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epronovost
Well-Known Member
China doesn't have the military capability for a full-on invasion at the moment. While Taiwan is very well armed and does possess a military, it only has a population of 23 million inhabitant. China is simply to large a behemoth to be defeated by it alone in the advent of an invasion. Though, Taiwan could count on some regional allies like Japan, Vietnam, South Korea and the US to help defend it. China is more likely to want to bully Taiwan into accepting its authority than outright invasion.
Sounds right. From what I understand, PRC's jets going into Taiwan's ADIZ (not the same as its airspace) and all its 'You're gonna be ours again' talk is just PRC attempting to sway public opinion in Taiwan. I think what PRC wants to do is prompt the Taiwanese to vote for politicians who desire unification. Also, from what I understand, the general public in Taiwan does not take PRC seriously whereas Americans do.
What world events would clear the way for PRC to take Taiwan? How could PRC go about bringing those events to pass? What would be its next most logical steps?
1. Convince its population that Taiwan belongs to China.
2. ?? What ??
I'd say the next steps will be to interfere in the politics of Taiwan, to work to separate Taiwan from alliances...possibly to assassinate or character assassinate resistance in Taiwan, to attempt to de-legitimize the popularity of democracy.
Then after time and pressure have been applied to Taiwan they will offer a special deal -- a deal to make it a democratic state but with special trade ties to China and sharing the same currency.
1. Convince its population that Taiwan belongs to China.
2. ?? What ??
I'd say the next steps will be to interfere in the politics of Taiwan, to work to separate Taiwan from alliances...possibly to assassinate or character assassinate resistance in Taiwan, to attempt to de-legitimize the popularity of democracy.
Then after time and pressure have been applied to Taiwan they will offer a special deal -- a deal to make it a democratic state but with special trade ties to China and sharing the same currency.
epronovost
Well-Known Member
From what I know, a lot of people in Taiwan are worried about the PRC, especially the independentists who are getting more and more numerous and behind the drive for the democratization of the island. What worries them the most isn't the saber rattling though as this is mostly political theatre intended for the PRC's population and the rest of the world, but the political maneuvers by communist China to isolate Taiwan and prevent any form of official recognition within international institutions like the UN, the WHO and many others.
ronki23
Well-Known Member
What's ADIZ ?
epronovost
Well-Known Member
Air Defense Interdiction Zone. AKA fly at that point on a plane without authorization and you are treated as an invading force.
Brinne
Active Member
I don't think a traditional invasion of Taiwan is really in the interest of the PRC; as much as they posture in that region of the world. It would cause too many issues with their international allies, specifically the US. And China and the US have a very uncomfortable but dependent relationship on each other economically so it'd stand there'd be far more to lose than to gain.
It's more of a situation of them puffing out their chest and trying to assert influence in the region. I think posturing and economic pressure is definitely to be expected but a boots on the ground invasion isn't.
It's more of a situation of them puffing out their chest and trying to assert influence in the region. I think posturing and economic pressure is definitely to be expected but a boots on the ground invasion isn't.
China will bide its time until its military advantage over
every other power in the region would overwhelm any
defense. This appears to be their strategy in stages...
1) Express determined & belligerent intent.
2) Demonstrate military capability.
3) Develop cutting edge capability well into the future.
4) Strike when optimum.
Caution!
Divining China's intentions & predicting its
actions does not mean that I condone them.
(There...that should satisfy the bozos.)
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Twilight Hue
Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
Imagine this turning out to be a prophecy that comes true.
I just discovered that China has no claim to Taiwan or Tibet.
Why?
Because Mongolia has a claim to China (& more).
Found on the internet....
The Mongolian Empire was the largest bordering land empire in the history of the world. Through the 13th and 14th centuries, the Empire stretched from Central and Eastern Europe, down to the Sea of Japan, northward into part of the Arctic, westward towards the Carpathian and Levant Mountains, into the mainland of Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent, and the Iranian Plateau.
Why?
Because Mongolia has a claim to China (& more).
Found on the internet....
The Mongolian Empire was the largest bordering land empire in the history of the world. Through the 13th and 14th centuries, the Empire stretched from Central and Eastern Europe, down to the Sea of Japan, northward into part of the Arctic, westward towards the Carpathian and Levant Mountains, into the mainland of Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent, and the Iranian Plateau.
Kooky
Freedom from Sanity
The PRC essentially inherited the claims of the Republic of China, who in turn stakes their claims on the old borders of Qing dynasty Imperial China:I just discovered that China has no claim to Taiwan or Tibet.
Why?
Because Mongolia has a claim to China (& more).
Found on the internet....
