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Water, weather and climate.

wellwisher

Well-Known Member
Water is key to the earth being warm and inhabitable. I am concerned that the current climate models, that fixate on a few green house gases, but does not also stress the importance of water, is half baked and misleading.

For example, water is the only natural substance on earth that exist in all three phases at the same time; gas, liquid and solid. Green house gases, besides water, are one trick ponies; only gases. They lack all the extra features of water, by also being a liquid and a solid. These extra phases bring extra things to the climate table. Water vapor absorbs more heat over a wider spectrum than does CO2. It there was no water in the atmosphere, the earth would freeze, with only CO2, N2 and O2. Clouds, which are part gas and part liquid reverse this, helping cool the solar heating.

For example, hurricanes, which are very powerful weather events, are connected to the phase change of water from gas to liquid. Gaseous water takes up about 1000 time's more volume than does liquid water. When lot of water vapor; gas, condenses into rain; liquid, a vacuum is created in the local atmosphere and a low pressure area forms. This low pressure can then pull more moist air into the atmospheric void, for a self feeding storm.

CO2 is stuck as a gas and is not part of these daily weather dynamics. All the high and low pressure systems in the earth's weather are connect to liquid to gas and gas to liquid phase transitions of water. Cloud, which are the bridge for the transition of water vapor to liquid water, can block the sun and bring down cool water and ice to help offset and cool the earth; hail in the summer.

In a 100-year period, a water molecule spends 98 years in the ocean, 20 months as ice, about 2 weeks in lakes and rivers, and less than a week in the atmosphere. Each day the sun evaporates 1,000,000,000,000 (a trillion) tons of water.

One of the key solid state tricks of water, that also allows our planet not to become an ice ball, is the unique property of solid water expanding when it freezes. This is the most commonly known anomaly of water, that we all have seen; ice cubes in a drink. Most materials in the universe contract when they freeze into a solid. What this expanding of freezing water brings to the table, is it prevents the oceans from freezing solid, preventing the earth from becoming a cold ice ball.

If water contracted when it froze, like most materials, as the early winter water chilled, the cold water would sink downward by convection as warmer water rose up by convection. Once the surface water froze, it too would sink, exposing more liquid water to the surface cold, while snowing down ice, sealing the bottom, that would kill the fish. Over time, the snow and ice on the bottom of the water, would accumulate to where the summers would not be able to melt it, since the warm water of summer would float on the surface and not sink.

However, since water will expand when it freezes, you get an igloo affect that keeps the cold on the surface so it can be reversed by summer. Water has a density maximum at 4C. This is another anomaly of water. At 4C water will expand, whether you chill it or heat it at 4C, since 4C is the maximum density. In the winter, we will also get an initial cold water convection, until the surface water drops to below 4C. The even older 3C water will want to float on the 4C water, ands then freeze to becomes a solid that floats as ice, glaciers and ice bergs. This igloo affect keeps the bulk oceans always above freezing, with the summer heat able to catch up and melt the cold stored in the surface ice.

An important colligative property of water is connected to freeing point depression, which occurs in the salty oceans. The 4C is for pure water, with this number lower in the oceans, than in fresh water lakes. The oceans shifts the density maximum curve downward; lower temperature, allowing the cold to have more affect. However, water still expands, with the igloo affect still active.

When the glaciers melt and fresh water is added to the oceans, since fresh water is lighter; no salt, The freeing point depression reverses causing the igloo affect to occur sooner, so the oceans can warm a few degrees over time. We may be able to cool the earth simply by mixing the surface ocean water from the glacier melt, with the denser deeper ocean water, to reverse the freezing point depression on the surface. This will not require any major change to culture other than large pumps for recirculation and mixing.
 

Heyo

Veteran Member
Water is key to the earth being warm and inhabitable. I am concerned that the current climate models, that fixate on a few green house gases, but does not also stress the importance of water, is half baked and misleading.

For example, water is the only natural substance on earth that exist in all three phases at the same time; gas, liquid and solid. Green house gases, besides water, are one trick ponies; only gases. They lack all the extra features of water, by also being a liquid and a solid. These extra phases bring extra things to the climate table. Water vapor absorbs more heat over a wider spectrum than does CO2. It there was no water in the atmosphere, the earth would freeze, with only CO2, N2 and O2. Clouds, which are part gas and part liquid reverse this, helping cool the solar heating.
Which models do you refer to? For all I know the current models all include water vapour in their calculation as it is the most potent greenhouse gas (by overall mass). But since no more water gets added to the atmosphere, the only question is how much more water will vaporise in a warmer climate. Other gases, especially CO2 have more impact on the change in heat capturing.
And not all greenhouse gases exist only in gaseous form. E.g. methane exists as solid hydrate in permafrost and under the ocean - and can become quite a problem when it's released.
 

