Poland Stops Providing Ukraine with New Weapons, More Calls in Some EU States to Stop Backing Ukraine

[Debater Slayer]

Amid a row over grain shipments, Poland has said it will stop delivering new weapons to Ukraine:

BRUSSELS — Russian President Vladimir Putin has made little secret of his plan to keep up the pressure on Ukraine until Western resolve breaks. More than 500 days into his war of aggression, he now has reason to believe things are working out the way he hoped, even if events are not playing out how he might have imagined.

Governments in Poland, Estonia, Slovakia and others in Central and Eastern Europe have been among Kyiv’s staunchest allies since the first day of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Beyond sending weapons and welcoming millions of Ukrainian refugees, they have been Ukraine’s loudest advocates in the West, pushing for a tough line against Moscow in the face of reluctance from countries like France and Germany.

But as the leaders of some of these ride-or-die allies face reelection battles or other domestic challenges, and governments get nervous about the impact of Ukraine one day joining the European Union, that support is starting to waver.

The most striking example is Poland, whose Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced on Wednesday that he would stop delivering new weapons to Ukraine. The statement marked a stunning escalation in a dispute between Kyiv and its closest EU neighbor over grain shipments Warsaw claims are undercutting production from Polish farmers ahead of a parliamentary election on October 15.

“Ukraine realizes that in the last months, they’re not bordering Poland, they’re bordering Polish elections,” said Ivan Krastev, chair of the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia, Bulgaria. So for now, “the votes of a hundred thousand Polish farmers are more important for the government than what is going to be the cost for Ukraine. And we’re going to see this happening in many places,” he added.

Europe blinks amid calls to stop backing Ukraine

On its other eastern front, Kyiv’s hawkish allies are going wobbly.

www.politico.eu

Support from Estonia and Slovakia is also at risk of considerably waning, although many EU states are still backing Ukraine as much as they have done since the start of the war:

Then there’s Slovakia. The Central European country has been among Europe’s biggest backers of Ukraine, but elections on September 30 could turn it into a skeptic overnight.

“If you have a society where only 40 percent support arms delivery to Ukraine and your government offers support almost at the level of the Baltics, that creates a backlash,” said Milan Nič, a fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations.

Robert Fico, the country’s populist former prime minister, is campaigning on a pro-Russian, anti-American platform that opposes sanctions against Russian individuals and further arms deliveries to Kyiv. He’s on course to win the election, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls.

To be sure, Ukraine still has plenty of strong backers in Europe. Lithuania, Latvia, Romania, Sweden, Finland and others remain strongly committed, and French President Emmanuel Macron has recently swung strongly behind Kyiv. Some analysts also downplay the importance of Poland and Slovakia’s role at the moment, pointing out that there aren’t many weapons left to deliver in the countries’ armories.

Kyiv, for now, seems relaxed. Speaking at a press conference after an event in Brussels last Friday, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration Olha Stefanishyna downplayed the static between Kyiv and some of its erstwhile friends: “We have a strong commitment and a political confirmation that none of the political processes will affect the ongoing support,” she said.

Unfortunately, it seems that leaders in a few EU states may be prioritizing political convenience and votes above helping Ukraine fend off the Russian invasion, which I find sad but not surprising given the interest-driven nature of international politics. Hopefully this won't end up having a significant impact on Ukraine's efforts to defend its territory.

What are your thoughts on these developments? Do you think they will have a moderate-to-major impact or only turn out to be relatively insignificant in the grand scheme of things?

 

[PureX]

How much military aid does this actually represent? ... Not much. Especially of the type that is effective on a modern battlefield. It's a tempest in a teapot being way over-played by those supporting Russian conquest.

 

[Estro Felino]

How much military aid does this actually represent? ... Not much. Especially of the type that is effective on a modern battlefield. It's a tempest in a teapot being way over-played by those supporting Russian conquest.

Isn't the US the first world power?
The US alone can provide Ukrainians warfare.
You could count Europeans out.

 

[Estro Felino]

Unfortunately, it seems that leaders in a few EU states may be prioritizing political convenience and votes above helping Ukraine fend off the Russian invasion, which I find sad but not surprising given the interest-driven nature of international politics. Hopefully this won't end up having a significant impact on Ukraine's efforts to defend its territory.

I don't think so.
The US military contribution to Ukraine is much more significant.
The European one is irrelevant.

What are your thoughts on these developments? Do you think they will have a moderate-to-major impact or only turn out to be relatively insignificant in the grand scheme of things?

The only result will be that finally people will realize that Europeans won't and cannot have a warlike approach in the settlement of international disputes.
There is the diplomatic approach, also through economic sanctions on Russia.

 

[PureX]

Isn't the US the first world power?
The US alone can provide Ukrainians warfare.
You could count Europeans out.

