Agreed, but also number of severe illnesses is resonably whe compared as a ratio whi fatalies over time.
Many predict a second wave in the Fall. I will hold off on a prediction of a resurgence of COVID19 in the Fall, because of unknowns as to the nature of this coronavirus..
I will make the prediction of a second hump in June or early July of cases and deaths that parallel other large countries, and some small countries that are not isolated like large islands. Relaxing measures like social distancing may cause a greater number of cases and fatalities, but the pattern of the curve is dependent on the virus. There will be a long gradual recovery agrivated by a lack of uniform measures to control the spread of the infection.
I have problems with the count of the number of cases, because of the problems of testing being consistent over time. The increase in testing distorts the curve over time. It is likely that early and the middle in the pandemic the number of actual total cases was 50 to 80% higher, and the more recent curve is more accurate, because of the high number of asymptomatic and lightly infected. Taking this into consideration the actual bell curve of the infection history would have a more uniform symmetry with a much higher peak.
The better estimates documenting the history of the corona virus is the number of confirmed severe cases and the fatalities over time. I consider this a good sampling over time, but not necessarily accurate, because of many countries not providing accurate counts for political reasons like: Brazil, China, and Russia. Even though the numbers are not always accurate the bell curve of the history of the COVID 19 is consistent world wide for larger and medium countries..
Smaller isolated countries with uniform populations and good testing, like New Zealand, Taiwan and Australia show a more symmetrical uniform curve of the corona virus history.