Social distancing demonstrated scientifically to reduce the spread of COVID-19

[Ponder This]

Social distancing demonstrated scientifically to reduce the spread of COVID-19
Today, 08:37 PM

Source: Physicists Use New Model to Demonstrate Decrease in Infection Rates Through Social Distancing


Physicists Use New Model to Demonstrate Decrease in Infection Rates Through Social Distancing

By UNIVERSITY OF MÜNSTER



Simulations based on a new model for the spread of epidemics show the decrease in infection rates as a result of social distancing. Credit: M. te Vrugt et al./Nature Research
Understanding the Spread of Infectious Diseases


Scientists worldwide have been working flat out on research into infectious diseases in the wake of the global outbreak of the COVID-19 disease, caused by the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. This concerns not only virologists, but also physicists, who are developing mathematical models to describe the spread of epidemics. Such models are important for testing the effects of various measures designed to contain the disease – such as face masks, closing public buildings and businesses, and the familiar one of social distancing. These models often serve as a basis for political decisions and underline the justification for any measures taken.

Physicists Michael te Vrugt, Jens Bickmann and Prof. Raphael Wittkowski from the Institute of Theoretical Physics and the Center for Soft Nanoscience at the University of Münster have developed a new model showing the spread of infectious diseases. The working group led by Raphael Wittkowski is studying Statistical Physics, i.e. the description of systems consisting of a large number of particles. In their work, the physicists also use dynamical density functional theory (DDFT), a method developed in the 1990s which enables interacting particles to be described.

At the beginning of the corona pandemic, they realized that the same method is useful for describing the spread of diseases. “In principle, people who observe social distancing can be modeled as particles which repel one another because they have, for example, the same electrical charge,” explains lead author Michael te Vrugt. “So perhaps theories describing particles which repel one another might be applicable to people keeping their distance from one another,” he adds. Based on this idea, they developed the so-called SIR-DDFT model, which combines the SIR model (a well-known theory describing the spread of infectious diseases) with DDFT. The resulting theory describes people who can infect one another but who keep their distance. “The theory also makes it possible to describe hotspots with infected people, which improves our understanding of the dynamics of so-called super-spreader events earlier this year such as the carnival celebrations in Heinsberg or the après-ski in Ischgl,” adds co-author Jens Bickmann. The results of the study have been published in the journal Nature Communications.

The extent of the social distancing being practiced is then defined by the strength of the repulsive interactions. “As a result,” explains Raphael Wittkowski, the leader of the study, “this theory can also be used to test the effects of social distancing by simulating an epidemic and varying the values for the parameters defining the strength of the interactions.” The simulations show that the infection rates do indeed show a marked decrease that is a result of social distancing. The model thus reproduces the familiar “flattening the curve” effect, in which the curve depicting the development of the number of infected people over time becomes much flatter as a result of social distancing. In comparison with existing theories, the new model has the advantage that the effects of social interactions can be explicitly modeled.

Reference: “Effects of social distancing and isolation on epidemic spreading modeled via dynamical density functional theory” by Michael te Vrugt, Jens Bickmann and Raphael Wittkowski, 4 November 2020, Nature Communications.
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19024-0

Funding: The Wittkowski working group is being funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG, WI 4170/3-1).

I was really excited that a clear study had been made as a scientific slam dunk to back the obvious common sense of social distancing...
then I realized it was only a simulation.

 

[Heyo]

I was really excited that a clear study had been made as a scientific slam dunk to back the obvious common sense of social distancing...
then I realized it was only a simulation.

It wasn't even a simulation. It is a mathematical/physical model.

I think a good simulation would not only be able to test models and develop new ones but it would also be a great tool for educating people.

 

[Unveiled Artist]

Justifying attending church at the expense of fatalities and disabling illnesses due to COVID-19. You have not responded to the fact that church services are a major cause of the spread of COVID-19 and the resulting fatalities.

I feel church services are needed in a crisis situation.

Any place where there is a bunch of people will spread germs. As for fatalities, I don't believe everything I see on television. That's about it with that.