The Hammer

[REDACTED]
Premium Member
"Some people mistakenly believe water vapor is the main driver of Earth’s current warming. But increased water vapor doesn’t cause global warming. Instead, it’s a consequence of it. Increased water vapor in the atmosphere amplifies the warming caused by other greenhouse gases."

Steamy Relationships: How Atmospheric Water Vapor Amplifies Earth's Greenhouse Effect – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet.

"It works like this: As greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane increase, Earth’s temperature rises in response. This increases evaporation from both water and land areas. Because warmer air holds more moisture, its concentration of water vapor increases. Specifically, this happens because water vapor does not condense and precipitate out of the atmosphere as easily at higher temperatures. The water vapor then absorbs heat radiated from Earth and prevents it from escaping out to space. This further warms the atmosphere, resulting in even more water vapor in the atmosphere. This is what scientists call a "positive feedback loop." Scientists estimate this effect more than doubles the warming that would happen due to increasing carbon dioxide alone."
 

Twilight Hue

Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
"Some people mistakenly believe water vapor is the main driver of Earth’s current warming. But increased water vapor doesn’t cause global warming. Instead, it’s a consequence of it. Increased water vapor in the atmosphere amplifies the warming caused by other greenhouse gases."

Steamy Relationships: How Atmospheric Water Vapor Amplifies Earth's Greenhouse Effect – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet.

"It works like this: As greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane increase, Earth’s temperature rises in response. This increases evaporation from both water and land areas. Because warmer air holds more moisture, its concentration of water vapor increases. Specifically, this happens because water vapor does not condense and precipitate out of the atmosphere as easily at higher temperatures. The water vapor then absorbs heat radiated from Earth and prevents it from escaping out to space. This further warms the atmosphere, resulting in even more water vapor in the atmosphere. This is what scientists call a "positive feedback loop." Scientists estimate this effect more than doubles the warming that would happen due to increasing carbon dioxide alone."
I think Carl Sagan once said to effect if you want a runaway greenhouse environment real fast, water vapor is a means to do it.
 

The Hammer

[REDACTED]
Premium Member
I think Carl Sagan once said to effect if you want a runaway greenhouse environment real fast, water vapor is a means to do it.

We are already there. Water vapor and all.

Where do the increased storm strengths come from? A Storm is just a movement of water through the air. Stronger, heavier, more frequent storms is because there is more water vapor going airborne.

And now we get to see the full destructive force of one aspect of Thor.

We were warned. We didn't listen.
 

wellwisher

Well-Known Member
Which models do you refer to? For all I know the current models all include water vapour in their calculation as it is the most potent greenhouse gas (by overall mass). But since no more water gets added to the atmosphere, the only question is how much more water will vaporise in a warmer climate. Other gases, especially CO2 have more impact on the change in heat capturing.
And not all greenhouse gases exist only in gaseous form. E.g. methane exists as solid hydrate in permafrost and under the ocean - and can become quite a problem when it's released.

Water, as clouds, impacts heat flow in both directions, to and from earth. Clouds can block solar heating, making the surface heat up slower or less. It is not until the sun burns off the morning fog; water, that the surface starts to heat up. rapidly. At night, clouds prevent surface heat from radiating into space. Frost is more likely to form on a clear night without clouds.

CO2 acts the same way being a two way heat valve, blocking heat from both the earth and the sun. The sun give off a lot of IR radiation within the capture zone of CO2. Burning off fog allows the earth to increase temperature in degree C per minute. CO2 is much gentler, talking a hundred years for one degree even under extreme CO2 release.

Roughly 49% of solar radiation is infrared between 700nm-1mm; about 7% is from ultra-violet between 100-400mm; less than 1% of solar radiation is emitted as x-rays, gamma rays and radio waves.

A higher earth surface temperature, increases the water vapor content in the atmosphere. This means more clouds and therefore more two way moderation by the water. Rain begins in the atmosphere, where the air is cooler, bringing a cooling affect to the surface.

This extra rain, impacts another key part of the earth's water based climate moderation affect; plant life. Plant life absorbs and fixes CO2 and water via photosynthesis. The more CO2 there is in the atmosphere, the higher the potential for plants to grow; capture more CO2. While more plants means more transpiration, which is gives off water into the atmosphere.