Yes, but we don't want it to look that way. We don't want the appearance of a proxy war against Russia. We don't even want it to BE a proxy war against Russia. We want the free world to recognaize the danger of this kind of blatant conquest and to actively fight against it, so as to discourage any nation with such designs in the future.

I like the fact that warfare, for whatever purpose it's engaged in, is becoming unwinable. As it will perhaps finally sink into our collective heads that it's just not going to be worth the cost.

 

[Stevicus]

What are your thoughts on these developments? Do you think they will have a moderate-to-major impact or only turn out to be relatively insignificant in the grand scheme of things?

The longer this goes on, the more people will grow weary of it.

Even in the U.S., the cracks are starting to show: Paul will hold up any spending stopgap that includes Ukraine funding

Rand Paul is right about Ukraine aid - Washington Examiner

Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) took to the Senate floor Wednesday to voice his opposition to sending further aid to the Ukrainian military. “I will not consent to expedited passage of any spending bill that provides any more American aid to Ukraine,” Paul said. “It is as if no one has noticed that we have no

www.washingtonexaminer.com

“I will not consent to expedited passage of any spending bill that provides any more American aid to Ukraine,” Paul said. “It is as if no one has noticed that we have no extra money to send to Ukraine. Our deficit this year will exceed 1.5 trillion dollars. Borrowing money from China to send it to Ukraine makes no sense.”

Continuing his vocal skepticism of America’s involvement in the war, Paul told Fox News’ Maria Bartoromo on Thursday morning what too many are willing to sweep under the rug: "Ukraine banned the political parties, they’ve invaded churches, they’ve arrested priests, so no, it isn’t a democracy, it’s a corrupt regime."

An overwhelming majority of members of both chambers of Congress support sending more cash and weapons to Ukraine, despite the fact that American taxpayers have already aided the eastern European nation’s war effort to the tune of $113 billion. Paul, however, is not alone in his skepticism.

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) said to Fox’s Laura Ingraham, “We shouldn’t be spending a dime more on Ukraine. We need an accounting of every dime that has been spent so far. And I’m just tired of hearing the president say over and over that we have got to invest — this is an investment in the future of every nation. What about our nation? It’s not an investment in our future, in our people, in our jobs. That needs to be the priority.”

It appears that the initial fearmongering about Russia's supposed plans to conquer Europe and dominate the world is starting to wane. They can't even conquer Ukraine, so the early fears that they would attack Poland or the Baltics don't seem like they'll ever come to fruition. So, the original reasons for sending aid to Ukraine don't really seem to apply anymore. Russia has reached the end of the line, and they can't go any further.

Americans will tend to expect American politicians to care about America. "What about our nation?" is a question we'll see more and more of, if this continues. This could also have an effect on next year's elections. The Democrats in 2024 could end up like the Democrats in 1968, when the party faced disarray and dissension, all over a war that was 10,000 miles away.

 

[Evangelicalhumanist]

I don't think so.
The US military contribution to Ukraine is much more significant.
The European one is irrelevant.


The only result will be that finally people will realize that Europeans won't and cannot have a warlike approach in the settlement of international disputes.
There is the diplomatic approach, also through economic sanctions on Russia.

Providing support to a nation under fire, without actually entering the fray yourself, is hardly "warlike."

And do not be deceived -- if Ukraine falls because of lack of support from the west, Russia, China and perhaps others will be much emboldened in their desires to enrich themselves at others' expense.

 

[Debater Slayer]

Isn't the US the first world power?
The US alone can provide Ukrainians warfare.
You could count Europeans out.

I don't think so.
The US military contribution to Ukraine is much more significant.
The European one is irrelevant.


The only result will be that finally people will realize that Europeans won't and cannot have a warlike approach in the settlement of international disputes.
There is the diplomatic approach, also through economic sanctions on Russia.

The article states that only a few European countries have become less supportive of Ukraine's war effort. Why are you talking about this as if all Europeans had the same views?

 

[Estro Felino]

Providing support to a nation under fire, without actually entering the fray yourself, is hardly "warlike."

And do not be deceived -- if Ukraine falls because of lack of support for the west, Russia, China and perhaps others will be much emboldened in their desires to enrich themselves at others' expense.

Ukraine will not fall.
Ukraine has applied to join the EU.

 

[Estro Felino]

The article states that only a few European countries have become less supportive of Ukraine's war effort. Why are you talking about this as if all Europeans had the same views?

In France there are anti-NATO demonstrations every other day.
In Germany they are sending less and less warfare.

If the narrative is that it was Ukrainians who blew up the two pipelines, it's obvious Germans won't be so solicitous in helping them.

 

[Debater Slayer]

The longer this goes on, the more people will grow weary of it.