You still are not making your position clear. You appealed to meaningless extremes in your first response.

I keep re-reading my response. Its very clear. Do I have to agree with you for it to be meaningful? Even more so have the same intense feelings people have hear about others in a crisis situation?

 

[Unveiled Artist]

These are NJ DMV lines. I guess this is ok, especially since license and registration renewals, paying surcharges, and other business can be done online. But what do I know, I only live here.

nj dmv lines 2020 - Google Search

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Well. I don't know how long this is going to last. I don't think they'd fine a cure any time soon (I wish it were like that with other illnesses too. Overnight cure). I think to keep businesses from falling, something's got to give. Some states are more lenient than others, I've noticed. I'm pretty much indifferent about it these days.

I mean I can be sad over the pictures even frustrated, but that doesn't help. Hang my head down I guess?

 

[Unveiled Artist]

I understand why the need for church services. Unless the virus was a gas or 100% deadly disease (you catch it, you drop dead), social distancing and masks should be all that's needed. I don't see anyone rejecting science. You can read something, understand the risk, and "make your own sound decisions" based on your experience and the context of the situation. We do that 24/7. But I agree with "church supporters", we do need services. The political gatherings and social events, though, I find that a bit premature. Sometimes I catch myself eying people who don't have masks and social distancing just because I see it on RF a lot. Maybe it's more about people's human nature to be defense when health emergencies become political. I don't see it as the fault of the individual rather than the government. If I had to choose between the two.

I standby this reply as it's all I really have anything to say about the situation in a nutshell @shunyadragon. It's sad that people put themselves and others at risk by being close to each other to spread germs. As for fatalities, I keep that at a distance. The situation is too complex for me to jump sides.

 

[Jainarayan]

Well. I don't know how long this is going to last. I don't think they'd fine a cure any time soon (I wish it were like that with other illnesses too. Overnight cure). I think to keep businesses from falling, something's got to give. Some states are more lenient than others, I've noticed. I'm pretty much indifferent about it these days.

I mean I can be sad over the pictures even frustrated, but that doesn't help. Hang my head down I guess?

NJ is already in a world of hurt. A number of local businesses have already closed permanently, others are still struggling.

My own company cut jobs from three data centers, two distribution centers, the corporate office, and stores all across the country. The state had an unemployment rate of 14-16%. There are nine million people in NJ. One million have been out of work. But that’s not a ten percent u/e rate, because not everyone is in the workforce... children, elderly, disabled.

It’s dropping now because people’s benefits are running out. I’m not going to find anything in my field because jobs are being eliminated. If they weren’t I’d still have my job.

I don’t believe for a minute there will be a cure. If this virus is deadlier and more contagious than the flu, which has no cure, what makes anyone think a cure will be found? What makes anyone think a vaccine is going to do anything? If the flu virus and common cold virus mutate year to year, why wouldn’t coronavirus mutate similarly?

I don’t think NJ will ever recover fully. Gov. Horsetooth won’t let us, and it’s financial. He wants federal aid to balance our ****ed up budget. He can’t use covid for that reason, so he’s been throwing temper tantrums. He’s threatening another lockdown, and it’s not because cases are rising.

If anyone says it’s because we’re not following the rules I’ll go to any mall, supermarket, big box store and video them to show compliance with the rules, pictures of signs on stores requiring masks, keeping a distance as much as possible and limitations on people entering. NJ has done everything required, we flattened the curve by May, and we’re still under that Bucktooth *******’s draconian restrictions.

The funny thing, however, is that we haven’t heard Word One about covid since the media declared Biden the winner.

Welcome to New Jersey in 2020.

 

[shunyadragon]

I feel church services are needed in a crisis situation.

Yo have not clarified the problem of how church services can be safe and not spread COVID-19 and contribute to the debiitating and suffering of COVID-19 as is presently a main vector for COVID-19.

Any place where there is a bunch of people will spread germs. As for fatalities, I don't believe everything I see on television. That's about it with that.

