As wikipedia notes, Psychohistory is a fictional science in Isaac Asimov's Foundation universe which combines history, sociology, and mathematical statistics to make general predictions about the future behavior of very large groups of people[/SIZE]
The article notes: a new and fascinating transdisciplinary field of social physics is emerging that combines history, statistical mechanics, and data science to look for deeper (and even predictive) patterns during human events. That sure sounds like Asimov's psychohistory.
Social physics: Are we at a tipping point in world history?
Does history have a grand narrative, or is it just a random walk to no place in particular? And is the world as we know it about to change?
Tipping points
But then there are moments in the system's evolution when it begins nearing what are called "critical points" or "tipping points." The background dynamic of the system is ripe for being blown up. It is only at a critical point that a random bread riot can suddenly escalate into a storming of the palace, which then leads to an overturn of the ruling council, which then possibly leads to an entirely new social arrangement.
For me at least, complex systems help us understand how the two forms of the question about grand narratives get put together. The arc of history is not smooth, and it is not determined beforehand. Randomness as a social system approaches critical points is all important. But grand narratives spun by writers, philosophers, artists, politicians, and scientists can create a background of ideas. As you near a tipping point, those ideas can get picked up and amplified to become the organizing principles for the new arrangement that emerges.
So, the big questions now become: (1) Are we near a tipping point? (2) What are the new ideas that stand ready to take us someplace new and better?
The article notes: a new and fascinating transdisciplinary field of social physics is emerging that combines history, statistical mechanics, and data science to look for deeper (and even predictive) patterns during human events. That sure sounds like Asimov's psychohistory.
Social physics: Are we at a tipping point in world history?
Does history have a grand narrative, or is it just a random walk to no place in particular? And is the world as we know it about to change?
- This moment in history feels different, as if we really are on the cusp of something epoch-making for good or ill. Does that mean we're at a tipping point?
- If we are, then we can ask two questions: (1) Does history have a grand narrative? (2) Is there an arc to history?
- Social physics, which is a branch of complex system theory, can help answer these questions.
Tipping points
But then there are moments in the system's evolution when it begins nearing what are called "critical points" or "tipping points." The background dynamic of the system is ripe for being blown up. It is only at a critical point that a random bread riot can suddenly escalate into a storming of the palace, which then leads to an overturn of the ruling council, which then possibly leads to an entirely new social arrangement.
For me at least, complex systems help us understand how the two forms of the question about grand narratives get put together. The arc of history is not smooth, and it is not determined beforehand. Randomness as a social system approaches critical points is all important. But grand narratives spun by writers, philosophers, artists, politicians, and scientists can create a background of ideas. As you near a tipping point, those ideas can get picked up and amplified to become the organizing principles for the new arrangement that emerges.
So, the big questions now become: (1) Are we near a tipping point? (2) What are the new ideas that stand ready to take us someplace new and better?