Climate Impacts 'Overwhelming'

[Bunyip]

I deal with reality...the planet's temperature regulation is working fine...the observed temperatures are good for humanity as well as the plants. The agw alarmist propaganda is failing,,,the models are not tracking the observations...therefore they are scientifically wrong and are destined to be sent to the scrap heap.

So don't pull some number out of a computer simulation of future temperature and deal with it as though it is as real as the observed numbers I provide...which is all I can do.

You are the one saying that the number is not significant, so I am just asking you to show why?

 

[Valjean]

Our Earth is warming.

Earth's average temperature has risen by 1.4°F over the past century, and is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5°F over the next hundred years. Small changes in the average temperature of the planet can translate to large and potentially dangerous shifts in climate and weather.

Basics | Climate Change | US EPA

And all 10 of the hottest years on record have come after 1998

Scientists have declared 2014 officially the hottest year on record.

2014 Was the Hottest Year on Record

 

[Ben Dhyan]

You are the one saying that the number is not significant, so I am just asking you to show why?

Because 2 to 3 degrees C you mention is only the output of a flawed computer model...GIGO...it is not real except as a prophecy.....a prophecy based on computer models which already show a increasing temperature deviation from reality as the 21st century unfolds...

 

[Ben Dhyan]

Basics | Climate Change | US EPA


2014 Was the Hottest Year on Record

So nothing you link to changes the truth of what I have posted....the Antarctic ice is at record levels, and the global temperature has increased just 0.7 C since records began, and average global temperature has been quite steady over the last 18 years...

 

[Bunyip]

Because 2 to 3 degrees C you mention is only the output of a flawed computer model...GIGO...it is not real except as a prophecy.....a prophecy based on computer models which already show a increasing temperature deviation from reality as the 21st century unfolds...

Of course models differ from reality - they are models. What is confusing you there?

 

[Ben Dhyan]

Of course models differ from reality - they are models. What is confusing you there?

So are weather forecasts based on models....we only know if they did well after the fact...when the actual observed temperatures can be compared to the original forecast...yes?

So it is with agw climate models, and I am say that already as of 2015, the observed temperatures to date in the 21st century are much less than the IPCC models predicted which you are quoting...now there has been no statistically significant warming over the last 15 years...so if it continues as it has, there will be less than 1 C by the year 2100...

 

[Valjean]

How do you explain the opening Northwest passage or the melting glaciers all over the world? More scientific conspiracy?
Kilimanjaro, February '93, and seven years later:

So are weather forecasts based on models....we only know if they did well after the fact...when the actual observed temperatures can be compared to the original forecast...yes?

Climate and weather are very different things, Ben d

 

[Bunyip]

So are weather forecasts based on models....we only know if they did well after the fact...when the actual observed temperatures can be compared to the original forecast...yes?

So it is with agw climate models, and I am say that already as of 2015, the observed temperatures to date in the 21st century are much less than the IPCC models predicted which you are quoting...now there has been no statistically significant warming over the last 15 years...so if it continues as it has, there will be less than 1 C by the year 2100...

And what effect would 1c have Ben?

 

[Ben Dhyan]

How do you explain the opening Northwest passage or the melting glaciers all over the world? More scientific conspiracy?
Kilimanjaro, February '93, and seven years later:

Climate and weather are very different things, Ben d

Look, there is no end of claims about signs of agw, i am not disputing the IPCC observed warming of 0.7 C....though I don't believe it was primarily caused by humans. The climate is changing because it always is changing, there never has been a time when the climate was not changing....you can find places like Antarctica that is colder than before, and places like the Arctic that is warmer than before, and in these regions, regional differences the opposite of that....but it doesn't prove that the average temperature had increased more than 0.7 C, nor does it prove that global temperature is going to get warmer in the future....they have been steady for about the last 18 years...

 

[Bunyip]

Look, there is no end of claims about signs of agw, i am not disputing the IPCC observed warming of 0.7 C....though I don't believe it was primarily caused by humans. The climate is changing because it always is changing, there never has been a time when the climate was not changing....you can find places like Antarctica that is colder than before, and places like the Arctic that is warmer than before, and in these regions, regional differences the opposite of that....but it doesn't prove that the average temperature had increased more than 0.7 C, nor does it prove that global temperature is going to get warmer in the future....they have been steady for about the last 18 years...