Not asking you to believe everything on television, but there are many factual sources on the nature of the COVID-19.

The bold above is incomplete and misleading. Gatherings with appropriate social distancing and masks greatly reduce the opportunity of the spread of COVID-19. The topic is COVID-19 and not all germs(?).

I keep re-reading my response. Its very clear. Do I have to agree with you for it to be meaningful? Even more so have the same intense feelings people have hear about others in a crisis situation?

Referring to extreme unrealistic extremes does not make things clear as to the reality of the present situation.

 

[Unveiled Artist]

Yo have not clarified the problem of how church services can be safe and not spread COVID-19 and contribute to the debiitating and suffering of COVID-19 as is presently a main vector for COVID-19.

I said it makes sense people have churches in a crisis situation. I haven't read I made a claim that being in a church (or whatever building) is a safe haven from people spreading germs. That's just the nature of human contact: risk of exposure. The nature of the church is to build solace in a religious setting. Adults who need that solace in a crisis situation takes risk (as we all do when we go in public) of catching diseases. I also said COVID isn't a gas and it isn't something you can drop dead from catching it (thank god). So, of course it's serious; and, people are adults.

Not asking you to believe everything on television, but there are many factual sources on the nature of the COVID-19.

The bold above is incomplete and misleading. Gatherings with appropriate social distancing and masks greatly reduce the opportunity of the spread of COVID-19. The topic is COVID-19 and not all germs(?).

Any place where there is a gathering of people will have potential to spread different viruses. I can't figure why it would be misleading. Maybe germs isn't the right word?

Referring to extreme unrealistic extremes does not make things clear as to the reality of the present situation.

Extreme unrealistic extremes?

I just said the church services are important in crisis situations
People spread viruses (any type) when in close contact
I'm indifferent to the situation as I don't take up everything I read as is
People make their own choices
It is sad that people gather "and" my personal feelings aren't harshly directed to an adult's individual choice to congregate for religious peace in a time of panic.

 

[Unveiled Artist]

NJ is already in a world of hurt. A number of local businesses have already closed permanently, others are still struggling.

My own company cut jobs from three data centers, two distribution centers, the corporate office, and stores all across the country. The state had an unemployment rate of 14-16%. There are nine million people in NJ. One million have been out of work. But that’s not a ten percent u/e rate, because not everyone is in the workforce... children, elderly, disabled.

It’s dropping now because people’s benefits are running out. I’m not going to find anything in my field because jobs are being eliminated. If they weren’t I’d still have my job.

Oh my goodness. I'm supposed to be working with a employment agency for people with disabilities to keep their benefits while working. Without experience, it's already hard to find a job and at the same time this COVID virtual thing makes it nearly impossible. I do hope medical benefits don't change for Medicaid people. Though I think Biden said something about helping with medical insurance for people in general. I'm not sure about employment details though businesses are cutting their services.

I don’t believe for a minute there will be a cure. If this virus is deadlier and more contagious than the flu, which has no cure, what makes anyone think a cure will be found? What makes anyone think a vaccine is going to do anything? If the flu virus and common cold virus mutate year to year, why wouldn’t coronavirus mutate similarly?

I agree.

I don’t think NJ will ever recover fully. Gov. Horsetooth won’t let us, and it’s financial. He wants federal aid to balance our ****ed up budget. He can’t use covid for that reason, so he’s been throwing temper tantrums. He’s threatening another lockdown, and it’s not because cases are rising.

Oh? What's his excuse?

If anyone says it’s because we’re not following the rules I’ll go to any mall, supermarket, big box store and video them to show compliance with the rules, pictures of signs on stores requiring masks, keeping a distance as much as possible and limitations on people entering. NJ has done everything required, we flattened the curve by May, and we’re still under that Bucktooth *******’s draconian restrictions.

Agree. We can't go in stores without masks. Governor mandate. I think business would get fined if they were "caught." The only businesses that have a half-mask (on entry but not in the building) are exercising businesses. Though, because of the nature of sweat and germs, there isn't many people there. Some that are wear masks and I found that somewhat odd on treadmills that are situated more than six feet apart from its peer.