One of the most consistent effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on plants is an increase in the rate of photosynthetic carbon fixation by leaves. Across a range of FACE experiments, with a variety of plant species, growth of plants at elevated CO2 concentrations of 475–600 ppm increases leaf photosynthetic rates by an average of 40% (Ainsworth & Rogers 2007).
Using CO2 to enhance plant growth in greenhouses is common practice. Greenhouse gases have more than one use in any greenhouse.

When we sweat, the water that is given off absorbs heat through the phase change of the liquid water to water vapor; evaporation. If you go to Disney World in the summer, they use misters near the long lines in the sun. The water evaporation cools the crowds. This absorption of heat also occur during plant transpiration, which makes the local forest cooler than the nearby city; concrete jungle. When we defoliate, we lose the cooling affect of plants via much less water transpiration. As the world develops and more and more cities appear, the earth warms due to losing the counter affect of plant transpiration and water.

Forest fires play a major role in surface heat. We loose plant transpiration and the rate of CO2 fixation, while also releasing the plant captured CO2. However, the higher CO2 will feedback to the existing plants to speed up regrowth.

Which models do you refer to? For all I know the current models all include water vapour in their calculation as it is the most potent greenhouse gas (by overall mass). But since no more water gets added to the atmosphere, the only question is how much more water will vaporise in a warmer climate. Other gases, especially CO2 have more impact on the change in heat capturing.
And not all greenhouse gases exist only in gaseous form. E.g. methane exists as solid hydrate in permafrost and under the ocean - and can become quite a problem when it's released.

Methane hydrate is a water/methane phase that allows water to bind methane. Water can also bind CO2 to form carbonic acid. These are other ways water can moderate climate; bind greenhouse gases. If both cases of methane and CO2, as the water temperature rises, less methane and CO2 can be absorbed and can even start to release as greenhouse gases.

The heating can be caused by the release of mantle heat, along the tectonic boundaries under the ocean. Recently as major undersea volcano erupted and created a steam plume that increased the water content in the atmosphere. This led to the huge rain storms and summer heat this past summer.

Meanwhile, Tonga expelled a total of 146m tonnes of water, raising the water vapour content of the stratosphere by 10–15%.

Tonga undersea volcano created most intense lightning storm ever recorded

Another affect of the Tonga volcano was it set a record in terms of most lightning flashes even recorded for one event. About 192,000 lightning flashes were seen from space, with much of this lightning connected to the massive amount of water/steam pushed into the atmosphere. The volcano erupted 500 feet below the ocean and lifted water into the stratosphere. That area would have also lost any hydrated or fixed CO2 and Methane back into the atmosphere due to the geothermal heating.
 

Heyo

Veteran Member
Using CO2 to enhance plant growth in greenhouses is common practice. Greenhouse gases have more than one use in any greenhouse.
CO2 enhances plant growth in greenhouses, everything else kept equal. But in the biosphere not everything keeps equal. The higher temperatures due to increased CO2 lead to more droughts and plants reduce their metabolism during heat stress. I.e. climate scientists don't calculate with a negative feedback from plant growth.
 

wellwisher

Well-Known Member
Here is interesting water related tidbit.

Enormous water reservoir found in space is bigger than 140 trillion earth oceans

This reservoir was discovered back in 2011 and is about 12 billion years old.

The water cloud was found to be in the central regions of a faraway quasar.

freestar
“Quasars contain massive black holes that steadily consuming a surrounding disk of gas and dust; as it eats, the quasar spews out amounts of energy,” the Institution continued in its statement.
And a lot of it, I might add. Quasars are the most powerful known entities in space, with this particular one pumping out 1,000 trillion times more energy than our sun, and 65,000 times the whole of the Milky Way. The black hole found at the quasar’s center has a mass 20 billion times greater than the sun.

NASA scientist Matt Bradford has said, “The environment around this quasar is very unique in that it’s producing this huge mass of water. It’s another demonstration that water is pervasive throughout the universe, even at the very earliest times.”
 

exchemist

Veteran Member
Water is key to the earth being warm and inhabitable. I am concerned that the current climate models, that fixate on a few green house gases, but does not also stress the importance of water, is half baked and misleading.
The above is a silly and ignorant statement. Anyone who has read even a small amount about clmate models will know that the role of water vapour, which is itself a powerful greenhouse gas, is central to how they work.

The point is that the amount of water in the atmosphere is, or should be, in overall equilibrium with that in the oceans, via the balance between evaporation and rainfall. It is when extra greenhouses gases are added, which are persistent and are not regulated by a natural equilibrating process, that we get a warming effect.

