The Amount of Covid-19 infections are skyrocketing in the world

[Truthseeker]

According to the Institute for Health and Evaluation the number of daily infections from Covid-19 were about 2.6 millions in the world on November 19th, and is projected to rise to about 38 million at the end of January. The good news is that it is projected to go down to about 13.4 on April 1st. The previous peak was about 13.2 million.

However, the number of daily deaths was about 11.5 thousands deaths at about the end of November and will rise to about 17.3 thousands deaths at the end of January. Presumably this is because more people are vaccinated and perhaps the omicron is milder. On May 6, the number of estimated daily deaths was about 48.5 thousand.

This estimate was provided on December 21st. I had been waiting since November 17th for this update. It took much longer than usual because the omicron variation had to be evaluated.

 

[Truthseeker]

Okay, I guess the moderators here don't trust this is from a reliable source. Here's the link to it:

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

On all graphs on this site click on the x for all but projection for each category and you'll get the information I got. For instance where it says severe omicron, click on the x to the right of that word. If you want to you can keep all of the scenarios in play you can do that, but I haven't been doing that.

 

[Truthseeker]

Also if you hit map on the top right corner after selecting a country then hit world on the drop down menu, you get a colored map you get the number per 100,000 within the category. Right now, the highest number projected for today December 29th for deaths in the world is in Zimbabwe. It shows at the same time the lower and higher limits it could be.

There are total deaths and reported deaths. Total deaths is the estimate that have really died in their estimates. I should have clarified earlier that this where I got the death figures. That is also why they pick Zimbabwe as the highest deaths per 100,000. If you move the date to April 1st, which is the limit of their projection, then Syria has the highest number per 100,000. Note they are some countries where it indicated there is no data. One is China.

If you move it to January 30th, the highest daily deaths is in Poland.

 

[Truthseeker]

The IHME tries to update every two weeks. It makes it a little out of date now, since the last projection was still on December 21st, but I'll report the projections the next time it is updated. The projections do change over time, that is science at work. That would make the next projection on January 4th unless it is delayed by something unforeseen, like earlier because the omicron variant was not understood well enough to make a decent projection. Note that in each projection there are higher and lower bounds in the projection.

I'm just passing along information, and you can make your own judgement.

Don't know if people are reading this, but I'll do my part. This thread was just approved today, which is my fault, not the staff's.

 

[Kenny]

According to the Institute for Health and Evaluation the number of daily infections from Covid-19 were about 2.6 millions in the world on November 19th, and is projected to rise to about 38 million at the end of January. The good news is that it is projected to go down to about 13.4 on April 1st. The previous peak was about 13.2 million.

However, the number of daily deaths was about 11.5 thousands deaths at about the end of November and will rise to about 17.3 thousands deaths at the end of January. Presumably this is because more people are vaccinated and perhaps the omicron is milder. On May 6, the number of estimated daily deaths was about 48.5 thousand.

This estimate was provided on December 21st. I had been waiting since November 17th for this update. It took much longer than usual because the omicron variation had to be evaluated.

Do the figures include Omicron variant?

 

[Truthseeker]

Do the figures include Omicron variant?

Of course. Look at my second post and you'll find a link there to the site. It's awkward I know, I should have included that link in the first post. I also clarify how I got the numbers I provide in my first post in my second and third post. Really a half-assed operation wouldn't you say? If you want to you choose the more severe scenario of omicron you can do so. As a matter of I should have done this and then reported the numbers.

At the end of November, the number of estimated daily deaths will rise to about 25,761 on February 16th if the omicron is severe. If it's not severe it will rise to about 17,230 at the end of January. This is what they expect, this is what they call the projection. Severe omicron is not what they expect, it is worse. To be clear estimated deaths is not confirmed deaths but what they believe the number of deaths to be.

Severity of omicron affects very little estimated infections.

 

[Kenny]

Okay, I guess the moderators here don't trust this is from a reliable source. Here's the link to it:

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

On all graphs on this site click on the x for all but projection for each category and you'll get the information I got. For instance where it says severe omicron, click on the x to the right of that word. If you want to you can keep all of the scenarios in play you can do that, but I haven't been doing that.

It is good to know that "daily deaths" is on a decline.

