Social physics - Azimov's psychohistory could be happening

[sun rise]

As wikipedia notes, Psychohistory is a fictional science in Isaac Asimov's Foundation universe which combines history, sociology, and mathematical statistics to make general predictions about the future behavior of very large groups of people[/SIZE]

The article notes: a new and fascinating transdisciplinary field of social physics is emerging that combines history, statistical mechanics, and data science to look for deeper (and even predictive) patterns during human events. That sure sounds like Asimov's psychohistory.

Social physics: Are we at a tipping point in world history?

Does history have a grand narrative, or is it just a random walk to no place in particular? And is the world as we know it about to change?

• 
  
  
  • This moment in history feels different, as if we really are on the cusp of something epoch-making for good or ill. Does that mean we're at a tipping point?
  • If we are, then we can ask two questions: (1) Does history have a grand narrative? (2) Is there an arc to history?
  • Social physics, which is a branch of complex system theory, can help answer these questions.

(The article ends with: )

Tipping points

But then there are moments in the system's evolution when it begins nearing what are called "critical points" or "tipping points." The background dynamic of the system is ripe for being blown up. It is only at a critical point that a random bread riot can suddenly escalate into a storming of the palace, which then leads to an overturn of the ruling council, which then possibly leads to an entirely new social arrangement.

For me at least, complex systems help us understand how the two forms of the question about grand narratives get put together. The arc of history is not smooth, and it is not determined beforehand. Randomness as a social system approaches critical points is all important. But grand narratives spun by writers, philosophers, artists, politicians, and scientists can create a background of ideas. As you near a tipping point, those ideas can get picked up and amplified to become the organizing principles for the new arrangement that emerges.

So, the big questions now become: (1) Are we near a tipping point? (2) What are the new ideas that stand ready to take us someplace new and better?

 

[beenherebeforeagain]

• This moment in history feels different, as if we really are on the cusp of something epoch-making for good or ill. Does that mean we're at a tipping point?

• If we are, then we can ask two questions: (1) Does history have a grand narrative? (2) Is there an arc to history?

• Social physics, which is a branch of complex system theory, can help answer these questions.

Being in history always seems like it on the edge of a history-making epoch, for good or ill. We're always at a tipping point.

History can only be said to have a grand narrative in retrospect; the same with an arc.

I have seen no evidence that anyone has achieved sufficient resolution in data collection and modeling to tell us clearly--at the time or in advance--that we are at a tipping point, nor effectively and reliably influence the course of events as depicted in the Foundation series.

 

[sun rise]

Being in history always seems like it on the edge of a history-making epoch, for good or ill. We're always at a tipping point.

What is your evidence to refute the conjecture in the OP that tipping points are special and not "always"?

No one is claiming that we have a social physics Hari Seldon so the second paragraph is true but not relevant.

 

[beenherebeforeagain]

What is your evidence to refute the conjecture in the OP that tipping points are special and not "always"?

No one is claiming that we have a social physics Hari Seldon so the second paragraph is true but not relevant.

I see evidence from history that virtually continually, in all cultures at all times, people have been making the claim that for better or worse, the world was on the verge of a new era. People write histories showing a grand arc and grand narrative...and yet, a decade, century or millennia later, people are making the same claims and writing different grand narratives about the arc of history.

Between each of these narratives, one can in retrospect define these arcs and points of deflection and tipping points, etc.

And, maybe, we're advanced enough that we can perhaps perceive some of the current trends in the world and create models that will sort of show that we're at certain kinds of tipping points in relation to the ecosystems of Earth. I doubt that socially/culturally, etc., we could do so, other than to recognize that changes in the ecosystems of the Earth will have an impact on civilization.

 

[amorphous_constellation]

I like that term , 'social physics.' I don't know anything about it, but it looks like a door to understanding the situation. I'd say that if we reach a point where social physics is real, and psychology and neuroscience become divine theology, then in a way, that kind of takes the magic out of life, and AI is seems like it becomes a reality. Basically, that is AI. I don't know , maybe we need it at this point, because too many people are acting in poor ways that now need to be understood. So, why not sculpt out the model better with social physics , and the resultant futuristic biological edits.

 

[Brickjectivity]

The article notes: a new and fascinating transdisciplinary field of social physics is emerging that combines history, statistical mechanics, and data science to look for deeper (and even predictive) patterns during human events. That sure sounds like Asimov's psychohistory.

It is some pretty scary stuff, yes. The main difference is that it works in the near future right? Psychohistory (from fiction) works better making predictions about the far away future, not anything soon.

 

[sun rise]

It is some pretty scary stuff, yes. The main difference is that it works in the near future right? Psychohistory (from fiction) works better making predictions about the far away future, not anything soon.

There are any number of science fiction technology ideas coming to pass but of course not 100% exactly. It's starting to look like social physics might be another example of what a number stories noted such as 9 predictions from old sci-fi movies that actually came true

 

[Brickjectivity]

There are any number of science fiction technology ideas coming to pass but of course not 100% exactly. It's starting to look like social physics might be another example of what a number stories noted such as 9 predictions from old sci-fi movies that actually came true

I want a powered exoskeleton. I really need one. Really.

...with air conditioning. That's important.

 

[Kooky]

It looks to me like an appropriation of terminology from the physical sciences, perhaps in order to stop universities from shutting down social science and humanities departments.

 

[Heyo]

What is your evidence to refute the conjecture in the OP that tipping points are special and not "always"?

No one is claiming that we have a social physics Hari Seldon so the second paragraph is true but not relevant.

The most important election in history is always the coming. About 3 times a year scientists make a discovery that "may change history". It is a common bias on the present.
Predictions always rest on the assumption that thing will almost stay the same other then the researched phenomenon, which will proceed according to a smooth curve.
The current "most important" phenomenon is global warming. But when tomorrow a super volcano erupts we are into a new ice age. Such unpredictable events make any prediction moot.