What does that really mean "flattening the curve?" I'm sure the virus hasn't disappeared because less people catch it. Unless we have six feet and masks indefinitely, I'd assume the curve will go up and down depending on what is considered a case and whether whomever is taking note of deaths are considering them from COVID itself or dying of another condition aggravated by COVID (or vis versa).

The funny thing, however, is that we haven’t heard Word One about covid since the media declared Biden the winner.

Welcome to New Jersey in 2020

Now THAT'S an good observation.

 

[Jainarayan]

Oh my goodness. I'm supposed to be working with a employment agency for people with disabilities to keep their benefits while working. Without experience, it's already hard to find a job and at the same time this COVID virtual thing makes it nearly impossible. I do hope medical benefits don't change for Medicaid people. Though I think Biden said something about helping with medical insurance for people in general. I'm not sure about employment details though businesses are cutting their services.

I agree.

Oh? What's his excuse?

He stated that if the condition for federal aid was that it not be used for other than covid-related issues he was going to refuse it. Just my opinion that if he doesn’t want to use the funds for pandemic assistance he must not think it’s as serious as he’s been saying.

Agree. We can't go in stores without masks. Governor mandate. I think business would get fined if they were "caught." The only businesses that have a half-mask (on entry but not in the building) are exercising businesses. Though, because of the nature of sweat and germs, there isn't many people there. Some that are wear masks and I found that somewhat odd on treadmills that are situated more than six feet apart from its peer.

I went into the gym last week to change my home club (I moved). There were a few people there, with masks, weight lifting but no one I saw doing cardio. If I were lifting the way I used to, I wouldn’t be able to. When you finish 3 sets of 295 lb squats, there’s major suckage of wind.

What does that really mean "flattening the curve?" I'm sure the virus hasn't disappeared because less people catch it. Unless we have six feet and masks indefinitely, I'd assume the curve will go up and down depending on what is considered a case and whether whomever is taking note of deaths are considering them from COVID itself or dying of another condition aggravated by COVID (or vis versa).

Yes, I agree with and see that. On a curve graph the number of cases declined from the peak to the point that very few new infections or hospitalizations occurred. So, cases were their highest around the beginning of April, but by the time May rolled around the number of cases dropped considerably and stayed low. Not non-existent, but very low. And yet here we are, with Gov. Horsetooth (he makes my skin crawl) extending the health crisis month by month... 30 days at a time... from April to November. From what I’m seeing once the election is certified and Hidin’ Biden is officially declared the winner, and not by the media, the restrictions on us will evaporate.

 

[shunyadragon]

I said it makes sense people have churches in a crisis situation. I haven't read I made a claim that being in a church (or whatever building) is a safe haven from people spreading germs. That's just the nature of human contact: risk of exposure. The nature of the church is to build solace in a religious setting. Adults who need that solace in a crisis situation takes risk (as we all do when we go in public) of catching diseases. I also said COVID isn't a gas and it isn't something you can drop dead from catching it (thank god). So, of course it's serious; and, people are adults.

Still You have not clarified the problem of how church services can be safe and not spread COVID-19 and contribute to the debiitating and suffering of COVID-19 as is presently a main vector for COVID-19.

Not all people are adults, and the fatality rate is very high.

Any place where there is a gathering of people will have potential to spread different viruses. I can't figure why it would be misleading. Maybe germs isn't the right word?

COVID-19 cannot be just compared other viruses and diseases. It is ot whether people gather it is how they gather.



[quote[ Extreme unrealistic extremes? [/quote] That is not all yu said read your first post.

I just said the church services are important in crisis situations
People spread viruses (any type) when in close contact
I'm indifferent to the situation as I don't take up everything I read as is
People make their own choices
It is sad that people gather "and" my personal feelings aren't harshly directed to an adult's individual choice to congregate for religious peace in a time of panic.

