree that tis better to have cromulent facts
than myths, errors, factoids, memes, & propaganda.
 

F1fan

Veteran Member
There was no lag in availability because production
increased as soon as the ban passed. However,
demand increased more than did availability, so
many affected guns rose in price. (That's why I
sold my Ruger Mini 14....money, money, money!)
Any delay would have been the design and production of the new, loophole stokes, and then to fit them to the mechanics of the guns. And yes, I sold my AK47 at a tidy profit myself.
 

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
Any delay would have been the design and production of the new, loophole stokes, and then to fit them to the mechanics of the guns. And yes, I sold my AK47 at a tidy profit myself.
What is a "loophole stoke?
Are you thinking of thumbhole stocks?
Now there's a feature that is utterly worthless to regulate.
200814112905001-4.jpg
 
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Twilight Hue

Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
It would appear that you don't like to use statistics, at least when you disagree with something?
It has to with the literary bragging going on.

Doublespeak.

Not my personal questioning of that ridiculous claim.
 

Suave

Simulated character
This comment reminds me of what a friend once said
about economic analysis...
The problem with it is that understanding & information
don't always lead to the solutions he wants. So he
opposed using quantitative analysis of public policies.

At least we agree that tis better to have cromulent facts
than myths, errors, factoids, memes, & propaganda.


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2016-04-20-1461173878-6982193-MassShootings1973to2015Chart-thumb.jpg
 
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