Update on COVID 19 virus thread

[shunyadragon]

Those who think we have reached the peak, or that we are defeating the virus. Think again, as in Trumps motto "we are in control" and do not think, a new high, half of the new infections in the world were in the USA; 48,529 and the world total is 99,968: Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) - Statistics and Research

 

[Lyndon]

the world total is over 200,000 and the USA total is about 55,000 deaths

 

[sun rise]

I think as a nation we're getting close to peak but are in danger of having another surge by reopening too soon.

 

[shunyadragon]

I think as a nation we're getting close to peak but are in danger of having another surge by reopening too soon.

More daily data is making the progress of the CVOD 19 pandemic clearer. The USA is over the hump of the peak in late April, and in gradual recovery like China did and recovered, and France and other European countries. Russia's bumpy peak will be in a week or so. The paths of the viruses are closely related to when each region or country was first infected, and they are approaching the peak and going over in the order they were infected.

See this cite for the latest data: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...HN+FRA+DEU+KOR.

 

[Lyndon]

USA had 27,000 new case and 2400 deaths today, hardly over any peak in fact right at the peak, opening up the economy now is going to be a complete disaster.

 

[shunyadragon]

USA had 27,000 new case and 2400 deaths today, hardly over any peak in fact right at the peak, opening up the economy now is going to be a complete disaster.

Check out the graphs and the figures closely on the site. It is painfully high, but the 27,000 new cases and 2400 new deaths indicates part of the gradual decline over the past week. We are in decline as is France, Italy, Germany and Spain. Russia ha snot reached the peak and there numbers are still going up.

Australia and New Zealand have recovered with the exception of isolated cases, and the figures show a more uniform bell curve, because they are more isolated island nations.Likewise China has recovered, and Japan and South Korea have nearly recovered.

 

[PoetPhilosopher]

Could it be that some states reach peak later? Illinois hasn't really leveled off as fast as New York has lately.

 

[Lyndon]

Check out the graphs and the figures closely on the site. It is painfully high, but the 27,000 new cases and 2400 new deaths indicates part of the gradual decline over the past week. We are in decline as is France, Italy, Germany and Spain. Russia ha snot reached the peak and there numbers are still going up.

Australia and New Zealand have recovered with the exception of isolated cases, and the figures show a more uniform bell curve, because they are more isolated island nations.

total BS America is at peak, NYC is declining, not hardly anywhere else, Italy and Spain are down 50-60% USA is nowhere near their level of reduction, in fact there is no reduction at all. Your link may not be accurate, I use world-o meter

 

[PoetPhilosopher]

total BS America is at peak, NYC is declining, not hardly anywhere else, Italy and Spain are down 50-60% USA is nowhere near their level of reduction, in fact there is no reduction at all. Your link may not be accurate, I use world-o meter

I'll give a strong benefit of a doubt. I have heard that more testing is being done now, which would lead to more positive cases as a result.

 

[shunyadragon]

total BS America is at peak, NYC is declining, not hardly anywhere else, Italy and Spain are down 50-60% USA is nowhere near their level of reduction, in fact there is no reduction at all. Your link may not be accurate, I use world-o meter

My site is far more comprehensive with daily updates for the whole world. I will stick with my reference. Last week the USA had fatalities over 3,000, and one day over 4,000. Actually NYC is recovering. It is states like Florida and Georgia with increasing cases and fatalities, because they were infected late.

For the recovery of NYC see the following site and graphs:COVID-19: Data - NYC Health. Even though NYC is recovering there data problems were previous deaths were under reported.

Data Collection Differences
The State Department of Health reports data on deaths from:

• The State Hospital Emergency Response Data System
• Daily calls to hospitals and other facilities that are caring for patients, such as nursing homes

The NYC Health Department reports data that reflect both:

• Positive tests for COVID-19 confirmed by laboratories
• Confirmations of a person’s death from the City’s Office of the Chief Medical Examiner and our Bureau of Vital Statistics, which is responsible for the registration, analysis and reporting of all deaths in the city.

Due to the time required by the City to confirm that a death was due to COVID-19, the City’s reported total for any given day is usually lower than the State’s number.

Daily Counts
This chart shows the number of positive cases by diagnosis date, hospitalizations by admission date and deaths by date of death from COVID-19 on a daily basis since March 3.

Hover over bars to see exact values.

Due to delays in reporting,
recent data are incomplete.

 

[shunyadragon]

I'll give a strong benefit of a doubt. I have heard that more testing is being done now, which would lead to more positive cases as a result.

There is still an over all decline in the USA and New York City, but yes it will be a long slow recovery.

 

[Lyndon]

Yeah I bet you believe 4400 people died today in UK too, those numbers are nothing, peak in USA was 2800 a few days ago, the 4000 was when they added extra deaths from previous weeks your data is way off

 

[shunyadragon]

Yeah I bet you believe 4400 people died today in UK too, those numbers are nothing, peak in USA was 2800 a few days ago, the 4000 was when they added extra deaths from previous weeks your data is way off

Show the graphs over time to demonstrate your claim. As referenced the pandemic in the USA and NYC is on the path of recovery a slow rocky path, but recovery nonetheless,

 

[Lyndon]

United States Coronavirus: 1,064,533 Cases and 61,668 Deaths - Worldometer if you scroll down to the graph of daily deaths you'll see clearly that we are still at peak and have been for about 3 weeks

 

[shunyadragon]

United States Coronavirus: 1,064,533 Cases and 61,668 Deaths - Worldometer if you scroll down to the graph of daily deaths you'll see clearly that we are still at peak and have been for about 3 weeks

The key is new cases, and if you look at new cases the average curve of the new cases is downward.form in the over 30,000 average 14 to 10 days ago to ~24,000 now. The rate of daily fatalities lag and reflect cases one to three weeks ago. Look at the graphs, and they show the decline in cases in most countries, except those that were infected late like Russia.

 

[shunyadragon]

United States Coronavirus: 1,064,533 Cases and 61,668 Deaths - Worldometer if you scroll down to the graph of daily deaths you'll see clearly that we are still at peak and have been for about 3 weeks

Emphasis again the deaths are not the best indicator, because they lag number of cases. It is new cases that indicate the curve of the virus progress. The curve of the daily new viruses is decreasing.

I originally predicts a peak period, between late April and early May, and a decline in May and June. If you look at the graphs the peak in new cases is late April. It is a jagged peak with ups and down, but nonetheless the peak.

 

[Lyndon]

deaths are a much more accurate number as new cases depends totally on the level of testing which is changing constantly

 

[shunyadragon]

deaths are a much more accurate number as new cases depends totally on the level of testing which is changing constantly

Simply no, deaths only reflect a portion of previous cases a week or more after infection. The case count will depend on testing, but more important on those who are documented as ill from infection and can be reasonably documented as infected. I believe the case count is not absolutely accurate, but as far as a relative count over all it is a good measure. The unknown question are those that show no signs to mildly infected and do not pursue testing.

'Arguing from ignorance' will not get you anywhere until you come up with a better way to count the cases of those infected, and the fatalities at present reflect an unknown percentage of those previously infected.

 

[Wandering Monk]

Wondering of slowing the exposure rate might increase heard immunity without overwhelming hospitals.

Need to be very diligent in identifying and protecting vulnerable.

 

[shunyadragon]

Wondering of slowing the exposure rate might increase heard immunity without overwhelming hospitals.

Need to be very diligent in identifying and protecting vulnerable.

I agree with this strategy, but it is terribly inconsistent in the USA.