 

[Truthseeker]

New data today, a little late. I was expecting it on January 4th.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

The number of estimated cases will peak on January 13th, in contrast to the earlier projection of it peaking about January 30th or 31st. That's only a few days away! The high is 81 million approximately. Unfortunately that high is a lot higher than 38 million on the last estimation on December 21st. The amount today was about 77 million. That's scientific guesstimation for you. It can be very wrong. This is the estimated infections not the confirmed infections. Then the number of infections will rapidly go down to 9.7 million on April 1st. That is lower than 13.4 million in the last report, I presume because of so many people being infected now, so they will have more natural immunity. It will continue to go down to 4.15 million by May 1st, the new limit to which they are projecting.

The number of total deaths, not confirmed deaths is now projected to be 16.1 million on February 2nd. So the number of deaths go down from 17.3 million. A paradox. Don't understand this one. Probably omicron is seen to be milder than the last estimation? On April 1st the estimated number of deaths is about 2.9 million. I didn't report the estimated number of deaths on April 1st, an oversight on my part. Still, that's good news! By May 1st, it is projected to be about 1.1 million! That's as low as the middle of March, 2020!

So, overall, in the future, it is projected that things will go well.

 

[Truthseeker]

Would like to examine the situation in the United States, since that is my country.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Daily total deaths will peak at about 2,250 on January 24th. That's roughly the peak in late September 2021. The highest peak was about 4,000 a day in January 2021. It will go all the way down to about 8.5 a day by May 1st. This very good news. It's about what it was in March 2020.

The peak of estimated infections has already passed on January 6th at 6.2 million. The previous estimated peak was about 500,000 in late December 2020. It is projected there will be a steep decline in infections to about 20,600 by May 1st. That's about the same at the beginning of March 2020.

Bolivia and Angola right now have the highest number of daily deaths per 100,000. At May 1st, Algeria and Belarus are projected to have the highest per capita, but this highest is much less than what Bolivia and Angola have today.

Senegal has the highest number of daily infections right now per 100,000. Yemen will have the highest number of daily infection by this projection on May 1st. Puzzlingly, Venezuela has among the lowest number of daily cases, but on May 1st will have more daily cases than now, and will be among the most per 100,000. The high on May 1st in counties are generally much lower, even in African countries. They have lowest vaccination rate of any area of the world.

 

[Truthseeker]

A report from AlZajeera that confirms the above and why:

The European Medicines Agency, the region’s drug regulator, says the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant across the continent is pushing COVID-19 towards being an endemic disease that humanity can live with.

“With the increase of immunity in population – and with Omicron, there will be a lot of natural immunity taking place on top of vaccination – we will be fast moving towards a scenario that will be closer to endemicity,” Marco Cavaleri, head of vaccine strategy at the Amsterdam-based regulator, told journalists on Tuesday.

Omicron pushing COVID from pandemic to endemic: EU agency

 

[Truthseeker]

I was not expecting this, but there was new projections on January 14th.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

The number of estimated new daily infections in the world already peaked on January 9th at about 132 million. That is higher than 81 million previously reported, which was estimated to happen on January 13th, which at the time was in the future. It has already gone down to about 100 million this morning. It will be down to 1.1 million on May 1st. Before it was 4.15 million on that date. I'm sure that's because of natural immunity because of the very high volume of being infected.

As to estimated deaths there will be 16.6 million deaths at the peak on February 1st. Remember, you get infected and if it's bad you die a few weeks later. That's about the same as 16.1 million on February 2nd. on May 1st, the number of daily deaths will be 327. That is way lower than 1.1 million on the previous projection.

In the United States, the number of hospital beds and ICU beds are more overwhelmed than January 2021. However the number of estimated infections peaked at about January 2nd ay 6.4 million a day. That peak has passed. Today on January 19th it is estimated the number of new infections are 3.8 million. The number of estimated daily deaths has already peaked at about 1,900 on January 14th. That's less than 2,250 on January 24th. It will go down to 4.2 a day by may 1st, even less that 8.5 a day.

Bolivia has the highest estimated death rate today per 100,000. Kazakhstan and Mongolia have the highest infection rates today. China has among the lowest infection rate. They have always clamped down there, plus they want to have as normal Olympics as possible. Everybody, just about, will have much lower infection rates on May 1st. Personally, I doubt that a more transmissible variant than omicron will take over and make things worse. Omicron is already so highly transmissible.

