Welcome to the second spike

[Secret Chief]

'Crystal clear' drunk people will not keep distance

People lose their inhibitions when under the influence of alcohol: that isn't actually news is it?

Get your hand gel now.

 

[exchemist]

'Crystal clear' drunk people will not keep distance

People lose their inhibitions when under the influence of alcohol: that isn't actually news is it?

Get your hand gel now.

I shall be interested to see if there is a rise in hospital admissions starting about 2-3 weeks from now. That is what one would predict.

However I would not be surprised if this doesn't happen. I have the feeling from the London data that the dynamics may have changed. I'm not sure why: perhaps higher vitamin D level in summer, or perhaps a much greater awareness among vulnerable groups that they need to protect themselves. But it seems odd that the London admissions continue to fall away, in spite of the lifting of so many restrictions.

Also, I am becoming convinced that the disease arrived in London about a month before everyone has been saying, and has spread more widely than is reported. I would not be surprised if there is wider immunity than recognised. From what I understand, the current antibody tests would not detect immunity mediated by T-cells, for example. Possibly we are closer to herd immunity than we think.

But this indeed will be a test.......

 

[Secret Chief]

I shall be interested to see if there is a rise in hospital admissions starting about 2-3 weeks from now. That is what one would predict.

However I would not be surprised if this doesn't happen. I have the feeling from the London data that the dynamics may have changed. I'm not sure why: perhaps higher vitamin D level in summer, or perhaps a much greater awareness among vulnerable groups that they need to protect themselves. But it seems odd that the London admissions continue to fall away, in spite of the lifting of so many restrictions.

Also, I am becoming convinced that the disease arrived in London about a month before everyone has been saying, and has spread more widely than is reported. I would not be surprised if there is wider immunity than recognised. From what I understand, the current antibody tests would not detect immunity mediated by T-cells, for example. Possibly we are closer to herd immunity than we think.

But this indeed will be a test.......

I hope so. See you on July 26 for an update!

 

[exchemist]

I hope so. See you on July 26 for an update!

Except I'll be in Brittany by then, finding out what the French rules are for social distancing, masks etc. But I may check in with the BBC website occasionally, even so.

 

[Polymath257]

We in the US haven't gotten over the first spike......ugh

 

[ChristineM]

Except I'll be in Brittany by then, finding out what the French rules are for social distancing, masks etc. But I may check in with the BBC website occasionally, even so.

One metre, masks are recommended (compulsory on public transport), use provided hand gel when entering shops, no groups bigger than 10 people (still social distancing)

As i understand it visitors from Britain must self isolate for 2 weeks.

More info...

COVID-19: UK and French travel and quarantine measures

 

[Rational Agnostic]

I shall be interested to see if there is a rise in hospital admissions starting about 2-3 weeks from now. That is what one would predict.

However I would not be surprised if this doesn't happen. I have the feeling from the London data that the dynamics may have changed. I'm not sure why: perhaps higher vitamin D level in summer, or perhaps a much greater awareness among vulnerable groups that they need to protect themselves. But it seems odd that the London admissions continue to fall away, in spite of the lifting of so many restrictions.

Also, I am becoming convinced that the disease arrived in London about a month before everyone has been saying, and has spread more widely than is reported. I would not be surprised if there is wider immunity than recognised. From what I understand, the current antibody tests would not detect immunity mediated by T-cells, for example. Possibly we are closer to herd immunity than we think.

But this indeed will be a test.......

In the US, we had a major spike of cases that started around 2-3 weeks ago, and so far, deaths have not spiked. My idea is that less deadly mutations of the virus will be favored by natural selection, as a person who lives through the virus has a longer time period in which to spread the virus and thus will spread it to more people on average. My community has had around 500 confirmed cases and still 0 deaths.