 

[Revoltingest]

As wikipedia notes, Psychohistory is a fictional science in Isaac Asimov's Foundation universe which combines history, sociology, and mathematical statistics to make general predictions about the future behavior of very large groups of people[/SIZE]

The article notes: a new and fascinating transdisciplinary field of social physics is emerging that combines history, statistical mechanics, and data science to look for deeper (and even predictive) patterns during human events. That sure sounds like Asimov's psychohistory.

Social physics: Are we at a tipping point in world history?

Does history have a grand narrative, or is it just a random walk to no place in particular? And is the world as we know it about to change?

• 
  
  
  • This moment in history feels different, as if we really are on the cusp of something epoch-making for good or ill. Does that mean we're at a tipping point?
  • If we are, then we can ask two questions: (1) Does history have a grand narrative? (2) Is there an arc to history?
  • Social physics, which is a branch of complex system theory, can help answer these questions.

(The article ends with: )

Tipping points

But then there are moments in the system's evolution when it begins nearing what are called "critical points" or "tipping points." The background dynamic of the system is ripe for being blown up. It is only at a critical point that a random bread riot can suddenly escalate into a storming of the palace, which then leads to an overturn of the ruling council, which then possibly leads to an entirely new social arrangement.

For me at least, complex systems help us understand how the two forms of the question about grand narratives get put together. The arc of history is not smooth, and it is not determined beforehand. Randomness as a social system approaches critical points is all important. But grand narratives spun by writers, philosophers, artists, politicians, and scientists can create a background of ideas. As you near a tipping point, those ideas can get picked up and amplified to become the organizing principles for the new arrangement that emerges.

So, the big questions now become: (1) Are we near a tipping point? (2) What are the new ideas that stand ready to take us someplace new and better?

Economics has long been a quantitative social science.

 

[Regiomontanus]

As wikipedia notes, Psychohistory is a fictional science in Isaac Asimov's Foundation universe which combines history, sociology, and mathematical statistics to make general predictions about the future behavior of very large groups of people[/SIZE]

The article notes: a new and fascinating transdisciplinary field of social physics is emerging that combines history, statistical mechanics, and data science to look for deeper (and even predictive) patterns during human events. That sure sounds like Asimov's psychohistory.

Social physics: Are we at a tipping point in world history?

Does history have a grand narrative, or is it just a random walk to no place in particular? And is the world as we know it about to change?

• 
  
  
  • This moment in history feels different, as if we really are on the cusp of something epoch-making for good or ill. Does that mean we're at a tipping point?
  • If we are, then we can ask two questions: (1) Does history have a grand narrative? (2) Is there an arc to history?
  • Social physics, which is a branch of complex system theory, can help answer these questions.

(The article ends with: )

Tipping points

But then there are moments in the system's evolution when it begins nearing what are called "critical points" or "tipping points." The background dynamic of the system is ripe for being blown up. It is only at a critical point that a random bread riot can suddenly escalate into a storming of the palace, which then leads to an overturn of the ruling council, which then possibly leads to an entirely new social arrangement.

For me at least, complex systems help us understand how the two forms of the question about grand narratives get put together. The arc of history is not smooth, and it is not determined beforehand. Randomness as a social system approaches critical points is all important. But grand narratives spun by writers, philosophers, artists, politicians, and scientists can create a background of ideas. As you near a tipping point, those ideas can get picked up and amplified to become the organizing principles for the new arrangement that emerges.

So, the big questions now become: (1) Are we near a tipping point? (2) What are the new ideas that stand ready to take us someplace new and better?

Oh boy, someone mentioned Asimov . He was a big influence on me.

Anyway, no. Psychohistory, as in the Foundation universe, is impossible. What I mean is the precision. Sure trends can be identified and one can make some predictions about group behavior. But not like in the novels. IMO

 

[Wandering Monk]

As wikipedia notes, Psychohistory is a fictional science in Isaac Asimov's Foundation universe which combines history, sociology, and mathematical statistics to make general predictions about the future behavior of very large groups of people[/SIZE]

The article notes: a new and fascinating transdisciplinary field of social physics is emerging that combines history, statistical mechanics, and data science to look for deeper (and even predictive) patterns during human events. That sure sounds like Asimov's psychohistory.

Social physics: Are we at a tipping point in world history?

Does history have a grand narrative, or is it just a random walk to no place in particular? And is the world as we know it about to change?

• 
  
  
  • This moment in history feels different, as if we really are on the cusp of something epoch-making for good or ill. Does that mean we're at a tipping point?
  • If we are, then we can ask two questions: (1) Does history have a grand narrative? (2) Is there an arc to history?
  • Social physics, which is a branch of complex system theory, can help answer these questions.

(The article ends with: )

Tipping points

But then there are moments in the system's evolution when it begins nearing what are called "critical points" or "tipping points." The background dynamic of the system is ripe for being blown up. It is only at a critical point that a random bread riot can suddenly escalate into a storming of the palace, which then leads to an overturn of the ruling council, which then possibly leads to an entirely new social arrangement.

For me at least, complex systems help us understand how the two forms of the question about grand narratives get put together. The arc of history is not smooth, and it is not determined beforehand. Randomness as a social system approaches critical points is all important. But grand narratives spun by writers, philosophers, artists, politicians, and scientists can create a background of ideas. As you near a tipping point, those ideas can get picked up and amplified to become the organizing principles for the new arrangement that emerges.

So, the big questions now become: (1) Are we near a tipping point? (2) What are the new ideas that stand ready to take us someplace new and better?

Just in time for the movie. Gee, who could have seen THAT coming!