You just said . . . nor personal feelings are not at issue here it is COVID-19

 

[Unveiled Artist]

Still You have not clarified the problem of how church services can be safe and not spread COVID-19 and contribute to the debiitating and suffering of COVID-19 as is presently a main vector for COVID-19.

Not all people are adults, and the fatality rate is very high.

I never ever said that church services can be safe and not spread COVID.

I said that church services are important and that any small area in any building lets people in it be in risk of spreading the virus (I'm not sure if you're reading what I'm saying)

Are you reading into what I'm saying???

COVID-19 cannot be just compared other viruses and diseases. It is ot whether people gather it is how they gather.

It is whether people gather. If they do, they put people at risk. If they don't, no one is at risk. How they gather they said that we need a six feet apart rule. Some adults agree others do not. They put themselves at risk. I do compare it to other contagious viruses because it is all a part of life. There isn't a "special" virus. New not special.

[quote[ Extreme unrealistic extremes?

That is not all yu said read your first post.[/QUOTE]

You said Extreme unrealistic extremes. I was wondering where you got that?

You just said . . . nor personal feelings are not at issue here it is COVID-19

I never said what I'm saying is absolute fact. I never quoted any statistics. If you're not in a group, you can't spread it. If you are, then you can. I feel church services are important in a crisis. Adults put themselves at risk. It is sad. I'm indifferent about it insofar like other illnesses, I can't tell "adults" wait to do. I can agree or disagree but I'll never belittle them.

 

[shunyadragon]

Source? I’d like to read that.

[cite=[URL='https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/data-shows-clusters-of-covid-cases-linked-to-church-services/19347033/']Data shows clusters of COVID cases linked to church services :: WRAL.com[/URL]]

Data shows clusters of COVID cases linked to church services

LUMBERTON, N.C. — In Robeson County, where the rate of coronavirus cases and deaths per 100,000 is among the highest in the state, health leaders are asking for help from the religious community to get the spread in check.

Melissa Packer, assistant health director for the county, said cases of coronavirus are up 120% from three weeks ago.

Dr. Robin Peace, president of medical staff at Southeastern Health, said she is aware of dozens of cases of the coronavirus connected to church services. Sources said at least four churches have seen clusters of cases – defined by the state as five or more linked cases.

"I'm seeing patients on a regular basis that they got it going to church and worshiping and not wearing a mask," Peace said.

WRAL News has learned East Lumberton Baptist Church has seen 40 cases over the course of the pandemic, although none of those cases is still active. Four people from the congregation have died. The church has since moved services outside and has been taking precautions.

Peace has been campaigning for awareness and caution in the county, where she says residents are not doing enough to protect themselves and their neighbors.

This North Carolina map of COVID-19 cases is updated daily based on cumulative numbers of county-level COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by the N.C. Department of Health and Human Services. Click on or hover over any highlighted county in the map to see details of the cases in that county. Darker shaded counties have the highest number of cases. NOTE: As of Sept. 28, the data on this map includes cases and deaths identified both through PCR and antigen tests.

Source: N.C. DHHS
Graphic: Alex Phillips & Tyler Dukes, WRAL

"We need to do the work because our children are suffering. We're suffering as a community, and I've always been afraid that our hospital system might be overwhelmed," Peace said.

At Southeastern Health, 18 people were being treated for COVID-19 Wednesday, and another six patients were suspected of having the virus and waiting for test results. The facility can accommodate 48 coronavirus patients.

To date, more than 1,000 cases of coronavirus and 13 COVID-19 deaths were linked to religious gatherings statewide, with the number of church-related clusters on the rise since September, according to data published Wednesday by DHHS.

Religious gatherings were third, behind meat-packing plants and colleges and universities, as a source of the greatest community spread, according to a new report on the origin of clusters of coronavirus cases issued by NCDHHS on Wednesday.

“As community spread of COVID-19 continues in North Carolina, clusters of cases are being identified in workplaces, educational settings and many other community locations,” DHHS stated in a release.

