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Social distancing demonstrated scientifically to reduce the spread of COVID-19

shunyadragon

shunyadragon
Premium Member
It wasn't even a simulation. It is a mathematical/physical model.

I think a good simulation would not only be able to test models and develop new ones but it would also be a great tool for educating people.

Read carefully, the simulation and future model was a projection model, which yes is open to modification the bulk of the article was based on actual counts. From source:

"To date, more than 1,000 cases of coronavirus and 13 COVID-19 deaths were linked to religious gatherings statewide, with the number of church-related clusters on the rise since September, according to data published Wednesday by DHHS.

Religious gatherings were third, behind meat-packing plants and colleges and universities, as a source of the greatest community spread, according to a new report on the origin of clusters of coronavirus cases issued by NCDHHS on Wednesday.

“As community spread of COVID-19 continues in North Carolina, clusters of cases are being identified in workplaces, educational settings and many other community locations,” DHHS stated in a release."
 

shunyadragon

shunyadragon
Premium Member
High COVID-19 Attack Rate Among Attendees at Events at a Church ...

High COVID-19 Attack Rate Among Attendees at Events at a Church — Arkansas, March 2020


Discussion

This investigation identified 35 confirmed COVID-19 cases among 92 attendees at church A events during March 6–11; estimated attack rates ranged from 38% to 78%. Despite canceling in-person church activities and closing the church as soon as it was recognized that several members of the congregation had become ill, widespread transmission within church A and within the surrounding community occurred. The primary patients had no known COVID-19 exposures in the 14 days preceding their symptom onset dates, suggesting that local transmission was occurring before case detection.

Children represented 35% of all church A attendees but accounted for only 18% of persons who received testing and 6% of confirmed cases. These findings are consistent with those from other reports suggesting that many children with COVID-19 experience more asymptomatic infections or milder symptoms and have lower hospitalization rates than do adults (4,5). The role of asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic children in SARS-CoV-2 transmission remains unknown and represents a critical knowledge gap as officials consider reopening public places.

The risk for symptomatic infection among adults aged ≥65 years was not higher than that among adults aged 19–64 years. However, six of the seven hospitalized persons and all three deaths occurred in persons aged ≥65 years, consistent with other U.S. data indicating a higher risk for COVID-19–associated hospitalization and death among persons aged ≥65 years (6).

The findings in this report are subject to at least four limitations. First, some infected persons might have been missed because they did not seek testing, were ineligible for testing based on criteria at the time, or were unable to access testing. Second, although no previous cases had been reported from this county, undetected low-level community transmission was likely, and some patients in this cluster might have had exposures outside the church. Third, risk of exposure likely varied among attendees but could not be characterized because data regarding individual behaviors (e.g., shaking hands or hugging) were not collected. Finally, the number of cases beyond the cohort of church attendees likely is undercounted because tracking out-of-state transmission was not possible, and patients might not have identified church members as their source of exposure.

High transmission rates of SARS-CoV-2 have been reported from hospitals (7), long-term care facilities (8), family gatherings (9), a choir practice (10), and, in this report, church events. Faith-based organizations that are operating or planning to resume in-person operations, including regular services, funerals, or other events, should be aware of the potential for high rates of transmission of SARS-CoV-2. These organizations should work with local health officials to determine how to implement the U.S. Government’s guidelines for modifying activities during the COVID-19 pandemic to prevent transmission of the virus to their members and their communities (2).
 

Heyo

Veteran Member
Read carefully, the simulation and future model was a projection model, which yes is open to modification the bulk of the article was based on actual counts. From source:

"To date, more than 1,000 cases of coronavirus and 13 COVID-19 deaths were linked to religious gatherings statewide, with the number of church-related clusters on the rise since September, according to data published Wednesday by DHHS.

Religious gatherings were third, behind meat-packing plants and colleges and universities, as a source of the greatest community spread, according to a new report on the origin of clusters of coronavirus cases issued by NCDHHS on Wednesday.

“As community spread of COVID-19 continues in North Carolina, clusters of cases are being identified in workplaces, educational settings and many other community locations,” DHHS stated in a release."
We may have slightly different opinions what a simulation is.
Imagine something like SimCity, SimAnt or the Sims. Simulated people who can be represented by an icon or a dot on a screen. The Sims can move around and contact others. They have properties like "wears mask", "infected" or "keeps social distance".
You can then run the simulation with different parameters and see how the pandemic spreads (or not). If your parameters are based in reality, you can use the simulation to decide which measures to employ.
 

shunyadragon

shunyadragon
Premium Member
We may have slightly different opinions what a simulation is.
Imagine something like SimCity, SimAnt or the Sims. Simulated people who can be represented by an icon or a dot on a screen. The Sims can move around and contact others. They have properties like "wears mask", "infected" or "keeps social distance".
You can then run the simulation with different parameters and see how the pandemic spreads (or not). If your parameters are based in reality, you can use the simulation to decide which measures to employ.

Well the article directly cited involved actual historical data tracking COVID-19 cases and fatalities over time. This research is not involved in any simulation as is. It was used in simulation modeling research.

The simulation and model involved in future projections of COVID-19 tracking. SimCity and Sim Ant are games and not the science involved in this research. Simulation models in science are used to project future events, patterns based on research real world data.
 

Ponder This

Well-Known Member
Read the article carefully. What is called a simulation or modeling is the basis of future projections of the spread of COVID-19

From the source that the actual count of the origin of the tracking of cases indicates:

"To date, moreca than 1,000 cases of coronavirus and 13 COVID-19 deaths were linked to religious gatherings statewide, with the number of church-related clusters on the rise since September, according to data published Wednesday by DHHS.

Religious gatherings were third, behind meat-packing plants and colleges and universities, as a source of the greatest community spread, according to a new report on the origin of clusters of coronavirus cases issued by NCDHHS on Wednesday.

“As community spread of COVID-19 continues in North Carolina, clusters of cases are being identified in workplaces, educational settings and many other community locations,” DHHS stated in a release."

This for North Carolina a very conservative Christian state in the rural counties. The danger is apparent. Colleges involve youngest population, meat packing plants the next, and churches invovle the oldest average population and the highest risk of fatalities and severe cases.

As I said, "More to follow."

Wait, Is this about the size of social gatherings? Or is this about social distance?
They are not the same thing.
 

shunyadragon

shunyadragon
Premium Member
Wait, Is this about the size of social gatherings? Or is this about social distance?
They are not the same thing.

They are both intimately related including the use of masks. The church gatherings that lead to the spread did not effectively follow any guide lines.

It is possible to have social distancing and use masks for social gatherings and limiting the size of the gathering.
 

shunyadragon

shunyadragon
Premium Member
These are NJ DMV lines. I guess this is ok, especially since license and registration renewals, paying surcharges, and other business can be done online. But what do I know, I only live here. :shrug:

nj dmv lines 2020 - Google Search

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Not necessarily OK. Things are difficult during COVID-19 pandemic. I noticed most of the pictures had people wearing masks, and mostly social distancing. In outdoors the hazard is far less. One picture indoors did have a much higher than recommended crowding in doors.
 
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