A key feature of the models is that, while the direct warming effects of CO2, CH4 etc are relatively minor in themselves, the heating they cause increases the amount of water vapour in atmosphere. This greatly magnifies the greenhouse effect. The role of water is thus to act as a powerful amplifier for the heating effect caused by the greenhouses gases that mankind adds to the atmosphere.

The reason people don't talk about water vapour all the time is thus obvious: it is not the cause of the problem.

It is rather tiresome to be given a rambling lecture from somebody who has not bothered to do the basic reading on the subject he is pontificating about. (I am assuming, charitably, that the OP is written out of ignorance rather than being a deliberate attempt at disinformation from a climate change denier;).)
 
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Ebionite

Well-Known Member
The higher temperatures due to increased CO2 lead to more droughts
Bollocks. The role of CO2 as a greenhouse gas decreases with increasing concentration. The dominant greenhouse gas is water vapour, not CO2.
 

wellwisher

Well-Known Member
The above is a silly and ignorant statement. Anyone who has read even a small amount about clmate models will know that the role of water vapour, which is itself a powerful greenhouse gas, is central to how they work.

The point is that the amount of water in the atmosphere is, or should be, in overall equilibrium with that in the oceans, via the balance between evaporation and rainfall. It is when extra greenhouses gases are added, which are persistent and are not regulated by a natural equilibrating process, that we get a warming effect.

A key feature of the models is that, while the direct warming effects of CO2, CH4 etc are relatively minor in themselves, the heating they cause increases the amount of water vapour in atmosphere. This greatly magnifies the greenhouse effect. The role of water is thus to act as a powerful amplifier for the heating effect caused by the greenhouses gases that mankind adds to the atmosphere.

The reason people don't talk about water vapour all the time is thus obvious: it is not the cause of the problem.

It is rather tiresome to be given a rambling lecture from somebody who has not bothered to do the basic reading on the subject he is pontificating about. (I am assuming, charitably, that the OP is written out of ignorance rather that being a deliberate attempt at disinformation from a climate change denier;).)
In terms of the water balance in the atmosphere and ocean, the under water Tonga volcano in 2022, added a lot of extra water to the atmosphere that is not normally part of the atmosphere. The record heat and rains of this past year, was not predicted by the CO2 models, but is being attributed to it by fake news. This extra water from Tonga added to the water 's short term greenhouse affect, until the balance was restored through the heavy rains; atmospheric river. One residual was water increase the hole in the ozone layer. Below in the quote the "erupted" blue link has a satellite video of the eruption.

When the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano erupted on Jan. 15, 2022, it sent a tsunami racing around the world and set off a sonic boom that circled the globe twice. The underwater eruption in the South Pacific Ocean also blasted an enormous plume of water vapor into Earth’s stratosphere – enough to fill more than 58,000 Olympic-size swimming pools. The sheer amount of water vapor could be enough to temporarily affect Earth’s global average temperature.

“We’ve never seen anything like it,” said Luis Millán, an atmospheric scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. He led a new study examining the amount of water vapor that the Tonga volcano injected into the stratosphere, the layer of the atmosphere between about 8 and 33 miles (12 and 53 kilometers) above Earth’s surface.

In the study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, Millán and his colleagues estimate that the Tonga eruption sent around 146 teragrams (1 teragram equals a trillion grams) of water vapor into Earth’s stratosphere – equal to 10% of the water already present in that atmospheric layer. That’s nearly four times the amount of water vapor that scientists estimate the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines lofted into the stratosphere.

That volcano showed the significance of geology sources in terms of climate change. There is also lots of subsurface heating. My guess is El Niño, which has been around for at least 400 years, which still impacts global climate, is fed by geological heating. It vent appears to be cooling. There is also a number of large volcanos around the world that have become active, with one very close to Antarctica.

In a more recently discovery, which I predicted decades ago, scientists found a layer of water outside the earth's iron core; e-layer. The large hydrated water below the mantle has been known for some time. The earth's core water appears to be precipitating silica and possibly diamond crystals; new phase diagram of the e-layer that now includes this water. Water is continuous from core to atmosphere so even the climate should be able to feel core affects.

Water leaking into Earth's core may have birthed a mysterious layer that churns out crystals.