The Mongolian Empire was the largest bordering land empire in the history of the world. Through the 13th and 14th centuries, the Empire stretched from Central and Eastern Europe, down to the Sea of Japan, northward into part of the Arctic, westward towards the Carpathian and Levant Mountains, into the mainland of Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent, and the Iranian Plateau.
But the Mongols have the right to claim China,The PRC essentially inherited the claims of the Republic of China, who in turn stakes their claims on the old borders of Qing dynasty Imperial China:
which should submit to Mongolia's rule.
Their claim pre-dates the Qing Dynasty.
And the Dutch have an earlier claim to
Taiwan than does China.
And the ROC has a stronger claim to be
the singular government for all of China.
So what is China's real justification for
wanting ownership of Taiwan? Desire.
And belief that they can take it by force.
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epronovost
Well-Known Member
Neither the Dutch nor the Mongolian claim ownership of either Taiwan or the rest of China. Japan also had ownership of Taiwan, but lost it after WWII. China's legal justification for its ownership of Taiwan was that it was part of the Chinese territory during the Civil War and that, now, as the recognized government of China, Taiwan is nothing more than a rebellious province. Of course history played differently and now Taiwan is an independent nation, but with no international recognition because of China's influence and power. As for Tibet, the annexation was completely illegal by international law, but when we recognized the PRC as the official government of China, we also recognized its sovereign territory including Tibet, but not Taiwan. In other words, they committed a crime and got away with it because they are powerful and international relations are very "anarcho-capitalist" in structure.
Of course they don't. T'would be folly because of
China's determination & military power.
I only point out that some claims are arguably better
than China's claim on Taiwan
The Dutch were on Taiwan long before the Japanese.
So if a country claims historical occupancy as evidence
of ownership, Japan is sucking hind teat.
The government of Taiwan was the one overthrown
by Mao. So Taiwan would have a stronger claim
on China than vice versa.
China is more the rebellious area than is Taiwan.
And Mongolia has an even earlier claim.
The upshot of all this is that Chinas is simply making
threatening a land grab by military force, with no
cromulent justification....just desire.
epronovost
Well-Known Member
I don't think you understand the international statutes on territorial claim. That doesn't help your comprehension of the issue. First a claim must be continuous to be valid. If you drop a claim, you can't pick it up later. Second that claim to have a semblance of viability must not only be continuous, but also be shown that your nation had a continuous investment in that territory. In the case of Mongolia, their claim of ownership to the territory of China was dropped by a series of treaties following the fall the Yuan dynasty. Mongolia didn't rule over Taiwan and never had. The government of Mao did indeed overthrown the Nationalists and was considered as rebellious until the 70's where it was recognized as the legitimate government of "mainland China", including the illegally acquired Tibet, but excluding Taiwan and Hong Kong. Hong Kong was then returned to China in the late 90's and Taiwan remains contested though a de facto independent state and its government has lost any international legitimacy when its rival was recognized as the legitimate government of China. Officially, the government of Taiwan has abandoned its claim of sovereignty to mainland China in the 80's.
The Dutch have colonized Taiwan, but gave it to the Chinese during the Qing dynasty thus abandoning all claim on the island and its population which was mostly composed of immigrated Chinese and natives from Taiwan. Since the Dutch have abandoned their claim century ago and, much like the Mongolian, have no interest nor influence on this parcel of land, their potential claim to it would be worthless from a legal standpoint. All of this is even more ridiculous by the fact that neither of these nations can claim such territory by force.
The big question is is the PRC legitimate in its claim of ownership of Taiwan and the answer is no. When the PRC was recognized as the legitimate government of mainland China, at its outrage, it was not recognized as the legitimate sovereign government of Taiwan. Of course, the PRC considers Taiwan as an integral part of its territory since it was part of the territory of China during the Civil War. A de facto partition of China was operated and never made official. China hopes to make that de facto state to disappear while the rest of the world and Taiwan hopes to maintain the ambiguous status quo.
I don't need to. I'm just examining rationales, excuses,
goals, & plans. Whether they comport with or violate
international laws doesn't matter to me. (Laws are
often ridiculous.)
Now if they contracted with me to facilitate or mediate,
then I'd do some research. But my phone is silent.
Kooky
Freedom from Sanity
I think you are misreading the Chinese position on this. To my knowledge, the PRC has only ever made threatening gestures when it looked like the government of Taiwan might actually declare independence.
Contrary to popular belief in the US, the PRC and the ROC are actually rather close economically (Taiwan imports most of its goods from the PRC, and in turn invests most of its capital there) and maintain a lucrative and, arguably, mutually beneficial economic partnership that would almost certainly be endangered by both Taiwanese independence and Chinese annexation. That's arguably one reason why Trump's open support for the ROC government raised so much concern in the world of international diplomacy, as it was upsetting a relatively stable but ambiguous situation.