Meat and poultry processing plants have the highest number of cases reported since May, at 3,841, and 19 deaths.

Colleges or universities are second on the list, with 1,902 cases

Religious gatherings have seen the largest increase since late September.

More to follow . . .

 

[shunyadragon]

I never ever said that church services can be safe and not spread COVID.

I said that church services are important and that any small area in any building lets people in it be in risk of spreading the virus (I'm not sure if you're reading what I'm saying)

Are you reading into what I'm saying???

Yes, but you still have not responded.

Still You have not clarified the problem of how church services can be safe and not spread COVID-19 and contribute to the debiitating and suffering of COVID-19 as is presently a main vector for COVID-19.

 

[shunyadragon]

I was really excited that a clear study had been made as a scientific slam dunk to back the obvious common sense of social distancing...
then I realized it was only a simulation.

IT was NOT a simulation.!

More to follow . . .

 

[Jainarayan]

"I'm seeing patients on a regular basis that they got it going to church and worshiping and not wearing a mask," Peace said.

Meat and poultry processing plants have the highest number of cases reported since May, at 3,841, and 19 deaths.

Colleges or universities are second on the list, with 1,902 cases

That’s not the venue per se, that’s non-compliance by the congregations and the church leadership, plant management and employees, university administration and students. Why churches, meat processing plants and universities in particular? I have no idea, but we have crowds in supermarkets, malls, the big box stores none of which are reported to see a rise in cases. Our temple takes strict precautions per state mandates, the devotees follow this, and they have no problems. We’re going to shut down food processing plants?

 

[Jainarayan]

how church services can be safe and not spread COVID-19

Isn’t that what masks, social distancing and disinfectants are for? Are you suggesting those don’t work?

 

[Unveiled Artist]

Still You have not clarified the problem of how church services can be safe and not spread COVID-19 and contribute to the debiitating and suffering of COVID-19 as is presently a main vector for COVID-19.

I never made a statement that church services can be safe and not spread COVID and contribute to the debilitating and suffering of COVID...

So, what am I clarifying?

 

[Ponder This]

IT was NOT a simulation.!

More to follow . . .

Oh? Sorry if I misunderstood, but the OP says:

Physicists Use New Model to Demonstrate Decrease in Infection Rates Through Social Distancing

and

Simulations based on a new model for the spread of epidemics show the decrease in infection rates as a result of social distancing.

A clarification of the basis for the claim is appreciated.

In the meantime, I remain of the opinion that social distancing likely has an effect on the spread of the virus.
I suppose another question is: Does the model suggest to us any minimum distance threshold for infection?
If we want to be 95% certain that we won't be infected by another person... what is the minimum distance for that?

 

[shunyadragon]

Oh? Sorry if I misunderstood, but the OP says:

and

A clarification of the basis for the claim is appreciated.

In the meantime, I remain of the opinion that social distancing likely has an effect on the spread of the virus.
I suppose another question is: Does the model suggest to us any minimum distance threshold for infection?
If we want to be 95% certain that we won't be infected by another person... what is the minimum distance for that?

Read the article carefully. What is called a simulation or modeling is the basis of future projections of the spread of COVID-19

From the source that the actual count of the origin of the tracking of cases indicates:

"To date, moreca than 1,000 cases of coronavirus and 13 COVID-19 deaths were linked to religious gatherings statewide, with the number of church-related clusters on the rise since September, according to data published Wednesday by DHHS.

Religious gatherings were third, behind meat-packing plants and colleges and universities, as a source of the greatest community spread, according to a new report on the origin of clusters of coronavirus cases issued by NCDHHS on Wednesday.

“As community spread of COVID-19 continues in North Carolina, clusters of cases are being identified in workplaces, educational settings and many other community locations,” DHHS stated in a release."

This for North Carolina a very conservative Christian state in the rural counties. The danger is apparent. Colleges involve youngest population, meat packing plants the next, and churches invovle the oldest average population and the highest risk of fatalities and severe cases.

As I said, "More to follow."