Even in the U.S., the cracks are starting to show: Paul will hold up any spending stopgap that includes Ukraine funding

Rand Paul is right about Ukraine aid - Washington Examiner

Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) took to the Senate floor Wednesday to voice his opposition to sending further aid to the Ukrainian military. “I will not consent to expedited passage of any spending bill that provides any more American aid to Ukraine,” Paul said. “It is as if no one has noticed that we have no

www.washingtonexaminer.com

It appears that the initial fearmongering about Russia's supposed plans to conquer Europe and dominate the world is starting to wane. They can't even conquer Ukraine, so the early fears that they would attack Poland or the Baltics don't seem like they'll ever come to fruition. So, the original reasons for sending aid to Ukraine don't really seem to apply anymore. Russia has reached the end of the line, and they can't go any further.

Americans will tend to expect American politicians to care about America. "What about our nation?" is a question we'll see more and more of, if this continues. This could also have an effect on next year's elections. The Democrats in 2024 could end up like the Democrats in 1968, when the party faced disarray and dissension, all over a war that was 10,000 miles away.

I think comparing Ukraine to other potential targets for Russian aggression doesn't necessarily reflect those other targets' situation, though, since some of them are much smaller than Ukraine and militarily weaker. I also find Rand Paul a highly unreliable figure to dictate such decisions, especially after his ill-timed whipping up of unevidenced accusations and conspiracy theories about Anthony Fauci when the US was being rocked by a novel and unfamiliar pandemic disease. He seems to me to have a major ax to grind and a chip on his shoulder that both prevent him from being a sound judge when it comes to many issues.

The US' support for Ukraine is far more consequential than support from Poland, Slovakia, or Estonia, of course, so I think the next presidential election in the US could well prove decisive for the trajectory of the war after 2024.

 

[Kathryn]

For some perspective:

Ukraine Support Tracker - A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine

The Ukraine Support Tracker lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid promised by governments to Ukraine.

www.ifw-kiel.de

According to the Kiel Institute in Germany, the EU actually gives more monetary support to Ukraine than the US does. Also, Poland is in the top 10 countries giving aid, right behind Canada. So this isn't small news or potatoes - LOL.

 

[Debater Slayer]

For some perspective:

Ukraine Support Tracker - A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine

The Ukraine Support Tracker lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid promised by governments to Ukraine.

www.ifw-kiel.de

According to the Kiel Institute in Germany, the EU actually gives more monetary support to Ukraine than the US does. Also, Poland is in the top 10 countries giving aid, right behind Canada. So this isn't small news or potatoes - LOL.

What's the "LOL" for there? I'm not sure what part of the news it's directed at.

 

[Estro Felino]

For some perspective:

Ukraine Support Tracker - A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine

The Ukraine Support Tracker lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid promised by governments to Ukraine.

www.ifw-kiel.de

According to the Kiel Institute in Germany, the EU actually gives more monetary support to Ukraine than the US does. Also, Poland is in the top 10 countries giving aid, right behind Canada. So this isn't small news or potatoes - LOL.

It's obvious, since they applied to join the EU.
But it's not warfare.

 

[Kathryn]

It's financial aid and it can be used in many ways, including weaponry, etc.

 

[Kathryn]

What's the "LOL" for there? I'm not sure what part of the news it's directed at.

It's directed only at the part about potatoes, not at any part of the actual news.

 

[Augustus]

Amid a row over grain shipments, Poland has said it will stop delivering new weapons to Ukraine:

See how it plays out.

Poland want weapons from the US and compromise from Ukraine regarding grain.

Could easily just be the creation of leverage.

The Polish government hates Russia as the leading figure of the ruling party thinks they killed his brother.

Ukraine is a useful buffer zone.

I’d wait and see before rushing to judgement one way or the other.

 

[Estro Felino]

It's financial aid and it can be used in many ways, including weaponry, etc.

From 2024 on it will be the EU which will impose how to spend that money.
And surely not on weaponry...since the priorities are others.

EU plans up to €72 billion in aid for Ukraine

Money for the war-torn country would come with conditions over anti-corruption and structural reforms.

www.politico.eu

 

[Kathryn]

From 2024 on it will be the EU which will impose how to spend that money.
And surely not on weaponry...since the priorities are others.

Sorry, but I will get my information from places like the Kiel Institute or Reuters or heck, even Al Jazeera before I get it from less reputable sources. Not going back through the whole thread to find out where this information came from, because I've got to go to work.

 

[Augustus]

The US' support for Ukraine is far more consequential than support from Poland, Slovakia, or Estonia, of course, so I think the next presidential election in the US could well prove decisive for the trajectory of the war after 2024.

Support from former communist states was very important as they had similar weapons systems.

Western countries had better weapons but folk needed training and they are often more resource intensive, far harder to maintain and more complex.

I guess they have already donated many of the older systems as supplies are finite, but they were certainly important.

But yes, overall, US support is key, especially as these countries want a good deal on US weapons to replace the donated ones