 

[Truthseeker]

The latest update already! It only took a week. This is the January 21st update. They are getting more sure of what's going on apparently.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

The estimated daily deaths are 14, 501 globally on January 22nd. It's January 22nd at least for me in the early morning. Sorry, in my earlier reports I reported wrong, it was in thousands of deaths, not millions of deaths. On January 26th, the peak, it will be about 15,000. This is down from 16,600 on February 1st. Pretty close together. It's go down to about 411 on May 1st. That's up from 327. Still close.

The hospitals I think are pretty swamped right now in the world, similar to May of last year for the world. The death rate then was three times as high approximately. So people go to the hospital at similar rates but more survive.

The number of infections is 6 or 7 timers as high on January 13th or 14th. Much less who get infected end up in the hospital. The infections are 96 million a day estimated. That's down from the earlier estimate of 132 million. 1.4 million on May 1st. Not much different from 1.1 million.

There was about 2086 estimated deaths on January 14th in the US. Not much difference from about 1900. Now it is about 1900. It will be 7.23 on May 1st, up a little from 4.2. Hospitalizations are higher than in January of last year, the previous peak. deaths are down by half from then approximately.

Estimated infections at 7.1 million on January 1st, not much different than the January 14th report. This is about 14 times higher than January of last year. It is already down to 2.6 million. Reported infections seems to be different story. These aren't changing much now. About 25,000 on May 1st.

Cumulated total death per capita is highest in Bolivia on May 1st. The greatest number of daily deaths now is in Bulgaria, followed by Bolivia. Daily deaths on May 1st are low everywhere. Daily infections are high in Iraq.

 

[Truthseeker]

The number of estimated daily infections was about 47 million on January 11th in the world on February 4th. The earlier estimate for January 13th was 96 million. That estimate was delivered on January 21st. So things in the past were not as bad as they thought. Remember, this is estimated infections, not confirmed infections. On May 1st, it will be 4 million by this estimate. Higher than 1.4 earlier reported. I believe what this is saying that there will be less herd immunity because the estimated infections were less than they thought. But by June 1st, the number will be 1.7 million by this estimate. The number of infections are still abating.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

On today, February 5th, there about 16,800 deaths estimated. The number deaths are going down globally. It was 18,000 on January 26th. it is estimated to be 1,860 on May 1st. That's up from 411 estimated on January 21st for May 1st. But 565 by June 1st by today's estimate. So it is going down slower than expected before but it is still going down.

There were estimated 2,822 deaths on January 27th in the US, the peak. The peak is estimated later than January 14th from before. The number of deaths is up from 2086. Deaths are at 80 at May 1st. It was 7.3 before. Things are going worse than expected all around. On June 1st it will be about 37. Still, things are estimated to get better.

The worst daily death per capita is little Bulgaria. The worst infections per capita are Iran and Afghanistan. Yet Bulgaria infections are about half of their rate. By June 1st, the death rate drops dramatically all around. The number if infections on that date is not very high, but it is highest in South Africa. The highest total deaths are in Bolivia per capita. On June 1st, it is close between Bolivia and Bulgaria. Surprisingly little cumulate deaths in Sub-Saharan Africa except the southern part. Why with so little vaccinations there?

This is a projection, so there may be surprises between now and June.

 

[Truthseeker]

Sorry, I'm late. The latest projection was on February 17th.

The estimated infections now looks like a roller coaster for the world. On January 11th they were about 49 million, then it went down to 23.4 million on February 14th. Then it will go up to 50.8 million on March 5th. Then it falls steeply to 2.4 million on June 1st. A big reason for this is China. On January 30th, it was estimated to be 8 thousand. By March 6th it is estimated there will be 37.8 million. By June 1st it will be 169,000. I am supposing this because hardly anyone has been infected so far there, so they have no natural immunity, and I've heard their vaccines aren't very good.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

The estimated death toll was 22.1 thousand per day on February 4th. Another roller coaster, because of China. 9.5 thousand by March 15th. 21.8 thousand by March 29th. 1.75 thousand by June 1st.

It's less complicated in the case of the US. 3,000 estimated deaths on January 31st. Today it is 1,400. 34 on June 1st.

As to infections, on January 2nd it was 4.8 million estimated. Today it is 517,000. By June 1st it is 32.7 thousand.

 

[Riders]

Yes, it's skyrocketing which is scary, however, aren't some of these cases mild cases that are not that bad?

 

[Truthseeker]

Yes, it's skyrocketing which is scary, however, aren't some of these cases mild cases that are not that bad?

You are misled by my opening post and title. The number of cases is now going down fast except it will skyrocket in China soon according to the projection.