Their theory of how the water got there is naive. The solubility of water into minerals and minerals into water increases with increasing temperature and pressure. The natural direction of confined water inside the earth is toward the core since this increases entropy and fulfills the 2nd law. This sense of direction can be observed growing crystals in hydrothermal chambers. Also growing synthetic diamonds with hot presses can be done with graphite, water and an iron catalysis. This may be the mechanism of the diamond creation in the e-layer.

Water at the conditions of the iron core will rust the iron core and release electrons and heat. While the continuity of water to the atmosphere and solar evaporation, which makes the atmosphere positive, is a connected solar drive, that brings the released electrons to the surface and atmosphere; lightning. The oceans are alkaline or slightly negative.
 

Audie

Veteran Member
In terms of the water balance in the atmosphere and ocean, the under water Tonga volcano in 2022, added a lot of extra water to the atmosphere that is not normally part of the atmosphere. The record heat and rains of this past year, was not predicted by the CO2 models, but is being attributed to it by fake news. This extra water from Tonga added to the water 's short term greenhouse affect, until the balance was restored through the heavy rains; atmospheric river. One residual was water increase the hole in the ozone layer. Below in the quote the "erupted" blue link has a satellite video of the eruption.



That volcano showed the significance of geology sources in terms of climate change. There is also lots of subsurface heating. My guess is El Niño, which has been around for at least 400 years, which still impacts global climate, is fed by geological heating. It vent appears to be cooling. There is also a number of large volcanos around the world that have become active, with one very close to Antarctica.

In a more recently discovery, which I predicted decades ago, scientists found a layer of water outside the earth's iron core; e-layer. The large hydrated water below the mantle has been known for some time. The earth's core water appears to be precipitating silica and possibly diamond crystals; new phase diagram of the e-layer that now includes this water. Water is continuous from core to atmosphere so even the climate should be able to feel core affects.

Water leaking into Earth's core may have birthed a mysterious layer that churns out crystals.

Their theory of how the water got there is naive. The solubility of water into minerals and minerals into water increases with increasing temperature and pressure. The natural direction of confined water inside the earth is toward the core since this increases entropy and fulfills the 2nd law. This sense of direction can be observed growing crystals in hydrothermal chambers. Also growing synthetic diamonds with hot presses can be done with graphite, water and an iron catalysis. This may be the mechanism of the diamond creation in the e-layer.

Water at the conditions of the iron core will rust the iron core and release electrons and heat. While the continuity of water to the atmosphere and solar evaporation, which makes the atmosphere positive, is a connected solar drive, that brings the released electrons to the surface and atmosphere; lightning. The oceans are alkaline or slightly negative.
Rusting the earths core might not even make it
to " coast to coast".
 
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exchemist

Veteran Member
In terms of the water balance in the atmosphere and ocean, the under water Tonga volcano in 2022, added a lot of extra water to the atmosphere that is not normally part of the atmosphere. The record heat and rains of this past year, was not predicted by the CO2 models, but is being attributed to it by fake news. This extra water from Tonga added to the water 's short term greenhouse affect, until the balance was restored through the heavy rains; atmospheric river. One residual was water increase the hole in the ozone layer.
You forget that volcanoes also emit huge clouds of particulates and, notably, sulphate aerosols, which cause their eruptions to have typically a net cooling effect on the climate: https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/42/what-do-volcanoes-have-to-do-with-climate-change/

As for the weather this year, it is not the job of clmate models to predict weather. They make no predictions about specific years at all. It's just not what they are for. What we have that makes this year's weather special is an El Niño event, which is something else entirely.

This is just more climate denial disinformation, pouring out of your arse. :laughing:
 

Valjean

Veteran Member
Premium Member
We are already there. Water vapor and all.

Where do the increased storm strengths come from? A Storm is just a movement of water through the air. Stronger, heavier, more frequent storms is because there is more water vapor going airborne.

And now we get to see the full destructive force of one aspect of Thor.

We were warned. We didn't listen.
If you add more energy to a system, expect more energetic results. Add more heat (energy) to the atmosphere, and you' get more 'energetic' weather events.
 

Ebionite

Well-Known Member
Where did you get that information?
You may want to have a look at Droughts and Climate Change | U.S. Geological Survey to learn something before you embarrass yourself when you answer.
117504ca30edf8b6.jpg
 

Heyo

Veteran Member
CO2 Coalition - Wikipedia

So, we have a right wing, petrol industry funded "think" tank, specialised on climate change denial.
And we have an Ebionite who can't read their bull****. You realise that what you cited, while technically correct, doesn't refute the fact that an elevated temperature increases the chance for droughts or the fact that elevated levels of CO2 increases temperature?
 
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