You missed my question Ben. I asked you what effect 1c would have? Please show me the data.

 

[Ben Dhyan]

And what effect would 1c have Ben?

Probably a better condition for humanity than a cooling of 1C...even now, more people die each year of cold than of heat...but hey...dealing in hypothetical 'what ifs' is mostly a waste of time..so drop it already....

 

[Bunyip]

Probably a better condition for humanity than a cooling of 1C...even now, more people die each year of cold than of heat...but hey...dealing in hypothetical 'what ifs' is mostly a waste of time..so drop it already....

Probably? The scientists offer me decades of research and a mountain of data - you offer 'probably won't be a problem'?

Is that right? And you also think 'what if's? Are a waste of time correct?

 

[Jake1001]

Btw, when the IPCC calculated average global temperature increase over the last 135 years since records began in 1880, is plotted, it looks like this....scary yes?

Who would have ever thought it could have caused all this..... warmlist



Btw, agw alarmists generally don't believe this graph when they first see it, the typical hype they hear about agw causes them to imagine global temperatures rapidly climbing out of control....

Hehe, the oldest data manipulation trick in the book, plot a 0.7 degree variation on a 100 degree scale. It looks like nothing. Could you show us the data on a scale that goes from 57 to 59 degrees ?....

 

[Ben Dhyan]

Probably? The scientists offer me decades of research and a mountain of data - you offer 'probably won't be a problem'?

Is that right? And you also think 'what if's? Are a waste of time correct?

I deal in observed reality, see that graph I posted above, it ain't getting statistically significantly warmer over the last 18 years.....you deal in scare tactics from GIGO agenda driven computer models ....ooooh the temperature could be 2 C hotter in a hundred years from now....we're all going to burn up and die!!!!

 

[Ben Dhyan]

Hehe, the oldest data manipulation trick in the book, plot a 0.7 degree variation on a 100 degree scale. It looks like nothing. Could you show us the data on a scale that goes from 57 to 59 degrees ?....

Actually it was posted that way because the agw alarmists post the same GISS temp data as an anomaly graph on a scale of +_ 1C degree to make it look scary. What's good for the goose....

 

[Bunyip]

I deal in observed reality, see that graph I posted above, it ain't getting statistically significantly warmer over the last 18 years.....you deal in scare tactics from GIGO agenda driven computer models ....ooooh the temperature could be 2 C hotter in a hundred years from now....we're all going to burn up and die!!!!

What is a statistically significant increase? Please give your data. What will a 1c increase do for example? So far you just said 'probably' not much. Can I see your math please?

 

[Ben Dhyan]

What is a statistically significant increase? Please give your data. What will a 1c increase do for example? So far you just said 'probably' not much. Can I see your math please?

It's RSS temperature anomaly used by the IPCC...you seem to be incoherent...what math do you want to see?

 

[Bunyip]

It's RSS temperature anomaly used by the IPCC...what math do you want to see?

I want to see your calculation for exactly what WOULD be a significant change please.

 

[Ben Dhyan]

I want to see your calculation for exactly what WOULD be a significant change please.

I see, your incoherency is a result of your lack of education.....you just don't understand what the term 'statistically significant' means in the context of the relevant graph.
What it means is that when the temperature measurements over a period, in this particular case 18 years of data, show a temperature trend of a certain amount, but that the margin of error for the measurements themselves is equal to or greater than the trend amount, than the apparent trend is considered statistically insignificant and thus can be discounted as being significant for projection.

 

[Bunyip]

I see, your incoherency is a result of your lack of education.....you just don't understand what the term 'statistically significant' means in the context of the relevant graph.
What it means is that when the temperature measurements over a period, in this particular case 18 years of data, show a temperature trend of a certain amount, but that the margin of error for the measurements themselves is equal to or greater than the trend amount, than the apparent trend is considered statistically insignificant and thus can be discounted as being significant for projection.

No, according to the mainstream science there is a trend. Hence I am asking you, hypothetically what would be a significant change in temperature?
It is a perfectly reasonable question.

So far you have just said that 1c is not significant, but have not argued why - nor have you identified what a significant increase would be and why.