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Will Romney be the Next President?

Sunstone

De Diablo Del Fora
Premium Member
I'm betting that Romney will be the next president. Romney is projected to out spend Obama by at least 2 to 1. In American politics, the odds that an outspent candidate, such as Obama, will win are 6 in favor to 94 against (or roughly 1 chance in 15). Hence, I'm betting Romney will win the presidency.

Who do you think will win? And why?
 

xkatz

Well-Known Member
Probably, because people are fed up with Obama (including me), but I don't see electing Romney as a good solution.
 
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Rainbow Mage

Lib Democrat/Agnostic/Epicurean-ish/Buddhist-ish
Obama. People are fed up with how the right wing does things. Besides, Obama pretty much has the gay vote, the Hispanic vote, and unless something's changed- the African American vote.
 

MD

qualiaphile
Majority of white people over the age of 40 will vote Romney. Also hispanic conservative christians will vote Romney. The US is getting older, older people vote Republican. And everyone making 200k+ will vote Romney regardless of race.

It's a toss up, the Republican campaign machine is far richer and thus more powerful than the Democrats.
 

Watchmen

Well-Known Member
Premium Member
I'm betting that Romney will be the next president. Romney is projected to out spend Obama by at least 2 to 1. In American politics, the odds that an outspent candidate, such as Obama, will win are 6 in favor to 94 against (or roughly 1 chance in 15). Hence, I'm betting Romney will win the presidency.

Who do you think will win? And why?

I thought the Dems had the most money these days. What's your source for Romney outspending Obama 2 to 1?

I think it will be very close.
 

dust1n

Zindīq
I'm pretty sure Obama is going to win. For some reason, these things always seem intuitive to me, and I'm usually right guessing elections.

Obama has some died hard fans, and this bleeds into every tax bracket, every culture, every age group.
 

fallingblood

Agnostic Theist
From the get go, I have seen Obama winning. The Republican party screwed itself over by having too long of a race for the GOP candidate. That in itself hurt their work. And then he's Mormon, which does make it harder for him to win. And let's face it, he's not a very charming guy, so it's not like when JFK became the first Catholic to be president. I think the Republicans knew they were fighting a loosing battle from the beginning, and that's partially why they allowed such a messed up GOP race in the first place.
 

FlyingTeaPot

Irrational Rationalist. Educated Fool.
Is anything wrong with being rich?
Absolutely not, but it is a perversion of democracy if the richer candidate wins 15 to 1 even if the poorer candidate might be better. My point was that elections should be publicly financed and we need a constitutional amendment to get money out of politics.
 

FlyingTeaPot

Irrational Rationalist. Educated Fool.
@sumofawe - do you think superpacs should decide our elections? If yes, then the richer candidate will always win.
 

s2a

Heretic and part-time (skinny) Santa impersonator
I don't wager upon politics or sporting events, but I'll offer my hope that Obama manages to prevail solely based upon one factor, and only one.

It's the Supreme Court...stupid.

The economy will recover no matter whom is elected. Slowly, but under either administration it’s virtually inevitable, by purpose or accident.

However, as a middle-age white guy liberal that voted for Obama last time around, I am most concerned about the direction and preservation of individual civil liberties... and not just my own, but for those that will continue on long after I'm gone.

Only the President retains the privilege of nominating justices to the Supreme Court. Sad to say, our justices are more evidently politically partisan than any other time in my life span to date. Many 5/4 cases/rulings can be cited of recent memory, but the current "conservative" court has personified the very embodiment of indifference to either defending a representative democracy or individual civil liberties.

The current court handed down, arguably, one of the worst decisions in the last century by codifying the notion that "corporations are people" and money (MONEY!) is the very same thing as "speech".

Even one more appointed "conservative judge" could very well set back any righted social injustices or currently enjoyed protections and freedoms by 50 to 100 years.

Roe v Wade - *poof*
Voters Rights Act - *poof*
Civil Rights Act - *poof*

Labor laws, environmental laws, civil protection laws, privacy laws, immigration laws, voter laws, gun laws, workplace equality laws, banking laws...

This is no “slippery-slope fallacy” argument.

All would be challenged by those on the radical right as "unconstitutional" in one fashion or another. Trust me, many or most are already in suit on some local, state, or even federal level. And a sympathetic "conservative" court could very well alter or eliminate 75 years of social progress and justice in one year or two, with ugly repercussions spanning decades.

I know elections are theoretically driven by the electorate’s wallets… and how people perceive their own well-being economically. But I can only hope that someone will remind those same voters that elections do indeed have consequences… and that some things are more valuable than a new TV or anything of tomorrows one-time estimable intrinsic value.

The next time you witness, or fall victim to some injustice of society or governmental imposition, and you shout aloud “Somebody needs to do something about this…!”

That somebody is you, at the ballot box.

Elections really do have consequences… and I’m voting for the guy that has a post-graduate degree and was a professor of constitutional law at Harvard, not the guy that was not, is not, and will never be anything more than a defender of really rich people :)
 

FlyingTeaPot

Irrational Rationalist. Educated Fool.
Elections really do have consequences… and I’m voting for the guy that has a post-graduate degree and was a professor of constitutional law at Harvard, not the guy that was not, is not, and will never be anything more than a defender of really rich people :)
The same constitutional law professor has violated civil liberties and your precious constitution multiple times, including executive authority to order assassination of citizens without trial!
Habeus Corpus? What's that? It's not like he was a constitutional law professor at Harvard or anything. Oh, wait!
How Obama Became a Civil Libertarian's Nightmare | Civil Liberties | AlterNet
 
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Terrywoodenpic

Oldest Heretic
In the UK religion and government can and do mix.
The law courts and Government are often opposed.
The government Creates primary legislation the Judiciary interprets and applies it. They often have very different Ideas about that interpretation.
Many laws can be overturned by Europe.

Religion... Government and the interpretation of law seem to be dominated by money in the USA.
 

tytlyf

Not Religious
Obama will win. Once the debates start going on and fact checking by the media, things will actually look good for the President. The republicans won't be able to spin their way through the debates.

I'm willing to bet the Obama campaign has something surprising this season.
 

dust1n

Zindīq
Obama will win. Once the debates start going on and fact checking by the media, things will actually look good for the President. The republicans won't be able to spin their way through the debates.

I'm willing to bet the Obama campaign has something surprising this season.

Republicans will try to spin their way to office using bank reform and regulation. Whether this is going to be a legitimate effort or not (probably not), my prediction is that this will be the case.
 

Penumbra

Veteran Member
Premium Member
I'm not really sure, but I'm thinking Romney is more likely to win.

The debates that they have will likely be of importance, so a bad showing by either of them could change things quickly.

Most people seem to vote based on a very small number of factors, or based on only a surface view of the information that is often presented to them in distorted ways.
 
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